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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0507

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thu Apr 23 22:05:06 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 232205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232204=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-240000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0507
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

    Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska into far northern Missouri and
    central Iowa

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 134...

    Valid 232204Z - 240000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 134 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards will spread east over
    the next 2-4 hours into central Iowa and far northern Missouri.
    Trends will be monitored for the need for downstream watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Across western IA, a convective band is showing signs
    of intensification with a low to mid-level wind surge noted within
    portions of the line - possibly the early stages of a rear inflow
    jet. Downstream of this band, mid-level lapse rates remain fairly
    steep (around 8 C/km), which may contribute to some intensification
    of the line and an increasing wind threat downstream into central IA
    over the coming hours.=20

    Further south, a supercell with a history of producing severe hail
    continues to show signs of intensification with an established
    mesocyclone now apparent in KOAX velocity data. This cell will
    continue to pose a threat for severe hail as well as tornadoes
    (including the potential for a strong tornado) as it moves
    downstream into southwest IA/northwest MO over the next 1-2 hours.
    Continued clustering and upscale growth along the front may limit
    the tornado and hail potential beyond the 23-00 UTC time frame.

    Later this evening, a weakening trend is anticipated as convection
    migrates into a region with stronger capping and diminishing
    deep-layer wind shear. However, some severe threat will likely
    persist beyond 00 UTC across central, and perhaps portions of
    eastern, IA. Downstream watch issuance is anticipated in the coming
    hours as this activity approaches the eastern bounds of WW 134.

    ..Moore.. 04/23/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ZkcUAlm1G1xmoOV3pxW4KWaiiIGOjkBiV3MYx_EqsWVfVSUhBJj8LxEUGfmfVxLMCv7GC0M2= L7WAvQBghF4GOwLRKo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

    LAT...LON 40269647 40879575 41849511 42619486 43189447 43439351
    43449256 43319235 43029223 42599227 41989248 41429276
    40959311 40489351 40269406 40159475 40169583 40129617
    40269647=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)