ACUS11 KWNS 232003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232002=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-232230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...central OK into western North TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 232002Z - 232230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected across north-central OK
this evening. Further south, from central OK into western North TX,
a more conditional risk is expected. A tornado watch may be needed
for portions of OK into western north TX in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating across the region has resulted in
warming into the low/mid 80s to the east of the dryline, with low
90s noted just west of the dryline, which is oriented from northwest
OK into western north TX. East of the dryline, low-level moistening
is resulting in surface dewpoints in the 64-68 F range. Midlevel
lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km per SPC Mesoanalysis and 18z LMN
RAOB are contributing to strong instability across the warm sector
(near 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Within this environment, supercell
wind profiles will support severe storms capable of very large hail,
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. This is most likely across
north-central OK this evening.

A more conditional severe/tornado risk exists from central OK into
western north TX. Weak capping across this area and more modest
large-scale ascent may preclude thunderstorm development. However,
modified forecast soundings based on current observations suggest
convective temperatures will be reached. Furthermore, developing
cumulus along the dryline suggests deeper dryline circulations may
further erode capping. While high resolution forecast guidance/CAMs
have varied throughout the day, most have suggested at least one or
two attempts at convective initiation anywhere from near the Red
River toward central OK in the 22-02z time frame. While this risk is conditional, the environment will be very supportive for very large
hail, a tornado or two, and severe gusts.=20

Trends will be monitored, and a tornado watch may be needed for
portions of OK in the next few hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6GOnZWd-va1ZaI1R3dzhVjC6x82SzBsq6K-lT7Eqnq6HKu1orlYH2zLX-OO7VoRxnPuv5MYMq= OzqD0gDYxNrombZys0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33459856 33579892 33849905 34569901 35549862 36469827
36959802 37009774 36979695 36929683 36339671 35749673
35429678 35319681 34149729 33729757 33469807 33479826
33459856=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at [email protected] and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)