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  • DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 19:30:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 151929
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 151928

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
    WESTERN MT/NORTHERN ID...AND ALSO ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
    REGION...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across
    parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts
    of the Upper Great Lakes region.

    ...Parts of ID/western MT...
    A relatively favorable thermodynamic environment is again expected
    to reside across parts of western MT and vicinity by Friday
    afternoon. Relatively steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture may
    result in MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1000 J/kg. A modest
    decrease in mid/upper-level flow is expected compared to
    D2/Thursday, as the region gradually becomes further removed from a mid/upper-level low moving across southwestern British Columbia.
    However, effective shear of 25-35 kt may develop where low-level
    flow remains east-southeasterly. Scattered thunderstorms are
    expected to develop during the afternoon and continue into at least
    the early evening. The strongest cells/clusters will be capable of
    producing isolated hail and strong to severe gusts.

    ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
    Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima may move
    southeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through
    early evening, before a stronger shortwave trough approaches the
    region by late Friday night. A frontal zone initially draped from
    northern IL/IN into northern MN will begin to shift northward as a
    warm front, while a cold front will move through parts of the
    Dakotas and northwest MN. Diurnal heating may be somewhat muted due
    to the effects of smoke, but increasing low-level moisture will
    support moderate destabilization. Moderate midlevel northwesterly
    flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm
    organization.

    Details of storm development and evolution remain uncertain across
    this region, However, isolated surface-based development will be
    possible near the cold front and effective warm front during the afternoon/evening, and one or more elevated clusters may continue
    into Friday night. There is a sufficient signal for storm
    development within a relatively favorable environment for the
    addition of 5% severe probabilities, though some adjustment will
    likely be needed in subsequent updates.

    ...Parts of the Southeast...southern Appalachians...Ohio Valley...
    Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday
    afternoon, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped
    environment. Localized downburst winds could occur within this
    environment, though deep-layer flow/shear appears too weak to
    support an organized severe threat.

    ..Dean.. 07/15/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 07:35:42 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 160735
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 160734

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Ohio
    Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours before moving
    southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic overnight. Additional
    strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon
    across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

    ... Synopsis ...

    The CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central
    Plains for much of the past week will have retrograded west by
    Saturday and be located across the US and Canadian Rockies. Strong
    mid-level westerlies will persist on the ridge's northwest, north,
    and northeast periphery. Embedded within the westerlies, a series of
    short-wave troughs and smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima will
    move across the Great Lakes and Northeast.

    At the start of the forecast period, the main short-wave trough will
    be located across central Ontario, with its associated jet streak
    located across the Upper Midwest. This feature will dig southeast on
    Saturday, ending up in the vicinity of northern New England by
    Sunday morning. Ahead of this main wave, the 20260716/00 UTC
    guidance suite shows multiple speed/vorticity maxima moving through
    the west-northwesterly flow, each of which will be capable of aiding
    the development of scattered elevated thunderstorms.

    At the surface, a weak surface low should develop Saturday morning
    across southern Ontario/the northern Great Lakes. This low will
    slowly deepen during the day as it digs southeast, reaching upstate
    New York by evening. Ahead of the surface low, southwesterly
    low-level flow will transport a very moist airmass northeast into
    the Lower Great lakes, with 70F surface dewpoints possible as far
    northeast as western New York.

    To the southwest of the surface low, a surface cold front will serve
    as an initiating boundary for thunderstorms during the afternoon. An
    unstable and strongly sheared airmass will be in place by later
    afternoon across Ohio northeast into western New York. As
    thunderstorms initiate along the front, large hail will be possible
    before thunderstorm outflows eventually congeal into one or more
    linear clusters posing a threat for damaging winds. This line of
    storms will push south and east during the evening and overnight
    with a continued threat of strong, damaging thunderstorm winds.

    Farther southeast across the Mid-Atlantic, most model guidance
    indicates the development of a surface trough to the east of the
    Appalachians during the late afternoon. To the east of this trough
    axis, temperatures will warm into the 90Fs, although there is some
    uncertainty how far north the hot boundary layer will extend. Given
    the presence of this surface trough and strong diurnal heating,
    several clusters of thunderstorms will be possible during the
    afternoon, especially if any of the previously discussed
    vorticity/speed maxima can interact with the low-level trough.
    Strong, damaging winds will be possible with any thunderstorm
    complex during the afternoon. Additional severe potential will also
    exist overnight as the remnants of the convection along the cold
    front approaches the region. Gusty thunderstorm winds will be the
    likely threat with these storms.

    ..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 19:29:00 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 161928
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 161927

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0227 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
    OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
    Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, mainly
    Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into
    late Saturday night.

    ...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and vicinity...
    Some amplification of a mid/upper-level trough is expected over the northeastern CONUS on Saturday, as multiple shortwaves move through
    the base of the trough. The primary surface low is expected to
    deepen as it moves across southern Quebec toward northern Maine. A
    trailing cold front will move through parts of the Ohio Valley and
    Northeast. A remnant surface front initially draped from western PA
    toward the Delmarva region is forecast to lift northeastward as a
    warm front through the period.

    As deep-layer flow strengthens atop a richly moist and destabilizing
    warm sector, organized severe potential is expected to develop
    across a relatively broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid
    Atlantic, with at least an isolated threat potentially reaching
    parts of New England. Uncertainties include the influence of
    early-day convection and potential persistent smoke on the
    northeastward extent of substantial surface-based destabilization.

    Along the cold front, the greatest relative threat is currently
    expected from the lower Great Lakes into eastern parts of the Ohio
    Valley, where stronger 850-700 mb flow (around 25-40 kt) is
    forecast. Organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind and
    isolated hail may evolve along/ahead of the front and spread
    eastward. Rich boundary-layer moisture and modest enhancement to
    low-level SRH may also result in some tornado threat, depending on
    storm-mode evolution. Favorable moisture/buoyancy will also extend
    westward along/ahead of the front into parts of the Midwest and
    lower Ohio Valley, but there may be more of a tendency for
    convection to be undercut by the front with westward extent.

    Farther south/east, organized convection may evolve or reintensify
    near the effective warm front by afternoon into parts of PA/NJ, and
    also develop into parts of MD/VA along/east of a surface trough.
    Very warm temperatures and steepening low-level lapse rates will
    become supportive of damaging-wind potential, and isolated hail may
    also occur. Some tornado threat could also evolve in closer
    proximity to the warm frontal zone.

    An extensive frontal QLCS may develop by evening, and continue to
    pose some wind-damage threat for as long as it persists into
    Saturday night.

    ...Northern Rockies vicinity...
    Compared to previous days, some drying from the west is expected
    across parts of MT on Saturday, as a mid/upper-level shortwave
    trough moves across parts of BC/AB through the day. High-based
    convection is still expected from ID into southwest MT and vicinity,
    though relatively weak buoyancy and deep-layer shear should limit
    storm organization. Some overlap of stronger deep-layer shear and
    moderate buoyancy is forecast to occur across parts of northern MT,
    but storm coverage within this regime is uncertain, with stronger
    large-scale ascent currently expected to remain north of the
    international border.

    ..Dean.. 07/16/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 06:28:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 170627
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 170626

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    SC/NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose
    a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern
    Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on
    Sunday.

    ...Southern Appalachians to Coastal Carolinas/Southeast Virginia...

    Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A
    couple of embedded vorticity maxima within the base of the trough
    will move across the southern Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic
    region through early evening. Deep layer westerly flow will remain
    modest, but a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in
    place. Large instability coupled with PW values near 2 inches will
    support isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A
    corridor of relative greater risk may develop from southeast VA into
    eastern NC near a stalled frontal boundary and where vertical shear
    may be modestly stronger (25 kt effective shear).

    ...Eastern ND into northern MN...

    Northwesterly flow aloft will strengthen on Sunday/Sunday night as
    upper ridging flattens a bit as an upper shortwave trough emerges
    over the Canadian Prairies. Vertically veering wind profiles will
    foster 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells
    could develop. Some potential for capping could limit storm
    coverage, but any storm that develops could be a higher-based
    supercell capable of severe hail and strong gusts.

    ..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 19:30:06 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 171929
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 171929

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose
    a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern
    Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on
    Sunday. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of
    eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota.

    ...Southern Appalachians into the Coastal Carolinas/southern VA...
    A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much of
    the eastern CONUS on Sunday. A weakening cold front may become
    nearly stationary by afternoon somewhere across southern VA.
    Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon
    along/ahead of the remnant frontal zone, and also near the higher
    terrain of the southern Appalachians.

    Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak to modest, but large
    PW, steepening low-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong
    buoyancy will support vigorous updrafts and localized downbursts. In
    addition, low/midlevel flow may be sufficient for one or two
    outflow-driven clusters to evolve with time and move southeastward
    into the early evening, with wind-damage potential.

    ...Parts of eastern MT into ND/MN...
    A vigorous shortwave trough may evolve into a mid/upper-level low as
    it moves eastward across the Canadian Prairies on Sunday. An
    attendant surface low is forecast to gradually intensify as it moves
    toward Lake Winnipeg. A surface trough/weak cold front will move
    into northeast MT during the day and across parts of the Dakotas
    during the evening.

    A conditionally favorable environment is expected to evolve across
    parts of far eastern MT into ND and northwest MN during the
    afternoon/evening, as a 40-50 kt midlevel jet and steep lapse rates
    overspread a warm and relatively moist boundary layer. However, with
    the strongest height falls and ascent expected to remain north of
    the international border, capping may inhibit diurnal storm
    development. Any storms that are able to develop and mature during
    the afternoon and early evening could evolve into organized cells or
    clusters with severe wind and hail potential.

    Even if surface-based diurnal development is suppressed, there will
    be some potential for elevated convection to develop Sunday evening
    into the overnight. Steep lapse rates, moderate elevated buoyancy,
    and sufficient effective shear could support a hail threat with the
    strongest elevated storms, and severe-wind potential with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop Sunday night.

    The Level-1/Marginal Risk has been expanded westward across ND and
    far eastern MT to account for the conditional threat in these areas,
    though confidence in the details of storm coverage and evolution
    remains low at this time.

    ..Dean.. 07/17/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 07:04:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 180704
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 180702

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0202 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds
    will be the most likely hazard with this activity.

    ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity...

    An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains will
    deepen as it shifts east/southeast over the Great Lakes.
    Northwesterly flow aloft will increase over the region as this
    occurs. A surface low will deepen as it moves across southern
    Manitoba and western Ontario toward the northern Great Lakes.
    Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across the Upper
    Midwest, becoming oriented from northern Lower MI southwestward
    toward the Lower MO Valley by Tuesday morning.

    A very moist airmass (70s dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the
    cold front, fostering a corridor of strong to extreme instability
    across parts of southeast MN into WI and portions of the Mid-MS
    Valley. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings,
    though linear forcing along the front, and the progressive nature of
    the upper trough, is likely to result in a bowing line of convection
    moving across the region. While all severe hazards will be possible
    given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, storm
    mode will likely favor a predominant risk for swaths of damaging
    winds. Eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain as
    some guidance maintains rather strong capping toward Lake MI.
    Forecast trends will be monitored, and higher probabilities may be
    needed in a subsequent outlook.

    ...North Carolina...

    Broad upper troughing will persist across portions of the eastern
    U.S. on Monday, and modest west/northwest flow aloft will overspread
    the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A stalled surface front across
    northeast NC will move north through the morning, and a very moist
    and unstable airmass will be in place. Convection developing within
    low-level confluence south of the surface boundary may pose a risk
    for wet microbursts given steep low-level lapse rates and high PW
    values.

    ..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 19:35:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 181935
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 181934

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
    THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
    Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds
    will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well.
    Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
    Carolinas.

    ...From Lake Superior to Iowa...
    A strong shortwave trough will move southeastward across the
    northern Plains and upper MS Valley on Monday, with 50-60 kt 500 mb
    winds across MN/IA/WI enhancing deep-layer shear. Early day storms
    may occur within the warm advection regime, with at least some
    threat of severe wind or hail. This activity may weaken during the
    day and give way to diurnal destabilization, with areas of strong
    instability developing. Notably, mid to high level winds will be
    quite strong, with highly elongated hodographs favoring both
    supercells and severe bows. Corridors of significant wind will be
    possible, with some models indicating a bimodal distribution
    (northern WI, and IA). However, the environment across the entire
    area ahead of cold front will conditionally support severe storms.
    Despite some uncertainties, the synoptically evident upper wave and
    ample instability support an upgrade to Enhanced Risk.

    ...North Carolina...
    A weak surface low will develop over NC with strong daytime heating
    beneath modest northwest flow aloft. Mid 70s F dewpoints will
    contribute to MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, with clusters of storms
    developing during the afternoon. Multicellular clusters appear
    likely, moving generally eastward with potential for locally
    damaging outflow winds.

    ..Jewell.. 07/18/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 07:11:24 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 190711
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 190710

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
    VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
    from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
    All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
    should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
    nighttime hours.

    ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

    A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A
    broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards,
    will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing
    surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s
    are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential
    morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day
    2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger
    heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm
    advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is
    forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat
    muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and
    increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the
    Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary
    layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat
    less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer
    flow will envelop this region as well.

    Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector,
    with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can
    develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible.
    However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and
    surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and
    spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary
    concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours.

    ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 19:35:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 191935
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 191934

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
    KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
    from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
    All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
    should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
    nighttime hours.

    ...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
    Severe storms will be likely over a large area Tuesday, from parts
    of the Midwest and Ohio valley extending across the Mid Atlantic as
    increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level
    moisture.

    A mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various
    waves rotating around. A leading wave will aid storm development
    during the day from eastern VA northward into southwest New England,
    well ahead of the main cold front to the west. Southwest flow at 850
    mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds
    aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon
    within a pre-frontal trough. Veering winds with height should
    support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds
    or isolated tornadoes may occur.

    Meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop
    immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend
    roughly from northern OH/IN into southern IL during the afternoon.
    This region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest
    flow regime. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F with MLCAPE
    over 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The long hodographs
    should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a
    few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon
    into the night.

    The greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of Kentucky
    and Indiana across Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania.
    However, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as
    predictability increases in later updates.

    ..Jewell.. 07/19/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 07:22:30 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 200722
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 200721

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for
    damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North
    Carolina.

    ...Mid-Atlantic to New England...

    Several shortwave impulses will migrate through persistent upper
    troughing over the East on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure
    will lift northeast across Quebec. A trailing cold front will move east/southeast across portions of the region, become positioned from
    the Mid-Atlantic coast into central NC by Thursday morning.
    Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain a
    seasonally moist airmass. Moderate destabilization is expected
    across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into NC where boundary-layer
    moisture is greater and stronger heating may occur. Weak instability
    will be located over New England. Around 30-40 kt southwesterly flow
    from 850-500 mb will provide sufficient vertical shear for some
    organized cells/clusters. Isolated strong to severe storms producing
    damaging winds are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into
    New England, with the greatest risk across parts of VA/NC and
    vicinity.

    ..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 19:21:38 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 201921
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 201920

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH
    CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for
    damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North
    Carolina.

    ...Discussion...
    Upper-level troughing will remain in place across the eastern US on D3/Wednesday, with several shortwave impulses rotating through. A
    cold front will be located roughly from the Mid-Atlantic south into
    the Carolinas and western Tennessee. Moisture will be largely
    scoured out behind this front, with the more favorable plume of
    moist air remaining east of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge
    Mountains across southern New England into the
    Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Daytime heating will be maximized from the
    Mid-Atlantic southward to the Carolinas, where moderate instability
    will be realized by the afternoon. Instability will be more marginal
    with north extent into New England, though strong deep layer shear
    may still support a few organized storms. Widely scattered
    thunderstorm development is expected near and ahead of the cold
    front by the afternoon, with the main hazard being damaging wind,
    with the greatest risk across parts of VA/NC and vicinity.

    Outer bands of Tropical Depression Two will bring thunderstorms
    potential inland across the Gulf States by D3/Wednesday. The tornado
    threat appears to be too marginal for an outlook area at this time.
    See advisories from the National Hurricane Center for more
    information on this potential (nhc.noaa.gov).

    ..Thornton.. 07/20/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 06:28:10 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 210627
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 210626

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However,
    locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the
    central High Plains into the northern Rockies.

    ...Central High Plains...

    Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain
    in the central Rockies during the afternoon. Easterly low-level flow
    across the adjacent High Plains will transport modest boundary layer
    moisture westward across western KS and eastern CO. Meanwhile, a
    weak surface boundary may develop south across the central High
    Plains as convection moves off higher terrain into the High Plains.
    Forecast soundings indicate generally weak midlevel lapse rates, but
    steep low-level lapse rates within modest instability (MLCAPE up to
    1000 J/kg). This could support gusty outflow winds with storms
    across the Plains. However, effective shear values in the 20-25 kt
    range and very weak flow below 500 mb suggests organized severe
    convection is unlikely amid the weakly unstable airmass.

    ...Northern Rockies...

    Some enhancement to upper flow is forecast as a shortwave upper
    trough moves across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and an upper low
    persists off the Pacific Northwest coast. Forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed boundary layer with steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Steep
    midlevel lapse rates will be sufficient for weak destabilization,
    and isolated thunderstorms are expected during the
    afternoon/evening. Given weak vertical shear and limited
    instability, organized severe potential is low, though gusty outflow
    winds could occur.

    ..Leitman.. 07/21/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 19:25:46 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 211925
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 211924

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However,
    locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the
    central High Plains.

    ...Discussion...
    The pattern on D3/Thursday will continue to favor high amplitude
    ridging across the western US and troughing in the eastern US.
    Surface high pressure will build in from the Midwest to the Ohio
    Valley with a cold front extending from the Carolinas into the Mid-South/northern Gulf states. Widely scattered thunderstorm
    activity is expected along and south of this boundary. Moist and
    moderately unstable conditions may support few strong storms with
    water loaded downburst potential, but generally weak shear should
    limit the overall severe potential.

    Across the central High Plains, easterly upslope flow will promote
    moisture advection into eastern Colorado/ Wyoming. A weak shortwave
    will rotate through the flow with thunderstorm development expected
    across the high terrain in eastern Colorado/Wyoming by the afternoon
    with a gradual shift into the central Plains into the evening.
    Initially, high based thunderstorms may pose some localized
    potential for strong to severe wind. Deep layer shear across the
    central Plains will strengthen, but increasing MLCIN with eastward
    extent will likely temper severe potential. Overall, locally gusty
    winds will be possible but organized severe potential appears too
    low and localized for inclusion of probabilities.

    ..Thornton.. 07/21/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 06:07:46 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 220607
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 220606

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions
    of eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

    ...North Dakota/Minnesota...

    An upper shortwave trough will develop southeast from the Canadian
    Prairies toward the Great Lakes on Friday. This will result in some
    enhancement of northwesterly flow aloft across the region. At the
    surface, low pressure will move from northern Manitoba into Quebec
    and a trailing cold front will drop southeast across ND and
    northern MN. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will
    transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints across parts of the eastern
    Dakotas and MN. A plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates will
    overspread the region, supporting 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically
    veering wind profiles, with 30-50 kt northwesterly flow between
    700-500 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 40
    kt. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
    afternoon/early evening near the surface front. Wind profiles
    suggest supercells will be possible. Forecast soundings indicate
    some areas may maintain weak to moderate capping, which may preclude surface-based convection. However, elevated storms will pose a risk
    for isolated large hail. If thunderstorms are surface-based, a risk
    for strong gusts and tornado would also be possible.

    ..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 19:25:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 221925
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 221924

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0224 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions
    of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

    ...Discussion...
    A trough will move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies toward
    the Great Lakes, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the
    Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A surface low will move across
    northern Manitoba into Quebec as a trailing cold front moves across
    the northern Plains. Dew points in the mid 60s to 70s will be common
    ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas into northern
    Minnesota. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread
    the region from the north and west, with moderate instability
    expected by the afternoon. Thunderstorms should develop along the
    cold front, spreading east through the afternoon and evening.
    Guidance suggests that MLCIN may hold across much of the region
    ahead of the front, which would support elevated storms struggling
    to become surface based. Strong deep layer shear would support
    supercells, capable of large hail. Should a supercell be able to
    root at the surface, damaging wind and tornado potential would
    increase. Should trends favor this outcome, higher probabilities may
    be needed with subsequent outlooks.

    ..Thornton.. 07/22/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 06:31:20 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 230631
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 230630

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0130 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

    Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited on Saturday.

    ...Northern High Plains to Upper Midwest...

    An amplified upper ridge will remain centered over the High Plains
    on Saturday. Moderately enhanced west to northwesterly flow aloft
    will overspread portions of the region near the crest of the ridge
    and into the Upper MS Valley. Forecast guidance depicts one or more
    shortwave impulses rounding the ridge from eastern MT into the
    Dakotas, and possibly parts of the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings
    indicate capping across the Upper Midwest, which may limit
    thunderstorm potential despite a moistening boundary layer with
    time.

    Further west across eastern MT into the western Dakotas, low-level
    moisture will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will
    result in weak destabilization as strong heating occurs during the
    day. Deep boundary layer mixing is forecast, and isolated to
    scattered high-based convection could develop within the weakly
    unstable airmass. Some potential for strong gusts will accompany
    this activity, but it is unclear if sufficient instability and
    moisture will exist to support severe wind gusts.

    ..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 19:22:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 231921
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 231920

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

    Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
    SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of
    southeastern Arizona on Saturday.

    ...Synopsis...
    High amplitude ridging will build in across the central US on
    D3/Saturday. West to northwesterly flow aloft will move through the
    northern periphery of the ridge across the Great Lakes into the Ohio
    Valley.

    ...Southeastern Arizona...
    Surface high pressure across the Four Corners will bring favorably
    moist east to southeasterly flow into southeastern Arizona.
    Convection will likely develop along the high terrain and spread
    westward with time through the afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear
    around 20-25 kts may allow for isolated organized storms capable of
    severe gusts, given deeply mixed profiles and steep low to mid-level
    lapse rates amid inverted-v soundings.

    ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region...
    Several embedded disturbances will rotate through the flow across
    the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Moderate to strong
    instability is progged to extend across this region, however,
    warming in the 850-700 mb will likely result in strong capping
    across much of the region from the Great Lakes into the Midwest and
    Ohio Valley. This will likely inhibit convective development and
    overall severe potential in these regions.

    ..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 07:09:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 240708
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 240707

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

    Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
    MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds
    are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into
    portions of the Ohio and mid Missouri Valleys on Sunday and Sunday
    night.

    ...Synopsis...
    Along the periphery of an upper high anchored over the central and
    southern Plains, a belt of enhanced mid-level winds will extend from
    the Pacific Northwest through south-central Canada into the Great
    Lakes. A series of perturbations will be embedded within the
    higher-momentum flow regime, the most notable being a disturbance
    tracking through southern parts of SK and MB into northwest ON and
    northern MN late Sunday night. A surface low is forecast to follow
    that same track with an associated trough or weak cool front
    advancing through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.


    ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes...
    Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to mid 70s will coincide with an eastward-expanding EML plume and associated cap to yield a fairly
    widespread reservoir of moderate to strong instability across the
    region on Sunday. There is some model signal for a subtle mid-level
    disturbance to progress from the northern Plains into the upper
    Midwest during the day with an associated band of forcing for ascent potentially serving as a focus for diurnally enhanced thunderstorm
    development. However, the absence of discernible surface boundaries
    and the residual capping leads to uncertainty in the location and
    extent of diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. Nonetheless,
    a conditional severe weather threat will exist with any storms that
    can become rooted within the boundary layer, given the presence of
    35-50 kt deep-layer shear.

    More substantial forcing for ascent is forecast Sunday evening into
    night across the upper MS Valley with the approach of the mid-level
    wave mentioned in the synopsis. At that time, the surface front will
    be moving into the area from the west, potentially serving as a
    focus for thunderstorm development. The 00Z ECMWF in particular
    depicts a large thunderstorm complex developing over that area with
    a subsequent southward movement toward the mid MO Valley Sunday
    night into early Monday. A corridor of enhanced damaging wind
    potential would exist in that scenario; however, confidence in such
    an occurrence is presently too low to include higher probabilities
    and a conditional intensity group 1 contour.

    ..Mead.. 07/24/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 19:29:06 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 241928
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 241928

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

    Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
    MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds
    are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into
    portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

    ...Synopsis...
    Enhanced mid-level flow will round the central US ridge D3/Sunday, overspreading portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Along
    with the increasing flow, several shortwave disturbances will shift
    across the region. At the surface, a low will develop across the
    northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a surface front moving through
    the northern Plains/Midwest by the evening.

    ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes...
    Beneath strong upper-level ridging and a very moist air mass with
    dew points in the 60s to mid 70s, an EML plume will advect eastward
    across the High Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. This
    will result in a very volatile and strongly unstable but largely
    capped air mass. While forcing for ascent will increase, lack of
    discernible surface features and strength of the capping inversion
    leads to low confidence in the exact evolution of thunderstorm
    development. Hi-res guidance does suggest that a few isolated
    supercells may develop. A conditional threat for large to very large
    hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado will exist with any
    storms that can become rooted within the boundary layer, given the
    presence of 35-50 kt deep-layer shear and the favorable unstable air
    mass.

    As the front shifts south and east through the afternoon/evening and
    forcing for ascent increases, storms may develop as far west as the
    eastern Dakotas/Nebraska. It seems probable that a thunderstorm
    complex could develop across some portion of the upper Mississippi
    Valley, though confidence in the exact corridor remains low. This
    will pose a conditional threat for a more focused corridor of
    damaging wind potential.

    ..Thornton.. 07/24/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 07:20:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 250720
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 250719

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

    Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREAT
    LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible
    across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday
    night.

    ...Synopsis...
    A potent short-wave trough and associated 50+ kt mid-level jet will
    move through the Great Lakes within the northeast periphery of an
    upper high centered over the southern High Plains. That upper-air
    system will be attended by a deepening surface low that is forecast
    to develop from the MN Arrowhead through the U.P. and northern Lower
    MI into southwest ON during the forecast period. Meanwhile, a
    trailing cold front will advance through the upper Midwest and Great
    Lakes into the OH Valley.


    ...Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
    Clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts
    of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a broad zone of
    low-level warm advection and increasing forcing/DCVA downstream from
    the mid-level trough. A fairly large area of moderate instability
    and seasonably strong vertical shear is forecast at the outset of
    the forecast period, and as such, the most intense storms will be
    capable of large hail and damaging winds. A subset of the early-day
    storms may evolve into one or multiple MCSs by afternoon ahead of
    the surface low and cold front, leading to a corridor of more
    focused damaging wind potential from Lower MI into IN and OH, and
    possibly parts of KY and WV Monday night.

    Despite the presence of strong instability along the front from the
    mid MS Valley into mid/lower MO Valley, stronger capping and weaker
    forcing for ascent are expected to lower the chance of thunderstorm development.


    ...Central High Plains...
    Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon into evening
    within a moderately unstable, post-frontal upslope flow regime.
    Generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit storm
    organization; however, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse
    rates and potentially large temperature-dewpoint spreads suggests a
    threat for isolated severe wind gusts.

    ..Mead.. 07/25/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 19:26:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 251926
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 251925

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

    Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
    GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible
    across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday
    night.

    ...Great Lakes to Ohio Valley...
    A large upper ridge will hold over the Rockies and into the Plains,
    with a moderate northwest flow regime from the Upper MS Valley and
    Great Lakes into the OH Valley/Appalachians. While embedded
    perturbations will exist during the day, the most prominent height
    falls will occur Monday night over the Great Lakes.

    At the surface, low pressure will develop late in the day from WI
    into Lower MI, with a cold front pushing south overnight trailing
    southwestward into northern IL. A moist and unstable air mass will
    redevelop and push eastward across the region late in the day and
    overnight as 850 mb winds near 40 kt develop out of the west.

    Some ongoing activity may be present from Upper MI into WI, and this
    could either persist or strengthen during the day as the system
    develops southeastward. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt along with the
    strong instability could support a southward-moving MCS capable of
    damaging winds, perhaps with significant gusts. Will maintain
    current Slight Risk due to uncertainty, but higher probabilities
    could be needed in later outlooks.

    ...Eastern WY into western NE...
    Beneath the upper ridge, eastern low-level winds in a post frontal
    regime will aid westward moistening, with marginal instability. A
    deep mixed boundary layer will favor damaging wind gusts with
    activity that develops in the uncapped air mass during the late
    afternoon. Modest westerlies aloft and weak low-level easterlies
    should favor southeastward-moving storms with locally severe outflow
    winds.

    ..Jewell.. 07/25/2026

    $$

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