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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0517

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Fri Apr 24 18:21:15 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 241821
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241820=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0517
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0120 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

    Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...ArkLaTex

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 241820Z - 242015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of the ArkLaTex this
    afternoon. Timing of development is not certain, but a supercell or
    two would be possible. Large/very-large hail and tornadoes are the
    main hazards.

    DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are increasing in southeast Oklahoma
    into the ArkLaTex. Temperatures are just now reaching the mid/upper
    70s F in this region which may mean robust development will take
    another hour or two. The environment is becoming increasingly
    favorable for severe convection, however. 35-40 kts of shear and
    MLCAPE reaching 2000-2500 J/kg will promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail and tornadoes. As low-level winds are expected
    to remain rather modest, the tornado threat will depend on a
    right-moving supercell (motion that would maximize warm-sector
    residence time) interacting with backed surface flow near the
    outflow boundary. Storms that cannot root in the warm sector will
    tend to move more east/east-northeast into the cooler air. The
    tornado threat would be less, but the hail concern would remain.

    ..Wendt.. 04/24/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!78pT9tScZumQ4h21Y36j7GSppwBNEIZ8cFIKjzOZ5eZ83NvNbCT4U9Ry9aZY3QDzPUZ00jYZL= QVZXZb7f0sCVWHxltI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32939426 33299495 34199562 34619555 34649495 34259436
    33709410 33069403 32929405 32939426=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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