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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0503

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thu Apr 23 19:38:08 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 231938
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231937=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-232100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0503
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

    Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska and western Iowa and far
    northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 134...

    Valid 231937Z - 232100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 134 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk continues. Storms should increase in
    coverage and intensity through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Across WW 134, a band of strong to severe thunderstorms
    has developed along the modified cold front from far northwestern IA
    into eastern NE. A mix of line segments and supercells has been
    observed so far. Area VADs and 18z RAOBs show the environment
    remains unstable (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) and moderately sheared
    (35-45 kt EBWD), conducive for severe storms. Additional storm
    development is likely through the afternoon as the cold front moves
    eastward. Hail and damaging winds are expected with these storms as
    they continue to mature. While low-level hodographs remain modest,
    surface pressure falls and a mixed mode of supercells and line
    segments will likely support a risk for a couple tornadoes.

    Radar trends and recent CAM guidance suggest the additional storm
    coverage should result in slow upscale growth into one or more
    linear clusters. With a transition to a more linear mode, the
    damaging gust threat would likely increase, along with the potential
    for embedded tornadoes through the afternoon hours. Given this, the
    severe risk continues over much of WW134.

    ..Lyons.. 04/23/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bdYyhW1Qm9HHrjkvTCmv5EQo8nrSTch6TTkm2-xUMLFxKptxYTLsctsG_W1z3BRs9BkYpMxU= 9KN0E0rSzC3PDcSdjI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 40109733 41799626 43519554 43529471 43509354 43009345
    42419369 40829403 40399477 40189520 40069561 40109733=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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