ACUS11 KWNS 111957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111956=20
UTZ000-NVZ000-112230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Areas affected...much of northern and western Utah into far
east-central Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111956Z - 112230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage along a cold front after
20-21Z, and potentially over southern areas ahead of the front.
Locally severe hail or wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating ahead of
the cold front from NV into UT, with substantial cumulus over the
higher terrain, indicative of the moist air mass. Precipitable water
values are approaching 1.00" over parts of the area, as temperatures
aloft gradually cool with the upper trough.

Thunderstorms are already forming along the front from far northwest
UT into eastern ID, where instability is relatively weak. However,
MUCAPE values will increase through the late afternoon and evening,
with MLCAPE over 750 J/kg expected. Moderate deep-layer shear should
support cellular storm mode, especially with any activity that may
develop over east-central into southwest UT ahead of the front.
Despite a linear forcing mechanism along the front, some of these
cells could potentially remain somewhat cellular as well, with hail
near severe levels possible. Increasing/aggregating outflows will
lead to gusty winds as well.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/11/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7lCNU8yIPrTceQFYv4L1vz1tq_ETA_BOGlRTGdoJ0dyZkJH7l8ID-Fsd0HWwsExflEA4N--c9= 6jtQZ2nhm9szGKB_kY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 41431316 41901246 41771121 40331132 38821173 37421251
37471455 38641463 40151396 41431316=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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