Forum: War Ensemble BBS

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 10:01:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151001
FFGMPD
TXZ000-151600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0725
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151000Z - 151600Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and concentrated bands of showers and
thunderstorms with extreme rainfall rates will continue this
morning across the TX Hill Country and some adjacent areas of
south-central TX. Areas of dangerous and life-threatening flash
flooding are expected, with the potential for locally catastrophic
impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
continues to show a well-defined mid-level trough axis that
extends from northern Mexico up across the TX Hill Country and
extending eastward all the way into the Lower MS Valley. However,
there is a strong embedded vort center drifting near the Rio
Grande River in close proximity to Del Rio, and this energy will
help focus a very moist and unstable airmass courtesy of a
persistent low-level jet into the TX Hill Country and adjacent
areas of south-central TX this morning.

The result is expected to be multiple slow-moving clusters and
bands of concentrated showers and thunderstorms with extreme
rainfall rates. PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches along with early morning
MLCAPE values already of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg will be supporting
rainfall rates of up to 2 to 3+ inches/hour.

As mentioned in the previous MPD, one other key contributor to
this will be the rather strong and persistent low to mid-level
convergence around the eastern flank of the vort center over the
TX Hill Country. This moisture convergence coupled with strongly
favorable upwind propagation Corfidi vectors for backbuilding and
cell-training will support not only enhanced hourly rainfall
rates, but also the persistence of them within these
semi-organized convective clusters and bands.

The latest 06Z HREF/REFS guidance and earlier runs of the
experimental WoFS suggest an expansion of convection this morning
now only across the TX Hill Country, but also some adjacent areas
of south-central TX off to the east. This will be connected to the aforementioned low-level jet and vort energy, but also interaction
with a weak stationary front that is in close proximity.

Additional rainfall totals this morning of 3 to 6 inches are
likely, with some spotty 8+ inch amounts possible just through
this morning. These additional rains will promote areas of
dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, and especially
given already sensitive soil conditions. Potential will exist for
locally catastrophic flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_mK0TLJlqkgc8ObLk1SJVzwdFa-X9abDhUoYy8YeeTMHF0OvyOXE4bKUKqRKx1ychB6i04URg-VrsBHjMo1x3g-BhCY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31999999 31469873 30729775 29799716 28809745
28539842 28759993 29370113 30240214 31120221
31700178 31980113

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 11:18:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151118
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-151615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0726
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
717 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151117Z - 151615Z

Summary...Convergence west of a surface low should continue to
produce the heavy rainfall through this morning over Arkansas into
eastern Oklahoma. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" should lead to
localized flash flooding.

Discussion...A weak surface low pushing into eastern Arkansas has
aided heavy thunderstorms over western and southern portions of
the state. The cyclonic flow in a rather moist and sufficiently
unstable environment along with some frontal forcing should allow
enough repeating heavy rain to cause localized flash flooding rest
of this morning.

Easterly flow below a strong upper high centered over the Midwest
will continue to push activity westward over the Mid-South. A
mid-level low is apparent in WV imagery lifting north over
Mississippi. Moisture has pooled north and west of this low with
PW peaking at 2.2" just SW of Memphis and a gradient to 1.9" along
the OK border. Thunderstorms developed along the western flank of
the low and likely along a surface front wavering west from the
surface low. Instability is sufficient with MUCAPE around 1000
J/kg with estimated hourly rainfall of 2" estimated from KLZK and
KSRX.

Recent HRRR/RRFS runs do not properly have the development that
has occurred, but generally depict cyclonic motion to cells they
develop through the morning. This area will continue to be
monitored.

This area of Arkansas has been fairly dry over the past week with
FFG around 2.5"/hr despite the terrain of central/western
Arkansas. Therefore flash flooding should be localized only
through the morning hours.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!88IN1iIjj36PIMeNV5SfD2CC3vTSqKcWaJlTAgA0bJjULeQTuYzzVGNxIvSJuVt9TfyWSre2HC57GZ-rQj9SDZ95KmA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35969425 35749282 34559125 33129160 33059237
33869362 35459500

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 12:13:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151213
FFGMPD
TXZ000-151810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0727
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...Middle Texas Coast Through Houston

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151210Z - 151810Z

SUMMARY...Repeating heavy thunderstorms will continue this morning
from the Middle Texas Coast up through the Houston metro area.
Scattered instances of considerable flash flooding is likely west
of Houston with a localized flash flood risk for the Houston metro.

DISCUSSION...Activity blossomed around sunrise inland from the
Middle Texas Coast along a stationary front east of activity over
the Texas Hill Country (see MPD 725 for that area). An upper low
is over North Texas with deep layer southerly flow over central/southern/eastern Texas. PW of 2.1" has pooled along with
front with elevated instability (SBCAPE of 3000 J/kg) advecting in
from the south. The cells have been fairly small and are moving,
but repeating activity is occurring with hourly rainfall estimates
to 2.5" near Victoria.

So far, this activity is south of the heavy rain from yesterday,
though northward motion will bring this swath into play by midday.
The 10Z/11Z HRRR have a decent handle on this while the WOFS led
on the threat east of the Hill Country though it only had heavy
rain as far east as Matagorda Bay by the 11Z run.

Still in question is the Houston metro area. A heavy thunderstorm
is east of Galveston Bay and some cells have formed near Freeport.
There should be localized flash flooding in the Houston area this
morning with the considerable threat farther west focused from
Victoria north through I-10.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5QSX1idg-hwV4B8F28xkxAf7uP-3ma9MWCajB3KfuWi3ZW00vke4MvJ_FMJEeXwkXlhnNqVlg7QbjZydH4TpjK4lYNg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30159635 29979534 30049455 29829431 29409443
28889510 28399598 27709714 28339762 29189741
30109718

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 16:11:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151611
FFGMPD
TXZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0728
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151608Z - 152200Z

SUMMARY...Widespread light to moderate rain over the Hill Country
this afternoon with embedded heavy rain threat farther east than
this morning. Afternoon flash flood threat is focusing along the
populated I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Waco.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite, radar, and lightning products
depict heavy thunderstorm areas to be farther east than this
morning. An MCV from the extreme rainfall this morning remains
over the Hill Country, near Kerr County. Cyclonic flow is drawing
moisture and instability up a narrow corridor west of Victoria
(where morning rainfall was) to the eastern end of the Hill
Country. Recent rainfall rates to 2.5"/hr are north of San Antonio
per KEWX with more scattered thunderstorms north from Rockport and
up the central Texas I-35 corridor.

Instability is around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE near Rockport and around
2000 J/kg north from San Antonio with southerly low level flow of
25kt. PW is around 2.2" along the Middle Texas Coast with 2"
currently up to the Hill Country. This corridor is generally east
of the morning heavy rain with rain generally more moderate west
of the MCV.

Afternoon flash flooding is considered localized given the main
threat corridor is east of the extreme rainfall over the past two
days. This is a multi-day extreme rainfall event, so please
continue to monitor forecasts and alerts across central Texas.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6mzsAuKBP44rALH00qllm2gyCQMfApkyOnWo4o6TpI8D-nEtqdJ6GZy1oQDnjESvCu62X4q--CAkK1fXBWjD9zvUIjw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32109832 32059706 31429651 30609675 29489713
29059707 28119711 28339800 28689852 29049898
29239936 29429995 29890038 30260030 31569944
31779930

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 17:42:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151742
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-152300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0729
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...Northern Arkansas, Northeast Oklahoma and
Vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151740Z - 152300Z

Summary...Convergence along a stationary front should continue to
produce scattered heavy thunderstorms through this afternoon over
northern Arkansas, northeastern Oklahoma, into Missouri and far
western Tennessee. Hourly rain amounts to 2" should lead to
localized flash flooding.

Discussion...A weak surface low is still over northeast Arkansas
with a mainly zonal stationary front draped across the northern
part of the state with a mid-level low along the MS/TN border. The
main activity remains west of the surface low center, but unlike
this morning, instability is greater north of the front which is
where recent activity has focused. Easterly flow below a strong
upper high centered over the Midwest will continue to push
activity westward over the Mid-South.

Cyclonic convergence along this front will continue to drive
convection along that zone as well. Light shear will keep the
storm motion slow and allow repeating. This is a rather moist
environment with 2.2" PW from the MO Bootheel to central AR with
2" extending west into OK.

Recent HRRR/RRFS continue to underdo this activity, but are
helpful in a general definition of the discussion area. Most the
afternoon precip should avoid the heavy rain areas from this
morning over western AR (into OK) and southern AR. FFG remains
elevated, generally 2.5"/3hr in northeast AR/Bootheel and 4"/3hr
over the Ozarks (in spite of the terrain).

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_IHWXdHGKa2S-SQU0j-UGSrLxiBvCdZq3cW3yNSBf6aYO9Js7MXqzNJCpkV3NW23Q3VwD2IgsEJoF2tSsM1oYvZ4iBw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37219596 37059403 36799207 36509010 35848952
34609051 34859237 35329474 35999629 36779679

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 17:48:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151747
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-152345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0730
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ & southwest UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151745Z - 152345Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop due
to daytime heating within a moist airmass. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion....Skies are mostly clear across the region, which is
aiding the development of ML CAPE and eroding CIN. There are
early signs of convective initiation across northwest AZ, to the
northwest of a small MCV. The region is just ahead of a narrow positively-tilted upper level shortwave. Precipitable water
values are 0.9" at elevation in the Mogollon Rim and close to 1.8"
in the deserts of southwest AZ. ML CAPE is broadly 500-1500 J/kg
and increasing. Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts in southeast AZ.

ML CAPE should increase another 500-1000 J/kg during the afternoon
and early evening, which should lead to increased coverage. As
low-level inflow and the mean 850-400 hPa are weak, storms would
be slow to move before cold pools form near any clusters and
propel development along later today. Temperatures at 700 hPa are
slightly lower than yesterday, implying less mid-level capping and
more of a chance for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to persist
at lower elevations south of the Mogollon Rim. With hourly
amounts to 2.5" possible, widely scattered instances of flash
flooding could occur in urban areas, dry washes/arroyos, box
canyons, and near burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7f1Xww-zA6MBhP5O_zvc7zh-R8BjQIQcfFsXQy1cI9c8054Mn9N7gneuf4Xm_QRwunxwnNJkVrIchIGH2bBIoMnFiEQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38551279 38471141 36871235 35501118 33550854
31290911 31331142 33001350 34781487 36071556
37571464

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 18:33:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151833
FFGMPD
TXZ000-152345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0731
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...North Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151830Z - 152345Z

Summary...Outflow from central Texas activity should continue to
form a focus area for convection rest of this afternoon. Localized
amounts of 2.5" will cause flash flood concerns across the
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Additional lines may lift over North
Texas and cause other localized flash flooding into the evening.

Discussion...Outflow from the Hill Country activity is lifting
into North Texas with 2" PW into an area of 2000 J/kg SBCAPE.
Repeating cells have caused localized hourly estimates of 2.5"
rainfall north of Fairfield. This activity will progress through
the DFW metro over the next couple of hours. Recent HRRR runs have
a general agreement with reality and also indicate potential
subsequent rounds of activity lifting north and a localized risk
for 4" over the next few hours. Therefore, a localized flash flood
risk is warranted over North Texas into this evening in spite of
near normal FFG around 2.5 to 4"/3hr.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4WHXWv1ehuqzvLXmS82FxEWICBwDp_NXLeKShHedf_WVc21TdZ4SClVC9KK1JqAXnHDJyMb5eOorHjV8bhjBDW3q_mA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33679824 33579573 32799483 32069492 31719531
31639686 31629839 31769928 32569991 33079989
33379957

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 19:06:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151905
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-160103-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0732
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of the WY/MT border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151903Z - 160103Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop near
the MT/WY border. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" could lead to
widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A shortwave across ID is leading to an area of
divergence aloft near the WY/MT border. CIN is eroding quicker
than yesterday, possibly due to lower 700 hPa temperatures and/or
less cloud cover, which has led to earlier convective initiation.
ML CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg exists here. Precipitable water values
are 1-1.5" per GPS data, very moist for this elevation. Effective
bulk shear is near 25 kts. Across MT, there is some 700 hPa
confluence in this area.

The surface winds remain counter to the mean 850-400 hPa wind,
which will likely lead to precipitation efficiency. The 12z
HREF/12z REFS guidance shows an uptick of shower and thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon, indicating a peak towards 00z. The main
concerns will be slow cell movement, possible backbuilding, short
periods of cell training, and cell mergers. These events could
lead to hourly rain amounts to 2.5". This degree of heavy
rainfall would be a problem in steep terrain, urban areas, burn
scars, and any dry washes/arroyos. Flash flooding is possible;
instances could be widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4zBwacVQJ9Wx9IVUEkkpJ7sLt8q98gRheNt-TiadXfeirzeMUXuZRMGDPXby79tPEzK2Bn2CYJWhYFKT4uHedxEFP74$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47030881 46310761 45140703 44190723 43280997
44471018 45141121 46651061

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 20:07:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152007
FFGMPD
TXZ000-160005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0733
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Trans Pecos

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152005Z - 160005Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing over/near
saturated soils in western TX. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...An MCV is spinning near Mason TX at the present time.
In its western flank, showers and thunderstorms are forming over
the Trans Pecos in the vicinity of an 850 hPa low and near the
base of an upper level low where a broad area of 1-6" of rain fell
over the past couple of days. Precipitable water values are
1.4-1.8". The storms are forming near an instability gradient,
with 1500-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE to its south. Effective bulk shear
is 25 kts in the thunderstorms' vicinity.

Both the 12z REFS/HREF formed this activity hours ago, so the
guidance looks problematic regarding its end. Hourly rain amounts
up to 2.5" should be possible in this environment, which would be
problematic where soils have seen some saturation or areas with
minimal top soil. Isolated to widely scattered flash flood
instances are possible. Used a four hour window due to the
temporal uncertainty regarding its persistence.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_2XTo65C8zSvzZt18W_apxSk3cYTZeECdAYBqETMEHM50kyRe6F_9He_kMMBHtjNCyTuUcKP2oKZDM35b8tN_jOEKCQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31480122 31120004 30279966 29930038 30070194
31100256

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 21:28:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152128
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-160256-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0734
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...near the MO/AR border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152126Z - 160256Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall should
wane in coverage after 00z. Until that happens, hourly rain
amounts to 3" are possible which could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to display
occasional overshooting tops on GOES imagery. These storms are
near and slightly north of a convergence zone. ML CAPE upstream
(to the east) is 2500-3000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 25 kts
is leading to occasional training bands. Precipitable water
values are ~2".

The 18z HREF/12z REFS continues a similarly broad cell coverage
through 00z before the area of heavy rainfall shrinks in scale
thereafter, possibly due to CIN formation. The centroid of the
group of storms is expected to shift east with time, towards the
ML CAPE pool. Until this occurs, hourly rain amounts to 3" remain
possible which could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash
flood concerns.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9nT4geVuIKANunCLSCnjhm9Ds45beGEItFSU_-paCG5bkqef8fThb_xIog1XZXo28Un8jvN8ltjoi0t-IjGbFK0c_8c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38099261 37939019 37268899 36248860 34968903
34959105 35289359 35519493 36609515

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 21:52:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152151
FFGMPD
TXZ000-160349-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0735
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...South-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152149Z - 160349Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are slowly redeveloping across
the region. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" would lead to additional
flash flood concerns into tonight over saturated soils.

Discussion...An MCV is evident on satellite and radar imagery
north of Brady TX. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms have been slowly developing across the region as of
late within an instability gradient, though few have shown much
organization. Effective bulk shear is 25-30 kts across portions
of the area. Precipitable water values are 1.6-2" per GPS data.
The ML CAPE pool to the south has values exceeding 2000 J/kg.
Low-level inflow and the mean 850-400 hPa wind are similar in
magnitude.

The guidance indicates that, with time, heavy rainfall should
become more concentrated to the south of the existing MCV. Inflow
at 850 hPa is expected to back and slightly increase in the
meantime, exceeding the mean 850-400 hPa wind, which could also
lead to efficient rain bands to its west-southwest. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" are possible in this environment. While the 12z
REFS and 18z HREF are not showing good agreement, soils are
saturated from recent heavy rainfall, so it wouldn't take much to
lead to renewed flash flooding. Widely scattered to scattered
flash flooding occurrences are expected through 04z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!46ZOVtR4bxa6hluAL8x1zscCYvOdaxR4aCfOCHzqSEVzWdAKUMlddS-zxHjUddvOf5VYRTFWpO4G-v45agxB9dpIMNY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31670103 31379951 31549863 31189740 29109797
28419911 28550004 29480193 30290264 31140252
31610184

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 23:35:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152335
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160533-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0736
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...in and near AZ & southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152333Z - 160533Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue
across portions of the area. Hourly amounts to 2.5" are possible,
which could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
AZ and southern UT, with other inbound activity moving across
northwest NM. New cells have formed closer to Las Vegas NV.
Precipitable water values are ~0.9" in the terrain and ~1.8" in
lower elevations. As CIN is developing, MU CAPE of 500-3000 J/kg
exists across the region. Effective bulk shear remains ~25 kts
near the AZ/NM border.

Due to CIN development, the scope of the shower and thunderstorm
coverage is expected to decrease late this afternoon and this
evening, eventually becoming more restricted to portions of the
NM/AZ border. Cell mergers and short periods of training would be
the main causes of the heavy rainfall. Hourly amounts to 2.5"
remain possible for as long as sufficient cell coverage allows for
mergers and training. Isolated to widely scattered flash flood
occurrences are possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8xXOoCoLaXbdTBl92d-iwPaN1xgGtpWTYpPXvz9xraXNAWGuFQbrhz1JzPoq22jUZoJ8VYlROJQERh1Ub2VbCWzxCxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38741275 35510836 33340829 31570948 30871076
32161425 34271493 36951603 38011399

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 04:11:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160411
FFGMPD
TXZ000-161009-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0737
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160409Z - 161009Z

Summary...Additional areas of significant, life-threatening
impacts from flash flooding are expected tonight through early
tomorrow.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a gradual
increase in thunderstorm activity across several areas of central
and south Texas from near Junction to Uvalde. Recent backbuilding
in the part of the cluster near Junction led to brief 2-4 inch/hr
rain rates earlier, likely prompting extreme runoff with MRMS
Flash unit stream flows maxed out just southwest of Junction.
This occurrence isn't surprising -- the environment surrounding
ongoing convective development features modest steering flow
aloft, around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1.8 inch PW values, all
supporting slow-moving storms with high rain rates. The weak
steering flow has led to local backbuilding, and a subtle increase
in low-level convergence through the night (attendant to 25-30 kt
850mb flow developing in the region) will foster more instances of
local backbuilding/training convection through the night. Areas
of 2-4 inch/hr rain rates should redevelop at times -- especially
from near San Antonio/I-35 westward to the US 277 corridor near
Del Rio and northward into the Texas Hill Country.

These rates will develop over areas that have not fully recovered
from widespread 4-16 inch prior rainfall totals over the past two
days. Some CAMs suggest local amounts of 6+ inches of rain
through 10Z/5a central, which is reasonable given the scenario.
Widespread flood/flash flood conditions will continue, and new
instances of flash flooding are expected. Impacts could become
substantial and life-threatening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9VCWzC90QgNEaYiek3hX8Ha5NsTgSrOsRm8kMS8_IAnF4B2Dt9UF9jdxG5QibAf_K2liJI7p_uBNbkasYb_IRNVcqYo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32049984 31779841 30479795 28859805 27939834
27579918 27840000 29070074 29790164 29870242
30570298 31480273

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 08:49:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160848
FFGMPD
TXZ000-161446-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0738
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160846Z - 161446Z

Summary...Heavy to extreme rain rates continue, with catastrophic
impacts likely extending through at least 12Z/7a central.

Discussion...A couple of clusters of convection have become
dominant across central/south Texas and the Hill Country -- one
very close to Kerrville and another near Uvalde/Bracketville.
These clusters have become nearly stationary due to local
convective processes while remaining in an environment with
sufficient buoyancy/moisture (2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2 inch PW) and
inflow for intense, persistent updrafts. Because of this slow
evolution, areas of 2-4 inch/hr rain rates have persisted on a
localized basis for 2-3 hours (local 2-9 inch totals since 02Z),
resulting in extreme and potentially catastrophic impacts.

These trends are likely to continue with only very slow
westward/northward propagation through 12Z/7a central. Low-level
flow helping to maintain these intense thunderstorm clusters
should remain nearly steady state through that time (per
mesoanalysis/HREF guidance), and may only slowly weaken
thereafter. This influx into the localized clusters will likely
maintain the moisture/buoyancy needed for extreme rainfall
potential (2-4 inch/hr rates). Given sensitivities from prior
rainfall in the region, significant to catastrophic impacts are
expected.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5S9-IfPIquLun9QOn0y0Qw7MuXEZjp-anuO2dkZ-NbyRVbt7po_Wuyc28zaCUcMQxKIzizxAUuIYa0jkIZysqBPLSeA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30900012 30849842 29899781 28859848 28269957
28720043 29580133 29970185 30470133

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 08:52:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160852
FFGMPD
TXZ000-161446-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0738...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Corrected for Flash Flooding Likely Tag

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160846Z - 161446Z

Summary...Heavy to extreme rain rates continue, with catastrophic
impacts likely extending through at least 12Z/7a central.

Discussion...A couple of clusters of convection have become
dominant across central/south Texas and the Hill Country -- one
very close to Kerrville and another near Uvalde/Bracketville.
These clusters have become nearly stationary due to local
convective processes while remaining in an environment with
sufficient buoyancy/moisture (2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2 inch PW) and
inflow for intense, persistent updrafts. Because of this slow
evolution, areas of 2-4 inch/hr rain rates have persisted on a
localized basis for 2-3 hours (local 2-9 inch totals since 02Z),
resulting in extreme and potentially catastrophic impacts.

These trends are likely to continue with only very slow
westward/northward propagation through 12Z/7a central. Low-level
flow helping to maintain these intense thunderstorm clusters
should remain nearly steady state through that time (per
mesoanalysis/HREF guidance), and may only slowly weaken
thereafter. This influx into the localized clusters will likely
maintain the moisture/buoyancy needed for extreme rainfall
potential (2-4 inch/hr rates). Given sensitivities from prior
rainfall in the region, significant to catastrophic impacts are
expected.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8RkhNzpIC3TOjHO0CVd7G_5klyVwqCn2XajoMIURrGOici3umpMDR7_DOzj41Sezqsns4XJ78pyB11Xq_dy0yD_UJUE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30900012 30849842 29899781 28859848 28269957
28720043 29580133 29970185 30470133

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 14:31:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161431
FFGMPD
TXZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0740
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...South-central Texas & Texas Hill Country...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161430Z - 162030Z

SUMMARY...Catastrophic flash flooding likely to continue though
rain-rates may reduce slightly over the next few hours. Embedded
cells may still be capable of 2-3"/hr rates. Broad additional
1-3" with embedded localized 3-6" totals through mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W shows a large fairly symmetric convective
canopy over the Hill Country and Southwest TX at this time, though
GLM and NLDN denote a sizable decrease in lightning flashes with upstream/southwest edge of the complex in Southeast Val Verde and
Kinney county remaining most dense with additional overshooting
tops occurring.

RADAR mosaic shows MCV starting to become more well defined in
Edwards county lifting northeast with a broad warm-advective
regime across the eastern Hill Country approaching the Llano
Uplift region. Strong SSE LLJ remains above 30kts per VWP though
slight veering to more southerly, providing isentropic ascent of
weakly unstable air mass emerging from the Western Gulf. Embedded
convective elements remain within this WAA regime with capability
of narrow updrafts with rates up to 2", but will remain highly
localized with narrow additional 2-4" totals embedded within the
broader moderate rainfall shield. All rainfall will further swell
the flooded rivers/streams in the area but it is very near this
narrow favorably oriented embedded convective elements that will
prove more considerable in rapid-rise flash flooding.

Upstream, GOES-W WV shows a split in the sub-tropical jet and jet
streak rounding the base of the mean closed low over the
Trans-Pecos portion of TX, providing broadening diffluent flow
aloft to support favorable outflow. Surface observations suggest
there remains a southeasterly inflow through the Rio Grande River
Valley proper to intersect the flanking line of the exiting MCV
for favorable orthogonal ascent across the river valley into
Kinney county. Southwesterly steering flow aloft should allow for
this back-building convective development regime to repeat/train
through areas recently affected by the main convective line over
the last few hours. This is the area of greatest potential for
the highest rain-rates as new development cools/expands into the
broader MCS complex. Rates of 2-3"/hr are possible with localized
additional 3-6" totals still possible. This will result in flash
flooding and broaden the overall areal coverage of significant
flooding that is ongoing to the east and northeast through the
Hill Country.

Note: Rivers and small streams are likely to see secondary flash
flood surges. So even if there is some receeding currently or in
the next few hours; an additional flood wave may still occur! So
please remain weather/water aware to save your life.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6dUEvgTIbgyO-p_qedsE--dsdVDk3O59DS6OR2Ukjg9SQ-jQMvCm0uJ5TRjkLXdQPpEnJfzlzQi30SYNKsK2M5BMdgk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31589938 31529875 31289828 30819805 30039805
29339841 29019890 28779948 28580043 29180090
29640110 30310101 30820077 31460001

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 14:45:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161444
FFGMPD
TXZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0740...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1043 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Corrected for Concerning line: Flash flooding is LIKELY

Areas affected...South-central Texas & Texas Hill Country...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161430Z - 162030Z

SUMMARY...Catastrophic flash flooding likely to continue though
rain-rates may reduce slightly over the next few hours. Embedded
cells may still be capable of 2-3"/hr rates. Broad additional
1-3" with embedded localized 3-6" totals through mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W shows a large fairly symmetric convective
canopy over the Hill Country and Southwest TX at this time, though
GLM and NLDN denote a sizable decrease in lightning flashes with upstream/southwest edge of the complex in Southeast Val Verde and
Kinney county remaining most dense with additional overshooting
tops occurring.

RADAR mosaic shows MCV starting to become more well defined in
Edwards county lifting northeast with a broad warm-advective
regime across the eastern Hill Country approaching the Llano
Uplift region. Strong SSE LLJ remains above 30kts per VWP though
slight veering to more southerly, providing isentropic ascent of
weakly unstable air mass emerging from the Western Gulf. Embedded
convective elements remain within this WAA regime with capability
of narrow updrafts with rates up to 2", but will remain highly
localized with narrow additional 2-4" totals embedded within the
broader moderate rainfall shield. All rainfall will further swell
the flooded rivers/streams in the area but it is very near this
narrow favorably oriented embedded convective elements that will
prove more considerable in rapid-rise flash flooding.

Upstream, GOES-W WV shows a split in the sub-tropical jet and jet
streak rounding the base of the mean closed low over the
Trans-Pecos portion of TX, providing broadening diffluent flow
aloft to support favorable outflow. Surface observations suggest
there remains a southeasterly inflow through the Rio Grande River
Valley proper to intersect the flanking line of the exiting MCV
for favorable orthogonal ascent across the river valley into
Kinney county. Southwesterly steering flow aloft should allow for
this back-building convective development regime to repeat/train
through areas recently affected by the main convective line over
the last few hours. This is the area of greatest potential for
the highest rain-rates as new development cools/expands into the
broader MCS complex. Rates of 2-3"/hr are possible with localized
additional 3-6" totals still possible. This will result in flash
flooding and broaden the overall areal coverage of significant
flooding that is ongoing to the east and northeast through the
Hill Country.

Note: Rivers and small streams are likely to see secondary flash
flood surges. So even if there is some receeding currently or in
the next few hours; an additional flood wave may still occur! So
please remain weather/water aware to save your life.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!81_bpDTAJKNvT0UkxPlTyDKuIaRATaMm1X3NbH43nQ0eZpK0WPWAGizCiNvpBjWuW_8iAlrz7ZOr2YzJp1Q3rfjt-io$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31589938 31529875 31289828 30819805 30039805
29339841 29019890 28779948 28580043 29180090
29640110 30310101 30820077 31460001

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 16:00:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161600
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0741
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161600Z - 162100Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with some potential of localized
repeating to support .5-1"/hr rates and localized 1-2" totals in
2-3hrs. Isolated incident or two of flash flooding is considered
possible through this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W Visible and 10.3um EIR loops depict a recent
uptick in convective activity emerging out of the western Mogollon
Rim into the eastern Lower Colorado River Valley of western AZ. A
weak shortwave can be seen dropping southeast across the San
Francisco Plateau though WV suite suggests a weak jet streak along
the northwest portion of the 250mb closed ridge is providing some
weak but sufficient divergence across the western Rim into
west-central AZ.

In the lower levels, return southerly low-level moisture flow
through the Lower Colorado River Valley is weak but still fluxing
Tds in the upper 60s into the area. Tempearture/moisture profiles
from 12z RAOBs and RAP forecast, show 700-500 relatively saturated
profiles advected from the northwest ahead of the wave, but also
some weak hint of cold air advection aloft to steepen the profile
ever so slightly. The overlap of the return heating at the
surface combined is supportive of a broadening area of
conditionaly unstable air with MLCAPEs to 1250 J/kg; and while the
models remained capped, the convective initation suggests the
upper-level support of DPVA/divergence and some 850-600mb moisture
flux convergence (due to solid directional shear) is supportive of
elevated development. Deep layer moisture below cloud levels
likely will limit evaporation of rainfall and given total PWats of
2"+, rates up to 1"/hr in strongest (though narrow) cores are
possible.

Deep layer steering supports a south-southwest cell motions at
weak to modest speeds (5-10 kts) to allow for some residency for
the cores, but it is also the orientation of convective elements
noted in RADAR/satellite that suggest some short-term repeating is
possible over the next few hours as well. This should support some
spots of 1-2", with bulk sub-hourly totals up to .75-1" which
given the harder ground conditions may result in nearly
hydrophobic run-off allowing for a possible incident or two of
localized flash flooding. Confidence is low in longevity of the
convection mainly as very limited support for ongoing convection
was expected in the overall Hi-Res CAM suite.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5jPsmpEq7SBumrEvRjZPWJxbAntF9GyNZ128572mHNagJN74zM6meZZ08DMxf66Q6gt90gzrKa8MlA0OTkPzPn42Zcw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34711332 34541283 34091252 33681243 33041259
32431352 32461447 32981480 33711477 34341438
34521392

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 18:51:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161850
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-170048-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0742
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...Western Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161848Z - 170048Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms over western portions of Texas
will continue to rotate around an upper low center this afternoon.
Rate rates of 1.5 to 2"/hr should cause localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...As of 1930Z, an upper low near the southeast corner
of New Mexico is aiding instability over west Texas with low level
cyclonic flow over a boundary providing Gulf-sourced moisture to
the Permian Basin, Pecos Valley, and David Mountains. Moisture is
elevated with PW of 1.5" edging into the Permian Basin and around
1.3" over the Davis Mountains. Instability is sufficient for rapid
development with SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Rain rates from KMAF are
currently up to 1.5" though further diurnal heating should allow
localized 2"/hr rates. Flash flood guidance is generally around
2"/hr outside the Permian Basin where it's above 3"/hr. Cyclonic
motion to the activity will continue to allow repeating cells.
Localized flash flooding can be expected through the rest of the
afternoon.

The upper low should remain stationary, so activity may repeat a
fair amount and also expand into the Big Bend region by evening.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5BAuIiSNZOOttMMdPYGb9rnfS25ZdUQo4KwUnzQSU0Xlj9JC1puwauYo5annPYAmTwANxquAGW9t_wT3ofGaKqpt9g8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32800108 31640089 30330178 30050245 29270288
29320362 29530423 29750456 30210483 31550462
32750316

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 19:18:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161917
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-170115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0743
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...Utah and Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161915Z - 170115Z

Summary...Widely scattered terrain based thunderstorms over
southern Utah and northern Arizona will move slowly into this
evening. Hourly rainfall to 2.0" are possible with isolated flash
flooding expected.

Discussion...As of 19Z... Terrain-based thunderstorms have
developed over central/southern Utah and northern/central Arizona.
Elevated moisture with 1.1" PW over southern Utah and above the
Mogollon Rim which is about 2 sigma above normal. Morning full
sunshine over Utah and northern Arizona have aided the early
afternoon rapid development with central Arizona expected to catch
up after a cloudy morning per GOES-WEST.

Light flow is over this region between troughing along the West
Coast and an upper low over western Texas. This lack of shear
should cause most cells to be defeated by their rain, but enough
moisture exists to warrant an isolated flash flood risk,
especially for vulnerable areas of terrain and slot canyons.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6AHBpN7HTkyjDnn8VKuHnXVbvxSangsSoLH21hQekf_ISyY9IqUj0ywWVxu_LFoisMue2RMpgQjnjddEErEGR5yDjfk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40301112 39610939 39030947 38701021 38051103
37301163 36431180 35501130 34550924 33940920
33760966 33751031 33841154 33941254 34371300
35161364 35531395 36131402 37831320 38721294
39481225

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 19:58:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161957
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-170155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0744
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161953Z - 170155Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over
southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona this afternoon as cloud
cover from this morning continues to erode. Elevated moisture will
allow hourly rainfall to 2.0" with flash flooding coverage
expected to rise from isolated to scattered through early evening.
Localized considerable flash flooding is possible by this evening.

Discussion...As of 1945Z...Scattered terrain-based thunderstorms
have developed over southwest New Mexico on the eastern edge of
lingering cloud cover from this morning. Clouds still linger over
southeast Arizona per GOES-West imagery, though erosion continues.
Elevated moisture is across this area with 1.3" PW over southwest
New Mexico and 1.7" at Tucson per GPS data. This moisture is 2 to
3 sigma above normal. Instability is increasing with the sunshine
with SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg in NM with CIN quickly eroding as
cloud cover clears.

A notable flash flood risk remains on track for southeast Arizona
given several hours of destabilization will occur as clouds erode
toward the Tucson area. Upper level northerly flow should keep
activity moving south as light southeasterly flow maintains
moisture. Activity on the edge of cloud cover across into northern
Mexico has rainfall estimates to 2"/hr per KEMX which is a
reasonable proxy to later afternoon activity in southeast Arizona.
Isolated flash flooding through the early afternoon should
increased to scattered coverage by later afternoon. This event is
expected to last well into the evening with considerable impacts
possible by then, so stay tuned for subsequent discussions.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!94vPI5ven_sQaoKtoCaVeqxWIemdl0pIC4_ER78OkCEZiXkuY8y-VwCofTX44ICPuTbH8ARHDir2UBP2d9jBOa4twvk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34490910 34130786 33230736 31950777 31230808
31200935 31171064 31421204 31861240 32391148
32521082 32741026 33680976 34040921

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 21:44:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162143
FFGMPD
TXZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0745
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162140Z - 170100Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms track north into eastern
sections of ongoing catastrophic flash flooding into this evening.
Rain rates of 1"-1.5"/hr will add to the flood concern in this
extremely sensitive area.

DISCUSSION...As of 2130Z, Thunderstorms developed over the past
hour along I-35 south from Austin and then southwest of San
Antonio. This is notably east/south of the ongoing catastrophic
flood area in the Hill Country. However, northward movement from
deep layer southerly flow will bring them across eastern sections
of the Hill Country rest of this afternoon. Hourly rain estimates
from KEWX are generally around 1"/hr. However, given the 1500 J/kg
SBCAPE and PW of 1.9" ahead of this activity, further upscale
growth an rates of 1.5"/hr are possible.

This activity is not expected to cause flash flooding in areas
outside the ongoing flooding. 18Z FFG is around 1"/hr in the
eastern Hill Country which has been generally east of the extreme
rainfall over the past 24hrs (the area had extreme rainfall on
Wednesday). Convective inhibition (CIN) is present over the Hill
Country and could limit rainfall rest of this afternoon. However,
the strong southerly flow (30kt at 850mb) may override this.
Progression of the thunderstorms will be closely monitored and
extra caution should be taken in areas of ongoing flood response.
This is especially the case in the eastern Hill Country which is
generally downstream of the overnight/morning extreme rainfall.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4DGMu22TLMnoduDo3Wz4kNJ3wxzxIhVlikWtxkY44zlkKzlljtpVsLMxfP3x2Ln-TKws9qTekpa_EFXLvu5DCNC_nu0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31239706 30819670 29509733 28529852 27829982
28290048 28860006 29569954 30319899 30809825
31139761

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 22:13:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162213
FFGMPD
MOZ000-170215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0746
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162210Z - 170215Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms along a boundary extending across
central Missouri will continue to produce scattered instances of
flash flooding into the evening. Expect rainfall of 2-4" in a
little over an hour in the discussion area.

DISCUSSION...As of 22Z, heavy thunderstorms are along a trough
extending east-west south of I-70 in Missouri. Outflow from
earlier activity in the KC metro is working its way east along
this trough and currently in Pettis Co. As the outflow converges
with ongoing activity, particularly heavy rainfall of 3-4"/hr is
seen like what recently occurred in Johnson Co.

The environment is primed for flash flooding with Gulf-sourced
moisture (PW of 2.2" which is 2 sigma above normal) and elevated
instability (SBCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Rapid development can be
expected with the arrival of this outflow. Fortunately activity
wanes quickly behind the outflow which should bring an end to
flash flood causing rain over the western part of MO by 01Z or so.
Outflow from prior activity over St. Louis is apparent as moving
west along I-70 into Montgomery Co MO. This could also enhance,
then kill off activity over the eastern portion of the state
through the early evening as well. Will continue to monitor this
area including south-central MO which may remain outside the
influence of the outflow boundaries for awhile. As of now flash
flooding should be expected over portions of central and possibly
southeast Missouri.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-pL1_qNTOqUdaZL-6Eaal4CHjHpylQFp4C9Pt0yII1P5r9z7PwFH9lJgzHADVhmWQa6OZxHXkqdvSsgz9qzDZiHTz2k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 39459341 39119157 38229117 37899021 37279004
37199039 37409252 38009374 38849370 39189370

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 00:18:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170018
FFGMPD
COZ000-UTZ000-170515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0747
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...Western Colorado into Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170016Z - 170515Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms across the central/southern
Utah/Colorado border will continue to shift southwest through the
evening hours. Hourly rainfall to 2.0" is possible with isolated
flash flooding expected to continue.

Discussion...As of 00Z... Scattered thunderstorms are tracking
southwest over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. Hourly
rainfall estimates from KGJX are up to 1.5". The environment
favors heavy rain with PW around 1" and steady NW flow on the
immediate east side of an upper level ridge over UT. Isolated
instances of flash flooding have occurred in recent hours and will
continue through the evening per recent HRRR and RRFS runs.
Evening rainfall of an additional 1-3" can be expected, especially
where cell mergers and repeating activity occur most.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-4l2MrAknfPgiXrBF7ZHkpd9hSCD3ENmBaTfn7Qx-mENbMQWBcuSVusKfHYozJYBFNo3kSLd5MiBQXKKl8K2YemmzXk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39270801 38450692 37610706 37170785 37030907
37301072 37991111 38601069 38990944

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 01:24:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170124
FFGMPD
AZZ000-170715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0748
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
923 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170122Z - 170715Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over
central and southern Arizona this evening and potentially through
the overnight. Elevated moisture and continued instability should
continue to allow hourly rainfall to 2.0" and scattered flash
flooding.

Discussion...As of 01Z...Heavy thunderstorms are over the Tucson
metro area (with estimated rain rates from KEMX to 2"/hr) as well
as isolated coverage on the Mogollon Rim. Thunderstorm coverage
should consolidate to the Phoenix metro through the evening.
Elevated moisture is across the area below the Mogollon Rim with
PW of 1.7" to 2.0" PW which is about 2.5 sigma above normal.

Cloud cover persisted over much of this area until around 20Z
which limited the overall magnitude of this flash flood scenario.
that said, sufficient instability developed and persists below the
Mogollon Rim to allow further development through the evening
hours. This area is below an upper low over northern AZ and an
upper low over west Texas which provides northerly upper level
flow over southeast AZ with southerly low level flow increasing
over southern AZ through this evening.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have further development with scattered
thunderstorm coverage moving over this discussion area through the
evening. Localized totals of 1-3" would be enough to cause
instances of flash flooding where they occur.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-l0Q88X9tQWgVb9S01xTyzjaqHmiE52gKgyCCnUskipJEGPJEBkDwKvaXLKg2fPfH6Nz7eQ4d5CL5xPobVlj-7xdJEU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34551143 34381067 33720998 32910977 32320958
31430975 31261006 31391200 31961225 32431236
32681239 33511240 33901249 34131286 34331284
34481241

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 04:13:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170412
FFGMPD
TXZ000-170811-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0749
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1212 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170411Z - 170811Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms have redeveloped across portions
of central/south Texas and will move through the Hill Country over
the next 2-4 hours. Local impacts from earlier flooding continue
and could be aggravated by additional rainfall.

Discussion...The increase of the low-level jet across south Texas
has aided in development of scattered thunderstorms particularly
across Uvalde and Real Counties in the past hour. The storms are
embedded within a continued moist/unstable airmass (2 inch PW,
1500 J/kg MLCAPE), favoring heavy rainfall. Spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates have already been estimated per MRMS, with rainfall
occurring over areas that are extremely sensitive (near zero FFG)
from the nearly 10-30 inches of rainfall that have occurred over
the past 72 hours. Impacts are likely ongoing, and the additional
rainfall could exacerbate them over the next 2-4 hours (through
08Z/3a central).

The longer term evolution of convection across this region is a
bit unclear. While widespread convection is not expected, subtle
influences from 1) convergence associated with the low-level jet,
2) weak mid-level waves noted across west Texas providing ascent,
and 3) weak capping/inhibition could foster a few areas of
convection to be sustained and provide areas of 1-2 inch rainfall
totals in a short amount of time. Given ongoing local
sensitivities and poor recovery/runoff, additional instances of
flash flooding appear possible -- especially if any locally
backbuilding storms can be maintained.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5x80v83BJcfWfAi1PpRE3okAtStTuvgzP4sp21rKLqrHdqjBmEGXMfO_SpVZpcsU39niHL6sgyJIIdbOpkX6yiEDDf0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31870023 31759859 30769819 29039895 28900025
29780099 30930105

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 04:21:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170421
FFGMPD
TXZ000-170811-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0749
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170411Z - 170811Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms have redeveloped across portions
of central/south Texas and will move through the Hill Country over
the next 2-4 hours. Local impacts from earlier flooding continue
and could be aggravated by additional rainfall.

Discussion...The increase of the low-level jet across south Texas
has aided in development of scattered thunderstorms particularly
across Uvalde and Real Counties in the past hour. The storms are
embedded within a continued moist/unstable airmass (2 inch PW,
1500 J/kg MLCAPE), favoring heavy rainfall. Spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates have already been estimated per MRMS, with rainfall
occurring over areas that are extremely sensitive (near zero FFG)
from the nearly 10-30 inches of rainfall that have occurred over
the past 72 hours. Impacts are likely ongoing, and the additional
rainfall could exacerbate them over the next 2-4 hours (through
08Z/3a central).

The longer term evolution of convection across this region is a
bit unclear. While widespread convection is not expected, subtle
influences from 1) convergence associated with the low-level jet,
2) weak mid-level waves noted across west Texas providing ascent,
and 3) weak capping/inhibition could foster a few areas of
convection to be sustained and provide areas of 1-2 inch rainfall
totals in a short amount of time. Given ongoing local
sensitivities and poor recovery/runoff, additional instances of
flash flooding appear possible -- especially if any locally
backbuilding storms can be maintained.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9-uovBeC1C99rDZyNVwoFuQiuqkczHLtSV0U82zkyJIV2Gc54MIFzqHjhgdqAShcuLthulKJtuB2-jfieyxEJ2wTTis$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31870023 31759859 30769819 29039895 28900025
29780099 30930105

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 07:23:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170723
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-171220-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0750
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170720Z - 171220Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues primarily
across central Arizona.

Discussion...Scattered to numerous convective cells initially
concentrated across the eastern half of Arizona have congealed
into a slow-moving, forward propagating complex across central
portions of the state. The leading edge of this complex is
located along a line extending from near Buckeye through Phoenix
to near Tucson. Weak southerly low-level flow (around 5-10 knots
at 850mb) oriented perpendicular to the leading edge of this
complex is providing enough ascent for maintenance of updrafts
just north of the aforementioned boundary/leading edge. Updrafts
were being maintained amid elevated instability (estimated to be
around 500 J/kg MLCAPE) and very high PW values (approaching 2
inches), supporting locally heavy rainfall. MRMS estimates of 1
inch/hr persist north of Phoenix, which makes sense given the
environment.

Weak steering flow will allow for a slow westward propagation of
this complex into portions of western Arizona over the next 3-5
hours (through 12Z). A slight weakening trend to this activity
may also be observed, as is hinted at by CAMs/HREF. Local 1
inch/hr rain rates will lead to spots of FFG exceedance, with
excessive runoff/flash flood concerns existing especially in
terrain-favored low-lying areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_y3vSnHzgkEzzqb2AycE60meiC-lcBwS6mnk9z_iEfjJoGB095aSgs5m0Ze4XvpLWcMcHZkscybnBl-qLUu9pSv9O10$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36131352 35521240 34601155 33651046 32791009
31861109 32461365 33001441 33901431 34621439
35781462

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 08:30:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170829
FFGMPD
TXZ000-171428-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0751
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...the Texas Hill Country and surrounding areas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170828Z - 171428Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall continues across sensitive areas of the
Texas Hill Country. This rainfall will continue to pose a flash
flood risk while expanding northward toward the Big
Country/Abilene and west-central Texas areas through 14Z.

Discussion...Ascent tied to a weak mid/upper low over the
Transpecos and 30-35kt 850mb southerly flow has maintained
scattered to numerous convective cells across parts of the Texas
Hill Country tonight. Some of these cells were in relative close
proximity, prolonging rain rates and resulting in 2-4 inch totals
in ~3 hours over Uvalde and Real Counties. These areas remain
very sensitive from prior rainfall, with FFG thresholds between 0
and 1 inch/hr being readily exceeded by the convection. MRMS
Flash responses suggest that excessive runoff and flash flooding
may have occurred and/or worsened in these regions.

Convection continues to spread northward amid deep southerly
steering flow. Areas near Junction, TX are in line for
potentially multiple rounds of 1+ inch/hr rain rates at times as
storms move through, posing a continued and perhaps significant
flash flood risk. Other bands of convection will drift northward
while maturing nearer the US 277 corridor (Del Rio to San Angelo
to Abilene) and points just west of there, posting a more isolated
risk of flash flooding as FFGs/ground sensitivities are a bit less
severe in those regions.

On the whole, expect flash flood potential to continue in many
parts of the discussion area through 14Z/9a central. Significant
impacts may be noted where backbuilding is pronounced and 1+
inch/hr rain rates can occur 1) for more than an hour and/or 2) in
the more sensitive regions.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_qYFsgL0QgBIz0Conlio-Hx9Wd82pl6QnsgkKcqFG73SjlhxZIKXwQP_KpXNWsd7uDaWOjFN51i2mBGU8vWDaU4t88E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33979926 33649814 32099811 30189872 29309946
29370067 30070208 30960196 32270114

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 13:11:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171311
FFGMPD
TXZ000-171630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0752
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...West Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171305Z - 171630Z

SUMMARY...Significant to locally catastrophic flash flooding to
linger for several more hours this morning in West Central Texas.

DISCUSSION...700mb convergent flow out ahead of the MCV that was
responsible for the catastrophic flooding in the TX Hill Country
has positioned itself over the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley
this morning. Doppler radar shows back-building storms producing
as high as 2.5"/hr rainfall rates around the town of Sonora and
south of San Angelo. RAP mesonanalysis shows an 850mb low-level
jet over the Rio Grande Valley is supplying ample moisture into
the region, as well as generating >20 kts of sfc-1km shear within
the area of thunderstorm activity. MUCAPE just north of the Rio
Grande remains above 1,000 J/kg and low-level theta-e advection is
also ongoing. It is possible storms gradually build southward
towards the Rio Grande as the edge of the growing cold pool inches
southward over the next hour or two.

The 11Z HRRR continues to generate additional thunderstorms this
morning in already flash flood warned areas. A Flash Flood
Emergency was issued for the town of Sonora, and current radar and
GOES-19 satellite shows the area will contend with at least
another 1.5-3" of additional rainfall. Locally higher amounts are
possible, especially in areas of prolonged training thunderstorms.
This will exacerbate an already increasingly dangerous situation
around the region with additional flooded roadways and potential
for flood waters to inundate nearby homes and businesses. Rapid
rises in nearby creeks and streams may also place nearby
structures at risk for significant flooding impacts.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!--lcucYu4zJpBdLY7YifgOIjzot506qREzgyFAjw0ywBJApb3DpJP4phk_mpmu70MwIFb8fKgQedbblNFg1laP7Zm2I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31550075 31490034 31389996 31179974 30779975
30389997 30180027 30060068 30130112 30270132
30640159 31050171 31410164 31530132

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 16:43:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171643
FFGMPD
TXZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0753
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1242 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...West Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171640Z - 172030Z

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms producing excessive rainfall
rates around 2"/hr will continue to exacerbate areas of ongoing
significant and locally catastrophic flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to flare up along the eastern
periphery of the pesky MCV that contributed to the catastrophic
flooding in the TX Hill Country. GOES-19 GLM shows storms south of
Ozona continues to show increasing lightning clusters within
cooling cloud tops, indicating storms are strengthening just south
of Ozona. Since the issuance of MPD #752, MUCAPE is gradually
being used up along and north of I-10, but RAP mesoanalysis
continues to show as much as 3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE over the Rio
Grande and near the Big Bend. The 850mb LLJ continues to direct
rich 850mb theta-e air into the Edwards Plateau as well. PWs
remain above 1.8" and effective bulk shear approaching 25 kts is
assisting these storms in maintaining their updrafts and should
linger for at least a couple more hours.

These storms will only cause additional problems in Crockett
country through the early afternoon. With ongoing Flash Flood
Emergencies in the area, another 1-3" of rainfall with locally
higher amounts are expected. Additional life-threatening flash
flooding is possible, including flooded roads, swollen
creeks/streams, and potential flood inundation within homes and
businesses.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9vcfkR330n14c8i3LfztJFuU1oUW-DJLMBgrILGlWf7SBT_Zz2wj2O8XtKQGcEXPv9sOrRgngpJOTGaPoMtzGrPB8f4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31310089 31110070 30450055 30020093 29900170
30240208 30730214 31130191 31270156

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 17:16:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171709
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-172310-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0754
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...Southern KY...Eastern TN...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171710Z - 172310Z

SUMMARY...Pulse thunderstorms capable of producing torrential
rainfall rates up to 3"/hr could lead to areas of flash flooding
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The Tennessee Valley, Cumberland Plateau, and as far
east as the southern Appalachians have started seeing
thunderstorms blossom throughout these region. Surface dew points
are in the low-mid 70s with some spotty upper 70s dew points. RAP
mesoanalysis shows juicy PWs surpassing 2" over the TN Valley and
Cumberland Plateau, but closer to 1.5-1.75" in the southern
Appalachians. Strong surface based heating has led to MLCAPE
values to range between 2,000-3,000 J/kg, providing developing
thunderstorms with no shortage of available instability. RAP model
soundings show warm cloud layers at least 14,000ft deep in the TN
Valley, giving storms an ideal environment to be highly efficient
rainfall producers.

850-300mb mean layer winds are light (<10 kts) and very little
vertical wind shear is present, forcing storms to be more
pulse-like in nature. Additional storms will form via outflow
boundaries that traverse these regions and collide with
neighboring outflows and elevated terrain. Given the PWs and
instability present, rainfall rates up to 3"/hr will be possible
and 1-hr FFGs in some areas (Cumberland Plateau, southern KY,
eastern TN) are <2". Flash flooding is possible this afternoon
given the brief yet intense rainfall rates storms will be capable
of producing. Areas along complex terrain and residing within poor
drainage areas are most at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5fe-mSqJICvntR0cbX-gSGCes31GVRdnKzaGCuvyS4R0EbdFZkIka8C5BudZIHHHxezZ7PT8v8h6NXzG43MqCRJpDy4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37758458 36858381 36148360 35708277 34708292
34298440 34268585 34608695 35368747 36608758
37558704

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 18:53:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171853
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-172350-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0755
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...Northern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171851Z - 172350Z

Summary...Widely scattered terrain based thunderstorms over
southern Utah and northern Arizona will move slowly through this
afternoon. Hourly rainfall to 2.0" are likely with widely
scattered flash flooding expected.

Discussion...As of 1830Z... Terrain-based thunderstorms have
developed over southern Utah and northern/central Arizona where
sunshine has been present. Persistent clouds over Las Vegas and
Lake Mead has limited development there. Elevated moisture is
shifting north up the Colorado River Valley with 2.3" PW along the
CA/AZ border and 1.5" extending over southern NV and 1.2" into the
Slot Canyon region of southern UT and around the Grand Canyon,
which about 3 sigma above normal. Activity should expand farther
east as the noted cloud cover further erodes.

Light cyclonic flow is noted in the mid levels from a weak low
over northern AZ generally bringing northeasterly flow and
southwestward storm motion over the discussion area. Ample
instability is present over the areas that have had sunshine with
SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg which should rise to around 3000 J/kg
later this afternoon. Rain rates should peak around 2"/hr as
outflow promotes storm clusters. This will continue to be
monitored as destabilization expands.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!95BVJWdta93LO-L8a5Rnd2V2phouvjnKGRvSKSk4iD-iiO0et3VtjcgpuA_PI55-t1pxvwmqKiyX6u-_2s0K9C3kjLA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38501226 38501108 36591079 34631052 34021287
34391394 34561422 35141461 35901430 36531414
37181400 37311390 37931318

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 19:28:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171927
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-180115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0756
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...New Mexico and Far West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171925Z - 180115Z

Summary...Scattered terrain based thunderstorms over most New
Mexico and Far West Texas terrain will continue to develop through
this afternoon. Hourly rainfall to 2.0" are likely with isolated
flash flooding expected.

Discussion...As of 1930Z... Terrain-based thunderstorms have
developed over the Sangre de Cristo, Sacramento and other ranges
in western New Mexico as well as Far West Texas. Some moisture is
present with PW of 1.0 to 1.2" which is near normal. However, the
upper low present over the southeast corner of NM is promoting
enhanced instability (SBCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and repeating
storm motion from the cyclonic flow.

Rain rates should continue peak around 2"/hr and localized totals
of 1-3" should continue to cause isolated flash flooding rest of
this afternoon across the outlook area.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ZpvRyw0mU4Yp3N_YC_jvx3vOitlPeLNGDbs9qXzMkYPfx1FSrWBsUbld5P0ic_nHJ_ELS4Xu75GOVIy99Ni7YLfSWg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37400535 37360484 36290481 35540477 32970453
31700446 31290510 31270594 31940641 33300613
34200613 34940646 34940731 34220755 33930791
34570842 34890854 35130871 35390888 36110940
36600939 36710932 36740903 36470860 36500795
36870783 37270786 37340725

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 20:04:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172004
FFGMPD
GAZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0757
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...Greater Atlanta

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172003Z - 180100Z

SUMMARY...Multi-cell thunderstorms cluster with torrential
rainfall rates to 3"/hr will continue to cause localized flash
flooding over the greater Atlanta metro area into central Georgia
into the evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 20Z...A multi-cell cluster has developed over
the north side of the Atlanta metro along a surface trough axis.
This activity should continue to propagate south over the rest of
the Atlanta metro to central GA rest of this afternoon. Ample
instability with MCLAPE of 3500 J/kg is promoting vigorous growth
while light flow is keeping storm motion slow with outflow aiding
further development. Elevated moisture is present with PW of 2.1
to 2.2" (about 1.5 sigma above normal) with deep warm cloud layers
and max rain rates around 3"/hr expected to continue.

Recent HRRR runs are underdoing this activity with the RRFS
displaced, but reasonable for rainfall of 2-4" in scattered areas.
Much of the area has FFG of 2.5"/hr and locally lower in the
Atlanta metro. Flash flooding should remain limited to urbanized
areas, but enough repeating activity would cause excessive
rainfall anywhere in the outlook area. Localized flash flooding
can be expected to continue into this evening.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!92bOiPeM_TTlbI2kvJ-O50equSiC8abZ632e__ipF5f8loKoZfICm9iISRdc7O3Wd0U8yUReA00On6L4Dy1MOfhbP78$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34368381 33348289 32428335 32608425 32878462
33838505 34268490

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 22:58:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172258
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0758
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
657 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...Tennessee Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172256Z - 180400Z

SUMMARY...Focused corridors of thunderstorms producing torrential
rainfall rates up to 3"/hr will continue to cause scattered flash
flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...Middle portions of Kentucky and Tennessee have seen
convergence of outflow from earlier thunderstorms in the region.
These focused corridors of heavy thunderstorms are reaching peak
intensity here around 23Z and should maximize the robust moisture
and instability present. PW is around 2.3" through this area with
SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg and deep warm cloud layers. Light steering
flow will continue to allow outflow driven activity. Rainfall
rates up to 3"/hr can be expected through this evening and
scattered instances of flash flooding can be expected.

Recent HRRR runs are a bit behind on this activity consolidating
like it is, but gives the general threat area fine enough with
potential for 2-4" over scattered areas through 04Z when activity
should be finished.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7SFhgNbPpHV91ZAqpZqlA38joy84PZD6RHudceSUAPqoLkMt4U8aoTGj99bEOv8e8sFDTOphEnIaBa01rlqhDpXbaIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38338626 38228518 37818459 36798445 35688448
34888449 34558482 34558557 35458628 36338732
37148758 37998752

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 23:40:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172329
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-180430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0759
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Michigan and Northwest Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172328Z - 180430Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to shift east over
northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan through the evening.
Instability is less over Lake Erie, so the activity should wane
before reaching Cleveland. Until then, localized flash flooding
can be expected from rainfall rates up to 3"/hr.

DISCUSSION...As of 23Z...heavy thunderstorm segments are in a
broken like from south-central MI through northeast OH and moving
east at a fairly slow pace. This activity is on the leading edge
of a warm front with abundant Gulf-sourced moisture streaming in
with it. Instability is sufficient ahead of the front, but drops
off notably by Lake Erie. Therefore, the flash flood threat is to
the Toledo and Detroit metros, but not so far east as Cleveland.
The excessive wildfire smoke present ahead of the warm front
should also enhance rainfall given the abundance of aerosols for
drops to coalesce upon.

Steering flow is Wly at 20kt, but there is some upwind propagation
ongoing per radar analysis. Localized rainfall to 3"/hr is
estimated from KIWX just north of Bryan, OH with more general
2"/hr rates expected otherwise. Flash flood guidance is around
2"/hr, so flash flooding should remain localized through this
evening. Recent HRRR runs agree with a 2-4" rainfall threat that
ends before Cleveland this evening.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9eYf-fGhJMECbRFunkg9nM6xjNqr0GynByAvAAqcqCBpniVF19oZmlmZV13WZOJbhzouSJXloqTnh-6KoIYu1si6-TY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42928391 42848289 42538271 42238289 42038305
41788322 41658278 41558240 41598207 41278198
40538214 40088274 40228332 41148411 41698485
42598491

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 23:47:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172347
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-180445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0760
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172345Z - 180445Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop over
southwest Utah and portions of the Mohave Desert including much of
northwest Arizona to the western Mogollon Rim into this evening.
Hourly rainfall to 2.0" are likely with isolated flash flooding
expected to continue.

Discussion...As of 2330Z...Thunderstorms continue to develop over
southwest Utah down to western portions of the Mogollon Rim in AZ.
Outflow has driven activity off terrain with continued light
steering flow keeping a pulse nature to the activity. MUCAPE up to
2000 J/kg and high moisture of 2" over the Colorado River to 1.3"
in southwest Utah are promoting heavy development with hourly
rates to 2"/hr. Activity outside Las Vegas shifted south, so that
metro area seems OK for now in terms of heavy rain.

Recent HRRR runs depict continued development and a general
southward trend to continue this evening. Isolated flash flooding
should continue to occur, particularly in flood prone terrain,
slot canyons, and burn scars.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9slvH7NIusskk2uRS3nJEEI7QueJiuBMAerkRV6-PnfZcDqvodG0DjocW-OYQXJ2RR8pcaaLaB5mS0pw4HtvtLtwFp4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38581240 37711250 36361254 35271188 34551151
33971155 33681352 34471483 35161575 35571505
36061407 37291386 38221354 38571274

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 01:21:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 180121
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-180615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0761
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
920 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...Southern Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina into
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180119Z - 180615Z

SUMMARY...Multi-cell thunderstorm clusters with torrential
rainfall rates to 3"/hr will continue to cause localized flash
flooding across southern Georgia into southern Alabama and South
Carolina and with the Florida Peninsula into the overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 01Z...Multi-cell clusters over southern South
Carolina and Georgia are generally tracking west under a zonal
upper ridge over TN/NC. An additional cluster is tracking south
over southern AL on outflow while outflow is driving particularly
heavy rain west along the Florida Big Bend. Instability corridors
are also driving this activity with 2500 J/kg MLCAPE from central
SC arcing across southern GA/AL. Activity is on a convergence
course for the GA/FL/AL border junction, though recent activity
struggled to take root in that area. PW of 2 to 2.2" is also
present along this corridor with hourly rainfall up to 3"/hr per
regional NEXRAD.

Recent HRRR runs are underdoing all of activity with the RRFS
struggling outside of southeast GA. The ingredients point to
continued heavy thunderstorm development, so continued localized
flash flooding can be expected to continue into the overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!46UOTubrFY5KRaF3A7Vb0bL7A92IQdR_5KIiLhSva87ilPqxr2vVVctJwN3KsrmUiwUUzBSE7uLmAxihFxcLUVTVJNU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34058099 33798024 32598128 32108187 31248235
30228497 31088693 32388724 33138616 32988367
33458221

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 11:08:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181108
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-181706-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0762
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
707 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181106Z - 181706Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are showing increasing
rainfall efficiency across southwest PA and have been efficient
near the Chesapeake. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" could lead to
flash flooding.

Discussion...A shortwave moving across OH is leading to increasing
difluence aloft. To its east, showers and thunderstorms have
shown some backbuilding/short periods of training in southwest PA
and near Chesapeake Bay near a thermal gradient and within a
region of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are
1.5-2" per GPS data. Effective bulk shear is close to 25 kts,
which is leading to occasional convective organization. MU CAPE
in the region is 1000-2000 J/kg.

The mesoscale guidance has a poor handling of the PA activity, and
no handling of the activity near Chesapeake Bay. The available
ingredients support hourly rain amounts to 2.5". The 06z
GFS-based GDI supports the ongoing activity in southwest PA and
implies broadening convective coverage with time across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic States generally south of the mesoscale
guidance signal. This appears aligned with forward propagating
convective vectors, which point east to east-southeast. Daytime
heating should lead to a reduction of CIN/increase in ML CAPE
whose gradient should shift north with time, but the degree of
convection across the area will dictate how quickly the
instability gradient/effective front lifts northward. Confidence
is lower than average in the specifics, but flash flooding would
be possible, particularly in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-eOc1V287fdOfS9FTPXPsRkLctwtj21f1H8IuxbGAA7VizaYiP8FTAof918UQReNS-krRc1glFE2ADma42GCAa-7PWg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40977758 40827554 40697435 40317387 39617398
38737466 38647630 39317844 40147999 40917996

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 11:25:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181125
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-181723-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0763
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181123Z - 181723Z

Summary...Showers are slowly increasing in coverage across central
AZ. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to
flash flooding.

Discussion...Satellite imagery shows a batch of warm topped
cloudiness across portions of AZ at the present time. Radar
imagery is showing an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
within the cloudiness as of late. This is occurring to the
southwest of an apparent shortwave in the Four Corners which is
nudging/digging southwest. Precipitable water values are ~2" in
the desert and just over 1" in the Mogollon Rim. MU CAPE in the
region is 500-3000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts.

The available ingredients support hourly rain amounts up to 2.5",
with both the 06z HREF and 00z REFS indicating should be most
possible after 12z. This would occur wherever any random cell
training or cell mergers occur. This degree of rainfall would be
most problematic from a flash flooding perspective in urban areas,
burn scars, box canyons, and dry washes/arroyos. Flash flooding
occurrences are expected to be widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4gPo_KHMVY5dLsvgb01B8IuaC8xu0UgGtew6-Qd4HUxOIGNqpZWHZxQpoLkYjxTEIw28Thd_ymSw_D2ziMdn4X62xuU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36461523 36411189 33580941 31510902 31101049
31841221 34031420

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 14:06:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181406
FFGMPD
FLZ000-181704-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0764
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Southwest FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181404Z - 181704Z

Summary...A training rain band around a convective MCV has
temporarily stalled across Southwest FL. Hourly rain amounts to
3" are possible which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...An inflow band around the southeast side of a
convective MCV centered west-southwest of Tampa appears to have
stalled between Everglades City and Naples. Precipitable water
values are ~2". Effective bulk shear is 25-30 kts. Inflow from
the Gulf has led to the import of ML CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.

The guidance suggests that the convective MCV should try to
consolidate and wobble westward during the day today. Drifting
counter to the rainband's previous outward migration may be
leading to the temporary stalling of the rain band. Based on the
ML CAPE orientation, the band should continue to radiate outward
at some point, or the circulation around it could be disrupted by
diurnal convection across the interior of southern FL early this
afternoon. Until it dislodges, hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible which could lead to flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5Toq9Us2hbKtX-zMksWIblCmotHpeaN4JV5y42k5LYokOzJHZiOUlDZYh1Rmy7Mmu6JoKkjhPHjmAjNMP9qW97Y6Jgg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26878171 26668118 25638122 25608159 25868176
26238188 26548203

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 15:05:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181504
FFGMPD PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-182102-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0765
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1103 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181502Z - 182102Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop due
to daytime heating. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible,
which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...CIN is eroding due to daytime heating under mostly
sunny skies. The region is within a confluence zone at 850 hPa
and ahead of a digging shortwave across the Great Lakes (which is
enhancing upper level difluence). Precipitable water values are
1.5-2". ML CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg, and rising. Effective bulk
shear is 25-30 kts from northwest WV northward. The three hour
flash flood guidance is modest to low.

ML CAPE should rise another 500-1000 J/kg by late afternoon, which
should allow for convective expansion across the region. Given
the available ingredients, hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible
where cells merge, train, manage to backbuild, or move little
across the terrain or in the vicinity of a nearby front/thermal
gradient across western PA. Given the three hourly flash flood
guidance values and topographic relief across the region, this
degree of heavy rainfall would be highly problematic. Flash
flooding issues are expected to be widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4plXu-dOw6zmUZGwfLxivvU3JfZyB9Nd9FRW1VnCbidoCVDnG1XlVVWzb_R3vOjFs4NoWSYPIvTAkeGSZT4gI3cLlwo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...FFC...GSP...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX... PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41637889 41077845 40357806 39597732 38187867
35948123 34458332 34508441 35308485 37388356
38538267 39668238 40328135 40908098 41568011

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 15:30:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181529
FFGMPD MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-182128-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181528Z - 182128Z

Summary...A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall are expected into late this afternoon. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding
in urban areas.

Discussion...A thermal boundary extends through portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States. Near the boundary, showers and thunderstorms
are showing some slight backbuilding character while moving
northeast into New York City. Precipitable water values are
1.4-2". MU CAPE is 500-5000 J/kg across the region, with the
maximum on the Eastern Shore. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts.

One bout of heavy rainfall in the very near term is expected
across southeast NY and portions of CT, while later development is
expected to the southwest which should ride up the boundary back
into the Tri-State area. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible
either from backbuilding, cell training, or mesocyclone formation.
This would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!561HsgHoovhJGCDmZDC2E_pWCy0S4tsZgvxXeQCpUJoX-3dWnt-8EqSI6a5c7Kxs3g_6PXJvnx9ZM4EzQ-f5HHXiuMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...BOX...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42207381 41417182 40047325 38317497 36967667
37007795 37737845 39087785 40327680

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 16:39:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181639
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-182237-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0767
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ, southern NV, & southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181637Z - 182237Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand with daytime
heating today. Hourly rainfall amounts to 2.5" could lead to
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Shower and thunderstorm activity from this morning is
declining in coverage and intensity. The low- to mid-level cloud
deck across portions of the region has mixed out/dissipated, which
is allowing daytime heating to further erode CIN across the
region. Confluent 700 hPa flow exists across portions of central
& southern AZ near the remaining convection. Precipitable water
values are high, 1.1" in the Mogollon Rim, 1.6-1.7" in southwest
UT and southern NV, and 2-2.2" in the lower deserts. Effective
bulk shear is <25 kts. ML CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg across AZ,
southernmost UT, and southernmost NV.

The expectation is for another 500-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE to
develop, causing an expansion of convective activity in short
order. Some warming at 700 hPa late this morning into this
afternoon could limit convective growth across portions of UT
somewhat. Where cells can train, becoming stationary, or merge,
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" would be possible. This could cause
scattered instances of flash flooding in arroyos/dry washes, box
canyons, burn scars, and urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6WfjpmMUTO1S6cVGkJkKbGSCMyXmEtFbR1G1aeYj3lXrBRIx6ohPHp3VHlxH_c8TpSS3TPDXSrhB6aAC9qWLDM-bP9M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39000825 37440787 37110978 36681032 35201013
33780790 31210858 31281127 32661349 35421545
36921571 38221417 38951211

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 16:53:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181653
FFGMPD
NYZ000-182051-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0768
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...western NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181651Z - 182051Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall could continue across western NY through
21z. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 5" are
possible which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorm progression is being held up to the
northeast of Buffalo within an instability gradient northeast of a
picket of 2000 J/kg ML CAPE. Other activity is generating
upstream across far southeast Ontario closer to the thermal
gradient/front. These storms are forming within a region of 850
hPa confluence. CIN is eroding here. Effective bulk shear is ~40
kts. Precipitable water values are 1.75" or so.

The guidance suggests that heavy rain issues could persist here
for another four hours. Given what's occurred thus far, hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 5" are possible where
cells train or mesocyclones form which could lead to flash
flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_0glvwVAVMG57GAa__7SzURQNq5u2usfPPyWaEbShptH-qa6r3F2sAX-9eMcvbQ0fZq7EM_F0V7GFDH2I0akM_PET4o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43637944 43457793 42987680 42397674 42197724
42507854 43458004

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 18:59:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181858
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0769
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico...Western Texas
Panhandle/Lower Pecos River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181900Z - 190030Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may congeal into
scattered clusters of thunderstorms in proximity to hydrophobic
'soils' across the west. Rates up to 1.5" with an isolated 2"/hr
further south and east through the Rio Grande Valley may allow for
localized 2-2.5" totals in less than 3hrs, resulting in possible
incident(s) of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW denote enhanced monsoonal moisture bleeding
through the Rio Grande Valley into the West Texas Panhandle into S
NM, while some weak upslope out of Lower Colorado moisture feed is
lifting eastward into SW NM. Overall these areas are around 1.5
to 1.75" TPWs and are generally in the upper 5th percentile in
moisture, though this is nearly 2-2.5 standard anomaly above
normal across the Pecos River Valley. Solid insolation through
the morning into early afternoon across the region has built
MLCAPEs to 3000 J/kg across northern Coahuila into the Lower Pecos
and capping has eroded fairly well across much of the southern
portion of the Trans-Pecos with deeper convective initiation near
the traditional peaks of the Davis and portions of the Big Bend
NP. Also, while instability is slightly lesser, but still more
than sufficient reaching near 1250-1500 J/kg across the Sacramento
Range, capping is eroding there as well and could be capable of
intense rain rates/totals in the next hour.

The placement of the closed upper low in the southern Permian
Basin is supporting both areas with solid divergence aloft to
allow for increased convective growth and localized moisture flux
into the cells. Rain rates should quickly enhanced toward 1.5"/hr
though may reach 2"/hr in those deepest moisture locations further
south and east. Cell motions will be generally slow and around
the periphery of the closed low and should allow for cells to
cluster and residency should increase at localized focused areas.
Duration should support widely scattered 1.5-2.5" totals, which
given harder, generally hydrophobic ground conditions will have
solid run-off and may result in widely scattered incident or two
of flash flooding. With time, cells in west Texas will lift
north and northward while cells in south-central NM will drop
south and westward

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8DwDP3Zg8XkDh3A-uijQE71eTPK2rnEPGbAdGXy-32rvsJfxF5RHa854j8AlkfTbSy-t7TQb7zcpY-sxNlD0zv_bSTE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34390530 34080462 32690434 31660351 31460215
31020123 29900083 29280091 29710170 29600248
29050286 28870345 29400432 30510507 30910583
31590648 31780797 32500775 33270704 33500661
34300607

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 20:07:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182007
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-190130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0770
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Souhtern Upstate NY...Northeast OH...Northern
PA...WV Stovepipe...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182000Z - 190130Z

SUMMARY...Progressive, but strong moisture flux convergence should
allow for quick but intense heavy rainfall. Mergers with
pre-frontal convection as well as storm-scale interactions for
repeating cores will be best opportunity for localized flash
flooding with additional 1-3" totals as the line passes through
early overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite show broadening dry slot along the
southern side of the deep closed low and associated jet streak.
Exiting lead vorticity and right entrance region to 90-100kt jet
streak across the St. Lawrence River Valley and Upstate NY
continue to aid broad scale ascent and WAA as the front lifts into
the Adirondacks and through the Catskills ahead of the crashing
upper-level height-falls. This limits the northward extent of
conditionally unstable air, across the middle to upper-Hudson
River Valley though some cells may tap weak 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE
to help maintain some intense rainfall pre-cursory to the
approaching cold front.

Surface analysis and GOES-E Visible imagery depict the front
exiting the Ontario Peninsula and entering Lake Erie oriented more
west to east under this weaker, anticyclonic rotor flow aloft, but
with solid southwest to west-southwest warm advective and high
moisture flux ahead of the front, the rapid veering to NW or NNW
flow provides very strong deep layer moisture convergence and with
1.75-2" total PWat resulting in very high flux and efficient
rainfall production with HRRR 15-minute totals forecast around
1.25-1.5" through central Upstate NY back into NE OH. The forward
progress should limit overall totals to less than 2", though.
However, RADAR and Visible shows a pre-frontal cluster of slower
west to east moving cells across PA; it is within this area that
mergers will pose the greatest potential as well as intersecting
areas that had already seen 1-2" with earlier rounds. While,
grounds are likely to have rebounded some, the increased upper
soil saturation may allow for increased run-off especially at the
quick-burst rates expected with the cold frontal line. Still,
spots of 1-3" (or overall daily totals to 3") may result in
localized widely scattered incident or two of flash flooding
through the early overnight period.

Western PA and far Eastern Ohio within the Allegheny upslope
regions also have naturally lower FFG values due to complex
terrain and broader urban centers than locations further east in
central PA, with hourly FFG values less than 1.5 (as low as .75")
and 1.5-2"/3hrs, increasing the potential here ever so slightly
more. Further east, FFG values reduce as well in the lower Hudson
and E Catskills; cells may reach this area after 00-01z and will
continue to watch trends for a subsequent MPD around that time.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8czCRWipJPSvkLYAB5-iS5dnll-NmBM595rdjrULDtO8sxI-Twet1E5ZKUYm9unIXDgax-qff4C8GVNNadw05mgMOX8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...OKX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43577625 43087509 42427371 41947345 41357398
41397525 40487704 39997833 39738049 39908153
40618259 41088255 41548196 42118075 42657930
43207904 43397845 43377714

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 20:51:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182050
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-190230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0771
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Southern Ohio...Much of West Virginia...Eastern
Kentucky...Far Southwest Virginia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182050Z - 190230Z

SUMMARY...Multiple quick moving lines favorably oriented for
scattered/random repeating into complex terrain and lower FFG of
the Cumberland Plateau and western upslope of the Appalachians.
Additional 1-3" totals pose localized flash flooding risk through
early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW suite along with surface and VWP
observations show broad area of deep layer moisture, conditionally
unstable air across the Ohio River valley being drawn
east-northeast into the Upper Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau and
lower slopes of the Appalachians. Broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and Total Pwats of 2-2.25" across S IND/OH and KY are being
advected on 20-25kts of flow within the broad warm sector
responding to the large scale closed low over Quebec diving into
the Northeast. Localized confluence/convergence has resulted in
generally west to east banded convective lines across the Ohio
River into W WV with further developing bands extending across W
OH into N IND ahead of the main cold front. While deep layer
steering from the WNW/NW will limit training in very
short-duration the propagation vectors will allow for multiple
bands to track through the area of concern for multiple rounds
with random intersecting of 1-1.5" totals with each line perhaps
reaching 3" through early overnight period, but will be highly
focused locally.

Each sub-hourly 1-1.5" burst is close, exceeding 1 hr FFG,
especially in the complex terrain of E KY/WV, but it is the 2-3"
potential over 2-4 hours that would have the higher potential
given initial upper soil saturation and reduced infiltration with
the second or third rounds. So all in all, isolated to widely
scattered incidents of flash flooding will continue to be possible
through the evening into the early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!975R03_WDwol_n2uR-FNd4KpNDktCI5OJH5siJXViE8PkFQyPqrmkDUqENhDcYWyeSgCHa8nwfJkR07RU5CDxwKS83Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39768304 39568157 39308019 38837973 38307988
37728041 37208087 36698155 36638276 36928433
38918460 39508399

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 21:16:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182116
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-190200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0772
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
515 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Mid-Atlantic from Southern NJ to
Southeast VA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182115Z - 190200Z

SUMMARY...Strong, heavy rainfall producing cells/clusters (up to
2"/hr) starting to clear the northern Mid-Atlantic, but enhanced
moisture and remaining unstable air southward continues to remain
a threat for localized 2-4" totals and possible localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR continue to show cells/cluster of
cold tops from the central NJ coast through central MD into with cooling/overshooting tops through the Necks of eastern VA to
south-central VA. CIRA LPW shows confluent deep layer moisture
streams along/ahead of the central Atlantic lee pressure trough
with surface to 850mb drawn north and confluent through central MD
with overlapping low to mid-level moisture from the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys providing well above average moisture resulting in a
corridor of 2-2.25" TPW values. Combine that with solid heating
throughout the day as the warm front lifted into Upstate NY and
through NYC this evening, providing solid instability. Initial
convection has mixed much of the higher values out, but there
remains solid 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across the Delmarva into SE
VA, though instability axis has nearly cleared the central NJ
coast.

Solid deep layer smoke also provides condensation nuclei for
smaller but more numerous rain-drops further increased rainfall production/efficiency. Rates of 2-2.5"/hr remain probable.
Combine this with storm interaction/convergence along coastal
boundaries, repeating is possible with a risk of localized 3-4"
total possible through the early overnight period. Minus the
urban centers around Richmond, Norfolk/Hampton Roads as well as
DC/Baltimore, Philly/Wilmington, totals of 3-4" may be required
given sandier soils and naturally higher FFG values. However,
urban FF will remain a threat given the efficient, high
instantaneous rainfall rates. As such, flash flooding is
considered possible and likely to be more localized and scattered
in nature for the remainder of the evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-CoUi6Xo1cHlAyZ9oef-WbwiIEuAHlQnO39FiaG212W1GP_UVjegg6OshgjfTz5Q5eZFzvJl-MdQcdWxjbN6aiVMS98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40187442 40117410 39757402 39077441 37167555
36627611 36557719 36577886 36607916 37177912
37677872 38327783 39037753 39347680 39807588
40087513

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 21:46:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182146
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-190300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0773
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Florida Panhandle...Southwest
Georgia...Ext. Southeast Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182145Z - 190300Z

SUMMARY...Colliding flow regimes with ample unstable/moist air can
support 2-2.5"/hr rates with slow, potential back-building
propagation to allow for spots of 3-4" totals and possible rapid
inundation flooding through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E imagery loop shows MCV that grew upscale to
deep layered closed low over the northeast Gulf is providing
enhanced southerly to southeasterly strongly convergent flow with
northerly stream across AL/GA. Initial convection across
east-central AL, quickly produced an well maintained outflow
boundary that has begun to impinge on the return flow from the
deep layer cyclone. Solid 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE resides along
and upstream of the strong convergence zone into SW GA and
thunderstorm activity has recently begun in increase in
coverage/intensity with a few cooling tops to below -65C. The
strong convergence and increased inflow from the north has
resulted in backed propagation vectors to suggest northerly or
northeasterly back-building, nearly 180 degrees from the deep
layer steering. This may allow for SW to NE orientated
repeating/training to increase localized residency. Given deep
layer moisture is also pooled with 2-2.25" of total PWats and deep
warm layer should allow for efficient rainfall production with up
to 2.5"/hr rates becoming possible.

Visible imagery also shows solid convergence along the
remnant/stalled portion of the outflow boundary from Webster to
Fayette county. Steering flow is even weaker here and slow
eastward shifts into the surface moisture convergence should allow
for some tilting of the updrafts (note 20-25kts of effective bulk
shear to reduce collocation of up/downdrafts). As such spots of
3-4" are possible and while this is in the vicinity of FFG, those
values do decrease toward the north into the
instability/convergence axis. As such, a scattered incident or
two of low-end/localized flash flooding is considered possible
through the late evening/early overnight period in the FL/AL/GA
border region.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Zy8AgMZivR3yJIP-BG6HIag-ZirMbyKcApghsrTgmyvuXr4SIsevgIP8wVyLyP5vVzR-OQctBde_lTuGobeUeVZKL8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32668461 32568356 31268319 30618419 29858519
30118584 30388624 30978605 31378507

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 22:24:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182223
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-190400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0774
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Northern Arizona... West-central and Southwest
New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182225Z - 190400Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding continues as cells congeal into
larger clusters and increasing rainfall efficiency and local
residency times. Rates of 1-1.5" remain possible with spots up
to 2" possibly resulting in widely scattered localized flash
flooding through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows deep layer ridge axis over
central UT extending southwest into S NV and the Lower Colorado
River Valley. A broad entrance region to a 45kt 250mb jet covers
much of the San Francisco Plateau providing a few areas of
enhanced divergence. These generally align with developing
mid-level vorticity centers... one over the western Mogollon Rim
responding to expanding convective cluster as well as secondary
over west-central NM. Visible imagery shows a convectively
enhanced 'outflow boundary' that is lifting north and east out of
the lower Valley through the Mogollon Rim into the eastern San
Francisco Plateau from I-15 eastward before arching southeast then
south across E NM into the Mogollon and Brushy Mountains. This is
actually drawing higher moisture from the valley with Tds
increasing into the mid to upper 50s with spot 60s.

However, it is the enhanced 850 to 700mb Tds along and north of
the Mogollon Rim that are providing the weak to moderate flux into
the developing clusters to help increase rainfall production;
though reducing the inverted V profile in the sub-cloud will
reduce evaporation loss and increase rainfall rates up to
1-1.5"/hr through 00z tonight. South of the Rim, the 850mb Tds dry
out sufficiently to likely reduce potential to maintain convection
too far off the Rim into the Sun Valley or Lower Colorado River
valley.

Combine the enhanced mid-level moisture with broader updraft
ascent along the outflow due to convergence and increased
residency may allow for localized spots up to 2"+. The rates
alone are suffice for localized flash flooding, but slightly
broader 1-2" footprints may allow for intersection of upper
reaches of watersheds for some slightly increased coverage toward
nightfall.

At this time, the clusters will likely propagate north and
westward across N AZ and generally westward off the terrain in W
NM; generally following the vorticy centers as they migrate along
the southern periphery of the bean-shaped ridge.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9uAvhEjHc3AaS72ifsjWA_EDIDKxRHEvHl4ttakusbQOKFhbMWRUJSn78ehvzThPtsyqYDMBdhDAC9MJArRkC_dlYjM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36911293 36881219 36711104 36260974 35760863
34820774 34030728 33300702 32590707 32120736
31860802 32090891 32970944 33470976 33971053
34141148 34111259 34311328 34611400 35241448
36391430 36811364

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 23:22:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182321
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-190500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0775
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...Southern Cap Rock/Rolling
Plains of Northwest Texas...Far Southwest Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182320Z - 190500Z

SUMMARY...Ample deep layer moisture/instability with limited
steering flow allowing for 2"/hr rates, totals of 2-3.5" to occur
resulting in scattered incidents of localized flash flooding.
This is likely to continue through the remainder of the evening
into early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Persistent stationary closed low over the Northern
Permian Basin continues to provide weakly divergent flow across
the Cap Rock and Rolling Plains. Ample full insolation through
mid-afternoon brought sufficient heating with mid 90s along the
northwest edge of deeper layer remnant moisture off the Gulf where
Tds were will into the upper 50s and even mid-60s across Northwest
Texas. This provides and continues to provide conditionally
unstable air with axis of 2000+ J/Kg of MLCAPE from MAF to CDS
into SW OK. Initial convection was widely scattered in nature and
given proximity to the center (downshear on northeast side,
precisely), deep layer steering was 0-5kts allowing for solid
residency time, though cold pools did develop and outflows have
triggered additional flanking development. Currently, Goes-E
visible and 10.3um shows numerous additional flanking development
along these outflow, slowly expanding outward from the center of
the Cap Rock with the ring from Roosevelt/Eddy county in NM across
Dawson to the east side extending from Garza, TX to Harmon/Greer
county OK. Given still limited lack of overall steering, cells
have are averaging about 1-1.5 hours before cycling of new
development further into the remaining instability axis. Deeper
moisture also has allowed for slowly increasing rain rates and
therefore totals starting to reach 2"/hr in the smaller cores
though much of the downdraft is 1.5"+ now, resulting in spots of
2-3.5".

Slightly increasing southerly/southeasterly inflow from the
unstable axis out of the Rolling Plains, may see a bit more
southeastward propagation along the next outflow cycle but also
start to push cells into lower FFG values and more recently
compromised soil conditions toward the northern Concho Valley and
western Big Country. Still, intense, efficient rates and slow
motions are possible to continue focused/localized scattered
incidents of flash flooding across the area of concern likely
starting to fade as instability reduces after 03-05z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_q4TLHZy4rBpkvBWNZ4P75UJcFBhkRZQtWH8fmnpWX9rR9KpwPQYQc_pq6EQg-Z9uUkvKRu5fgcl2nUULVGQ6L2M3GI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35349913 34929870 34049888 33019975 31890121
31820272 32300393 33190430 34460372 34490292
33740250 33800182 34190140 34370086 34739997

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 00:38:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190038
FFGMPD
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-190600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0776
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
837 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Southern New England & Long Island...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190040Z - 190600Z

SUMMARY...Over-running showers/thunderstorms aligning for
increasing training potential of moderate to occasionally heavy
rainfall (rates 1.5-2"/hr). Localized 2-3.5" totals may result in
scattered flash flooding potential through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis shows warm front is slowly
progressing through the Hudson River Valley but bends due east
parallel to the southern coast of Long Island. However,
southeasterly flow from the warm conveyor belt off the
Mid-Atlantic Coastal region with well above average low level
moisture (surface Tds to mid-70s) is confluent with low to
mid-level flow streaming out of the Ohio Valley and through
Allegheny Plateau into southern New England. High theta-E air
just above the surface through isentropic ascent and steepening
lapse rates further aloft (600-400mb) provide ample 2000+ J/kg
MUCAPE. Given confluence of the streams there is solid mass
convergence along/north of the front for slightly elevated
convective development over the last few hours. As cold front
approaches from the northwest along with upper-level height-falls
should continue to support moisture flux convergence along the
north-south oriented warm front for upstream redevelopment as
well.

Given total PWats of 2-2.5" should allow for efficient rainfall
production, combined with smoke helping raindrop nucleation with
more numerous smaller rain-drops for collision/coalescence
processes may increase rainfall efficiency toward 2"/hr. Given
deep layer steering above 700mb is also allowing for
repeating/training elements across S CT, RI and Long Island; there
is potential for localized 2-3.5" rainfall totals. This is in the
range of the 1 to 3 hour FFG values (2-2.5" and 2-4",
respectfully) suggesting scattered incident or two of flash
flooding will remain possible. This only increases within
hydrophobic urban environments.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-a8wUUaP0wsDF2r1Ua58ryjpxhtN8csUSiH2koYdrbZ5oGiXfx9jTGUIg-zJEViPXzxBmumsTR4i0pbdobWtAKdzVi0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42167286 42157142 42027005 41676988 41216992
41167066 40887203 40657332 41097383 41497411
41997413

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 01:11:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190110
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-190600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0777
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Eastern OH...Southwestern & South-central
PA...Northern WV...Ext Western MD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190110Z - 190600Z

SUMMARY...General weakening of convective line is expected, though
upslope flow through Allegheny Plateau along favorably oriented
pre-frontal convergence. axis will allow for continued training
through already saturated/low FFG areas. Incidents of flash
flooding possible to continue through overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of deep layer cyclone is
exiting across southwest Quebec with an elongated positive tilt
trough extending through Lower Michigan. As such the cold front
has generally slowed nearing the southern Lake Erie shoreline and
northeastward through Lake Ontario. Convection along the cold
front has disconnected into a pre-frontal convergence trof with a
weak meso-low near State College, PA with the trailing boundary
back to the surface wave in western Lake Erie. This orientation
is not ideal but close to deep layer steering to allow for
training/repeating elements across it. Though instability is
waning with lose of daytime heating; the upwind environment across
northern Ohio remains deeply moist with some Temp/Dewpoint
depressions for modestly conditionally unstable air with MLCAPEs
still at 1500-2000 J/kg. This should help to maintain ongoing
convection though convergence will reduce in coverage and
therefore strength of convective activity should similarly reduce.
Total PWats of 2" and this instability could help to maintain
rates up to 2"/hr, but should be slacking toward 1-1.5" by 03-04z.

Upslope convergence through eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania is
likely to help maintain some additional development along the
upwind edge, this also is moving through the lowest FFG values
across the region, one due to naturally steep/rugged slopes, but
also recent heavy rainfall from earlier rounds. As such, hourly
values in the range of 1.5" and 3hr values of 1.5-2.5" still
remain in reach of being exceeded and as such, the risk remains
through 06z of an isolated to widely scattered incident or two of
flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4mKo0eaTylgvGzpNhbNZS2XbAUCCdApuQ0UXhIN0TErqHEFuxjoSa4T8MukTp8klIgt13gRHUqGMV0F1PCdz7UBowz4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41398234 41118116 41107935 41007857 40487691
40117695 40007739 39607884 38887957 39038039
40058178 40818264 41228273

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 03:00:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190300
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-190558-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0778
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...far southeastern Alabama through central Georgia
and extreme western/upstate South Caroilna

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190258Z - 190558Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible for
another 2-3 hours or so (through 06Z/2a eastern).

Discussion...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms continue to
focus along a general axis from near Columbus, GA
north-northeastward through Macon and Anderson, SC. The storms
are focused along a deformation zone through this axis tied to the
eastern Gulf disturbance currently centered about 130 miles south
of Apalachicola. Convection is in an environment with about
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, weak convective inhibition, and 2-2.3 inch
PW values, supporting very heavy rainfall with the most persistent
activity. Weak steering flow was supporting slow storm movement,
and spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were noted per MRMS data
particularly across central GA. These rates are enough to prompt
isolated instances of flash flooding especially in low spots
and/or urban areas. The ongoing threat will persist for at least
another couple hours, with models/CAMs suggestive of a gradual
decrease in convective coverage/intensity after 04Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9HiAQAFknK2KO9U_pXItpkUfusjnsz3j5J6nk2mRYjh25d6KaZb8pbicB3PqL0skwUyKZGMKzx_EZtd41GA0Snu_SCQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34968242 34018271 32058377 31158481 31658577
32998505 34778346

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 11:46:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191146
FFGMPD
FLZ000-191744-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0779
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of the FL West Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191144Z - 191744Z

Summary...Periods of banding around the east side of a tropical
disturbance have the potential for hourly rain amounts to 3",
which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Bands of showers and thunderstorms have occasionally
organized near the West Coast of FL within a region of confluent
850 hPa flow south of Tampa Bay around the east side of a
developing tropical disturbance, which has been growing in size
over the past couple of days while edging west-northwest.
Precipitable water values of 2-2.25" lie here. Effective bulk
shear of 30 kts exists, higher than yesterday, which is leading to
the banding. An ML CAPE gradient exists along the coast, with
2000-3000 J/kg offshore.

The guidance indicates an increasing signal for heavy rainfall in
this area with time, extending to at least 18z. Any banding that
persists for an hour or so would be capable of 3" an hour totals
in this environment. There is concern that the west-northwest
drift could counter the tendancy for rainbands to extend farther
from the center of the warm core system, and that bands could get
stuck at times. Given the heavy rain potential, there could be
flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!70exXHihiLF4ZYufPUGVGJmtnqhU3gi-6x-i9t4Dwq6vgxB59ElSQMzya66f5WsKmQ9pnZgKGQEpmuuam03r8DYCwkI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28098240 26958186 25838122 25578132 25658165
25948188 26568234 27228265 27938289

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 12:25:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191225
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-191823-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0780
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...in and near Middle TN & portions of AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191223Z - 191823Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across portions of the region. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" could
lead to isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Convective activity is forming across Middle TN and
portions of eastern AL within a region of confluent 850 hPa flow.
Gulf moisture has taken the long way around and is invading from
the north; precipitable water values are 1.75-2" per GPS data. MU
CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg, and MUCIN has recently been decreasing.
Effective bulk shear is roughly 15 kts.

The expectation is for CIN to erode and convective expansion to
ensue by 15z. As thunderstorms grow in coverage, incidents of
cell mergers and cell training are possible, which in this
environment could lead to hourly amounts to 2.5". Isolated
occurrences of flash flooding would be possible, most likely in
urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7FqGIA5P4zKWr6N2NfjiQGbEwshRZ6sNc2n2nb9w3NKSA_C1j5bysugc__0WMlUkrYih47yRQOawNGuvoApOPrLQYP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MEG...MOB...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36358770 35638626 34728534 32818496 31688595
31788712 32778800 34518776 35658857

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 15:52:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191552
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-192150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0781
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...in and near AZ & southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191550Z - 192150Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will soon develop across
portions of AZ and southwest UT. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are
possible, which could cause widely scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...An MCV is apparent near Wickenburg AZ, which is
drifting westward. To its east and north, sunny skies are leading
to cumulus development. Preciptable water values are 1.9-2" in
the lower deserts, and 0.9" in the Mogollon Rim. Pockets of ML
CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg exist across southernmost NV and southeast
AZ. An inverted trough in the wind field exists at 700 hPa,
extending from southeast AZ into southwest UT.

ML CAPE should rise towards 1500 J/kg this afternoon, which along
with decreasing CIN should allow for convective expansion,
primarily across AZ though southern NV and southwest UT can't be
ruled out. Like yesterday, 700 hPa temperature rise above 15C
across the entirety of UT this afternoon, so believe convective
coverage will be less/the atmosphere will be more capped farther
to the north. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are supported by the
available ingredients, which could occur due to cell mergers,
possible cell training, or stalled convection within any trough
axes that materialize. This could lead to widely scattered flash
flooding in urban areas, burn scars, arroyos/dry washes, and slot
canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8EsipVY8Q6pGIbppvvzI6KAfUo1ukwiUOAe6yGEAHHwh6ZzDZaZ1Zk8JESj_BtJbXTrZxX9_qoKWXRil1SjSXw2xI8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38911216 38261134 37451080 36750909 35280878
34430838 33070783 31840882 31570881 31200956
31491125 33361318 35031462 37261519 38471420

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 16:16:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191615
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-192214-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0782
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1214 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern VA & eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191614Z - 192214Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across portions of VA & southeast NC. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
and local totals to 5" are possible, which could lead to widely
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...CIN is eroding regionally, which has led to recent
shower and thunderstorm formation within a region of broad 850 hPa
confluence near and ahead of an incoming frontal boundary and lee
trough. Precipitable water values are near or over 2". ML CAPE
of 1500-3500 J/kg lie across the area and is increasing.
Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to organize and broaden in
scale with time. A combination of cell mergers, training, and
mesocyclone formation could lead to hourly rain amounts up to 2.5"
and local totals to 5". Flash flood guidance values are fairly
high here, so the primary impact of heavy rainfall is expected to
be an urban areas. Flash flooding occurrences are expected to be
widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5kVYDPqZB7MVkjdaT5RX7DzL_yE1CkqG32Wom0AksZ4IPMM8Mh19lMSS24HYxru6u_EFbP__luHKGUzt6lOvkPonzxI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38187846 37767766 36857580 35387537 34567635
33957751 33967843 34017856 34978016 36147906
37897979

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 16:36:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191635
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-192234-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0783
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...parts of the Southern Appalachians & Cumberland
Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191634Z - 192234Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
could also spread into the region from the west. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash
flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are forming south of an
incoming front and west of a lee trough within a regime of moist
west-northwest low-level flow into portions of the Cumberland
Plateau & Southern Appalachians. Effective bulk shear of 25+ kts
is moving in from the north. ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg exists
here. Precipitable water values of 1.7-2" lie across the region,
per GPS data.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in
coverage. Three hourly flash flood guidance is modest to low in
the area, and some of the region has rugged topography. Due to
cell mergers and training, hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are
possible. Flash flooding is expected to be isolated to widely
scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!44DanMZHk3LSLZl1N2vJ3Vo0UPE_dgm63UGdfLtolT4xJBz9sbEmrO1PvBSJVeMnQdAHXK-pDunJRWVtB5ZfiHo1wys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37678047 37127981 35888096 34298316 33328500
34588582 35788611 36918502 37588199

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 17:26:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191726
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-192324-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0784
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Mid-MS Valley & Lower OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191724Z - 192324Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are forming across portions of
southern MO and southern IL. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A wavy frontal zone stretched across portions of MO
and KY is starting to act as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Aloft, an upper level trough is nearby. There is
850 hPa confluence out of the west-northwest here. Precipitable
water values are ~2". ML CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Effective bulk
shear is ~20 kts.

The guidance suggests broad scale convective development, now that
CIN has eroded. The ingredients available support hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" and the 12z REFS/HREF support local maxima of 4"
in this area. Portions of MO and western KY have modest three
hourly flash flood guidance that could be exceeded here in an
isolated to widely scattered basis. Flash flooding is possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8AJgpRHKn73ucJ2dHPyaOm1nxRUODm2PQTs6mfCQNUomIlEMsm46qflzesGBZ7OuSQXPnTm04pGO-icCQXalTc-HEOg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...MRX... OHX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39589417 39059090 37878729 36958473 35898484
35538601 35758851 36499241 37659546 38159666

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 17:44:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191744
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-192342-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0785
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...in and near portions of AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191742Z - 192342Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
beginning to consolidate in the vicinity of Birmingham. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...A wedge of showers and thunderstorms are pointing
down a low-level confluence zone across central AL. Precipitable
water values of 2" are so exist here. ML CAPE is 2500-3000 J/kg.
Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts.

The 12z HREF/REFS guidance suggests that the heavy rain area
should continue propagating down the confluence zone between
Tropical Depression Two and a low-level ridge offshore the western
Gulf Coast. Cell mergers between the mass and thunderstorms and
thunderstorms in advance of the cluster are likely to bring hourly
rain amounts up to 2.5", which would primarily be problematic in
urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4sOQmfbB2M4ekTDjgILcpXfpkaMQMgziGDj6lZHC0vU3U0eO9m7U86Fwp6_7PV8eKmkvHqANqTiwJlaYIyP6CZLMNqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34178778 33868405 31138611 30078665 30098809
30238884 32218848

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 18:16:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191816
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0786
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico...Western Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191815Z - 200000Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered, slow moving thunderstorms capable of
1.5"/hr rates and isolated spot of 2"+ in 2-3hrs may result in
focused localized incident(s) of flash flooding, especially near
burn-scars and steeper terrain.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of fairly stationary
closed low is near the western Jeff Davis/NW Presidio county line
with an inverted trof to the northeast with a secondary vorticity
cennter near Andrews County. These features, remnants of last
night's convective activity still have more debris along the
eastern side of the circulation througth the Pecos River Valley,
but otherwise, the area of southern NM and W TX have seen solid
insolation to bring temperatures into the 80s on their way warmer.
18z surface analysis shows much of the area with surface Tds
remaining in the low 60s...though mid-60s are located in the
slightly lower elevation further east. CIRA LPW does show a pool
of enhanced but not overly anomolous moisture in the 850-700mb and
700-500mb layers centered along just west of the main upper-low
center in W Texas. Inflow is generally weak but overall confluent
along the upper-low axis which is also generally aligned with the
700mb trough as well, providing moisture flux for TPWs to slowly
inch up from 1.25-1.5" toward 1.5-1.75" over the next few hours.

Currently, mountain circulation/convergence is driving first
convetive initiation, especially along the Sacramento and
Guadelupe/Delaware Mountains just south of the SE NM border.
Visible imagery shows other ranges (further west in SW NM and
protions of the Mexican Ranges south of the Big Bend NP) becoming
more congested as well. Instability is is steadily increasing to
1000+ J/kg but likely to reach 1500+ J/kg through mid-afternoon.
As such, convective activity may be a bit more scattered in nature
than yesterday, but still vigorous enough with ample moisture to
support updrafts capable of 1.5"/hr. Upper-level flow from the
northwest across NM and near El Paso, may have opportunity to
track more than one cell through a given location to aid overall
rainfall totals, but very near the upper-low/700mb axis, cell
motions of 5kts may allow for longer residency to support spots of
2"+ in about 2 hours. Given limited soils/rocky, hydrophobic
ground conditions, most will be in run-off and given rates would
have potential for localized/focused incident or two of widely
scattered flash flooding this afternoon into evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_kTM9f4YZ8Na86ZxAfR4KRPtyRggFjLHpgKm0yx2z90r07GDHnkbvcsJ7q8ZEe7WBKrd1SUfQ6pZPgzvEgRdN2IJSHw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33980614 33640427 33280355 32940313 32420219
31640210 31060245 30360231 29920223 29540260
29410267 29000293 28910339 29020391 29640471
30780546 31530645 31670739 31640798 31240822
31230884 31580898 32360881 33600783

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 20:38:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192038
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-200230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0787
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
437 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Northwest A...Southwest to Central UT... Adj
Southeast NV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192040Z - 200230Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding risk continues with monsoon
convection. Rates of 1.5"/hr and localized totals of 2".

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows center of mid-level wave near
Yavapai county with an inverted comma trough arching northwest
before angling back through south central UT. Here the trough
aloft is weaker but aligned with the main orographic ranges of
south-central to central UT. Strong thunderstorms are starting to
cluster a bit and cooling below -50C to a few isolated spots of
-60C, as weak mid-level confluence combined with normal
orographic/mountain cycle have maximized moisture flux to support
1.25"/hr rates with small hail given strength of updrafts.

Further south along, just east of the inverted trough axis,
increased insolation is helping to erode the remaining modest
capping across the western Mogollon/San Francisco Plateau.
SBCAPEs up to 2500 J/kg and modest return moisture through the
lower Colorado river reaching 1.25". Isolated CBs will become
more numerous in the next hour or so across the region, likely to
expand into smaller clusters that will advance westward into the
Colorado Valley. Rates will likely reach to 1.5"/hr with an
isolated 1.75" possible, though increasing coverage and slight
upscale growth in weak but sufficient right entrance divergence
(southwest moving jet along southern side of larger scale ridge in
UT) should allow for some possible repeating or increased
residency for spots of 2"+. Overall coverage is modest and
extreme moisture is not present to have confidence in larger areas
of flash flooding, but there should continue to be the risk of
widely scattered to scattered localized/focused incidents of
flooding given the rocky, hydrophobic ground conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!730ysaEYHxN0ax-YuEtk960RUbdbdNoBYrJNaSkcis7z3TZU07_Z_TkT-v_aSwk_m_SEIbKPAAD7uIMlF2xGU0OSCKY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40231179 40141110 39601079 38631112 38221135
36181175 35061163 34241235 34331346 34891454
36881506 38391428 39451314 39661276

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 20:59:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192059
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-200230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0788
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Arizona...Western New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192100Z - 200230Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of thunderstorms within broad
northwesterly flow may allow for cell mergers/repeating given
slightly favorable upstream redevelopment environment. Still
Rates of 1.25-1.5"/hr may support some longer residency/repeats
for a spot or two of 2-2.5", but intense enough rates should
support scattered incidents of possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts the center of the synoptic
ridge over Northern UT into Northern CO, while a leading shortwave
is sliding slowly westward along the SW edge currently centered
near Yavapai county. However, stronger mid-level easterly flow
across the southern Plains into northern NM, slightly descends and
helps to sharpen the 700mb ridge across the W Texas Panhandle
toward the Rolling Plains of NW Texas. This provides solid
slightly confluent northeasterly mid-level flow to increase
moisture flux into the core of 850-700mb moisture axis that is
pooled along the Mogollon Rim through SW NM. Additionally, the
influence of the exiting lead shortwave is providing weak but
sufficient upslope flow into the eastern Mogollon Rim and eastward
to intersect for solid upslope ascent through SE AZ mountain
ranges and weakly into the Mogollon Mtns and Black Range of SW NM.

Solid morning to early afternoon insolation across areas of mid
50s to lower 60s surface Tds, support 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE.
So weak convergence is sufficient to break out stronger
thunderstorms across many of the ranges, but with inflow from the
northeast as well, additional ascent should allow for increasing
upstream coverage as well, and slow forward (westward) propagation
sufficiently to allow for increased residency times. Deep layer
moisture of 1.75 to 1.5" (in higher terrain) should allow for
solid rates of 1.5"/hr perhaps isolated 1.75" as sub-cloud
evaporation reduces with initial rainfall. Spots of 1.5-2" are
likely to be scattered in coverage mainly along the Mogollon Rim
and southward and widely scattered across the eastern San
Francisco Plateau. Expanding clusters, repeating may allow for an
isolated to widely scattered spots of 2-2.5" totals. Incidents of
flash flooding are possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4HTAtGJ7KMR6UQ2TdLe36i1s4Z9G6vpev8aS4ZDifZgqrefgbigLy75F_kp0_zKHAaqdcT-U50AqRKdenRnShZtvB6k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36681035 36450940 35540865 34120836 32170773
31220822 31200956 31671016 32621030 33351060
33841118 34231188 35001155 36161144

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 22:31:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192231
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-200400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0789
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
630 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Southern Virginia...Much of North
Carolina...Parts of Northern South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192230Z - 200400Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for highly efficient, intense
rainfall with rates of 2.5"/hr possible with some
training/repeating elements suggest a widely scattered incident of
2-4" and possible flash flooding remains through early overnight.

DISCUSSION...A broad frontal zone exists across southern Virgina
through North Carolina with a few weak surface waves dotted upon
it from the central Applachians through the coastal plain. A very
moist environement, particularly in the lowest levels where Tds in
the mid to upper 70s still even remain post frontal across far southern/southeast VA. However, CIRA LPW denotes core of highest
PW exists generally from Asheville across central NC especially
700mb and above; with total PWats over 2.5" approaching 2.75"
along/between the eastern Sounds along the coast. Temperatures
remain above 90 supporting very high unstable environment;
however, due to the ill-focused surface front with a few west to
east bands of convergence resulted in a few clusters of
thunderstorms this afternoon, that have lead to a scattering of
more stabilized areas and local convergence is fairly limited.
The only exception to this in the boundary layer is near a
lee-pressure trof from the weak surface wave near KRDU
south-southwestwarrd into the Piedmont of central SC; where some
10-15kt southerly winds are feeding toward the low.

Given the flow above the boundary layer is fairly unidirectional
in that moisture plume noted in LPW, convergence may be the
limiting factor toward broader convective activity. Still, there
will remain scattered to widely scattered pockets enough to break
through with new development or along/proximal to ongoing
convective lines. The moisture loading through depth will
continue to allow for extreme rainfall rates with 2.5"/hr likely,
and possible higher rates to 3"/hr. The unidirectional flow and
history has shown some west to east elongation to allow for some
residency up to 1.5-2 hours which suggest localized 2-4" totals
are probable through the early overnight period, with potential
increasing from west to east, maximizing along the Coastal Plain.

The overall coverage and potential will slowly diminsh with loss
of day-time heating, but any intersection with urban locations in
far SE VA, north-central NC or toward Charlotte will present the
most probable incident of flash flooding due to the sheer
rain-rate magnitude and hydrophobic ground conditions. But even a
rural training of 1-2hrs could still pose those higher totals and
low-end flash flooding concerns. As such, environment remains
primed for possible widely scattered flash flooding tonight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-D1cjUrMLRXqvETZxYo_zPm3CiKWDE-SdOBq3Zc29AY5xJa3itmA08o4tIs5ppAvPUZgPwW759uROP-aYyywsGY7l5Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37507740 37057592 35707541 35127549 34637624
34427860 34498006 34888158 35678216 36338164
36718087 37217905

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 22:57:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192257
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0790
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
656 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Tennessee...Northeast MS...Northwest AL...Far
Southern KY...Far Northeast AR...MO Bootheel...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192300Z - 200400Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of scattered slow moving thunderstorms
along/ahead of the front, as well as, along western edge of
outflow from earlier thunderstorms in N AL. Rates of 2.5"/hr and
spots of 2.5" are likely to result in localized/focused incidents
of flash flooding through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW shows multiple layers of overlapped
anomalously high moisture along and south of the slow sagging cold
front dropping out of the Missouri Valley into southern Kentucky
and across to North Carolina. The peripheral band of drier air is
wrapping along the northern and northeastern side of the deeper
cyclone associated with T.D.2 well south in the Gulf. This
southeasterly flow is impeding the eastward advection and helping
to pool higher Total PWat values up to 2.5-2.6" across western TN
into Middle TN. It is the convergence entering Middle Tennessee
due to the split in the flow that has maximized convergence south
of the front for increased convective converge in the last hour or
so. With low to mid-90s F and Tds in the mid 70s, MLCAPEs remain
from 2500-3500 J/kg to support vigorous updrafts. While inflow is
generally at 10-15kts, the deep mass piling is supportive of
highly efficient rainfall production with 2.5"/hr rates
occasionally reaching higher toward 3" locally. Mean
northwesterly flow at 5-10kts and confused propagation vectors
across Middle and Eastern TN toward the east at 5kts and more due
south across Western TN into N MS due to the thickness ridge in N
AL; support slow motions and some convergence of cells for
possible short-term mergers/cluster development. As such, spots
of 2-4" are becoming more likely mainly across Middle TN.
Eventually, instability will wane with loss of heating but also
some mixing of more stable mixed air from earlier convection out
of N AL, that cells should weaken across Middle and eastern TN
after 02-03z. Upstream, a bit more longevity is possible.

Flash flooding is likely to be limited in areal coverage due to
the widely scattered to scattered nature of the cells, but given
hourly FFG values of 1.5-2", especially further east, incidents of
localized flash flooding will remain likely into the early
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9fcocPrL_r_aTSs5Oe_QGZfMa2h5QC4zi3NsC80MXH7aEWOlgqX5vVsAx6aT6BY84Acdx8W5AR4GVI-L_wcPmIS_wIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37148943 37038798 36878644 36538464 36408289
35568399 35108468 35288588 35388667 35148735
34148780 32848783 32408810 32598890 34878932
35508976 36599038

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 23:32:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192332
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-200500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0791
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico...Western Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192330Z - 200500Z

SUMMARY...Risk of widely scattered thunderstorms capable of
1.5"/hr rates and localized 2" totals continues. Isolated flash
flooding potential remains.

DISCUSSION...Mid to upper-level shortwave continues to be main
driver for slow convective cell motions and has only shifted
slightly southeast in the Big Bend region of west Texas; likewise
the 700mb low has slightly shifted just west of its upper-level
pattern resulting in slightly enhanced convergence along the Rio
Grande in near the Big Bend and with pooled 850-700mb moisture
across the US/Mexico border from AZ to the Pecos River outlet;
moisture flux to any develop will remain capable of supporting
1-1.5"/hr rates. Cell motions near the low will continue to be
5kts at most allowing for some continued residency for maybe a
spot or two of near 2".

Further west, an easterly upper-level jet turns southwestward
across NM and broadens with exit diffluence across SW NM providing
some continued outflow enhancement to a band of mid-level
convergence that continues to advance southwest from W-central NM
toward El Paso and eventually to the main shortwave. Strong
thunderstorms are utilizing the convergence and remaining
instability pocket through the moisture axis as well, to redevelop
on older outflows, but there is a closing window before
propagating over to Old Mexico. However, there remains a small
pocket of unmixed conditionally unstable air over the southwest
Boot-heel of NM. RAP analysis suggests 1500-2000 J/kg remains and
HRRR and NAM-Nest continue to suggest converging outflows for a
broadening expansion of the thunderstorms toward a larger cluster.
Upper level environment is favorable for this upscale growth, so
some increased organization could favor a broader area of 1.5-2"+
totals and focused flash flooding risk toward nightfall.

All considered localized flash flooding will remain possible into
the early overnight period for much of the NM/W TX borderlands.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7gk0V1dkZJ0zxEykXX0VhiZMCKbPvvteyjh3qMx9lkDoQDZPfBj7QrBncbM4gMfs43TW9o8qdnl9Lnzvrc12N_fcC9M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33100883 33000789 32220552 32360420 32300321
31510270 30920243 30190230 29730238 29250271
28840307 29100380 29510448 30040490 30860565
31540676 31640771 31300802 31170868 31480903
32160897

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 02:22:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200221
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-200520-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0792
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1020 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200220Z - 200520Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will persist for another
2-3 more hours or so (through 05Z/11p mountain).

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to migrate slowly
westward in a climatologically favorable environment for heavy
rainfall. Storms are on the southern periphery of a mid/upper
ridge centered over UT/CO, providing weak easterly steering flow
aloft. Meanwhile, storms continue to migrate slowly in an
environment characterized by ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1-1.5 inch PW
values. Spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates continue on an isolated
basis with clusters in northwest and southeast AZ, which should be
enough for local excessive runoff issues in
terrain-favored/low-lying areas. Storms remain isolated though,
and models/CAMs suggest that existing activity should wane in
coverage and intensity through 05Z/11p mountain time -- likely due
to nocturnal boundary layer cooling. The isolated flash flood
risk will also wane a bit after that time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_MDHdpnSKoV5Wr_3cNi6WFPE67RkrqRfQcu_c4g-LUPQuLqnt8Cv2Sx2dkbz65a1642L_3F7pXkxP1k75Js9ARKwgGM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36681387 36571269 36011213 34841111 33810969
32730925 31700933 31341000 31631096 33911383
34681447 35971463

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 03:47:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200347
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-200944-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0793
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200344Z - 200944Z

Summary...A persistent, nearly stationary convective complex will
continue to pose a heavy rainfall risk across the discussion area
for several more hours.

Discussion...Scattered convection is persistent across southern NC
between Charlotte and Fayetteville. The storms are being
sustained by a reinforced cold pool generally extending from
Kannapolis to Chesterfield, SC. The edge of this cold pool was
nearly stationary while oriented perpendicular to 15kt
southwesterly 850mb flow, promoting persistent convergence.
Furthermore, the low-level flow was maintaining transport of 1500
J/kg MLCAPE and 1.9 inch PW air into the convective region,
supporting deep and slow-moving updrafts with persistent rainfall
rates. 3-hour totals of 3-4 inches have been estimated per MRMS
in a few spots (particularly in Stanly/Richmond Counties and
surrounding areas). With weak/subtle mid-level waves providing
ascent across the region, it appears that a few more hours of
heavy rainfall will persist in this region, with local convective
trends modulated by the slow movement of the western edge of the
cold pool.

Given the trends, flash flooding is likely on a localized basis.
Additional rainfall totals of 3-4 inches are possible through at
least 08Z/4a eastern, resulting in a excessive runoff and local
impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9GfVjmCXm1HAkB23SoLbfyH_L5uUv4R9YVfAjwmsRWdymIfTZFmqg0CGZeLqCjESB6y9emBPCecuh0mU9fqZcopC-iI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35847998 35687843 35267782 34697790 34537921
34678090 35238133 35628099

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 14:18:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201418
FFGMPD
FLZ000-201900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0794
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1017 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...Big Bend region of Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201416Z - 201900Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms will gradually expand onshore and
pivot N/NW through the morning. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr are likely
at times, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts.
Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Tropical Depression #2 is positioned across the
northeast Gulf this morning, clearly evident in the GOES-E visible
satellite imagery. To it's east, the regional radar mosaic depicts
an expanding area of convection blossoming along and just offshore
the Florida Big Bend region, with MRMS hourly rainfall locally
above 2 inches.

This increase in convection is accompanied by a steady rise in the LightningCast probabilities, suggesting that additional expansion
and intensification of thunderstorms is expected during the next
few hours. This is primarily the result of a surge in the 850mb
wind field (LLJ) east of TD #2, which is analyzed by the SPC RAP
to be above 30 kts now, supported by local VWPs at TPA and TLH of
25-30 kts. This increasing LLJ will not only begin to exceed the
mean 0-6km winds within the weakly forced environment, but also
draw impressive thermodynamics northward to increase the potential
for heavy rain rates moving over land.

So far this morning, pronounced SBCAPE has been lurking offshore
(3000-4000 J/kg), but a sharp gradient at the coast has prevented
much in the way of inland penetration of heavy rain. However, with
PWs measured on the 12Z U/A soundings around 1.9 inches, as the
LLJ surges onto the coast, it should help expand SBCAPE which will
interact with the high PWs to allow for heavy rain rates to
progress inland. This is reflected by HREF neighborhood
probabilities climbing to 40-60% for 1"/hr by this aftn, with
15-min rates exceeding 3"/hr at times suggested by the HRRR. As
mean flow becomes increasingly aligned against the Corfidi vectors
onshore training of echoes will develop, leading to 2-4" of
rainfall, with locally more than 5" possible as reflected by both
HREF and REFS probabilities (10-15% chance).

In general, this rainfall will only produce isolated flash flood
impacts where any of the most intense rain rates fall atop urban
areas. However, should any of these intense rain rates train for a
longer duration, impacts could occur anywhere in the vicinity of
the Big Bend from the eastern Emerald Coast through the Nature
Coast.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9n4JQpLCHEz_iLWBwyTZJlJmmK-2c5DXUaKBjG-iEuXmb4ufC0K_h4rPNwsyChKU6HyxWLPC1g3Ib6OKndNv3EEsBoQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30388491 30348407 30108350 29698300 29408271
28978245 28568240 28158265 28098303 28198309
28738321 29378355 29698397 29718439 29518472
29458496 29628540 30138559

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 18:28:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201828
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0795
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...Far Southwest New Mexico, Arizona, Slot Canyon
region of Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201826Z - 210000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing across the high
terrain will increase in coverage and move slowly westward across
Arizona. Hourly rainfall of 1 inch or more is possible, leading to
possible flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible satellite imagery this morning
indicates that overnight cloud cover has eroded, and Cu/TCu are
building across the higher terrain of AZ, NM, and UT. This
activity is deepening as reflected by increasing glaciation noted
via the Experimental Day-Cloud Phase RGB and steady increase in
LightningCast probabilities across the Mogollon Rim. This activity
is blossoming south of a mid-level ridge and within favorable
thermodynamics characterized by increasing SBCAPE to 2000 J/kg and
overlapped PWs measured by GPS of 1.2 to 1.7 inches, or above the
90th percentile. Despite convection being fresh, MRMS hourly
rainfall has already reached 0.5 to 0.75 inches.

During the next few hours, convection is expected to become
widespread across the area. Light 850mb inflow of 5-10 kts will
draw higher PWs from the Gulf of California northeast into AZ/UT,
overlapping a surge of SBCAPE spiking to nearly 3000 J/kg to
create favorable thermodynamics. This will result in widespread
thunderstorm development as reflected by many available high-res
CAMs including the UA WRF. These thunderstorms will develop in a
region of limited shear, so storms are expected to remain of the
pulse variety, but will contain rainfall rates which may spike
above 1"/hr (40-60% from the HREF/REFS and supported by the UA
WRF). Mean 0-6km winds are progged to remain light around the
ridge, remaining just 5-10 kts, so storms will only slowly move
off the terrain, driven mostly by outflow boundaries and storm
collisions. This suggests that some places may experience multiple
rounds of storms which could locally result in 2-3"+ of rain
(20-30% chance of at least 3" in isolated locations).

The monsoon has been active recently, leading to 7-day rainfall
departures that are as much as 600% of normal. This has further
compromised FFG to just 0.75"/1hr which has a 30-40% chance of
exceedance according to the HREF. However, the true risk is likely
slightly higher due to the natural vulnerability of this region,
so any storms that drift over slot canyons, dry washes, burn
scars, or urban areas, could all create flash flooding through
this aftn.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5jRr27hFd1-g4sA1jt6zxgKM2lotS7aUjz7tebky64sA3txyt31I5AVAG3ThE639gfI1n59tz05SkOkJB37xhf8wTXU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38371311 38291242 37901174 37191141 36461147
35571111 35131042 34480925 33260787 32410741
31900754 31490789 31220883 31280966 31311061
31441150 31621213 31851251 32221264 32601216
32971175 33511175 33881220 34401282 34701319
35391369 36311398 37441396 38091373

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 18:38:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201837
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-210030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0796
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...Much of North Carolina...Adj. Northern South Carolina...Southern Virginia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201835Z - 210030Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to Numerous efficient rainfall producing
thunderstorms will be slow moving, with back-building, repeating
and mergers locally possible. Rates of 2-2.5" are probable with
occasionally higher possible. Spots of 2-4" especially near the
front and Coastal Plain may result in localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows exiting smaller scale shortwave
in the Atlantic just east of the NC coast, as well as an
approaching wave upstream in the Midwest; yet the larger scale
trough axis remains directly over the Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas to provide general broad scale ascent and weak surface
cyclogenesis. At the surface a weak wave is denoted in
north-central NC along the wavering stationary front that crosses
the northern portion of the state. Deep layer moisture has been
pooling along/south of this boundary for the last few days and
CIRA LPW continues to denote this well with surface to 700mb
values maximized further west in W NC/SW VA, though 850-500mb
layers are just downstream through the Coastal Plain, resulting in
a broad area of 2-2.3" of Total PWat. Combine this with slightly
enhanced westerly 15-20kt winds with some weak surface to boundary
layer southeasterly and there is increasing surface moisture
convergence to overcome the remaining weak capping quickly eroding
across the area. As such, scattered cells/clusters will form with
higher concentration likely to remain near the surface wave and
downstream along the front.

Being in the base of the large scale trough between stronger shortwave/vorticity centers limits the deep layer steering flow at
15-20kts. With low level inflow being weak and opposite,
propagation vectors are reducing to less than 5 kts, but effective
bulk shear remains at 20-25kts (especially northeast) that some
organization can remain and displacement of up/downdrafts could
allow for a few updraft cycles to increase local residency to
greater than 1 hour. With total PWats of 2.25" and weak inflow
rates of 2-2.5" are likely with these cells and slow
back-building, mergers may allow for 1-2 hours supporting 2-4"
totals. This may result in scattered incident of flash flooding
especially if intersecting urban centers or more likely areas that
received similar rainfall rates/totals yesterday...though even
these totals still remain in proximity of higher FFGs in the
coastal Plain, but are more probable to be exceeded further west
in the eastern upslope and Piedmont, though coverage may be a bit
less overall. So all in all, flash flooding is considered
possible, localized and scattered in coverage.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9WYmeBvukg9RSFZVYUAAX3JWP_bmWNzu2sl-5eAlqR4-1-jn4_KE3EQ2ImEUXU8214YIpuHLUspMojBgr4GppoICZ_c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37417989 37397845 37217698 36757589 36037555
35217544 34577642 34487723 34327820 34457927
34748101 35388254 36178174 37088089

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 18:56:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201856
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-210054-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0797
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201854Z - 210054Z

Summary...Convection blossoming in the vicinity of a mid-level
impulse will move slowly through the aftn. Hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches is likely in any slow moving storm, leading to instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic late this morning shows
increasing thunderstorm development across much of southern New
Mexico and into West Texas. This convection is blossoming
downstream of a potent shortwave noted in WV imagery and analyzed
by the SPC RAP analysis. This shortwave is helping to accelerate
low-level flow which is transporting moisture northeast from
Mexico, reflected by PWs measured via GPS around 1.6 inches, well
above the 90th percentile for the date. This is overlapped with
SBCAPE recently analyzed by the RAP reaching 2500 J/kg, supplying
robust thermodynamics to support the developing convection. Storms
have generally been slow moving so far, tied to terrain features
and along a modest 850mb convergence axis downstream of the
accompanying shortwave, leading to MRMS rainfall as high as 1.5
inches in the past hour.

Storms will continue to expand and drift generally slowly to the
west through the aftn. Mean 0-6km winds of 10-15 kts will be the
primary mechanism for storm motions, and storms, especially during
the next few hours during initiation, will be slow to move away
from boundaries or terrain. However, as shear increases (to a
still modest) 15-25 kts, cells may organize into clusters, with
additional development occurring along outflows and mergers
leading to chaotic storm motions. The HREF 1-hr rainfall
probabilities reach 20-30% for 1 inch, but locally higher rainfall
rates are likely where organization can briefly enhance updraft
strength. With storm motions expected to remain generally weak and
choatic, this could produce 2-3" of rainfall with locally higher
amounts.

Soil moisture across this area is generally above normal as
reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles that are
generally in the 70th-90th percentile, making this naturally
vulnerable region a bit more sensitive than typical. Although the
greatest risk will be atop sensitve terrain features or burn
scars, as convection becomes widespread, any heavy rain falling
across this area could quickly produce runoff leading to instances
of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4sB9KBY_Ep37RfRXUu_6ujlAUzy8PJrl9OUvWDeH_tNkJ1Q1NSW0k_9TBAwmXk43jMa5RHPj5A7lXANPULFl1bGskO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35180732 35100619 33740446 31990307 30250264
29490323 29350375 29620431 30100490 30700562
31600722 32440838 33590887 34700836

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 22:41:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 202241
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0798
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
639 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...Western to Northeastern Nevada...Central Sierra
Nevada Range of California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202240Z - 210400Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage with strengthening
updrafts and moisture flux into the Great Basin from the south.
Rates of .75-1"/hrs will be possible with widely scattered
thunderstorms. Localized totals of 1.5-1.75" are possible and
given hard/rocky ground conditions may result in localized
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite depicts a shortwave and inverted
mid-level trough rounding the far WSW periphery of the well
entrenched synoptic ridge over UT/WY/CO; concurrent with mid to
upper-level energy from former TC Elida lifting north across the
eastern Pacific off the NW CA coast. This has tightened the
overall gradient for increasing flow to a jet streak into the
Pacific northwest; providing solid divergence aloft across much of
the northern Sierra into the NW Great Basin of NV. Combine this
with dPVA lifting northeast and a 700mb SW to NE trough has
strengthened from the central Sierra Nevada through northeast NV.

CIRA LPW also denotes enhanced mid-level moisture ascending out of
the Colorado River Basin ascending and melding with a 700-500mb
moisture axis from Death Valley through the Central Sierra Nevada
Range into western and west-central Nevada, reaching near 1-1.25"
of total PWats. Additionally, subtle mid-level lapse rate
decreases and filtered insolation is helping to build
conditionally unstable air with MLCAPEs of 750-1500 J/kg analyzed
from KBAN toward KEKO in NE NV. Southerly and southeasterly
convergence from the ascent is leading to widely scattered
convective initiation across portions of northeast Nevada and the
Sierra Nevada Range in E California. Moisture flux will continue
to be weak except with any isallobaric influences so 1-1.25"
moisture will likely result in .75-1" peak rates. Slow motions
and upstream redevelopment along that 700mb pressure trof may
allow for some random repeats and a spot or two of 1.5-1.75" is
not completely out of the realm of possibility through the early
overnight period.

Hydrologically, the FFG values are naturally extremely low due to
barren rock in some locales, but also complex terrain along the
ranges of central NV. Expected rates are well within the range of
hourly FFG which is .5-.75 in W NV and about 1", but this only
increases to 1 to 1.5"/3hrs, so any spotty repeats have a well
above normal potential for localized possible incidents of flash
flooding across the MPD area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9DOAXkMptLajdgnvKBkpS5KIrg7IhX0laVVmLw1YqQt1YNaFbsH_kb_AyfdbcZ02ABGvMHyJNVztKdXrpcR9tGNpfQU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...REV...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41871593 41721499 41181454 40511428 39681425
38661441 38351613 37861707 37381759 37081882
37921936 38861969 39641914 40151766 41531701

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 23:17:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 202317
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-210500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0799
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
716 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...Much of Arizona...Southwest New Mexico...El Paso,
Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 202320Z - 210500Z

SUMMARY...Numerous clusters of thunderstorms with ample deep layer
moisture to support rates of 1.5"-1.75"/hr. Slow forward motions
and potential for upstream random repeating may support localized
spots of 1.5-2.5". As such, scattered incidents of localized
flash flooding remain likely through the early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of stubborn closed low
remains over the western Panhandle of Texas; however, broadening
warming seen to the northeast and north in 6.9WV and increasing
AMVs shows increasing 35-50kt 3H jet that is helping to roll the
vorticity center westward in the last few hours as the larger
scale ridge builds southeast into the southern Central Plains.
This strengthening jet is oriented favorably for left exit
divergence across much of the Mogollon Rim into the Black
Mountains of Southwest NM. As such, mid-level winds have
responded to tighten 700mb trough axis through the Rim as well
with northeasterly flow at 500mb providing solid deeper layer
convergence.

In the lower levels, there remains a broad conditionally unstable
air mass with a broad 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE from far NW Arizona
into Southwest NM. As such, recent GOES-E 10.3um and Visible
imagery shows a broader overturning and rapid cooling especially
east of Gila county from 35N to the Mexican border. While deep
layer moisture is slightly reduced from prior days across SE AZ
into SW NM, surface Tds in the low 60s and pockets of 7-9 degrees
C Tds at 700mb are injected by stronger 15-25kts flow at cloud
base. As such, rain rates are slightly increased to 1.5-1.75"/hr.
Animated imagery shows leading edge of convection along the
Mogollon Rim to Yavapai to E Gila to Cochise, though a secondary
band across the San Francisco Plateau to S Navajo to Catron and
Dona Ana counties in NM, remain suggestive of potential for random intersection/repeating of heavier cores that may result in
localized 2-2.5" totals through the early overnight period. This
is likely to induce localized but scattered incidents of flash
flooding, mainly along the upper-stretches of the higher terrain
(Mogollon Rim and NM Mtns).

At this time, strong convergence and upslope flow out of the
central Valley and Sonoran Desert may slow southwestward
propagation, but with time some better organized clusters could
translate further southwest (central AZ) and west (S AZ) into low
elevations, sub-cloud inflow while moist, may not be sufficiently
unstable to maintain the convection, though isolated cells could
reach more populated locations after dark, so an isolated incident
of flash flooding downslope may still be possible into the
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-pGniL0Pn94BfWa8eXm4Kjnt9bVxNhLUED_Q83qtPQpIp1D9fRodGsYfX65bKxu4dmqMuVe3xfQTAR0WS0S3RSQBrxY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36591228 36021057 34720856 33980680 32650603
32070607 31770634 31620671 31670733 31650797
31240815 31191015 31521144 32441194 32971200
33631232 34331294 34841360 35181404 35731433
36381400 36581336

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 04:41:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210441
FFGMPD
MIZ000-210740-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0800
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of lower Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210440Z - 210740Z

Summary...Backbuilding/training convection poses a flash flood
risk across portions of Lower Michigan tonight.

Discussion...A fairly focused axis of strong convection was
located near Traverse City and adjacent areas of northern Lake
Michigan over the past hour. The storms were being forced
partially by ascent associated with stout mid-level troughing over
Lake Superior and adjacent southern Canada along with a
moist/unstable axis extending from northern Illinois into western
Lower Michigan (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5+ inch PW values). The
orientation of storms relative to westerly low-level flow and the
primary moist/unstable axis upstream suggests potential for
backbuilding to continue for at least a couple more hours across
northwestern Lower Michigan with a gradual southward shift in
heavy rainfall over the next couple hours. The backbuilding and
available moisture has contributed to around 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates at times, and 1+ inch/hr rain rates should continue to be
associated with the band during its existence. These rain rates
will fall on areas of 1-2 inch/hr FFG, suggestive of an isolated
flash flood threat.

Longevity of this band of backbuilding convection is in question,
although it appears likely that storms will persist slightly
longer than CAMs are suggesting. Flash flood potential will exist
through at least 0630/07Z while gradually becoming more
conditional thereafter.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_FZ0Rcd_MLnTH3BmJTcwnSnqX4IEIE4mIlD7TG4cDKh5s_TedG7DDn-oWQn9T9l1stLRwszui0l0DntdDVGMKtDKTUg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...GRR...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44968630 44948482 44498411 43578407 43178602
44068686

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 11:52:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221151
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-221700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0819
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
709 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221108Z - 221700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will persist this morning
across central/eastern Virginia with 1-2"/hr rain rates. Repeating
and training of these cells could lead to additional flash
flooding, especially atop recently saturated soils.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a narrow
line of convection oriented generally west to east across Virginia
from near Blacksburg through Richmond and over to Chincoteague.
This convection is persisting along a narrow 925mb confluence axis
noted via the RAP analysis, which may additionally be enhanced by
both residual outflow from Tusday's convection and a differential
heating boundary on the southern edge of an area of heavy rain
from overnight. Hourly rainfall within this morning activity has
been measured via MRMS to be generally 0.75 to 1.00 inches, with
locally higher embedded amounts.

The environment across Virginia remains favorable for heavy rain
this morning. PWs as measured via recent GPS observations are as
high as 2.1 inches in southeast VA, above the 90th percentile for
the date, as moisture pools south of a slowly advancing cold front
positioned back across the OH/TN Valleys. Additionally, a corridor
of MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg exists along and south of this
confluence boundary to support lift as it gets drawn northward
into the convection. Although mean 0-6km winds are quick at around
40 kts, Corfidi vectors aligned to the mean flow and this
confluence boundary suggest a prolonged period of
training/repeating cells, which could produce an additional 2-3"
of rainfall with locally higher amounts into the aftn.

Rainfall last night was impressive from central VA through the
Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and over to the Eastern Shore
where 2 to as much as 7 inches of rainfall fell. This has
pre-saturated the soils leading to 0-10cm RSM from NASA SpoRT to
be as much as 80-90%, and compromised FFG to just 1.5"/3hrs. While
the heaviest rain may occur just south of this axis (although the
activity is a bit north of most guidance at this time), any
repeating or training of these heavy rates could lead to rapid
runoff and instances of flash flooding. The most likely impacts
this morning will be across urban areas and these more sensitive
soils, but by this aftn additional development is likely which
could necessitate additional MPDs and more widespread flash flood
potential.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8RDF8JlsY1nlmFQVfjiByr3ae6Fwpl_CmKTy6O6fV7hQWhbhC_dJJt3FvTiCuxtMiL2i6979mDmIYoXwKip33_IDHLA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37957555 37777509 37207478 36837502 36507624
36367772 36577918 36917962 37357922 37717745

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 13:50:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221350
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-221800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0820
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Tennessee, western North Carolina, southwest
Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221348Z - 221800Z

Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms will continue a flash
flood risk into the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2+"/hr could
cause an additional 2-4" of rainfall atop vulnerable soils and
terrain.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a narrow
line of thunderstorms extending SW to NE across much of Tennessee
and into western Virginia. This activity is bubbling along a 925mb
convergence axis, into which moisture confluence is intensifying
on slowly veering 850mb inflow around a ridge to the east. This
inflow is additionally drawing elevated PWs (measured via GPS of
1.7 to 2.0 inches, and via the BMX 12Z U/A sounding above the 90th climatological percentile) into a narrow corridor of
already-elevated MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This has resulted in
recent MRMS hourly rainfall as much as 2 inches northeast of
Knoxville, TN.

There continues to be some uncertainty as to the convective
evolution through the aftn, but at least locally excessive rain is
likely. The CAMs are generally too far north with the current
activity, but they suggest convection will gradually sink south
through the day as a slow moving cold front drops into the area.
While the exact evolution (and thus placement of heaviest
rainfall) is still uncertain, there is high confidence that
training of echoes containing rainfall rates of at least 1-2"/hr
(locally higher according to the 15-min HRRR) will persist into
the afternoon. The HREF and REFS exceedance probabilities for 3
inches in the next 6 hours are 15-30% in far northeast TN, but
locally higher rainfall is likely, and the ECMWF EFI also has a
focus for highest probability (>0.95) and SoT above +2 across far
northeast TN, indicating strong agreement across multiple ensemble
systems.

This area is generally sensitive to heavy rain rates due to the
natural vulnerability of the terrain in the Appalachians, as well
as compromised FFG as low as 0.5-1.5"/3hrs due to recent heavy
rainfall. While the threat will be greatest where heavy rain falls
across these more vulnerable areas, any training of 2"/hr rain
rates into the afternoon could result in flash flooding instances.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4cS8lb7Guzq6pxIAGnNK8F03DhN_vyOsoad_goR1ctxdN0-TZIfCeAOO9Xhgi-Qib9RHfCrSwThduFQ8bm6TnbBODgM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37358114 37297990 37017886 36687901 36237978
35898079 35588189 35358288 35148393 35038506
35088602 35238681 35378741 35848740 36078682
37258243

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 16:58:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221658
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0821
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee, Southern Virginia, Northern
North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221656Z - 222200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to train from SW
to NE from eastern TN through eastern VA this afternoon. Rainfall
rates that at times may exceed 2"/hr could create an additional
2-4" of rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon continues to
depict a narrow corridor of convection aligned SW to NE from near
Nashville, TN through The Tidewater Region of VA. This activity is
blossoming and persisting along a 925mb convergence axis leading
to locally enhanced ascent, with additional lift provided via
modest height falls downstream of a broad mid-level trough, and a
weak vorticity impulse rotating northeast near the TN/KY border.
This deep layer lift is occurring within impressive thermodynamics
reflected by SBCAPE that has climbed to 1500-2000 J/kg and
collocated PWs between 1.8 and 2.2 inches. Notably, these PWs
continue to increase (as reflected by trends from the special 06Z
soundings) due to impressive sfc-700mb LPW advection noted in ALPW
fields, leading to CIRA experimental LPW that is above the 95th
percentile into parts of AL/GA/TN.

Several FFWs are already in effect for eastern TN into southern
VA, and it is expected that the convection driving this rainfall
will expand through the aftn, with intensification also possible.
Forcing for ascent will remain in place across the region, which
will interact with increasingly robust thermodynamics as moisture
streaming northward at least peripherally associated with T.S.
Bertha comes into the area. This is reflected by a pronounced
925mb theta-e ridge that will push into the TN VLY, aided by
subtly intensifying 850mb winds within the warm sector ahead of an
approaching cold front. As this occurs, the 850mb winds and mean
0-6km winds will become aligned to each other and the approaching
front, and roughly equal in magnitude, leading to pronounced
training of cells into the evening. With hourly rainfall progged
by both HREF and REFS to have a chance (10-20%) to exceed 2"/hr,
and HRRR 15-min rainfall reaching as high as 0.75" (brief 3"/hr
rates), this could result in stripes of 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts.

The CAMs continue to struggle with the latitudinal advance
southward of convection this aftn, and it appears probable that
this convergence band will move more slowly southward than the
guidance indicates. This will prolong the training potential over
vulnerable terrain, as well as primed soils from morning heavy
rain, leading to the increased flash flood risk during the next
several hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VtwNV3MzWtBSO_Nv3DofJQzErsIlvKSorbS2hh9JhQwvo-0A0e_eCNFhqzWwPLGkzGdxiu8jJmqAtpp24vCOaquEko$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...OHX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37887632 37817574 37477549 37017544 36337585
36117720 35737998 35428328 35478449 35648483
36038491 36588434 37108265 37567998 37687862

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 17:45:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221745
FFGMPD
COZ000-UTZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0822
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
144 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Utah and Western Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221743Z - 222300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across
Utah and western Colorado this afternoon. Hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches is possible, which through slow storm motions may cause
more than 3 inches of rain in isolated locations. Flash flooding
is likely, especially within sensitive terrain or across burn
scars.

Discussion...An extremely anomalous airmass is in place across the
Four Corners this morning, reflected by CIRA LPWs that are above
the 95th, and even 99th, percentiles between 700-300 mb. This is
additionally measured via GPS PWs that are above 1.25 inches as
far north as Montana, suggesting a massive plume of near-record
PWs across the Intermountain West. Although this moisture has
resulted in expansive cloud cover so far this morning, some breaks
have begun to develop, leading to rapid destabilization reflected
by SBCAPE that has exceeded 500-1000 J/kg from southeast UT
through much of western CO. Within this environment, Cu and TCu
have begun to develop across the higher terrain of NM/UT/AZ
suggesting the heavy rainfall threat is beginning to develop.

As the airmass becomes increasingly favorable for convection
during the next few hours, ascent will also maximize in response
to a potent shortwave/MCV clearly evident on the GOES-E WV imagery
lifting into southern UT. This feature will continue to drift
slowly N/NE around the periphery of the mid-level ridge to the
east, leading to downstream divergence and locally enhanced height
falls to produce deep layer lift. Additionally, differential
heating boundaries due to terrain and morning cloud cover will
serve as foci for convective development, and it is likely that
thunderstorm coverage will become widespread in the next few
hours. This is reflected by the high-res CAMs simulated
reflectivity, as well as the UA WRF, and the HREF, REFS, and
15-min HRRR all indicate 1-2"/hr rain rates will be common this
aftn.

A lack of bulk shear will generally keep storms disorganized and
pulse, although small clusters could develop where outflows/storm
mergers occur or along any focused convergent boundaries. While
this should be the exception rather than the rule, slow 0-6km mean
winds of just 5-10 kts aligned with the propagation vectors
indicate a repeating thunderstorm setup capable of producing more
than 3" of rainfall in some locations. 7-day rainfall across this
region has been plentiful, more than 400% of normal in many areas,
further compromising the FFG across an already vulnerable region.
This suggests that any heavy rain rates will quickly result in
runoff leading to instances of flash flooding, with the most
susceptible areas being within steep terrain or across burn scars.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6EuCz1hIuLOhslro2jegIFxnOOpEsQuy835BKxAmW0m86IE3iWf_i4hEX18mmlj-mUUuRt9ufXs49qjNgT7I2qU08rA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40971022 40960878 40600678 39520624 38500636
37630732 37510819 37720885 38030954 38041020
37831103 37441155 37031232 37011287 37241335
37591358 38161363 38891342 39941265 40601159

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 19:25:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221925
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-230100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0823
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Central Virginia northeast through the DelMarVa
Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221922Z - 230100Z

Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms with 1-2"/hr rain
rates will move across northern VA and southern MD through the
evening. Total rainfall of 2-3" is likely, with locally higher
amounts possible, and this could result in instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this aftn shows rapidly
expanding thunderstorms aligned west to east from central VA
towards coastal DE. This activity is blossoming ahead of a cold
front analyzed by WPC to be approaching slowly from the NW, and
along a pronounced 925mb speed convergence axis (possibly
influenced by differential heating due to morning cloud cover
finally eroding) to produce local ascent. Ahead of this front,
925mb-850mb inflow is slowly intensifying towards 25-30 kts,
drawing anomalous moisture northeast as reflected by near-record
925mb dew points and PWs above the 90th climatological percentile.
Overlapping this moisture, MLCAPE has surged to 1000-1500 J/kg,
with a sharp gradient to the north likely acting as the northern
edge of thunderstorm activity through the evening.

The CAMs have been a bit slow to develop activity this aftn, with
current convection outpacing the progs at 19Z. However, the
guidance does suggest that storms will continue to increase in
coverage through the next several hours in a narrow corridor,
which is supported by the ingredients becoming even more robust
immediately ahead of the cold front. MRMS hourly rainfall within
this fresh convection has only been as high as 0.75" so far, but
all 3 ensembles (REFS, HREF, and WoFS) suggest the probability for
1"/hr rainfall increasing to 40-70% by this evening. These high
probabilities occur concurrently with increasing bulk shear to
30-40 kts and aligned propagation vectors/mean 0-6km winds,
suggesting the likelihood of storms backbuilding into the greater
instability, organizing into clusters/isolated supercells, and
then training to the east. Where storms repeat/train, rainfall of
2-3" is likely, with isolated higher amounts possible (10-20%
chance for 5").

This region has received heavy rainfall in the past 24 hrs
(stripes of MRMS 24-hr rainfall 2-4" with locally higher amounts)
which has compromised FFG to as low as 1.5-2.0"/3hrs. Low FFG also
exists within more developed/urban areas. So, despite low FFG
exceedance probabilities of just 10-20%, at least an isolated
flash flood risk appears to be developing through this evening,
especially where the most prolonged training occurs over any
recently saturated soils.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8oRBoUw5J7V1FwcBkJa8EqEdQbk1bSmN2DNYovirFnS3GMGbttIFcQOJpx9C1S2ZpGLBmK7bcOCTKFKVYZznRvti1pk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39197472 38867456 38367477 37917519 37557566
37317635 37157713 37027797 37027874 36967954
37077998 37597987 37947960 38277902 38557810
38647731 38807656 38987561 39117508

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 19:31:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221931
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0824
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern ID...Southwest
MT...Western WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221930Z - 230130Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates will support a threat for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding this afternoon.

DISCUSSION....The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with the LightningCast product shows convective initiation taking
place across areas of central and eastern ID through southwest MT
and western WY. Much of the activity is terrain-focused including
portions of the Sawtooth Range, Absaroka Range, and adjacent Wind
River Range. The convection is focusing with the aid of an
approaching shortwave impulse over southern ID which is combining
with the diurnal heating cycle and a substantial pool of monsoonal
moisture.

PWs across much of the Intermountain West are very high even for
the middle to latter part of July, with values of 1.1 to 1.3
inches. These are exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology and
will be favoring convection with very efficient processes for
elevated rainfall rates. Elevated warm cloud depth layers/high WBZ
heights are in place, and the latest OSPO ALPW data shows
substantial vertical depth of moisture with high PWs noted in the
500/300 mb layer.

SBCAPE values have risen to 1000 to 1500+ J/kg and given the
influence of terrain, there should be substantial differential
heating boundaries that set up and facilitate additional
convective initiation going through the afternoon hours. While the
convection should be heavily influenced by orographics, some
activity will be capable of moving off the terrain into some of
the lower elevations.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with some of
these storms given slow cell-motions and the level of moisture
that is in place. Some persistence of these cells near the high
terrain may support some spotty 2 to 4 inch totals. Some of the
early guidance from the experimental WoFS and also the RRFS
support these rainfall rates/totals.

Some isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible around areas of rugged and sensitive terrain, and this
will include any burn scar areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!55ap8FHMISACnxRODYZemUWfA_MQXUKvCRtsGnLNFbCSuMrRyoL6HSWHFHE_j0LVHtIFtTBLAwZ5TXn5PzC6NEGRle4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...BYZ...MSO...PIH...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46371106 46240988 45450899 43860854 42350921
42041036 42261101 43361180 43501323 43171460
43791560 44961519 45781388 46241225

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 20:02:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 222002
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0825
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Northeast AZ...Western and Northern NM...Central
and Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222000Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving areas of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will foster a threat for
some areas of flash flooding going into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Deep monsoonal moisture is well entrenched across the Intermountain West and the broader Four Corners region as moisture
lifts north around the western periphery of the deep layer
subtropical ridge over the southern Plains. GOES-W visible
satellite imagery suggests some hints of a weak mid-level vort
center over northwest NM which is lifting northward toward
southwest CO.

This energy coupled with the strong diurnal heating cycle along
with increasingly focused differential heating boundaries and
moist upslope flow over the terrain should drive an increase in
the coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Already the latest radar
imagery shows scattered areas of convection impacting areas of
northeast AZ through northwest NM and across much of the central
CO high country.

SBCAPE values have already increased to 1000 to 2000+ J/kg, and
PWs across the region are locally as high as 2 to 2.5 standard
deviations above normal. Areas of northeast AZ and western NM are
seeing the greater concentrations of this monsoonal moisture which
is also noted in OSPO ALPW data.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the convection, and some of the hires CAMs suggest a threat over
the next several hours for some cell-training which may foster
some of these rainfall totals edging up into the 2 to 4 inch range
going through early this evening. This will promote concerns for
flash flooding. Any of the local burn scar locations, slot canyons
and dry wash locations will as always be most vulnerable to the
these heavier rainfall rates and potential for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!93sGSkKtwCA_BG8d9z0fqYSR3xe9rKczzFkF_36YgQrJ0UxtoV8i8l3VR02uR3lOSOBztdpZakCah_7WW_g1WTEKjWA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40840518 39210438 38030425 37070440 35850481
34510581 34110729 34050853 34290973 35061006
36010971 36830847 37590724 38130664 38790621
39970629 40640611

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 22:57:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 222257
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-230455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0826
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TN...Western and Central
NC...South-Central to Southeast VA...Far Southern and Eastern MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222255Z - 230455Z

SUMMARY...Additional clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
are expected this evening and the early part of the overnight
period. High rainfall rates and locally sensitive antecedent
conditions will favor a threat for additional areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of
eastern TN, western and central NC, and up into south-central to
southeast VA. A separate band of convection is noted farther north
over portions of the lower Delmarva that recently exited southern
MD. The convection is aligned in a couple of semi-linear bands
near and south of a cold front that is settling gradually down
through the Mid-Atlantic region.

Convergent low-level flow south of the front coupled with deep
tropical moisture and a moderately unstable airmass will continue
to support areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms going though
the evening hours. MLCAPE values as high as 1000 to 1500 J/kg and
PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches are in place, and this will help support
rainfall rates easily into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range.

Relatively divergent flow aloft around the base of the Great
Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will tend to favor convection
lingering into the early part of the overnight period, and the
low-level flow should remain conducive for multiple bands of
convection to impact especially western and central NC through
southeast VA going through midnight.

The latest hires CAMs including recent experimental WoFS runs
suggest additional rainfall totals locally of 2 to 4 inches, with
perhaps an isolated instance of heavier amounts as suggested by
the 90th percentile output of the 22Z WoFS run.

Generally, the additional rains over the next several hours will
maintain a threat for some areas of flash flooding which will
include not only the more sensitive urban areas, but also some
locations that have moist antecedent conditions.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!87cxLQVJWqILx2McowVSeXbHK6Qg1cEOqXGQtJ1CCsEAaHoW6co9TR16YJKXNrhb-8d1LY3vlsMPphrWDOgVojGfNUY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MHX...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38537646 38347495 37397490 36457561 35887703
35447933 35228135 35108339 35228449 35788476
36228440 36738316 37068165 37237999 37687881
38237751

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 23:22:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 222322
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-230520-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0827
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Intermountain West

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222320Z - 230520Z

SUMMARY...Broken areas of slow-moving monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will continue well into the
evening hours across the Intermountain West, including large areas
of Utah, western Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additional areas
of flash flooding are expected, and locally significant impacts
cannot be ruled out for some of the more sensitive slot canyon and
sloped terrain areas.

DISCUSSION...Deep monsoonal moisture is well entrenched across the Intermountain West as moisture continues to lift north around the
western periphery of the deep layer subtropical ridge over the
southern Plains. GOES-W visible satellite imagery along with radar
shows broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms with
generally slow cell-motions.

Multiple MCVs are embedded within the deeper layer flow across the Intermountain West, and this energy coupled with MLCAPE values of
1000 to 1500 J/kg and PWs exceeding the 95th percentile of
climatology will continue to favor convection this evening with
high rainfall rates that will easily reach 1.5 to 2+ inches/hour.
Deep moisture as seen in OSPO ALPW data will be key to
facilitating these high rates, and there will be the added
contribution of upslope flow over the higher terrain.

The slow cell-motions and orographic focus for some of these heavy
showers and thunderstorms may drive some additional rainfall
totals through this evening of 2 to 3+ inches. These additional
rains are supported generally by the overall consensus of hires
CAMs, including the latest experimental WoFS.

These additional rains on top of earlier rains will locally
promote some enhanced runoff concerns and channeling of water away
from areas of steep terrain and especially through some of the
slot canyon locations. Additional flash flooding is expected
through this evening, and locally significant impacts will be
possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Itau4sPoW7t3NJ4EAN_Xa1tLaPJi3iwTUPh5l5CZqhwvtGxGFYeDPVn7mvdh2IRGY8UXvRzU5Fu5UBjHyf9JwoGRQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PUB...RIW...SLC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42930877 42870708 42000590 40820566 39400636
37680824 36841054 36691231 37121362 37861411
38521417 39131382 40311210 41001115 42461017

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 01:49:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230149
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-230630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0828
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Northeast AZ...Northwest NM...Southwest to
Central CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230148Z - 230630Z

SUMMARY...Areas of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
continue for at least a few more hours across the Four Corners
region. Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
areas of cold-topped monsoonal convection persisting across
portions of northeast AZ, northwest NM and into southwest and
central CO. The airmass remains anomalously moist across the
region with high PWs locally on the order of 2 to 2.5 standard
deviations above normal. However, gradually the instability pool
across the region is being exhausted through the convective
overturning process and loss of daytime heating.

MLCAPE values are still locally upwards of 1000 J/kg, and this
coupled with the high PWs will still favor pockets of convection
capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. At
least for a few more hours, this thermodynamic environment coupled
with some forcing associated with a mid-level shortwave and
embedded vorts across eastern UT and western CO should maintain a
broader convective threat. Gradually the coverage and the rainfall
rates should tend to decrease though as the aforementioned
instability pool wanes.

Expect some additional localized rainfall amounts of 2+ inches to
be possible going through the remainder of the evening. These
additional rains may produce some additional areas of flash
flooding, with the normally dry washes and any burn scar locations
most at risk for seeing these impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4HaJ8_s1i0IoOm93XM-BiLzWNkrBjO0SVXt9YMa8WhlhdgU7lLGvieddjRm0eIsfiIwlCrhB6Nx88zWPam6KQ8N-tCw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39340609 39310482 38590408 37150436 36190555
35370691 34710783 34020884 33920994 34681087
36061064 37110940 37610837 38660705

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 05:34:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230534
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-231133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0829
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Lower Mid-Atlantic...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230533Z - 231133Z

Summary...The threat of flash flooding is expected to increase
tonight as training thunderstorms regenerate over the next few
hours.

Discussion...Radar mosaic across the Lower Mid-Atlantic and
Southern Appalachians depicts an axis of showers and low topped
thunderstorms ahead of a slow moving cold front pressing into the
area. Over the last 6 hours, persistent cell training has resulted
in localized 3-4" rainfall swaths and flash flooding atop areas
with sensitive antecedent soil conditions.

Over the next 2-3 hours, the latest CAMS and experimental WoFS
runs are in good agreement for showers and thunderstorms to
increase in coverage as increasing 925-850 mb moisture transport
removes lingering inhibition ahead of the front. Storms will
continue to tap into a very favorable environment for efficient
rainfall production (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, PW over 2") to support
rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr in the most robust updrafts. Storm
motions will remain on the quick side owing to 30-35 kts of
steering flow, although the favorable orientation to the slow
moving front will favor cell training through the overnight hours.
Over the next 6 hours, the CAMS and recent WoFS runs suggest 3-4"
can be expected in main area of training. This will likely result
in additional flash flooding owing to increasingly sensitive
antecedent conditions across the area. Significant flash flooding
remains possible should the heaviest rainfall overlap with urban
zones or areas impacted by rainfall yesterday.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!78enWBsgbgDSQHvQ9DFAlrAQxYDtWnDBTBZ5eG3mCGXTyjwkyPUuv1It-HkMHYPNyZSqWE1UK-FDw-qft8N0_XeXGA8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...FFC...GSP...HUN...MHX...MRX...OHX...RAH...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37287678 37097563 36337543 35917647 35567935
35278201 35068419 34938564 35558572 36088445
36388258 36837921

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 11:49:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 231149
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-231747-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0830
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
747 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TN into NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231147Z - 231747Z

Summary...A slowly southward advancing cold front will support an
isolated to scattered flash flood risk this morning across eastern
TN into NC. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr with localized 2-3" totals
are expected through the morning hours.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery shows showers and
thunderstorms persisting along a cold front slowly dropping
southward from eastern Tennessee into North Carolina. The
environment is characterized by deep moisture, with precipitable
water values generally hovering between 2.0 and 2.3 inches. Deep
layer flow is aligned nearly parallel to the orientation of the
boundary, creating a favorable setup for cell training and
repeating rounds of heavy rainfall.

However, convective intensity is currently being impacted by a
thermodynamic contrast across the front and modest low to mid
level moisture convergence. While robust MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg
remains in place ahead of the boundary, instability drops to
500?1000 J/kg directly along and behind the front, where the
majority of current convective activity is anchored. This reduced
instability along the boundary is generally preventing updrafts
from becoming overly deep or intense. High resolution ensemble
guidance aligns well with these observed trends; both the HREF and
REFS depict neighborhood probabilities of 1"/hr rainfall rates
over 50%, while probabilities for rates exceeding 2"/hr generally
remain under 10%.

Antecedent conditions vary across the region. The northern edge of
the rain shield is currently traversing areas with more saturated
soils; however, the rain is gradually shifting southward into
drier areas featuring higher FFG thresholds. Hourly rainfall rates
of 1 to 2" are expected in spots, leading to 6 hour localized
accumulations peaking in the 2 to 3" range. Nevertheless, a few
stronger cells could briefly train over the same area and locally
produce totals exceeding 2" in an hour. One such training axis is
currently occurring across upslope areas of far southeast TN.
Additional flash flooding through the morning hours should
generally remain isolated in nature, but will remain possible
where rain overlaps more saturated areas and where cell training
pushes hourly rainfall over 2".

By this afternoon, the cold front will continue pushing across
southern and eastern North Carolina into northern South Carolina.
As convection moves further south and taps into the diurnally
destabilizing airmass ahead of the front, storm intensity and
rainfall rates are expected to increase.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7GWXEoGWHIL5y-ndxJm8OoxjQi1-xgvYqxoZzIE60BZCOBeSor61CMgL3sqD57ndeHT-Rw8gf7K_XFsRaw3mZrHKkds$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...FFC...GSP...HUN...ILM...MHX...MRX...
RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 36457707 36287559 35267542 34757689 34727998
35028211 34738493 34858533 34958559 35108566
35588491 36008280 36167988

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 17:26:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 231725
FFGMPD
TXZ000-232324-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0831
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Central TX Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231724Z - 232324Z

Summary...Convection associated with a mid-level circulation and
convergence well south-southwest of Tropical Storm Bertha will
move ashore along the central Texas coast. While fast storm
motions and high Flash Flood Guidance will limit widespread
flooding, localized hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches could lead to
isolated rate driven flash flood impacts along coastal areas.

Discussion...Regional radar and satellite imagery show a compact
convective cluster associated with a mid-level circulation well
south-southwest of Tropical Storm Bertha tracking toward the
central Texas coast. MRMS rainfall estimates offshore have
indicated intense rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour within
this feature. Recent observational trends suggest this convection
is undergoing some weakening trend as it approaches the coastline.

Despite this weakening, the thermodynamic environment moving
ashore is extremely moist, featuring precipitable water values
near 2.9 inches. Even in a somewhat diminished state, this deep
tropical moisture profile and ambient instability should be
sufficient to support isolated intense hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches as convective cores push inland, with total rainfall
locally exceeding 3 inches.

Fortunately, a couple of factors will act to limit the overall
severity and spatial extent of the flood threat. First, individual
cell motions are expected to remain relatively quick, preventing
prolonged residence times over any single location. Second, FFG
thresholds across the central Texas coast are quite high,
generally around 3 to 4 inches in an hour.

Consequently, the expected peak rainfall rates should primarily
approach or only locally exceed FFG thresholds. While widespread
flash flooding is not anticipated, high rate driven, localized
flash flood impacts, particularly in low-lying, coastal, or
poor-drainage areas, will be possible as this activity pushes
onshore.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8YErWsLYFZn6GOPF5rWY-yosafSHmTROPyz6r6eBesOTlEOgb1s65fXn7UJawXHfk2ujBJRztHfTA00fQgjtX2Z0cpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29099621 28909565 28569567 28169626 27839685
27869728 27959755 28269759 28639716 28979662

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 18:39:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 231838
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-240030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0832
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern UT...Western and Central
CO...Western and Northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231837Z - 240030Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be
expected once again today across the central Rockies and adjacent
areas of the Intermountain West. Isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating along with anomalous monsoonal
moisture across the central Rockies and adjacent areas of the
Intermountain West will once again promote at least scattered
areas of showers and thunderstorms today that will be capable of
locally high rainfall rates. Already there are pockets of
convective initiation occurring across central and western CO on
down through northern and western NM. GOES-W based LightningCast
data shows areas of central and eastern UT will also be seeing
convective initiation soon.

A modest shortwave trough/mid-level weakness is noted in satellite
imagery across western CO, with some north/south extension of this
energy. This will combine with the diurnal heating cycle to
promote an expansion of these scattered areas of monsoonal
convection over the next several hours. Differential heating
boundaries and orographic ascent over areas of higher terrain will
also facilitate upscale convective evolution.

SBCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are already in place, with PWs
running as much as 2 to 3+ standard deviations above normal. This
combined with orographics should again help drive some rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ inches/hour. Some spotty 2 to 3+ inch totals
cannot be ruled out, and there is support for this from some of
the hires models CAMs including the NAM Conest and the RRFS.

Overall, the convective footprint should not be as widespread
today as compared to yesterday since the level of forcing is not
quite as strong, but there will be at least scattered coverage of
convection that should drive concerns for isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding. Any burn scar locations along with the
more sensitive slot canyons and normally dry washes will be at
greatest risk for seeing flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!51gztriOC-WpU7FoqHOQNeaZCH12brV_oFLyBdsQwTMaTLsk1jLAv4Js9upsPGG6l3hQk_JDPNbGOMw-nFoc0VKK4Pc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...
TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41110688 41090548 40360499 38900490 37500473
36050482 34060615 33390711 33320822 33560902
34230932 35000921 36030932 36830995 37171101
37091275 37761295 38791186 39691147 40501081
40970953 40820861 40900780

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 22:46:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 232245
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-240430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0833
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
644 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Northern GA...Central and Upstate SC...Southern
NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232244Z - 240430Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms this
evening with heavy rainfall rates will pose concerns for areas of
flash flooding, including potential for some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
some expanding and cooling convective tops along a slow-moving
cold front that is draped generally west to east from northern GA
eastward across northern SC and into southeast NC. Surface
observations more recently suggest a couple of weak waves of low
pressure riding along the front with one in northern GA and one in
northeast SC.

MLCAPE values across the region in proximity of the front are on
the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with PWs that are quite high and
indicative of a deep tropical airmass with values of 2.0 to 2.25
inches. Some areas of southeast NC in fact have PWs that are
locally closer to 2.5 inches.

This deeply unstable and moist environment has been favoring
convection more recently with the cooling convective tops that is
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour. Much of the activity is
being aided by moderate moisture convergence along the front
itself along with some modest shear that is helping to sustain
some of the broken clusters of convection that have formed. Some
localized areas of upslope flow into parts of the southern
Appalachians is also noted as a player with the convection and
especially over southwest NC.

Some of the recent CAMs suggest some uptick in convective coverage
this evening with some localized rainfall totals by midnight of 3
to 4+ inches which will be aided by some potential for occasional
instances of cell-training. There is some spread in the guidance
with where the heavier rainfall totals should tend to focus, but
generally areas of northwest/upstate SC eastward across the
southern tier of NC should be the main focus since this is where
the better combination of moisture convergence and instability
will be noted.

Expect there to be some potential for additional areas of flash
flooding this evening as a result of these clusters of heavy
showers and thunderstorms. This will include potential urban flash
flooding impacts. Bigger cities such as Charlotte, NC and perhaps
even as far west as Atlanta, GA may see these urban flooding
concerns over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8eIGLw_TixeHjRYgdixIhQ9i9a76iHXDbhk88NK4Pja9k1SrqudZ-3ksN7_aLjT3zkdNsqOC1cN-95xnMrNs9V4WF7E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...MRX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35778117 35527968 35507793 35267673 34827628
34137663 33807752 33737857 33757970 33748124
33498320 33388477 33818548 34428537 34748476
35068364 35668260

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 23:22:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 232321
FFGMPD
TXZ000-240330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0834
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232320Z - 240330Z

SUMMARY...Mainly urban flash flooding will continue to be a
concern near and to the southwest of the Houston metropolitan area
this evening.

DISCUSSION...T.S. Bertha continues to advance inland across
southeast TX early this evening, and while the low-level center
has largely been devoid of any deep convection, the recent GOES-E
IR satellite imagery has shown a strong burst of deep convection
around the southwest flank of the circulation. This has allowed
for very heavy rainfall to impact portions of the Houston
metropolitan area over the last hour, and the latest radar and
satellite trends show the axis of deeper and colder cloud tops
shifting southwestward with time.

Strong moisture convergence around the southwest flank of the
system coupled with moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE values
of 1500 to 2500 J/kg) and high PWs of 2.5+ inches will support
extreme rainfall rates within this focused convective cluster
along with some sustainability of the convection at least for the
next few hours.

Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour are expected, and some
isolated spotty totals of 4 to 5 inches where any cell repetition
occurs will be possible. Expect additional areas of mainly urban
flash flooding to be possible this evening as the activity
advances off to the southwest. FFG values are very high across the
region, but with such high short-term rates, the urban flash flood
threat will continue to be notable.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TqIPFm35ngUin3LNVsDbY0L5XVjORStvkDAlNhDGoDMjQm1KwrrT6NQFwq0ODzjgVfa7T6g0_YNr1v7G4G8t78beFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30359582 30149513 29859479 29399482 29089516
28589637 28499715 28639782 29079811 29569793
29889762 30249684

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 23:53:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 232353
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-240530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0835
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Far Western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232351Z - 240530Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
this evening will support a threat for isolated to scattered areas
of flash flooding near the Front Range and out across the High
Plains.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows several
cold-topped convective clusters growing generally upscale across
eastern CO with activity near the Front Range and extending east
across the adjacent High Plains.

Modest, low-amplitude shortwave energy ejecting east across
central and eastern CO is interacting with a quasi-stationary
front and a pool of moderate to strong instability to support this
convection. MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg are noted locally,
and pockets of relatively strong moisture convergence are noted in
close proximity to the front.

Southeast low-level flow may tend to increase in strength with
some nocturnal enhancement later this evening across eastern CO
and especially areas of western KS. This will further strengthen
the moisture transport and provide at least an elevated pool of
instability as well. The end-result may tend to be an expansion of
convection with at least some broken MCS activity impacting
eastern CO and western KS through this evening.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected and some spotty
areas of 2 to 4 inch totals will be possible. This may be enough
rain to support an isolated to scattered threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-SwOI5cCgP1QhHYaHCU6y6MFIg4Sr3Yq02diRTFtTMnW6VQniSaKb9dwawjlRoz2gS1mku7_0etteyE0JmSS4QI_T7I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41270488 41180405 40830312 40180203 39270097
37990072 37400187 37530391 38590527 39970591
40780587 41150540

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 00:18:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 240018
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-240500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0836
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Much of Central and Northern
AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240016Z - 240500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms
will continue through this evening. Locally high rainfall rates
will continue to support a threat for mainly isolated areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
monsoonal showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact areas of
western NM up through the Mogollon Rim area of central and
northern AZ, and locally up across southern UT. Some of the
convection has been trending a bit more focused across northwest
AZ to the east of Kingman as some better defined outflow boundary
activity has pushed westward and away from the Mogollon Rim itself.

There are still some pockets of MLCAPE values reaching 1000 to
1500 J/kg, and this instability and proximity of multiple
colliding outflow boundaries in addition to orographics should
still facilitate a persistence of scattered convective clusters
going into the evening hours.

Rainfall rates of as much as 1 to 2 inches/hour will still be
possible over the next few hours, with a couple of spotty 2+ inch
totals not out of the question. This should support an isolated
threat of flash flooding, which may include impacts to any local
burn scar areas, slot canyons and normally dry washes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7o15OMta24aKdmbH4FcNeaqfjEoNAruNFn_1z7uT06f63W7RbLt0L_E7ZvNCvSZvoJUlxBYBSA3z53hTwt1nws54dPM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38171210 37801081 37161011 35970948 35020844
33970765 33140747 32490798 32350883 32611008
33661182 34101355 35071419 36591405 37821343

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 04:39:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 240439
FFGMPD
KSZ000-241036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1237 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240436Z - 241036Z

SUMMARY...The batch of thunderstorms over northern Kansas will be
the first in a growing area of thunderstorms across eastern KS
tonight. Storms will be capable of producing up to 3"/hr rainfall
rates and flash flooding may occur tonight. More urbanized
settings are most prone to potential flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar and GOES-19 IR show a cluster of strong thunderstorms over northern KS that are working their way east
along and just north of I-70 this evening. Storms are forming at
the nose of a strengthening 850mb jet that will approach 30-35 kts
over southwest KS tonight. There is also strong 850mb theta-e
advection that will overrun a surface-925mb air-mass featuring
cooler temperatures and E-SErly average-layer flow. This setup
acts as a form of isentropic ascent and will support additional
thunderstorms that are likely to form overnight and linger into
Friday AM.

These storms are forming in an environment that is growing
increasingly more saturated with PWs that are forecast to surpass
2.2" tonight, which are above the 99th climatological percentile
this time of year. There is also a narrow plume of 500-1,000 J/kg
of MUCAPE that resides within low-mid levels of the atmosphere
that are >90% RH. Lastly, there is also excellent low-level
vertical wind shear present given the strong veering winds from
the surface to 700mb (RAP mesoanalysis shows sfc-3km shear >30
kts).

FFGs are lowest along I-70 and east of I-35 where 1-hr FFGs are
less than 2"/hr. As storms move east, they will work their way
closer to east-central KS where FFGs are not as low, but a gradual
increase in urbanized communities are also present. MRMS 15-minute
radar estimated rainfall totals are topping out around 0.75",
suggesting hourly rainfall rates approaching 3"/hr are ongoing
within this first batch of storms. Given the copious amounts of
moisture, sufficient instability, and favorable shear aloft, there
is the potential for flash flooding tonight in eastern KS. Poor
drainage areas and urbanized communities are most vulnerable.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4XIXK-fYt8jSsfy6ejQu_i27KA1N_01LiCYhoApqN2QMVa9PmmgiOz9fJ26R33pd5ODPotwDLMcPoCeqU2AzPp7OY2s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39809666 39669537 38479519 38069612 38129768
38689845 39079867 39519858 39739795

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 04:46:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 240446
FFGMPD
KSZ000-241036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1245 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Corrected for MPD Time Duration Shortened

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240436Z - 241036Z

SUMMARY...The batch of thunderstorms over northern Kansas will be
the first in a growing area of thunderstorms across eastern KS
tonight. Storms will be capable of producing up to 3"/hr rainfall
rates and flash flooding may occur tonight. More urbanized
settings are most prone to potential flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar and GOES-19 IR show a cluster of strong thunderstorms over northern KS that are working their way east
along and just north of I-70 this evening. Storms are forming at
the nose of a strengthening 850mb jet that will approach 30-35 kts
over southwest KS tonight. There is also strong 850mb theta-e
advection that will overrun a surface-925mb air-mass featuring
cooler temperatures and E-SErly average-layer flow. This setup
acts as a form of isentropic ascent and will support additional
thunderstorms that are likely to form overnight and linger into
Friday AM.

These storms are forming in an environment that is growing
increasingly more saturated with PWs that are forecast to surpass
2.2" tonight, which are above the 99th climatological percentile
this time of year. There is also a narrow plume of 500-1,000 J/kg
of MUCAPE that resides within low-mid levels of the atmosphere
that are >90% RH. Lastly, there is also excellent low-level
vertical wind shear present given the strong veering winds from
the surface to 700mb (RAP mesoanalysis shows sfc-3km shear >30
kts).

FFGs are lowest along I-70 and east of I-35 where 1-hr FFGs are
less than 2"/hr. As storms move east, they will work their way
closer to east-central KS where FFGs are not as low, but a gradual
increase in urbanized communities are also present. MRMS 15-minute
radar estimated rainfall totals are topping out around 0.75",
suggesting hourly rainfall rates approaching 3"/hr are ongoing
within this first batch of storms. Given the copious amounts of
moisture, sufficient instability, and favorable shear aloft, there
is the potential for flash flooding tonight in eastern KS. Poor
drainage areas and urbanized communities are most vulnerable.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!44Tho2W8YhGY-pVcRsxc0keAR7v_-T5QYklrLmhuGkZUQdvNJauvWnsd02ZGSLb1lICC7bgedFvd4W25Ddc4Vn5YXrQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39809666 39669537 38479519 38069612 38129768
38689845 39079867 39519858 39739795

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 13:36:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241335
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-241930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0838
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
934 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Northern AL...Northern GA...Adj Souitheast TN,
Western NC, Far Upstate SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241335Z - 241930Z

SUMMARY...Scattered, slow moving thunderstorms capable of intense
focused heavy rainfall (2-2.5"/hr rates) support widely scattered
incidents of possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...13z surface analysis shows a weak surface wave along
the TN/AL/GA intersection just west of Chattanooga which as arched
the front northeastward across far SE TN before northeasterly CAD
flow along the eastern lee of the southern Appalachians have
anchored the front from GVL to LZU to CPP before angling
northeastward near the Fall-line in central SC near HQU. The
upstream portion of the front is dropping southward into northern
AL and is denoted best in the Visible imagery with some weak
northerly flow to help convergence south of the front.

Tds along and west remain well into the mid-70s with some
temperature separation from some weak early morning insolation;
though with broad weak 10-15kts of westerly low level flow, there
are some bubbling convective areas where MUCAPE has risen to over
1000, nearing 1250 J/kg. Orthogonal isentropic ascent to the
front has been the most effective in stronger and broader ascent
with a few cells being efficient enough for a localized 2"/hr
rate/total. However, moving off the front has resulted in
weakening into SC, though the persistent location of the ascent is
supportive of redevelopment and therefore increased potential of
repeating over the next few hours.

The increasing insolation through the morning coupled with weak
capping should see both an increase in coverage as well as
convective vigor, as MLCAPEs reach 1500 J/kg by late morning,
early afternoon hours. Upstream shortwave energy will provide
some dPVA and area (especially GA into the Carolinas will remain
in diffluent flow aloft to support some increased
divergence/outflow for convection. Total PWat values of 2 will
slightly increase toward 2.25" and deep layer steering flow will
remain slightly confluent (increasing to ~20kts) but mostly west
to east to allow for localized repeating/training especially as
the CAD erodes and the front lifts but remains fairly parallel to
the mean flow. Isolated spots of 2-3.5" remain possible, but most
should fall quickly and be in the range of the 1-3 hr FFG values
suggestive of widely scattered to scattered incidents of
focused/localized possible flash flooding. This would only
increase in potential if cells can intersect the prone urban
centers, especially Birmingham and Atlanta.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9pP6wLwRgmP8ixfy23YugVepcTlhmJCIzf7obVAwv5FhItVCUjjgObJaKuLLybv7fH2NEp9nSp7wuvTj3n7t57WxvvU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35448404 35308326 34808281 34008267 33498285
33398363 33438491 33208708 33818794 34358802
34658775 34858644 35398491

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 16:06:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241606
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-242015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0839
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Northern MS...Central Eastern AR...Adj. Southwest
TN, Northwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241605Z - 242015Z

SUMMARY...Narrow band of slow moving/repeating efficient heavy
rainfall storms capable of 2-2.5"/hr and focused localized 2-4"
totals and possible flash flooding

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite and RAP analysis denote an elongated
WNW to ESE shortwave/mid-level trof axis across western KY into
Middle TN helping to spur a weak surface wave over S TN, helping
to drop the stationary front southward across N MS into
south-central AR per 16z surface analysis. However, 850-700mb VWP
and Rap analysis shows some WAA across central AR and sharpening
850mb FGEN from north-central AR southeastward across N MS. As
such, a tightening of the moisture gradient and low level stratus
can be seen in Visible imagery. This small bifurcation of the
surface to just above boundary layer frontal slope is helping to
increase confluence and pooling of deep layer moisture with Total
Pwats over 2.25" and near 2.5" through this zone. MLCAPE analysis
also notes the sharpened of the gradient and with weak but
orthogonal winds providing solid convergence, the capping eastward
has sufficiently eroded for a narrow band of convection to start
to develop and expanded along the 850mb boundary from central
Eastern AR into north-central MS. Flux is weak given the 10kts of
inflow, but with ample available moisture especially loaded in the
lowest few km of the developing CBs and below the
freezing/Wet-bulb zero levels; efficient heavy tropical rain
showers can produce 2-2.5"/hr. Any localized broadening of the
updrafts may even trip a very isolated increase to 3"/hr locally.

As alluded to above, deep layer steering at or just above the
cloud base front, rapidly shifts more west to east but also has a
solid confluent component, especially across N MS into NW AL along
the southwest flank of the shortwave axis. This should support a
potential for repeating and training to the east and may help to
result in localized 3-4" totals through the early afternoon.
However, as the wave progresses and 850mb winds veer, upstream
redevelopment will reduce and progression of the convective line
will shift eastward into NE MS and perhaps NW AL toward 19z.

Hourly FFG values are high with 2.5-3"/hr and 3hr values in the
3-4" range, so even with training flash flooding risk will be more
isolated to widely scattered in nature and could potentially be
only limited to intersecting urban centers, especially Memphis if
the front can continue the slight northeast propagation seen
recently, though Oxford and Tupelo, MS still remain in some
potential risk of intersection/repeating as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8fR_1iQGwjZklr-Mv6bwhPdW5KL9PKk04IaXE1Zmjg6Ta7dNVdn-_kFauCBpNvbgjEwmAWWyi6ObzDRLEIqrO1H5tJw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35679182 35399016 35088849 34608702 34118679
33768723 33818859 34009010 34469144 35109215

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 18:34:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241833
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0840
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Four Corners Region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241832Z - 250030Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
foster concerns for at least isolated areas of flash flooding
today given locally high rainfall rates and areas of sensitive
terrain. Local burn scar areas, slot canyons, and the normally dry
washes will be most at risk for seeing runoff problems and flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
convective initiation taking places across the broader Four
Corners region including parts of the central Rockies and adjacent
areas of the Southwest. Strong diurnal heating has promoted MLCAPE
values of 500 to 1000 J/kg at least locally, but these values will
continue to rise going through the afternoon hours with the
persistence of solar insolation.

The subtropical ridge is rather well established over the region,
with monsoonal moisture trapped underneath. PWs are still rather
elevated with the OSPO ALPW data showing the best concentration of
deeper moisture situated across central and western NM up through
southern UT and southwest CO. Some values are still pushing 1.5 to
2.5 standard deviations above normal across these areas, and this
moisture coupled with orographic ascent/terrain and the build-up
of diurnally enhanced instability will favor scattered areas of
convection with rainfall rates capable of reaching 1 to 2
inches/hour.

A lack of deeper layer shear given the presence of the ridge axis
supports pulse mode convection. However, over time as additional terrain-enhanced convection evolves, there will likely be the
development and propagation of multiple outflow boundaries.
Localized collisions of these mesoscale boundaries or interactions
with differential heating/instability gradients will likely
facilitate additional regional development of convection which
could take on a multicell character.

The latest multi-model hires CAMs support as much as 2 to 3 inches
of rain where any cells become anchored near the high terrain or
locally repeating over the same area in vicinity of outflow
boundary collisions away from the terrain. These rains will
support at least isolated areas of flash flooding. Local burn scar
areas, slot canyons, and the normally dry washes will be most at
risk for seeing runoff problems and flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_hXEejXw5urJjY0-Qeqfhy5mg1B2FTp9sZpHLiWVUKYceWsXObY0wN7xYrA53wAZcBxxLdXue-KSC_5DlSguxkj_DDU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...SLC...
TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39260711 38720503 37330452 36310469 34890497
33300478 32600546 32820704 32790817 32780920
33471053 33811100 34201157 34611253 35181337
36121395 37561373 38581256 38831083 39060894

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 19:05:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241904
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0841
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Northern/Central AL...Northern/Central
GA...Western/ Southern SC...Far Southern NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241900Z - 250100Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms with potential back-building
across the Carolina's intersecting approaching west to east
moving/repeating cells out of Alabama/Georgia. Ample moisture
should continue to support intense/efficient rates of 2-2.5"/hr.
Random collisions and short-term training/repeating may allow for
localized 2-5" totals for possible localized flash flooding
conditions through this evening.

DISCUSSION...19z Surface analysis shows little change from this
morning with coastal surface low over E NC continuing to drop
southeast along the stationary front as convection builds
southward in the remaining coastal warm sector across SC. The
cold air damning stratiform across the Upstate of SC and western
NC has been stubborn to erode and sharped the stationary front
cross NE GA, intersecting a second surface low over far SE TN. A
cold front continues to advance across N AL, tightening the
overall moisture/instability gradient across central AL into
northern and central GA.

Solid insolation along/south of the front as seen temperatures
rise into the mid to upper 80s, while Tds remain in the mid to
upper 70s and while the profiles are deeply staturated; narrow,
skinny MLCAPEs are still 2000-2500 J/kg. With the slightly
stronger surface wave and southward pushing cold front restricting
the moisture plume; deep layer confluence/convergence has sizably
increased convective activity across northern and central AL
starting to expand into W GA. Availability to 2.25-2.5" total
PWats (loaded mainly below 500mb) will continue to allow for
efficient rainfall production even with limited/weak inflow/flux.
Rates of 2-2.5" are probable and with cell motions of 5-10kts,
residency may allow for localized 2-3" totals and with upstream
development, random repeating could allow for localized 3-5"
totals through the evening.

Downstream into Coastal SC, instability has been reduced due to
some cloud debris from the moisture stream/elevated convection
earlier this morning across Upstate. Still, temps are rising into
the lower 90s across SE GA and far S SC, so MLCAPE values are
starting to approach 2000-2500 J/kg as well. The sharpness of the
frontal zone, as resulted in a narrow 500-1000 thickness ridge
across GA and with weak upstream height-falls and inflow from the
west, propagation vectors are along and south of the front; and
perhaps opposite of deeper steering flow to allow for some cells
to remain relatively stationary or allow for increased residency
of lingering moderate mid-cloud/downshear rainfall to continue for
a few hours after peak 2-2.5"/hr rates. WoFS runs suggest 3-5"
totals are probable especially given corralling effects of the
coastal convergence zone near shore.

If back-building were to occur, merger/collisions of upstream
convection with any developing cluster out of S SC, could further
increase localized totals; however, there is lower confidence in
this evolution toward 00z due to evolutionary spread in the Hi-Res
CAM suite overall. Still, with 2-5" totals scattered across the
area of concern, localized flash flooding risk will continue
through the evening into early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9_8pILfgFL_VCDLg9jXJYgmZOo2RhiSo5w2b_qakM_xc2i0vEZy60KNITt02eHA9gKjB_q1iqg3xwKe3xYYBnGo-vVA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...HUN...ILM...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35408326 34228145 34207951 34407774 33847767
33517856 32647966 32198047 31768105 31938168
32068225 32318410 32478520 32838652 33698752
34128748 34398642 34778505

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 23:36:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 242335
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-250400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0842
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern NM...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242334Z - 250400Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms should
persist through this evening across areas of eastern NM and out
into the TX Panhandle. An isolated threat for flash flooding will
exist given the relatively slow cell-motions and high rainfall
rates.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
locally broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting portions of the southern Rockies and out across the
southern High Plains. Convective tops continue to expand and cool
overall, and there has been an increase in the concentration of
convection across eastern NM in particular over the last 1 to 2
hours.

Much of the convection has been driven by a combination of
moderate instability within a moist airmass along with relatively
focused convergence along a surface trough across eastern NM up
toward the TX Panhandle region. Localized upslope flow also into
the east-facing slopes of the higher terrain including parts of
the Sangre De Cristo Range has facilitated areas of strong and
slow-moving convection.

The current activity should persist through the evening hours
while gradually exhausting the available instability pool which is
still characterized by MLCAPE values locally near 1500 J/kg. The
PWs are generally between 1.25 and 1.50 inches, and the
combination of this with the instability will still help drive 1
to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates in the short-term.

Slow cell-motions and some cell-merger activity will continue to
support some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts through this
evening. This will support an isolated threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6IjPAprduLG-5l8g2aGAq8cVDofTWP_B5tklofgMZqa0WPpcygAQ5mmbVpYABQlKMlyR8wvS2GcUC7SQHrF3UwuYh80$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36500409 36230370 35770343 35520299 35980132
35410096 33800241 33150342 33010458 33680540
34680563 35540515 36230476

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 00:09:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 250009
FFGMPD
MNZ000-250530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0843
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Northern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250008Z - 250530Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with concerns for
cell-training going through the evening hours may drive a threat
for at least localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a few
impressive convective clusters advancing across northern MN which
have exhibited some localized cell-training concerns. The activity
is being driven by the arrival of a shortwave trough and belt of
strong mid-level winds/shear that is combining with approach of a
cold front and strong thermodynamics ahead of it for organized
convection.

MLCAPE value are upwards of 2500 to 3500 J/kg, with PWs of 1.5 to
1.75 inches. This along with effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts
is fostering supercell thunderstorms, and there has been some
occasional redevelopment of these cells over the last hour across
northwest MN in behind an initial round of storms that has already
crossed the region and dropped down to the southeast.

The latest HRRR and RRFS guidance is rather robust with their QPF
over the next few hours, with the consensus suggesting localized
swaths of 3 to 5 inches of rain. They may be just a tad high with
their output, but with some of the cell-training concerns noted
recently, it cannot be ruled out.

The antecedent conditions here are quite dry, but the rainfall
rates with the stronger and more organized cells may reach 1.5 to
2+ inches/hour, and any cell-training for heavier totals may
result in their being a localized threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8XjW3BDE2u1fYb-8t3D3WZhFpPoIU_Z3oXuQrF3XT5XFVCtR1IMQw3PKGVcAGEYN6HkS3inOT5XnSCChNpeDVfF9Zx0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48819537 48759458 48509336 47969238 47409240
47129307 47159404 47329504 47469564 47719642
47999690 48389692 48579675 48759622

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 00:58:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 250058
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0844
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
856 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern AZ...Central and Northern
AZ...Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250056Z - 250500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
continue for at least a few more hours across portions of eastern
AZ through central and northern NM, and also adjacent areas of
southern CO. Lingering areas of high rainfall rates may continue
to drive some additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery continues to
show pockets of cold-topped monsoonal convection across portions
of far eastern AZ and especially central and northern NM. Some
pockets of convection are also persisting locally across southern
CO as well.

Lingering instability with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg will
continue to work in tandem with areas of higher terrain and any
outflow boundaries to support some additional convection for at
least a few more hours. The overall convective footprint should
tend to decrease with the gradual loss of daytime heating and
convective overturning processes, but the radar imagery is
suggesting some subtle hints at an MCV developing over central NM.

This weak MCV will slowly edge westward through this evening and
may tend to help locally maintain a modest dynamical focus for
convection despite the gradual decrease in boundary layer
instability.

Given the depth of monsoonal moisture that is in place and the
available instability, rainfall rates in the near-term will still
be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells.
This will thus still support potential for some runoff problems
and isolated areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6JWPFzfpswLA2jgc7aX5bl9CM4axoCPLFFy1y2hy6c8RnRLYwZ8K7kPmGsBQvEHDq3dRF2alTAawhD5iSZHcBrajRHI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38820486 38360432 37550461 35990549 34310566
33040593 32540694 32790867 33480960 34340985
35270973 35990941 36520909 37460818 38280705
38780595

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 11:45:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 251138
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-251536-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0845
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
737 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251136Z - 251536Z

SUMMARY...Persistent convection focused along a narrow axis of
low-level convergence will pose a localized flash flood threat
near the MO/IL border. Continued backbuilding and cell training
could support localized hourly rainfall of 2-3".

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and IR satellite imagery indicate a
small-scale but resilient area of strong convection ongoing near
the Missouri/Illinois border. This activity is anchored along a
maximum in 925-850 mb low level convergence, which is interacting
with a relatively narrow corridor of instability. Mesoanalysis
indicates moderate instability with CAPE values hovering around
1000 J/kg, co-located with an anomalously moist airmass featuring
PW values in excess of 2.0 inches.

While the overall footprint of favorable ingredients remains
narrow, upstream convective development into the low level flow is
actively supporting localized cell training. Satellite trends show
a persistent and robust updraft that has outlasted recent HRRR
runs which attempted to weaken and move the activity eastward too
quickly. While IR imagery does not suggest the system is growing
upscale into a broader convective complex, the central area of
strong updrafts is persisting.

Over the next few hours, this convection will likely remain
small-scale, but it should gradually expand slightly eastward as
the 925?850 mb moisture transport axis shifts in that direction.
Concurrently, backbuilding on the western flank will remain a
concern. Given the 2"+ PWAT airmass, efficient rainfall production
will support localized hourly rainfall as high as 2-3" within the
strongest cores, resulting in an isolated flash flood risk for
low-lying and sensitive drainage areas.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-vKl7PhouaK2iBn7njDgJ5B53KqsRTR7L6w3B_yo4G_18Uv6zA3wWo9MDhkBUMBcnICqSk5Py5FbB2Wh-GejBqTmXT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 39569005 39238946 38698900 38238892 38048932
38098982 38659027 38829035 39139060 39389058

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 14:48:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 251447
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-251946-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0846
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1046 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Far northeast SC, southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251446Z - 251946Z

SUMMARY...An expanding convective complex along a frontal boundary
will pose an isolated flash flood risk over the next few hours
from far northeast SC into southern NC. While fast individual cell
motions will limit widespread flooding, brief cell training within
a very moist environment could yield hourly rainfall of 2-3"/hr
and isolated flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and IR satellite imagery show an
expanding area of convection with cooling cloud tops advancing
across far northeast SC into southern NC. This activity is
developing within a thermodynamic environment conducive to heavy
rainfall along an advancing frontal zone. Recent mesoanalysis
indicates precipitable water values around 2.4 inches, values near
the climatological max for late July. Combined with moderate
instability characterized by MUCAPE values between 1000 and 2000
J/kg, the environment will support highly efficient precipitation
production.

Individual cell motions are relatively quick. This fast movement
will act as a primary mitigating factor, preventing widespread or
significant flooding across the region. However, as the convective
complex expands and consolidates along the frontal boundary, the
structure is becoming sufficiently organized to support localized
cell training and repeating of heavy convective cores over the
same areas.

Within the strongest convective cores, intense rainfall locally
reaching 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected. Rates of this
magnitude may begin to locally exceed Flash Flood Guidance
thresholds. While widespread flooding is not anticipated due to
storm motion, the combination of favorable precipitation
efficiency and brief cell training will be sufficient to produce
localized flash flood impacts over the next few hours,
particularly over sensitive drainage basins and low-lying areas

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5eecXWtt4k0wOvJ2HBz8Fs9BiKE3pHfa4Gi5lV--YkrtKvF9P1BvEIVfv_mmczkJ67E9O75fbBTWAMzwAxruzfPnM2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34877722 34357673 33777784 33537874 33547913
34287968 34807841

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 16:11:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 251611
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-252209-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0847
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Southern TN, Northern MS and AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251609Z - 252209Z

SUMMARY...A persistent convective cluster tied to a compact MCV
over southern Tennessee will continue to pose a localized flash
flood threat through early afternoon. While regional activity
remains mostly disorganized, diurnal destabilization could allow a
localized threat to expand southward into northern Mississippi and
Alabama and northwest Georgia.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery depict a broad
area of showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley. The synoptic setup features westerly low-level
moisture transport supplying a deep moisture profile with
precipitable water values hovering between 2.3 and 2.5 inches.
While an approaching weak mid-level shortwave is aiding ascent
across the region, a general lack of strong, focused low-level
convergence has kept much of the regional convection disorganized.

The primary exception is a persistent, organized cluster of storms
over southern Tennessee. This activity appears to be anchored to a
compact MCV that is locally enhancing low-level convergence. New
updraft development has been initiating upstream of this feature,
creating an axis of cell training. Given the high PWAT airmass,
this cluster is driving intense hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 3
inches. Over increasingly saturated ground conditions from
previous rainfall, these heavy rates will continue to produce
localized flash flood impacts over southern Tennessee. Confidence
remains low regarding how much longer this MCV-driven feature will
maintain its current organization, with latest IR imagery showing
some cloud top warming trends.

Furthermore, confidence is also low on whether additional
convective organization will occur elsewhere. However, as diurnal
heating continues to fuel an uptick in instability across the
region, there is potential for localized storm intensification
further south across northern MS, northern AL and northwest GA as
this MCV drifts southward. Should any localized boundary
interactions or cell backbuilding materialize within these
southern areas, intense rain rates could produce a localized flash
flood threat.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8iqpLmi3dJ6SZTDbcIS_QnoVUhAlciuek_gMj4Ukf8-IBFQ9UTfby17gxOVpUIPqg4WOroCi-8Lvq3c68RT-SqnolRQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35558716 35158584 34298474 33778536 33428660
33658822 34108986 34479011 35178943 35408850

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 18:12:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 251812
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0848
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Much of North-central & Eastern Arizona...Much of
Western & Southern New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251815Z - 260015Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms developing on the higher
terrain should move off to W and SW with potential upstream redevelopment/repeating. Rates of .75-1.25"/hr may result in
scattered localized flash flooding conditions. Due to
repeating/redevelopment, higher potential for localized 2"+ totals
across the eastern Mogollon Rim and Mogollon Mtns may have higher coverage/potential into this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad, symmetric high
pressure is centered just east of the Four Corners with a slightly
elongated SW to E entrapped shortwave feature close to Black Range
in Southwest New Mexico. This wave is helpful of low level
upslope flow from the southern deserts of AZ into the Rim and SW
NM Ranges. As such, mountain cycle upslope/convergence is well
into maturity across much of the area of concern though some areas
of remaining enhanced 700mb moisture across Graham to Soccoro
county. While winds are weak, there is general
convergence/confluence in the 700mb layer along the western and
northwestern edge of the shortwave trof and so increasing
convection, with slightly higher density is expected across the
Eastern Mogollon Rim into the Mogollan Range/Black Range over the
Next few hours. With further direct insolation, MLCAPEs are
expected to rise into the mid-1000s and isallobaric response
should further enhance moisture convergence especially out of AZ.

Deep layer flow will direct most convection westward along the Rim
and across the upper slopes of southwest Arizona through the
afternoon period with spots of .75"/hr increasing toward 1.25"/hr
toward early evening. This should result in localized incidents
of flash flooding given hard, rocky ground conditions across the
area. However, continued easterly and northeasterly confluent
flow out of the Southern High Plains into NM and through the Rio
Grande Valley; an additional round of thunderstorm activity is
expected toward late afternoon/early evening allowing for some
repeating across similar areas with a spot or two of 2" totals.

Sacramento mountains in SE NM...
While not in much of the same regime with confluent flow along the
northern and western side of the shortwave; the upslope response
should be above average today, still responding to the wave along
its southwest periphery. RAP analysis and local mesoscale wind
observations, also suggest counter upslope along the western
slopes too, which may aid to some increased duration/terrain
locking of the convective cells. As noted prior, the upslope
streamers look fairly impressive to suggest a slightly enhanced
day of convective activity. Hi-Res CAMs are supportive of
localized 2" totals along the main ridge and given proximity to
burn scars, flash flooding is considered possible this afternoon
here as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Gm4EnDwR_QS6wwTL068WLA6L8bc5OUxNIRjK6FkkIU9sdZYvrrI7Kgp61FYQsLIzHf11ICbgJ7uvEQf63ycK52OC-Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36590903 35940854 35380794 34650624 34150529
32650523 32440587 33020618 33100674 32810738
32300817 31360876 31210994 31261092 31701149
32721117 33191128 33741170 33951217 34141254
34811303 35721219 35411073 35730997 36160965
36470948

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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