ACUS11 KWNS 242302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242301=20
NEZ000-COZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242301Z - 250100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may be capable of producing
sporadic strong to severe downburst winds over the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest lightning data shows a recent uptick in activity
associated with a cluster of weak/shallow convection over parts of
western NE. This is likely attributable to convection beginning to
impinge upon a narrow plume of very modest low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low 30s), which is supporting around 250 to
perhaps 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Additional thunderstorm development appears
possible over the next couple of hours as this cluster of shallow
convection drifts east across the buoyancy axis. Dewpoint
depressions on the order of 30-35 F (which hint at deep
boundary-layer mixing) coupled with modest effective bulk shear
(30-35 knots) may support strong to severe downburst winds to the
west of the Highway 83 corridor. Given the meager and narrow plume
of the effective warm sector and coming onset of nocturnal cooling,
any severe threat is expected to remain fairly localized and
relatively short-lived.

..Moore/Leitman.. 04/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!70pbSOWn8lmk5WBBuZ1Wn9Hp-tjpuOUtySj6kfD5Pb4gYGXiEi-MqE9r6mdAX6qsEDPiTYVZv= p7o0xDyINImP_6xQu4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...

LAT...LON 41610216 41980205 42330167 42450111 42340061 42060041
41460027 40890040 40480090 40420136 40490181 40570192
40780211 41280220 41610216=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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