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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0502

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thu Apr 23 18:00:36 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 231800
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231800=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-232000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0502
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

    Areas affected...portions of central/eastern KS into north-central
    OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 231800Z - 232000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21z across parts
    of central Kansas and increase in coverage with time into
    north-central Oklahoma later this afternoon/evening. Very large
    hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are expected. A
    tornado watch will be need in the next hour or so.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating through early afternoon has allow
    temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s across central KS
    into northern OK ahead of a surface dryline. Strengthening southerly
    low-level flow around 20-30 kt near the surface is maintaining low
    to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-9.0
    C/km per OUN and TOP 12z RAOBs). This is supporting MLCAPE near 2000
    J/kg, with additional destabilization expected through afternoon
    with continued heating/moistening. Convergence along the surface
    boundary, coupled with modest height falls and surface pressure
    falls along the I-35 corridor will support rapid thunderstorm
    development this afternoon as a weakening cap erodes.=20

    Vertically veering wind profiles are present in forecast soundings,
    suggesting supercells will be possible. Midlevel flow is forecast to
    increase late this afternoon into evening, resulting in
    enlarge/curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight
    above 2-3 km. Within this thermodynamic and kinematic parameter
    space, expected initial supercells to pose an all-hazards risk,
    particularly across south-central KS into north-central OK. Forecast
    guidance suggests this corridor may be more favorable for
    maintenance of discrete supercells. Further north along the surface
    boundary, convection may tend to grow upscale toward a line during
    the evening, with an accompany increase in severe wind potential in
    addition to a continued tornado/hail risk.

    ..Leitman.. 04/23/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-DSEeqpRk-UJWy4jG2GgNYDhr1E2Iii_tXsQFzzi5CxZbfsDiXR8D4BQvjT48f2lV3-KWKXi5= SM-06QXRAcDkgxIPYQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 38699809 39719754 39959721 39999594 39779529 38569526
    36799597 36499624 36409683 36459743 36609791 36859818
    37399828 37699827 38699809=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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