ACUS11 KWNS 131942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131941=20
AZZ000-132145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131941Z - 132145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through
the evening hours. Sporadic hail and severe gusts appear possible.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convective intensity has increased
slightly per GOES IR imagery and lightning trends. This comes as
temperatures on the western periphery of a more expansive cloud
shield continue to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, which is
supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg. The KIWA VWP
continues to sample elongated/straight hodographs with 0-6 km BWD
values on the order of 50 knots. A recent cell split over
south-central AZ provides further evidence of this favorable
kinematic environment. The combination of continued daytime heating,
very weak capping, and orographic ascent should promote an increase
in thunderstorm coverage through the late afternoon and evening
hours. Despite the strong wind shear, modest mid-level lapse rates
and meager forcing for ascent (mainly associated with gradual height
falls ahead of an approaching upper wave) will likely promote
somewhat anemic thunderstorms that exhibit periods of
intensification to near severe limits as they sufficiently deepen to
realize the full kinematic profile. While a few instances of severe
gusts and large hail appear possible - particularly during the 20-00
UTC period - confidence in a widespread/prolonged severe threat
remains limited.

..Moore/Hart.. 10/13/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-FFcbAWCiqhydI5KsldCo4I69sS2O9mtrVRbjpxo4B9GUfJtHY_8-TSSJRtwv1Eeye3oCh6iS= 2GCwhO_a2FOP0BYihs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 35021221 34441061 34171018 33860991 33580988 33180998
32861027 32541071 32421111 32401142 32421181 33071263
33431286 33861310 34321321 34711313 34921292 35021259
35021221=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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