ACUS01 KWNS 051728
SWODY1
SPC AC 051726

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds are possible.

...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad
zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over
the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across eastern Colorado through this evening,
which will promote continued northward transport of low-level
moisture across Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas. A surface dryline will
also extend southward from the low over the southern High Plains.

Multi-layer cloud cover remains semi-prevalent at late morning but
peripheral gradual clearing is noted across parts of western North
Texas as well as along the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. The
strongest heating/mixing will occur in vicinity across far
west/northwest Texas, but it seems probable that storm development
will occur within the somewhat richer moisture near/just east of the
Caprock Escarpment including parts of Low Rolling Plains and
Texas/southwest Oklahoma border vicinity. Such development should
occur by around 4pm-6pm CST as convective temperatures are breached.

Somewhat modest/nebulous large-scale ascent will probably support a
multi-hour period of semi-discrete supercells even if effective
shear is not robust and low-level shear/SRH a bit modest during time
of initial development, but nonetheless steadily strengthening
toward/after 00z/6pm CST. This will include associated threats for
large to very large hail initially, potentially up to 2-3 inches in
diameter. The increasing low-level shear through the evening will
also foster enlarged low-level hodographs and the potential for a
few tornadoes with this activity, potentially including a
spatiotemporal window for a strong (EF2+) tornado even if a more
complex mode is evolving. Over time, convection is forecast to grow
upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves
northeastward into parts of western/northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.

Isolated supercells may also occur along the length of the dryline
across west Texas late this afternoon/evening, with associated
threat for occasional large hail and severe wind gusts. However,
confidence in any more than isolated coverage remains low due to
weak large-scale forcing. Farther north, isolated severe hail may
occur tonight with elevated convection in a low-level warm advection
regime across eastern Nebraska, northwest Missouri into Iowa.

...Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across
the Ohio Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place
along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast
across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to
mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote a
few instances of damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that
develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.

...Florida Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur today across the Florida Peninsula, with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high,
mid-level temperatures (-11 or -12C at 500mb) will remain relatively
cool. Scattered convection appear probable along the western Florida
Peninsula during the afternoon where low-level convergence will be
maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, although
organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081815
SWODY1
SPC AC 081813

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong to locally severe storms capable of
hail may linger across South Texas today.

...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia...
At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing
80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in
the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield
weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development
anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest
buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold
front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given
the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging
gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent
updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain.

...South Texas...
A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may
linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment.
Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be
around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and
latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.

..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090700
SWODY1
SPC AC 090658

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH REGION AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South region and
central Gulf states.

...Mid-South/Central Gulf States...

Weak, low amplitude short-wave trough is currently located over the
southern High Plains. This feature is forecast to advance into
central OK later this morning before shifting into eastern AR by
10/00z, then into the southern Appalachians during the overnight
hours. Despite this short wave, large-scale height rises are
forecast through the period across much of the eastern CONUS. As a
result, LLJ will likely prove instrumental in convective initiation
as low-level warm advection should extend along a corridor from the
southern Plains into the northern Gulf states.

Early this morning, 60F surface dew points were observed into
portions of the Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests mid 60s dew
points will advance to near I40 across AR and these values should
spread into northern MS/AL by late afternoon. Given the strength of
the LLJ currently observed across north-central TX/OK, there is
increasing confidence that elevated convection may develop just
before sunrise across southeast OK. This activity would then
potentially grow upscale as it approaches the MS River. Latest HREF
members generally agree with this scenario and multiple thunderstorm
clusters and possibly an MCS-like cluster could evolve with time.
Strong deep-layer shear favors the potential for supercells, and
hail should be the primary concern with this activity. Severe threat
will spread southeast as thunderstorms spread toward
northern/central AL by late afternoon, potentially into western GA
during the evening.

...Southern AZ...

Strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z, eventually shifting into northwest Mexico, just
south of the AZ border by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates
are forecast across southern AZ within a favorable zone for
large-scale ascent. Profiles suggest scattered convection will
develop and spread north across this region. Some consideration was
given to adding 5 percent severe hail/wind probabilities to this
region, but forecast soundings suggest this activity should struggle
to attain severe levels. Even so, small hail and gusty winds could
accompany the strongest convection.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/09/2026

$$

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