ACUS11 KWNS 232256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232256=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135...

Valid 232256Z - 240100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe hail threat continues for southern portions of WW
135 - predominantly across southeastern Minnesota and parts of
western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection along and north of the
I-94 corridor has largely maintained intensity or weakened per Prob
Severe and MRMS metrics. This may be attributable to diminishing
buoyancy amid convective overturning, which is noted in recent RAP
mesoanalysis 700-500 mb lapse rate analyses. However, across
southeastern MN and western WI, a buoyant air mass remains in place
with around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE residing across the region. Upstream
convection coming out of northern IA has recently shown an uptick in
intensity (GOES IR temps and lightning counts) as it migrates into
this air mass. Semi-discrete convection will pose a large hail
threat for the near term, but continued upscale growth along the
front will likely promote an increase in severe wind potential near
and after 00 UTC as the northern IA activity spreads
north/northeast.

..Moore.. 04/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5xyjs71pMxeSqLfTwBIc-8FrPJDG9XYMS5k43J16CrvbY-gvDp3yBOaqo1O2RFoGknJRw6mlY= iTTJi_e6r8y5h6LR-0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 43519407 43559437 43889449 44229433 44929389 45139357
45179295 45029232 44789185 44459149 44179137 43949140
43669162 43539181 43509197 43519407=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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