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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0516

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Fri Apr 24 16:51:13 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 241651
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241650=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-241845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0516
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1150 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

    Areas affected...South-central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 241650Z - 241845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large/very-large hail and a couple
    of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon. A watch is likely, but
    timing remains uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been noted on visible satellite
    over the last 30-45 minutes in the vicinity of Ada. This is
    occurring just northeast of a surface low near Wichita Falls. Upper
    60s to low 70s F dewpoints in south-central Oklahoma suggest very
    limited MLCIN when modifying the 12Z OUN sounding. That said,
    large-scale ascent is not strong and the surface low has weakened
    slightly over the last hour. It is not clear that these initial
    attempts at initiation will be sustained. It will likely take
    additional surface heating (perhaps into the low 80s F) for updrafts
    to mature. 35-45 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse
    rates will favor supercells capable of large to very-large hail.
    Though low-level winds are not that strong, a tornado risk will
    likely accompany any discrete convection near the outflow boundary
    as well. Convective trends will continued to be monitored, but a
    watch is likely this afternoon.

    ..Wendt.. 04/24/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4k2qbhT-g7uQI_-VStevxAp8UnVf8YnZ94CBW0Wdrtlfc9sE_4ltSqHUDHsR-lR4lGxpGSffd= dxFH-H1941N2g7IbAo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33859569 33779584 33709626 33739717 33919770 34329787
    34709797 34989762 35199654 35139601 34749566 34329566
    33859569=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)