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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0523

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Sat Apr 25 00:32:46 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 250032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250032=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0523
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0732 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

    Areas affected...far southern Arkansas...northeast
    Louisiana...southwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250032Z - 250230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms near an outflow boundary may produce
    brief periods of marginal hail this evening from southern Arkansas
    into northern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.

    DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary continues to push southward across
    northern LA and into southwest MS. This boundary is undercutting a
    very moist and unstable air mass, with periodic strong to marginally
    severe storms at times.

    Forcing for ascent is generally limited to this shallow boundary, as southwesterly boundary layer winds are not particularly strong. For
    example, 15-20 kt at 850 mb on area VWPs. However, given such strong instability on nearby 00Z soundings, the undercutting action/lift of
    the outflow boundary may be enough for a couple more hours of
    marginal severe risk, including hail at or above 1.00" and localized
    strong gusts. Given the scattered and likely short-lived nature of
    these cells, a watch is not anticipated.

    ..Jewell/Leitman.. 04/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9hLtYfi5tbHoEcEQs8qJzSCd_GLlfKLmFbim-u380EWQCxzoY68XzbmSZX7zhJajqpcYTBCXI= bDnNAcxNZGAeR3ACyU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32359326 32759334 33569330 33609273 32239066 31838994
    31628956 31158965 31038980 31079061 31219139 31659233
    31939293 32359326=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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