'The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028': Gartner predicts that budget computers are on borrowed time

Opinion By Darren Allan published 23 hours ago

Budget laptops 'face obsolescence' thanks to the RAM crisis

Gartner's new report predicts PC sales will slump by 10.4% this year
The rising cost of RAM could make "low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable"
The analyst firm predicts: "Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028"

For some time, there's been a growing weight of evidence that buying a PC now, rather than waiting, is a very sensible idea to avoid further RAM-fueled price hikes with desktops and laptops - and a fresh prediction from Gartner adds to this pile.

In a new report from the analyst firm (which was spotted by VGC), Gartner observes that 'entry-level PCs face obsolescence' due to the spiking cost of RAM, which is expected to peak this year at 23% of the total bill-of-materials for a PC (on average) - up from 16% in 2025.

The bill-of-materials, known as BOM for short, is the cost of all the components that make up a PC. (From the CPU and GPU plus memory, to the SSD and motherboard, plus all the other trimmings such as fans, connectors, the power supply, and the case or chassis itself).

Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, notes: "This sharp increase removes vendors' ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028."

Atwal further predicts that: "In addition, rising AI PC prices will delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028."

Gartner estimates that PC shipments will drop by 10.4% in 2026 compared to last year as the market weakens (and phone shipments will also drop to the tune of 8.4%, we're told).

By the end of 2026, the analyst firm foresees a 130% rise in RAM and SSD costs, which is going to increase asking prices for PCs by an estimated 17% compared to 2025, Gartner believes - a hefty hike.

Analysis: steepest contraction in PC shipments in over a decade

So, this isn't just going to be a low-end PC problem, and it fully makes sense that the higher-end of the market will take a blow from increased RAM (as well as storage) costs, too. Those devices have more breathing room in terms of their overall cost to make the hikes less impactful, of course.

Still, the broad prediction is that more expensive AI (Copilot+) laptops will lose sales momentum this year and next, not recovering until 2028, alongside the vanishing act, which is apparently going to happen with sub-$500 laptops and desktop PCs.

It's a believable enough prediction, sadly, and even if those budget PCs don't entirely disappear, I'd put money on them being much thinner on the ground as 2026 rolls onwards. HP has already said that the cost of RAM has shot up for its laptops, and indeed, the manufacturer told us that the chunk that system memory takes out of the total bill-of-materials has doubled in the space of a quarter. That's a frightening revelation, frankly, and one that more than backs up the idea that Gartner is putting forward here.

Those who feel they may need a new laptop in the near future, then, might be advised to start looking to buy one now - especially if they're searching towards the budget end of the market.

There's another prospect, of course. Rather than upgrading, people will just hold on to their existing PC for longer.

As Atwal observes: "This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles."

Gartner theorizes that holdouts waiting for PC pricing to calm down will likely mean that the average lifetime of a device will be extended by some 20% for consumers by the end of the year (and 15% for business buyers). That could mean folks keeping hold of outdated laptops running Windows 10, of course, with no updates in place (after extended support expires in October 2026) and a raft of security risks to face therein.

Whichever way you look at it, the outlook for the PC market is pretty gloomy.


https://www.techradar.com/computing/laptops/the-sub-usd500-entry-level-pc-segme nt-will-disappear-by-2028-gartner-predicts-that-budget-computers-are-on-borrowe d-time

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

... and counter-point.

No, the sub-$500 PC market will not disappear by 2028 - Au contraire, I expect it to thrive. Here's why

Opinion By Desire Athow published 22 hours ago

The sub-$500 PC market is huge and yet Gartner wants us to believe that it will disappear within 100 weeks

Gartner, the analyst firm that once predicted Windows Phone would take over the iPhone by 2015 and said that the personal computer would wither the same year (because of tablets), now wants us to believe that the sub-$500 PC will disappear by 2028.

I bet some serious NFT* money that this won't materialize as this price bracket accounts for about a third of the total addressable market. (*oh wait, that was another Gartner prediction that didn't happen).

The argument that Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, put forward is that prices will continue to rise and rise as component producers choose to prioritize higher margin products.

He's not wrong. Memory accounts for more than a third of the BOM (bill of material) of an average PC as prices rose nearly four-fold since November 2025 (and yes, you can blame AI scalpers as well).

Nvidia, AMD, Samsung, SK Hynix, Seagate, Western Digital are doing their utmost to fulfil orders from hyperscalers and AI behemoths. As it stands, demand is currently outstripping supply and will continue in the future but these steep increases will almost entirely be for storage and memory (and discrete video cards to a lesser extent).

Not for processors or power supply units, motherboards, Wi-Fi cards, cables, chassis, everything else that make up the remaining 65% of an average PC BOM. These other components won't see as big of a rise because, well, the demand simply isn't there. Here's another reason why I think why the prediction of Gartner simply won't happen.

Smartphones

You see, smartphones share a lot with an average PC (e.g. LPDDR memory and eMMC storage) with a raft of extra components: cameras, microphone, speaker, modem, accelerometer, battery, screen and so on. Yet, the entry-level smartphone usually costs far less than a similar-specced PC.

For example, the Motorola Moto G Power 5G 2024, retails for $130 with 8GB of RAM and 128GB storage while a mini PC from UDPTCP fetches $150. And yet no one is talking about sub-$500 smartphones going extinct by 2028, that simply won't happen.

While it is true that the share of white box PC manufacturers - brands outside of the big six PC vendors - is rapidly dwindling (hitting 13.9% in 2025), the remaining players, including some of the best mini PC brands around, have adapted and thrived, like mammals in the age of dinosaurs.

Opportunity for China

Which brings us to another variable: China. The current RAM/NAND crisis is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to Chinese memory manufacturers to swoop in at the lower end of the market, filling the gaps that traditional players (Micron, SanDisk, Samsung) used to fill.

We've seen that before: UNISOC, Amlogic, Rockchip, Allwinner (China) and MediaTek, (Taiwanese) did just that when Samsung and Qualcomm moved upstream, leaving the basic system-on-chip market clear for "just-good-enough"
products.

For memory, expect YMTC and CXMT - China's answer to SK-Hynix/Samsung or SanDisk/Micron - to ramp production as fast as they can gleefully. Sure, they won't have the latest technology, but as for system-on-chips, they will be
good enough.

Already, there are reports Apple and others will use products from the aforementioned Chinese companies and I predict that Chinese NAND and memory chips will become common in computers and laptops produced in mainland China.

Don't forget the OS

The third variable I'd like to throw into the conversation is the influence
of Google and Microsoft. Apple's current generation (iPhone 16) tops at 8GB RAM, showing how far its rivals have to go when it comes to memory management within the operating system.

And absolutely no one complains about how sluggish the iPhone 16 is, even with AI features enabled.

If manufacturers are reluctant to release products with more than 8GB of RAM, then expect Microsoft and Google to prioritize improving memory management efficiency in 2026, perhaps, in the case of the Redmond-based company, as early as the next update.

The past two years have been marred by criticism against Microsoft's
propensity to add what many consider as "bloatware" features to its
mainstream Windows 11. My colleagues on TechRadar have expressed their frustration many a time in the past, yearning for a debloated, simpler, streamlined version of Windows 11.

The current RAM-ggedon may make accelerate this.

(as a sidenote, Ranjit Atwal went on record to say that there will not be a Windows 11 and that instead Windows 10 would be upgraded forever)

The need for speed

Entry level computers will become more powerful thanks to Moore's Law and the emergence of new incumbents like Nvidia, MediaTek and Qualcomm. This will not change even if improvements slow down.

Necessity is the mother of all inventions, the saying goes and I foresee the use of forgotten features like RAM compression as used by computers in the 1990s (and in Windows 10 as Compression Store).

Could hardware-based memory compression go mainstream? Both Intel (QAT, IAA) and AMD (RDNA4) have proven mature technologies that they utilized across a breadth of products.

Even if it is not dedicated on-chip silicon, having something/anything to take care of this at the lower end of the market could bring some tangible performance benefits.

In conclusion

No, I don't think new personal computers costing less than $500 will
disappear by December, 31st, 2028. I firmly believe this, like so many others, will be yet another failed Gartner prediction.


https://www.techradar.com/pro/no-the-sub-usd500-pc-market-will-not-disappear-by -2028-au-contraire-i-expect-it-to-thrive-heres-why

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

The analyst firm predicts: "Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level

>PC segment will disappear by 2028"

In a new report from the analyst firm (which was spotted by VGC), Gartner

>observes that 'entry-level PCs face obsolescence' due to the spiking cost of
>RAM, which is expected to peak this year at 23% of the total bill-of-material
>for a PC (on average) . up from 16% in 2025.

You cam understand the cost of RAM going up but those numbers don't really
make sense. 2 years ago I bought an SSD with 256 Gig of RAM for $25.99 Cdn.
Is RAM now or going to start costing 10 or 15 times that much?

This sounds like scare tactics to sell computers Now..

---
* SLMR Rob * I may not always be perfect, but I'm always me
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

Hi Rob,

On 2026-03-06 10:27:09, you wrote to MIKE POWELL:

You cam understand the cost of RAM going up but those numbers don't
really make sense. 2 years ago I bought an SSD with 256 Gig of RAM for $25.99 Cdn. Is RAM now or going to start costing 10 or 15 times that
much?

We use micro SD cards in a product at work. They used to cost about 15 Euros for a 8GB card like half a year ago. This week I got a quote for 78,90 Euros each. So that is almost 5 times as high.


Bye, Wilfred.

--- FMail-lnx64 2.3.2.6-B20251227
* Origin: FMail development HQ (2:280/464)

You cam understand the cost of RAM going up but those numbers don't really make sense. 2 years ago I bought an SSD with 256 Gig of RAM for $25.99 Cdn. Is RAM now or going to start costing 10 or 15 times that much?

This sounds like scare tactics to sell computers Now..

Could certainly be. No doubt, AI demand (and the apparent closing of a facility that made RAM) isn't helping matters.

Mike


* SLMR 2.1a * My wife made me join a bridge club...I jump next week.
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

You cam understand the cost of RAM going up but those numbers don't
really make sense. 2 years ago I bought an SSD with 256 Gig of RAM for $25.99 Cdn. Is RAM now or going to start costing 10 or 15 times that
much?

We use micro SD cards in a product at work. They used to cost about 15 Euros

> a 8GB card like half a year ago. This week I got a quote for 78,90 Euros ea
>So that is almost 5 times as high.

Wow.. I haven't had to buy any SD Cards in a couple of years now but
I've bought 8gig SD cards for what would be about 5.7 Euros.

A quick look at Walmart Canada Online shows 64 gig cards on at
(converted) 10.76 Euros and 128 gigs for 17 Euros. There's even
a 10 pack of 32 gig ones on at 108 Euros and a super deal pack
of ten 256 gig cards for only 78.75 Euros so, unless you are
getting something totally different I'm not sure why your prices
seem to be so high.

All that said, there are some wild price swings for different
makes or through different suppliers TO Walmart so it looks
like they can cost almost anything..

(i.e.. One Sandisk 128 gig for 117.7 Euros)

---
* SLMR Rob * Let me know when something normal happens
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

You cam understand the cost of RAM going up but those numbers don't really

>> make sense. 2 years ago I bought an SSD with 256 Gig of RAM for $25.99 Cdn.
>> Is RAM now or going to start costing 10 or 15 times that much?

This sounds like scare tactics to sell computers Now..

Could certainly be. No doubt, AI demand (and the apparent closing of a

>facility that made RAM) isn't helping matters.

No, it all works against what were rapidly dropping prices a very
few years ago. And it may depend on the exact format the memory
is in. In another note talking about Micro SD Cards prices seemed
ridiculously high in Europe but when I checked current prices here
there were still some in stock super prices.

---
* SLMR Rob * Love is the triumph of imagination over intelligence
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

Hi Rob,

On 2026-03-08 08:07:24, you wrote to me:

We use micro SD cards in a product at work. They used to cost about
15 Euros a 8GB card like half a year ago. This week I got a quote
for 78,90 Euros ea So that is almost 5 times as high.

Wow.. I haven't had to buy any SD Cards in a couple of years now but
I've bought 8gig SD cards for what would be about 5.7 Euros.

A quick look at Walmart Canada Online shows 64 gig cards on at
(converted) 10.76 Euros and 128 gigs for 17 Euros. There's even
a 10 pack of 32 gig ones on at 108 Euros and a super deal pack
of ten 256 gig cards for only 78.75 Euros so, unless you are
getting something totally different I'm not sure why your prices
seem to be so high.

They are "Industrial", with better specs then the regular consumer versions.

All that said, there are some wild price swings for different
makes or through different suppliers TO Walmart so it looks
like they can cost almost anything..

(i.e.. One Sandisk 128 gig for 117.7 Euros)

I think you have to get used to higher prices. Maybe what you are qouting is old stock for old prices?

Bye, Wilfred.

--- FMail-lnx64 2.3.2.6-B20251227
* Origin: FMail development HQ (2:280/464)

Hello Wilfred!

** On Sunday 08.03.26 - 22:16, Wilfred van Velzen wrote to Rob Mccart:

They are "Industrial", with better specs then the regular consumer versions.

Is that for those climate-control facilities, with high humidity?


--- OpenXP 5.0.64
* Origin: My Westcoast Point (1:153/757.21)

Hi August,

On 2026-03-08 22:33:00, you wrote to me:

** On Sunday 08.03.26 - 22:16, Wilfred van Velzen wrote to Rob Mccart:

They are "Industrial", with better specs then the regular consumer
versions.

Is that for those climate-control facilities, with high humidity?

The are for the climate-control computers. Their environment shouldn't be with high humidity, but they should last a long time.


Bye, Wilfred.

--- FMail-lnx64 2.3.2.6-B20251227
* Origin: FMail development HQ (2:280/464)

All that said, there are some wild price swings for different
makes or through different suppliers TO Walmart so it looks
like they can cost almost anything..
(i.e.. One Sandisk 128 gig for 117.7 Euros)

I think you have to get used to higher prices. Maybe what you are qouting is

> stock for old prices?

All I could tell from the ad is that they have them in stock to send
out immediately. The more expensive one above might have been a
higher end card like the ones that you get..

---
* SLMR Rob * When in doubt... No, don't do that either
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)