ACUS11 KWNS 222014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222013
LAZ000-TXZ000-222215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222013Z - 222215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across southeast
Texas over the next 1-2 hours, with southwestward-moving storms
bringing a threat for damaging/severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate that temperatures
have warmed to near 100 F amid dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s F
across southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Satellite imagery
depicts a deepening cumulus field along a weak confluence zone with
recent lightning activity noted. While mid-level lapse rates remain
poor, hot and humid conditions are supporting strong buoyancy
(MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg sampled by the 18z LCH observed sounding), and
further heating will support thunderstorm development within this
environment over the next 1-2 hours. Deep-layer northeasterly flow
and enhanced effective shear along the western periphery of Tropical
Storm Bertha will favor a cluster or two of southwestward
propagating thunderstorms, with well-mixed boundary layer profiles
(observed dewpoint depressions of around 25 F), very high PW (2.55
inches sampled by the LCH sounding), and enhanced mid-level flow
(35-45+ kts sampled at 3-4 km AGL by the LCH/POE VAD profiles)
supporting a risk for damaging/severe wind gusts. Consideration may
be given to a targeted Severe Thunderstorm Watch pending the
development of a stronger cluster or two.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6WVBU71qHii_BiAHE5Kb_JgrP3NQpGclCsypbX2tsM_GZ-UZh-gVpApuS_yZLHMh_nROlJdgO-ih2sDXcZu6AVFg1Kk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 31339419 31219402 30949381 30599368 30309370 30039371
29599387 29319455 28929513 28579571 28519603 28569648
28789670 29309685 29959682 30679644 31069608 31359556
31449515 31449465 31339419

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)