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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0528

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Sat Apr 25 18:57:51 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 251857
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251857=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0528
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

    Areas affected...Central Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251857Z - 252100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next hour
    or so across portions of central KS and northwestern OK. Large hail
    up to 2" in diameter and severe wind gusts will be possible as the
    storms intensify through this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery within the warm sector ahead
    of a cold front and dryline indicates two areas where convective
    initiation seems likely within the next hour or so. Cumulus is
    becoming more prevalent and deepening over northwestern OK, while
    several attempts at initiation have been noted along the cold front
    across west-central KS. Breaks in the stratus near these areas has
    allowed for increased heating ahead of a mid-level perturbation to
    the southwest, and destabilization will continue to occur over the
    next 1-2 hours with additional insulation. Surface dewpoints in the
    upper 50s to low 60s beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates is
    currently contributing to MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg across this region. Just
    upstream, a modest mid-level westerly speed max is also nosing into
    the area, and will maintain effective bulk shear magnitudes around
    40 to 50 kt. Currently, VNX's VWP is indicating effective shear
    around 45 kt.

    Elongated, straight hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates
    around 7.5-8 C/km are expected to contribute to large hail sizes
    through at least late this afternoon, with a few supercells likely.
    A severe thunderstorm watch is currently being considered.

    ..Barnes/Guyer.. 04/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-_YAZ-3nl1Rj2Q6-ul8J4m-xYU3N04Yoxdt6P5LP1NrqP69D9A2r32yW_oTUwWEvs3v2Unp3q= cbQ-V1v7QLB9jnTHr8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35749943 36049953 36259979 36250000 38899994 39929941
    39949817 37239747 36439752 35339849 35749943=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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