ACUS11 KWNS 241937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241936=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-242130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central MS...northern LA...and far
southern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241936Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual thunderstorm intensification is expected through
the late afternoon into early evening. The primary concerns will be
damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. The need for a watch in
the near term is uncertain, though trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a remnant/weakened MCS moving into the
ArkLaMiss, visible satellite imagery indicates an increasingly
unstable PBL -- as temperatures warm into the lower 80s amid upper
60s dewpoints. Despite mostly weak/anafrontal convection thus far, thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage along the leading
gust front and into the unstable air. This trend is expected to
continue into the late afternoon, as deep-layer shear vectors become
slightly more line-orthogonal. Steep midlevel lapse rates (8.4 C/km
sampled by the SHV 18Z sounding) atop the destabilizing PBL should
support gradual intensification of thunderstorms. Around 40 kt of
effective shear will favor organized cells/clusters with an
accompanying risk of severe hail and locally damaging gusts.
However, minimal large-scale forcing for ascent and lingering
inhibition at the base of the EML casts uncertainty on the overall
severe risk in the near term (over the next 2-3 hours).=20

With time, high-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement
that storms will increase in coverage with southward extent, and
congealing cold pools would promote an increasing damaging-wind
risk. It is unclear if a watch will be needed in the near-term,
though convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65ihpJe-Rnz2yish_Ek4dLwuNRGASWM8_yfuLWkYJW4Heib7THEJQFxX8j52EOBBDybW-lZhW= bXoHMECZlP1n6tRof0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33089316 33349293 33429262 33279187 33359100 33479070
33908987 33988976 34038943 33948900 33658869 33218864
32718876 32328898 32038941 31799007 31709084 31769178
32049259 32299295 32569318 33089316=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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