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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0529

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Sat Apr 25 20:05:23 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 252005
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252004=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-252130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0529
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern OK into
    north-central/northeast TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 252004Z - 252130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercells with a threat of tornadoes (possibly EF2+),
    very large to giant hail, and localized severe gusts may develop
    from late afternoon into early evening. Tornado Watch issuance is
    likely.

    DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern is in place across the
    southern Plains this afternoon. A broad surface low extends from
    northeast NM into the TX South Plains. An outflow-influenced
    boundary is lifting northward as a warm front from southern OK into
    northeast TX. A cold front is moving into northwest OK, and a
    surface trough extending from west-central OK into northwest TX will
    sharpen into a more well-defined dryline as heating/mixing continues
    this afternoon.=20

    At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity
    of all of these boundaries by late afternoon, as the dryline moves
    eastward and warm front continues to gradually lift northward. Rich
    low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F)
    beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed in a recent NSSL
    LIFT sounding near Duncan, OK) are resulting in strong to extreme
    buoyancy near and south of the warm front, with MLCAPE in the
    2000-4000 J/kg range. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will favor
    supercell development.=20

    Despite generally modest low-level flow, tornado potential may be
    maximized near the warm front, where 20-25 kt of southwesterly 1 km
    flow (as depicted by various short-term guidance) atop backed
    surface winds will support 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2. Given the
    very favorable instability and locally enhanced SRH, any supercell
    that can track along the warm frontal zone could pose a threat of a
    strong to intense tornado. Some tornado potential could also
    eventually evolve south of the warm front, if any supercells can be
    sustained within the richly moist environment as low-level shear
    gradually increases into early evening.=20=20

    Otherwise, the very favorable thermodynamic environment and strong
    deep-layer shear will support a threat of very large to giant hail
    (2-4+ inches in diameter). Localized severe gusts will also be
    possible, especially if any clustering of intense supercells occurs
    with time. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 4 PM CDT in order to
    cover these threats.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xvBSsc4PNsAvGCDoCrODbJRD7ZtmltVO8zQQueuxOG1yE5IgwNaG-DoZVDTi5Y_PR7EN2aa3= v6Ep1vjpyumaCujdCU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35169822 35539808 35589789 35609725 35739671 35849602
    35809545 35649515 35339471 34809459 34399457 34089459
    33329463 33029486 32849640 32899811 33439819 34039820
    35169822=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)