ACUS11 KWNS 222020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222019
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...northeast Colorado and vicinity to far southwest
Kansas and southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222019Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms capable of isolated
severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop within a well-mixed
airmass along a stalled front from southeast Colorado and arcing
back to the Front Range near the Denver metro area. The two most
likely corridors for storms at this time are across southeast
Colorado where clusters of cumulus have developed with temperatures
near 100F and off of the terrain in north-central Colorado.
Temperatures in the 90s with dewpoints in the 50s (yielding 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE) and 25 to 30 knots of mid-level shear will support some
organized multicells capable of isolated severe wind gusts. The
marginal shear and instability will limit a greater threat.
Therefore, no watch is anticipated.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4K8gd5mwtCcGZqgx6Y3GG4ELP1rvU_f85WORRL00OVKN0-hgEr85YBNbNv3U_5kNMjYw8DIcyTDAv5jfII_n5QTLty8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40510219 38490151 37200115 36810162 37090240 37810290
38590389 39530529 40250562 40750575 41070579 41540531
41560446 41290322 40510219

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)