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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0530

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Sat Apr 25 21:55:27 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 252155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252154=20
    KSZ000-260000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0530
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0454 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

    Areas affected...Central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143...

    Valid 252154Z - 260000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for very large (2 inch) hail is likely
    increasing across parts of central Kansas.

    DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery shows steady intensification of a pair
    of supercells to the west of the Great Bend, KS area, and regional
    radar also depict gradually strengthening mesocyclones. These cells
    are generally propagating to the east/southeast towards a plume of
    richer low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s)
    where MLCAPE values generally increase from around 1000 J/kg to
    closer to 1500-2000 J/kg. Consequently, the recent intensification
    trend will likely continue over the next couple of hours as these
    cells migrate east/southeast. Given a nearly zonal wind profile
    aloft with ample speed shear (nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km BWD sampled
    by the KICT VWP), splitting supercells are probable, and will likely
    feature severe hail. Based on the downstream convective environment,
    recent hail reports (observed hail reports have been trending
    upwards from 1 to 1.5 inches), and SARS sounding analogs, hail may
    be as large as 2 inches with the stronger storms as they migrate
    towards the plume of richer low-level moisture.

    ..Moore.. 04/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!48VJMPDP19Nd5VNoXbuNusEc4CnapV2ZBgPhtRup4k5hVhWgFgTyZFFEEnCn9IuxZ4qU37Pg0= uFGnOBaHvXebO-xQTA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38159968 38429970 38629957 38759929 38839806 38689781
    38509771 38209769 37839784 37559824 37439879 37569937
    38159968=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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