ACUS11 KWNS 240041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240041=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-240245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...Iowa into northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138...

Valid 240041Z - 240245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat continues across central IA into northwest
Missouri as a squall line continues east. Damaging winds will remain
the primary concern.

DISCUSSION...A squall line continues to progress east across central
IA and northwest MO. Wind observations from along the line have
largely remained in the 40-55 mph range, though pockets of stronger
velocities embedded within the line are apparent in regional radars,
and a gust up to 65 mph was recently observed near Winterset, IA.
Additionally, weak embedded circulations are evident near KDMX in
proximity to the RDA, and are mainly associated with broken portions
of the line where updraft/downdraft convergence zones are more
zonally oriented. KDMX VWP observations recently sampled around 25
knots of southerly 0-1 km bulk shear, which should continue to
support the potential for brief circulations within any broken or
locally bowing section of the line. However, the overall tornado
threat should remain low as MLCAPE begins to degrade with the onset
of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Additionally, lightning counts
have been declining over the past hour, suggesting that this may be
onset of a weakening trend that has been anticipated by high-res
guidance after 00 UTC. Consequently, the severe threat should wane
further over the next few hours.

..Moore.. 04/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4yBL0VpI77quzxm6dOZIZHBc7zCvAivXG6n5knFZh-0mc-y-gnQVr4GOUvtpoSxn41FHoU-m3= fmDRgXz5depdBZkPvw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 42779205 41739253 41069299 40599336 40169391 39919432
39769463 39759487 39819507 39919524 40189504 40479478
41609406 42419358 42909337 43029332 43169295 43249245
43229212 43109205 42779205=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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