Forum: War Ensemble BBS

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 22:39:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 302239
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-310400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1152
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
638 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Southern and Central Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302240Z - 310400Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving monsoon thunderstorms will have potential
for clustering and localized rates to 1-1.5"/hr and isolated
totals to 2".

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and regional RADAR mosaic depict a few
axes of convective initiation along the outer periphery of the
deeper layer moisture gradients with the more vigorous across La
Paz into S Mohave county where there is a broad field of cu
indicative of the higher instability. Gulf of California moisture
has pooled through the Lower Colorado into the deserts with high
60s even low 70s Tds across, though mid-level higher capping in
far SW AZ is slightly cooler aloft where the activation and cu
field exists with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE; with the moisture and
instability axis starting to angle SW to NE across the Sun Valley
into the central Mogollon Rim toward the confluent northern stream
from the coastal Californian Pacific and the south to
southeasterly flow returning out of NW Mexico around the edge of
the ridge.

An MCV from last night's complex over Sonora continues to slowly
drift west toward the Gulf coast, but a northward
confluence/convergence band extends into W Pima county where
convergence and slightly weak anticyclonic curvature into the moisture/instability axis has further maximized moisture
convergence for a few Tcu/CBs in a smaller cu field. A few
isolated thunderstorms along higher mountain ridges in Cochise
county and far SW NM, will continue to advance westward as well;
but strengthening southerly low level flow is expected to help
further expand convective activity into clusters across S central
and West-central AZ through the early overnight. Given total
PWats of 1.75" and 10-15kts increasing toward 20kts, moisture flux
should allow for efficient rainfall with rates up to 1.5"/hr.
Deep layer steering is still weak in the broad area between
streams, at 5-10kts generally convergent to suggest some possible
mergers or at least colliding outflow boundaries to perpetuate new
development. As such, isolated to widely scattered cells may
result in localized 2" totals. Still, even 30 minute intense
rates with .5-1" totals may still result in localized flash
flooding for the remainder of the evening into the early overnight
period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8tQDitV1m9QUjj9AedeZSprgBr5fcCbgjT9Wn8REZ0EM1E_Rwjf63vG6jhjqokAZ05BS4AAzPZJIouwZ-Z2XSxpzQcc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35331208 34271084 33780958 32870961 31550920
31180969 31161029 31301170 31621242 31801292
32621326 33161367 33781448 34611403 35261340

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 23:42:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 302341
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-310530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1153
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
740 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Utah...Western Colorado...Northwest New Mexico...Northeast Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302345Z - 310530Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of flash flooding remain possible
though early overnight period as scattered to numerous
thunderstorms cross the Four Corners with sub-hourly .5-1" totals.
A few random repeats may allow for isolated totals to 1.5".

DISCUSSION...GOES-E/W WV suite continues to present a very dynamic
environment across the Intermountain west as upstream shortwave is
digging into a more closed low over central coast of California
with broadening shortwave ridging (and diffluence) across UT/N AZ
while much of CO remains in the expanding right entrance region of
the exiting stronger 90+kt jet. All of which provides broad scale
ascent pattern across the Four Corners to maintain stronger
embedded thunderstorms. Combined with return
moisture/instability out of the low deserts of AZ through the San
Francisco Plateau ahead of a developing shortwave to help
accelerate surface to mid-level southwesterly moisture flux across
the area. As such, GOES-E 10.3um EIR and Visible loop shows
numerous lines of active cores and overshooting tops within
generally WSW to ENE bands across central UT into central CO;
southern UT into S CO and more scattered/fragmented cores across
NE AZ into NW NM. Strong bulk shear is allowing for stronger,
rotating updrafts capable of further moisture flux convergence
into the bases for efficient low level rainfall production. Above
normal (95th percentile) moisture with broad area of 1-1.25" in
lower terrain and .75-1" across the mid-sized ranges provide ample
moisture. However, the higher shear comes at a loss of residency
for any given cells, but sub-hourly totals of .5-.1" remain
possible given updrafts strength via remaining broad area of 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE, that will slowly diminish with loss of heating.
Though orientation of cells with deep unidirectional steering flow
may promote random repeating for very spotty 1.5" totals.

Recent daily cycles of scattered thunderstorms have further
reduced the already naturally low FFG values across the region
with most below 1"/hr and less than 1.5"/3hrs, not to mention
naturally complex terrain/steep slopes, narrow canyons, and
arroyos to help channel the high runoff. As such scattered
incidents of flash flooding remain possible through the early
overnight period across the Four Corners states.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!54W-w1FuzPIGpuB1_old-7de7hVG4DV0hZ5l-rkkfF3F6CSGL8mJvoVrPCSvH-m4PXjM7f0-xa_8LzneaGB3274Y9Q8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40880899 40780784 40220703 39080639 37920700
36980665 35910712 34440820 33960971 34901103
37231174 39131159 40041183 40721067

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 04:24:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 310424
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-310915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1154
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1223 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 310422Z - 310915Z

SUMMARY...Nocturnal thunderstorms are expected to persist and
possibly initiate across portions of AZ through 09Z. A general
northward motion is expected with these storms, which will be
capable of 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour or less.

DISCUSSION...GOES infrared satellite and radar imagery at 04Z
showed a small cluster of thunderstorms just south of the Phoenix
metro along with a few cells expanding to the west of Phoenix to
the north of I-10 in western Maricopa County. Elsewhere,
additional cells which were more discrete in nature were noted in
southern Mohave and La Paz counties. New cell development appears
to be related to outflow associated with the expanding cluster of
storms near and west of Phoenix. MLCAPE varied across central to
north-central AZ from about 500 to just over 1500 J/kg via 03Z SPC
mesoanalysis data and the 00Z RAOB from PSR, along with varying
degrees of near-surface CIN. Moisture was anomalous with the
latest blended TPW imagery showing 125 to 175 percent of normal
across central and western AZ as of 03Z.

Given AZ was located between an advancing closed low along the
south-central CA coast and elongated ridge axis extending through
southern NM, mean steering flow of cells is likely to remain
toward the north and northeast overnight. Low level southerly to
southwesterly flow over central to southern AZ, aligned with the
mean steering flow could allow for a few areas of repeating and
short term training. The environment has already shown capability
for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with slower moving cells,
which should continue across localized portions of central to
north-central AZ over the next 3-5 hours.

Some short term model guidance indicates the potential for
additional convective development across portions of southeastern
AZ later tonight, with expansion northward, although this remains
uncertain given the current level of thunderstorm activity across
the region is low. Nonetheless, some limited potential for
additional development will remain to the east of the Phoenix
metro later tonight, with movement toward the north.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4JvZlGN0jsFhoUy5aE9gvpmZgtHtBUNlCt02PCHSHBYFrCw2rrpBZ-Y6QFQQNY4oJRDW2dgilITliVSNlxnoPJqisxc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36371293 36261206 35361084 34051064 32870987
32111024 32781193 33361321 33801400 34481429
35461426 36081356

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 05:31:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 310531
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-310930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1155
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Four Corners region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310529Z - 310930Z

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated flash flooding will persist
across the Four Corners region through 09Z. Repeating and brief
training of thunderstorms will be capable of 1-2 inches of rain in
an hour.

DISCUSSION...0510Z infrared satellite and radar imagery showed
widely scattered thunderstorms over northeastern AZ into
southeastern UT and northwestern NM, with southwestern CO fairly
quiet at the moment. SPC mesoanalysis data from 05Z showed PWs
near 1 inch across the Four Corners region and lingering MLCAPE of
~500 J/kg over northeastern AZ into far southeastern UT with less
than 500 J/kg into CO and NM. Despite the fairly limited
instability, upstream regeneration of cells has been noted across
northeastern NM into southeastern UT (Navajo into southern San
Juan counties). The continued development appears to be related to
lower level southwesterly flow interacting with storm-related
outflows, beneath divergent and diffluence noted aloft within the right-entrance region of a strengthening 70-90 kt jet max
extending northeastward from the UT/CO border.

Expectations are for isolated flash flood potential to persist
across the For Corners region over the next 3-5 hours, mainly
across northeastern AZ into far southeastern UT and perhaps
northwestern NM into southwestern CO where forecast instability is
expected to remain the greatest. While likely to remain rather
isolated in nature, the potential for hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches will continue the limited possibility for flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!83qe7GfKSqxWg9AZQ0u28Tui9WgXmWsQzu9XUIVoBdDKl4afVK36RW7V2SaXfF3r3MwCmZLfzDFR8mKUcS59dcwYz88$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38310852 38130727 37490615 36060619 34830754
34390894 34240988 34971063 36071143 36861125
37371080 38090980

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 09:16:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 310916
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-311400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1156
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
515 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...central to eastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310914Z - 311400Z

SUMMARY...Continued rounds of nocturnal thunderstorms will
maintain at least an isolated flash flood risk across portions of
central to eastern AZ through 14Z. Hourly rainfall locally
exceeding 1 inch but with 15 minute rainfall between 0.5 and 1.0
inches should be expected.

DISCUSSION...0845Z infrared satellite and radar imagery showed a
few regions with ongoing convection across central to
southern/southeastern AZ. The remains of an earlier cluster of
thunderstorms that passed through the Phoenix metro between 04-05Z
was located near Flagstaff, although it had weakened into a pocket
of more stable air. However, an embedded MCV appears to be present
just south of Flagstaff with renewed convective development along
its eastern flank, along with a tail of convection extending
southward from just south of the MCV circulation into southern
Pima County. At least one other mesoscale circulation with
neighboring thunderstorms to its south was present in southeastern
AZ.

These storms were all tracking generally north within weakly
confluent low to mid-level flow, embedded within a ribbon of
anomalous moisture in the mid to upper levels, as seen on OSPO
ALPW imagery streaming north from western Mexico. Remaining
instability varied across the region per RAP and SPC mesoanalysis
data, but 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated over portions of
central to southern AZ, while a small region of MLCAPE up to ~500
J/kg was present across northeastern AZ.

Outflows and mesoscale circulations embedded within the mean south
to southwesterly flow are expected to continue periods of
convection through sunrise across central to eastern AZ. Repeating
and brief merging of cells may produce heavy rain with hourly
rainfall locally exceeding 1 inch and high sub-hourly rates of 0.5
to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes. While these higher rain rates are
expected to remain localized, overlap with normally dry washes and
sensitive terrain could result in areas of flash flooding through
~14Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8vz4q0V8w6hhds9pK5SF7E2UkSdyP4nSJhIzXQMd1XdDixLMi8UgTVjqWbBtAiZ845bLfba3X4sdPHOBPXsTCYiEazM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36671006 36580927 35970890 34750890 33420890
32020902 31250916 31131006 31401140 31931195
33171223 34881212 35811186 36501115

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 14:08:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 311407
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-312005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1157
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1007 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona, Utah, and eastern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311405Z - 312005Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across southern Arizona
in the near term, but will expand northward into much of Utah
through 20Z/2p mountain.

Discussion...A mid-level trough over central California was
continuing to provide forcing/ascent for widespread convection
primarily across eastern AZ and far southern UT this morning. The
greatest concentration of flash flood potential exists across
south-central AZ, where ascent is combining with greater
surface-based instability (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and very high
moisture content (1.5+ inch PW) for occasional strong storms with
local rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr at times. These rates were
exceeding FFG on a localized basis, while occasionally occurring
in/near sensitive terrain, prompting continued flash flood
potential in the near term particularly from Phoenix Metro
southward to the International Border.

Recent visible satellite imagery depicts several areas of
cumulus/towering cumulus across areas from western AZ into
south-central NV and western UT, with deeper convection also noted
in south-central UT. That region is also under the influence of
the aforementioned CA mid/upper wave (providing ascent), and as sunshine/destabilization occurs amid the moisture plume over the
area (characterized by 0.75-1.5 inch PW), additional storms with
flash flood potential will likely materialize. Kinematic fields
support appreciable northward/north-northeastward drift of
individual cells, although as convection expands in coverage,
areas of backbuilding and merging will prolong rainfall enough to
promote local 1 inch/hr rain rates and flash flood potential -
especially near sensitive terrain and/or burn scars.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9vf5uKDVSGy21RWrUYw9xOe1LzwpZVHoNX9eBYuvV4_RfOTglH8Dg8MsfXBVla6tB34zVvxHrz0-7ttdnDTJMQ1usn0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40151162 39211038 37760999 36131023 33781034
32021071 31401106 31521239 32191399 32671469
33721440 34841461 36191496 38761498 39751432
40111312

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 17:03:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 311636
FFGMPD
FLZ000-312234-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311634Z - 312234Z

Summary...Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists especially
in urban areas of central and south Florida through 22Z/6p eastern.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms are developing primarily
along the eastern coast of Florida currently. The storms are
forming in response to subtle seabreeze and inland heating amid a
very moist/unstable airmass (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 2.4 inch PW)
capable of fostering very heavy rainfall beneath mature storms.
The environment also contains minimal convective inhibition, weak
forcing, and nearly negligible steering flow aloft, supporting
outflow-dominant storms with slow/erratic movement. Storms were
already producing spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates in Miami/Dade
Metro (per MRMS), supporting an isolated flash flood risk in that
area. On the whole, rain rates should only exceed FFG on a spotty
basis, with flash flood potential tied to urban areas where
hydrophobic surfaces can foster excessive runoff.

Over the next 4-6 hours, convection will continue to expand in
coverage due to continued surface heating/destabilization.
Increasing incidences of mergers should result in local rain rates
exceeding 2 inches/hr at times as well. Storms should also
develop/propagate toward the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
in the 20-22Z timeframe as well.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6gFAFBCGZn0ftbPVPYCzvc8Dz_32Slrt3vwwvp7xJBQG8fyYZXfv_VHJnGBvNflNBq5MoFvGIS67VD6xyueQ1eajNcI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28888117 27978035 26397999 25178045 25058105
25878179 27398277 28288280 28758216

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 19:39:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 311938
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-010110-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nevada...Central and Southern
Utah...Northwest Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311940Z - 010110Z

SUMMARY...Scattered very intense, efficient thunderstorms with
capability of 1.5"/hr rates and widely scattered 1.5-2.5" totals
(possible isolated 3") likely to result in flash flooding into
this evening. Overlap with highly prone, flashy rivers/canyons,
may result in spots of significant flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV loop shows longwave trough is sliding
through the developing closed shortwave over central NV providing
increased vorticity across east-central NV into SW UT, this is
concurrent with strong broadly anticyclonically curved jet streak
across central AZ to NE UT denoted well by broad cirrus canopy
with embedded west to east transverse banding indicative of the
strengthening jet. This shield is also dense enough to have
limited the insolation across portions of the Four Corners, but
west where full insolation has occurred is also under broad
diffluence along with the dPVA for strong upper-level
support/outflow regime for convective development.

CIRA LPW also denotes the strong synoptic structure to the
deepening cyclone through layers, with 700-500mb denoting
important structures across NV, with tight inner core enhanced
moisture near the mid-level cyclone extending eastward along the
deep layer frontal/deformation zone pooled across north-central
UT, while a narrow dry slot crosses Clark county nosing toward SW
UT. In the lowest layers, the sub-tropically connected surface to
700mb layers show a narrow ribbon of anomalous moisture with Tds
in the mid to upper 60s in the Colorado River Valley proper,
angling to the nose of the aforementioned dry slot while broader
850-700mb .5-.66" moisture covers NW AZ filtering into UT. As
such Total PWats of 1.25-1.5" fill the valley extending into far
southern UT spread eastward into SE UT. These moisture values are
2-3 standard anomalies from normal in monsoon season with some
portions of northern and central UT reaching 97th to 99th
percentiles through this evening.

With the full insolation and note of low level moisture
intersected with steepening lapse rates in the narrow dry slot,
RAP analysis denotes a small pocket of 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
far SE NV but 1500-2000 J/kg extend outward along a well defined
effective dryline (60s dropping to 30s within 50-100km) generally
between LSV and DRA/TPH and then again with a drop off between
mid-50s Tds and low 40s Tds across west-central UT, though strong
southerly (10-15kts) is helping to filter/deepen moisture profiles
northward with time.

As such, given the divergence/dPVA, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms have developed in the diffluent region across SE NV
into SW UT. Cores are broadening with time and broader than
typical up/downdrafts in average monsoon days. This will increase
local residency though forward cell motions are 20-30kts, only
slowed by weak to moderate updraft rotation (note bulk shear in
the 40-45kt range). The overall moisture flux will support rates
of 1.5"/hr and given orientation of linear features in the
diffluent region, there could be random intersections in 2-4 hour
ranges to support localized 1.5-2.5" totals with an isolated spot
or two of 3"+ not withstanding. The sheer intensity alone on
rugged/rocky terrain would result in flash flooding, but longer
than normal durations at any given point will likely result in
scattered to numerous incidents of flash flooding this afternoon
into evening. Where cells align for repeating and totals of
2-3", an incident or two of significant or even catastrophic flash
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7JSfm8zdLzbgerfEYaSuFEOPCA8CBkJR5QqVIMi9100R3tDEiDldH-3xDd6TLnUJZ_2qgCfT9xVxUvXnecpJTCOYGoc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40581104 39911019 38671027 37091088 35771162
34751267 35141364 35981423 37061498 37741555
38531636 39101627 39511535 39601524 40501296

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 19:42:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 311941
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-010130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1159...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Corrected for Valid Time

Areas affected...Southeast Nevada...Central and Southern
Utah...Northwest Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311940Z - 010130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered very intense, efficient thunderstorms with
capability of 1.5"/hr rates and widely scattered 1.5-2.5" totals
(possible isolated 3") likely to result in flash flooding into
this evening. Overlap with highly prone, flashy rivers/canyons,
may result in spots of significant flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV loop shows longwave trough is sliding
through the developing closed shortwave over central NV providing
increased vorticity across east-central NV into SW UT, this is
concurrent with strong broadly anticyclonically curved jet streak
across central AZ to NE UT denoted well by broad cirrus canopy
with embedded west to east transverse banding indicative of the
strengthening jet. This shield is also dense enough to have
limited the insolation across portions of the Four Corners, but
west where full insolation has occurred is also under broad
diffluence along with the dPVA for strong upper-level
support/outflow regime for convective development.

CIRA LPW also denotes the strong synoptic structure to the
deepening cyclone through layers, with 700-500mb denoting
important structures across NV, with tight inner core enhanced
moisture near the mid-level cyclone extending eastward along the
deep layer frontal/deformation zone pooled across north-central
UT, while a narrow dry slot crosses Clark county nosing toward SW
UT. In the lowest layers, the sub-tropically connected surface to
700mb layers show a narrow ribbon of anomalous moisture with Tds
in the mid to upper 60s in the Colorado River Valley proper,
angling to the nose of the aforementioned dry slot while broader
850-700mb .5-.66" moisture covers NW AZ filtering into UT. As
such Total PWats of 1.25-1.5" fill the valley extending into far
southern UT spread eastward into SE UT. These moisture values are
2-3 standard anomalies from normal in monsoon season with some
portions of northern and central UT reaching 97th to 99th
percentiles through this evening.

With the full insolation and note of low level moisture
intersected with steepening lapse rates in the narrow dry slot,
RAP analysis denotes a small pocket of 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
far SE NV but 1500-2000 J/kg extend outward along a well defined
effective dryline (60s dropping to 30s within 50-100km) generally
between LSV and DRA/TPH and then again with a drop off between
mid-50s Tds and low 40s Tds across west-central UT, though strong
southerly (10-15kts) is helping to filter/deepen moisture profiles
northward with time.

As such, given the divergence/dPVA, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms have developed in the diffluent region across SE NV
into SW UT. Cores are broadening with time and broader than
typical up/downdrafts in average monsoon days. This will increase
local residency though forward cell motions are 20-30kts, only
slowed by weak to moderate updraft rotation (note bulk shear in
the 40-45kt range). The overall moisture flux will support rates
of 1.5"/hr and given orientation of linear features in the
diffluent region, there could be random intersections in 2-4 hour
ranges to support localized 1.5-2.5" totals with an isolated spot
or two of 3"+ not withstanding. The sheer intensity alone on
rugged/rocky terrain would result in flash flooding, but longer
than normal durations at any given point will likely result in
scattered to numerous incidents of flash flooding this afternoon
into evening. Where cells align for repeating and totals of
2-3", an incident or two of significant or even catastrophic flash
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4V62Gx10gy4WZ-3cJOLgRvrYQhIRXMd4zO3EeLCvrBuIUc3_4usBUalRQ0kLUXQjKO_QchCn6RqkE46BXiMj3xQGmOY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40581104 39911019 38671027 37091088 35771162
34751267 35141364 35981423 37061498 37741555
38531636 39101627 39511535 39601524 40501296

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 20:30:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 312030
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-010200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...Bootheel of New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312030Z - 010200Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding risk continues as cluster of
thunderstorms shifts east through far southern AZ. Rates up to
1.5"/hr and slow eastward propagation may result in spots of 2"
totals may result in localized flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...KEMX and GOES-E Visible imagery depict a
strengthening north-south line of convection across far southeast
Cochise county with broad shield precipitation extending northward
into the broad right entrance region of exiting upper-level jet
streak. However, very unstable air mass still resides across much
of northern Sonora into NW Chihuahua/far SW New Mexico with pool
of conditionally unstable/moist air supportive of 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, though eastern edge of deep layer subtropical moisture
feed reduces below 1" around 108W. Solid southerly flow off the
eastern Gulf of California is helping to recharge the upstream
environment in the wake of the initial line across Pima county; as
such, risk of additional thunderstorm development through late
evening will keep risk of potential flash flooding westward as
well as broad confluence along/ahead of the main longwave trough
continues upstream as well. Total PWats still remain above 1.4"
and given the moisture flux confluence in the stream from the
unmixed air across northern Old Mexico into SE AZ, rates of
1.25-1.5"/hr remain possible. Residency could add for timing as
eastward propagation remains slow as deep layer steering into the
right entrance region remains south to north. As such a spot or
two of 2" totals is possible. Given recent rains across much of
the area for multiple days and rocky/rugged terrain, localized
flash flooding remains possible through the evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8njqRrPWR5rsWO_Qyv9Ypuov5RxOCiyREm2L3AGp7MHPzGvJksglWAbXlT4Wn12egXYHG_ZQhzE48UgPb1QRbd2QX4Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33190963 32300881 31980837 31660807 31310816
31260871 31271067 31291114 31391168 31801286
32131293 32061206 32211121 33031020

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 22:09:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 312209
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-010330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1161
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Lower Colorado River Valley of Southwest AZ and
Adj. CA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312210Z - 010330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, high moisture content thunderstorms capable
of 1.5-2"/hr rates resulting in localized 1.5-2.5" totals and
possible incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows sharp gradient in 7.4um,
Low-Level of warm air along the upwind edge of the Lower Colorado
River, confirmed in the 700-500mb LPW suite as dry air helps to
steepen lapse rates. This concurrent with surface to 700mb
southerly flow in VWP continuing to usher high theta-E air through
the Valley with mid-60s Tds and pockets of .75-.8" in the
Sfc-850mb layer. RAP analysis denotes Tds drop quickly west of
the River resulting in a strong north-south density gradient and
with weak confluence along it from the SSE and SSW, provides
sufficient convergence for isolated to widely scattered convective
initiation over the last hour or so, with additional TCu within a
narrow field of cu across SW Arizona along the 2000 J/kg MLCAPE
instability axis.

Effective bulk shear in the 35kt range suggests modest
organization to the updrafts with weak rotation already denoted in
RADAR and Meso-sector Visible imagery (please refer to SPC MCD
2182 for more details). As such, localized isallobaric response
further increases moisture flux of the 1.7-1.9" Total PWat air to
support rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr, with time, some isolated 2"/hr
rates could be possible as sub-base environment moistens with
initial downdrafts. Deep layer flow, deflected slightly by the
rotation of the updrafts will result in slowed forward speed to
the ENE at 10-15kts. This will increase local residency time and
widely scattered spots of 2-2.5" totals may result. This is
generally in line with the evolution of the 18z RRFS/Nam-Nest
which seem to handle CI within a narrow conditionally unstable
environment better than HRRR solutions.

Further development with potential for eventual left splitting
updrafts that may intersect/merge with cells further north along
the north-south cu field may further increase coverage of these
localized higher rainfall amounts. As such, additional incidents
of flash flooding are considered possible through the evening into
early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ffrPkhX8sSDE1Tyc4R5ZbbLm1Yzru25_R8jindz79BQeILYOMBIZBuZ7iGSYR4J3gI9eYNnAcKdLGpd9rYXA1GuBI0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35121419 34851342 33551344 32531315 31991305
31981361 32201439 32451487 33701479 34901471

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 23:53:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 312353
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-010530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Northern UT...Southwest to South-Central
WY...Northwest CO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312355Z - 010530Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered slow moving thunderstorms capable of
.5-.75"/hr rates with some back-building/repeating potential for
spots .75-1.25" totals may result in localized flash flooding
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...A very dynamic environment continues to unfold across
the Intermountain West, as compact closed shortwave continues to
slowly wobble northeast out of central NV into northern UT with
negative tilt trough sweeping through southern UT, interaction
with southern stream shortwave near the Four Corners, effectively
acting as a triple point system near the interface of the 'warm
conveyor belt' and upper-level jet structure, though main right
entrance region has been broadening across S ID into Northern WY
with sharp shortwave ridging as the jet quickly angles more west
to east across the Northern Plains. As a result a broad axis of
strong dPVA ascent accompanied by upper-level divergence across
much of UT into Western CO continues to support broad scale ascent
even with more limited/scattered pockets of remaining unstable
air.

Much of the cirrus canopy inhibited insolation across the Four
Corners today, but along the northern periphery of the cirrus were
some pockets of filtered insolation across N UT, SW WY into
north-central CO; MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across the area of
concern combined with the lift and continued strong low level
moisture flux into the region has started to see scattered pockets
of stronger convective initiation breaking through the cirrus
across N UT (near SLC), north of the Unita Range and further east
toward areas west of the North Park of CO. Deep layer moisture of
.75-1" with the strengthening west to east axis of moisture
convergence and pockets of vertical ascent allow for narrow core
convective cells to convert to .5-.75"/hr rates, with much of the
bursts coming in sub-hourly time steps. With strong southerly
low-level flow, back-building and therefore short-term repeating
is possible resulting in localized spots of .75-1.25" over 2-3hrs.

Much of the area has seen above average rainfall (per AHPS and
NASA SPoRT 0-40cm RSM ratios above average) combined with
naturally low FFG values (.75-1"/hr and <1.5"/3hrs) suggests
localized exceedance may be possible though late evening into the
overnight period. As such widely scattered incident or two of
flash flooding remains possible, especially over the next few
hours. However, loss of heating/instability will slowly diminish
the strongest rainfall rates, but the strong dynamic ascent may
maintain modest, broadening shield precip through the early
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5rS1WqML2mJlQS6Zbskg3HAjQsWrWldnOqzFxK3lb44QQAoajDI8PmE2wxC07bT0OLFPSaBjZNjR7ml6W1XzStbDudc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41961089 41840974 41700812 41330670 40730610
39980614 39490719 39390879 39661041 39911165
40261247 40681290 41321281 41901223

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 00:25:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010025
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-010600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1163
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Utah...Northwest Arizona...Ext
Southeast Nevada...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010030Z - 010600Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding risk likely to continue into early
overnight period as lingering cells track through areas already
affected with ongoing flooding. Additional 1-2" in spots as
convective lines still show some repeating potential in the near
term.

DISCUSSION...Current fading visible, 3.9um SWIR loops from GOES-E
and RADAR mosaic continue to show SW to NE bands of thunderstorms
across SW UT and far NW AZ tracking eastward under the influence
of the exiting compact shortwave and negative tilt trof currently
analyzed along the central NV/UT border. This places the
convection generally behind the strongest dPVA/forcing; however,
low level flow continues to respond out of the Lower Colorado
river Valley through SW UT toward the core of the height-falls
across central UT. Higher theta-E air continued to replenish the
mixed air with pool of remaining conditionally unstable air
centered along the corner of NV/AZ/UT with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
though there is some building capping with loss of solar
heating... as noted with diminishing cu field. Still, the
15-20kts of flow from the unstable air intersecting with the
ongoing convection will support some back-building and perhaps
isolated new development along the convergent upstream edge
through the Grand Canyon region of northwest AZ into the Kaibab
Forest Plateau.

Given total Pwats remain in the 1.5" range, mostly fed below
700mb, efficient cells currently near 1.25-1.5" will slowly weaken
toward 1" and less with time and distance from remaining
unstable/moist air. Still, favorable WSW to ENE propagation/cell
motions will support possible repeating in the short-term while
also tracking through areas already heavily affected by earlier
round today as well as multiple rounds over the weekend. As such,
spots of additional 1-2" will likely result in a more widely
scattered reaggrivation of flash flooding across S UT and N AZ,
with some lower potential further north and east as the forcing
wave continues to exit the region.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_HZdeaYmjxgmfOrhXKWTY6MiUcbj0uHUSGkLx3Hmm7VF9zqowyyBh8A5g9aphqEvDTxwx_GWHgVgDTXCdzGou1whagc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39571205 39311059 38461044 37361079 36501160
35901260 35961397 36931503 37811509 38681398

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 09:52:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010952
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-011550-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...southwestern LA to upper TX coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010950Z - 011550Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rain associated with T.S. Edouard will likely
begin to impact southwestern LA into the upper TX coast over the
next 3-6 hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, with isolated
values over 2 inches, are expected. Isolated flash to urban
flooding may occur as a result.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Edouard was located about 65 miles
southeast of Cameron, LA via the 09Z NHC advisory, moving toward
the west-northwest at 7 kt. Since 03Z, the infrared satellite
presentation from GOES East showed the compact tropical system
contained a majority of convection to the north and east of the
cyclone's center, likely due to an intrusion of drier air located
northwest of the system wrapping around into the south side of the
circulation. However, recent colder cloud tops have been noted
south of the center since 08Z with Edouard appearing healthier
compared to 6-9 hours earlier.

Given the 09Z NHC advisory forecast track/timing and discussion
indicating the likelihood for Edouard to strengthen as it
approaches the Gulf Coast, it seems probable that banding will
become better organized to the north of the center with low level
convergence aided by frictional convergence along the coastline.
In addition, should the system continue to become better
organized, convection near the eyewall may also become better
defined with the center of Edouard forecast by the 09Z NHC
advisory to be near the mouth of the Sabine River at 18Z. The
frequency of heavy rain bands is likely to increase from
southwestern LA into the upper TX coast through 16Z with hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, although localized potential will exist
for hourly rainfall values in excess of 2 inches as well. Should
these areas of heavy rain overlap with urban areas or other
locations of poor drainage, isolated flash flooding may result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9OWXuz3qXaihPG0god5mKW7dVhTi4z1TLXUwSblZAUgGijbjruayz4H5eY2koKt9M1ZnNeJQGQzxZyDzKptNNcVEIuA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30289408 30279292 30129217 29829170 29489144
29189171 29409270 29349379 29019506 29349563
29889565 30169512

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 14:30:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011430
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-012028-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1165
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1028 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Far Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southeast NY and
Western Long Island

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011428Z - 012028Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms with some
occasional cell-training will pose a concern for some isolated
areas of flash flooding going through the mid-afternoon hours.
This may include some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling
convective tops associated with a corridor of locally heavy
showers and thunderstorms across far northeast PA and adjacent
areas of south-central to southeast NY. The activity is largely
being driven by a corridor of relatively stronger warm air
advection and moisture transport advancing across the northern
Mid-Atlantic region as a warm front attempts to lift off to the
northeast across the region.

Most of convection is somewhat elevated with MUCAPE values of near
1000 J/kg pooled along the front. PWs though are rather high with
values of 1.75 to 2.0 inches in place. The latest RAP analysis
along with VWP data indicates the nose of a 30 to 35+ kt westerly
low-level jet across northern PA which is suggesting some speed
convergence along with the advance of stronger isentropic ascent
to facilitate some of the recent convective trends. Additionally,
there is the southeast advance of a shortwave trough across New
England with nearby divergent flow aloft at least modestly
overlapping the front along with some of the low-level support.

Some fairly decent effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts is in
place and this kinematic environment coupled with the available
moisture and instability may yield some rainfall rates locally as
high as 1.5 inches/hour. The alignment of the convection with the
deeper layer flow suggests some cell-training concerns, and there
may be some highly localized swaths of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall
totals going through the early to mid-afternoon hours as the
overall convective threat shifts down to the southeast.

The latest models are struggling with the current activity, but
the environment along and just south of the warm front may tend to
become more supportive of convection over the next several hours
as boundary layer instability increases. FFG values are locally
rather low across northern NJ and areas close to New York City.
This coupled with the rainfall threat may support an isolated
threat of flash flooding and potentially some urban impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7UWJHpa7zEQpFiwmTN3-xZv8o5kWhf0RcKdAetpmjZK6RU9zdBAufnNOcsnQvmlt1L80Wfio_zJcgKu8gm_lf1337Nc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42167583 42067523 41757421 41167334 40777301
40527327 40547391 40867480 41207543 41647596
41947613

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 17:06:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011706
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-012305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1166
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Far Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011705Z - 012305Z

SUMMARY...T.S Edouard to make landfall this afternoon with urban
flash flooding becoming likely due to very heavy rainfall rates
and storm totals.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-IR satellite imagery along with radar
data shows the center of T.S. Edouard continuing to advance off to
northwest toward the Upper TX coast and far southwest LA. As of
17Z (12PM CDT), the center of Edouard was centered near 29.6N
93.5W or about 30 miles southeast of Port Arthur, TX. The storm
has been gaining some additional convective organization over the
last several hours with an expansion of colder convective tops
associated with a relatively small CDO. However, radar shows the
expansion of stronger convective banding especially around the
southwest flank of the circulation center, and this is where the
heaviest rainfall rates are currently occurring.

Edouard will be making a landfall somewhere near the TX/LA border
this afternoon, and this will bring inner core convection and
related banding into the Upper TX coast and portions of far
southwest LA. MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg and PWs of 2.25 to 2.5
inches will combine with strong low-level convergence and related
moisture transport to yield very heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
inches/hour within at least the stronger convective bands near the
center. This will likely still tend to be around the southwest
flank of the circulation center at least for the next several
hours as the system makes landfall and then edges inland by later
today.

The latest NHC track coupled with the 12Z hires CAMs suggest the
heavy rainfall along the path of Edouard will tend to be east of
the Houston/Galveston area and much more concentrated close to the
greater Beaumont/Port Arthur vicinity. The rather slow propagation
of Edouard off to the northwest should favor very concentrated
areas of high-end rainfall totals. The latest HREF/REFS consensus
would suggest as much as 3 to 6 inches with isolated heavier
amounts close to 9 inches going through early this evening.

Despite dry antecedent conditions, the very high rainfall rates
and overall storm totals are likely to result in areas of flash
flooding, with a particular concern for potentially
significant/dangerous urban flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5vq-R9NPo8i5MOYH86Tb5Wy5SR1czq-tLagChQzohdLgCGP1pCthnmHEad5loJYGKTEOb-41r-68A8zUyR0LATbpETQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30769433 30329353 29619335 29309402 29489481
29949524 30659514

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 19:50:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011944
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-020130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1167
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Southern Utah...Northwest Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011945Z - 020130Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop across portions of Utah into north-northwest Arizona
through the evening bringing 1-2" over areas that remain saturated
from previous days rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Moist southwestern monsoonal airmass remains in place
across the region. RADAR mosaic and GOES-E continue to show
thunderstorms developing across the Utah/Arizona border and
tracking northeastward. GOES water vapor suite depicts broader
large scale closed low approaching northwest California coast,
well out in front is a potent shortwave moving into central
Nevada. Large scale DPVA is providing large scale ascent to
interact with remaining moist unstable air within the lower
Colorado Valley. Precipitable water values are 1.25-1.50, however
this is mostly below 700mb as CIRA LPW depicts dry air moving in
above 700mb helping to steepen lapse rates and increase
instability. High atmospheric moisture combined with strong
instability has risen 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.

Increasing daytime heating and approaching forcing has already
destabilized the atmosphere, with a few thunderstorms already
breaking out across southern UT and northwest AZ. Solid southerly
confluence of 20 kts will continue to support upwind convergence
in the low levels to support backbuilding orientation of the
storms.

Storm motions should remain relatively slow, allowing for
efficient rainfall production of 1-1.5"/hr, over localized areas,
with rainfall totals of 1.5-2", with isolated 2+" possible. The
greatest flash-flooding potential will be across areas where
storms repeatedly track over the same locations over the last few
days, particularly near complex terrain, burn scars, slot canyons,
and dry washes. Isolated to widely scattered incidents of flash
flooding are possible through the evening.

Oudit

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_aLxaFxIdQE4wmJm36GJl6tkxx0sl9sGhvYgzfTqFixo3b6PjP7yKtCKrH2abzIsCixQY4pVGXWDS2gRW1wapgM39U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39731148 38381054 35781132 34681260 35191389
36961409 37701346 38271306 38861259

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 22:01:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 012200
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Much of Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Northern
Delaware...Far Northeast Maryland...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012200Z - 020330Z

SUMMARY...Increasing organized thunderstorms with favorable
orientation for repeating and capability of 1.75"/hr rates may
result in stripes of 2.5-3.5". Localized flash flooding is
considered possible.

DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis denotes a surface low in the
Lower Hudson Valley with a fairly well defined stationary front in
proximity to the NY/PA state line back toward eastern Lake Erie.
South of the front, hot/moist environment of low 90s over mid 70s
Tds supports a very unstable environment across much of PA with
3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE. CIRA LPW denotes a pool of enhanced
moisture that over-topped the larger scale ridge has migrated out
of the Middle Great Lakes into OH/PA from sfc to 700mb, with some
additional mid to upper level moisture arriving across SE PA
resulting in a broad 1.75" total PWat throughout the state.
However, enhanced Atlantic moisture stream from the Delaware
Valley eastward adds a few more tenths to reach 2"+.

Wind profiles show most of the environment is solid
west-northwesterly or northwesterly through depth to support a
unidirectional steering flow to support the potential for
repeating cells. Forcing for initial development was going to be
the greatest factor toward overall coverage, but with some
strengthening of the surface flow and northerly winds sharpening
the surface front along the PA/NY line; scattered cells have
broken out across north-central to northeast PA. Flow aloft is
strong and with effective bulk shear to 40-50kts, organized
rotation to the cells will allow for further localized moisture
flux convergence enhancing rainfall rates/capability as the
updrafts/downdrafts broaden with time. This will allow for
1.5-1.75"/hr rates with an occasional uptick to 2" with best
supercell elements. Given the orientation of the frontal zone
and fairly unidirectional flow, there is good potential for
repeating cells as coverage increases. As a result stripes of
2.5-3.5" totals are possible. While FFG is 2-2.5"/hr across
central PA, it reduces across the Poconos and Delaware Valley to
less than 2"/hr, but those totals still may reach the 3hr FFG
values even through the middle of the state.

A bit less certain, but strengthening mid-level direct circulation
aloft is suggestive of stationary front across Long Island and off
of southern New England is forecast to sharpen and drop southwest
as a 'back-door' front this evening. This has yet to fully
manifest but as it is expected, this will further tighten
convergence across LI, NJ and direct cells southward into NE MD, N
DE, S NJ through early overnight period. Enhanced moisture and
mergers suggest additional coverage and intensity could increase
total and potential for flash flooding conditions across the
Mid-Atlantic Coastal region 03z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4-oxZJg6Z778Yi3ypATQTCVJDjGELwShECdFlGv7K3somiGGup_AIIxX5GBlrrrqS-rIDdQ2PEro7DQtui9AxXwyjoI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CLE...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41987999 41987920 41967854 41927657 41447534
41137446 40417394 39787401 39057442 38867514
39917701 40927905 41187959 41598020

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 22:44:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 012244
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-020445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1169
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
643 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Far Southwest Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012245Z - 020445Z

SUMMARY...T.S. Edouard. Additional 3-6" Totals along and west of
track likely to induced flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows T.S. Edouard continues to
strengthen even after landfall with better inner core structure as
well as the development of an outer-band on the eastern hemisphere
across SW LA. GOES-E 10.3um/Visible loops shows overshooting tops
to -75C near the center, with excellent southerly outflow channels
noted in the broadening cirrus canopy Inner core total PWat
values continue to be around 2.5-2.75" and with stronger eastern
and northern inner core winds providing some slight unbalanced WAA
flow increasing convergence along the western inner band where
rain rates of 3-3.5"/hr have been observed for the last few hours.
This is expected to continue for the next few hours as Edouard
wobble northwestward. This places NW Jefferson-Hardin-Polk-SE
Trinity county in greatest risk for an additional 3-6"+ swath,
likely to continue rapid inundation flash flooding.

While the circulation is small/compact and prone to disruption of
the convective cycle with any dry air entrainment, this does not
appear to be plausible for the next 4-6 hrs in this NW motion and
broader inflow regime off the northwest Gulf. However, flow along
the southern side, enhanced or funneled along the Upper TX coast
is helping to broaden the moat on the eastern side of the
circulation and an outer-band is becoming more focused across W
Calcasieu and W Cameron Parish. Broader directional convergence
along this band will support back-building and relative training
across this area with similar 2-3"/hr rates given the strength of
speed and directional convergence. The orientation of the band
relative to the storm's motion through the next 6 hours should
also help to back the band but keep it relatively stationary
likely to result in a secondary maxima of heavy rainfall totals
across those parishes. Spots of 3-5" are expected likely to
maintain flash flooding there as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9lfgtty5P-Uhtnxx2_Jsc7SsOgDMeWeZNpfDvJpLzuRssWA6GUG4HJEw1IIlOOyuE0u4YUaODOg5j4ITho7yhb6wIK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31189490 31159437 30839370 30489332 30059315
29739332 29689380 29569436 30049495 30459516
30879520

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 23:39:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 012339
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1170
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Northeast NEB...Northwest IA...Far
Southwest MN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012340Z - 020500Z

SUMMARY...Expanding cluster of thunderstorms with history of
1"/30min & potential favorable orientation for repeating/training.
Spots of 2-3.5" due to repeating is possible, though high FFG
suggests flash flooding would be isolated/widely scattered and/or
urban in nature.

DISCUSSION...23z surface analysis shows a well defined stationary
front from east to west across N IA to just south of the SDak/NEB
border toward a weaker but strengthening surface low well out near
WY/SD/NEB corner. Weak southerly flow south of the boundary is
convergent to the broad easterly flow north of the boundary, with
further confluence across SW MN into SE SDak at this time. Deep
layer moisture is pooled along and north of the boundary with TPW
values of 1.75-2" resulting in a broad cu field extends along it
from central SDak into MN/N IA under the convective outflow and
broad cirrus shield in the mid to upper-level WAA regime. GOES-E
WV suite also denotes an effective triple point shortwave/vort
center over central SD with warm conveyor out of E NM across W KS
and central NEB toward an expanding convective cluster from Boyd
to Charles Mix county. TPW analysis shows this orthogonal
intersection of moisture streams with deep layer convergence axis
centered on the cluster itself.

South of the front upper 80s/low 90s over low to mid-70s Tds and
modest lapse rates, support a broad area of conditionally unstable
3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE within the warm sector being advected
into the boundary. Continued inflow and a favorable right
entrance ascent pattern to a 70kt speed max over NE SDak, should
help for some upscale growth to the complex. Current RADAR
presentation per KDP suggests large hail remains in the cores of
the cells; however, a few backyard observations noted quick .5"/10
min and 1"/30 min rates as a stronger cell passed. So with
1.75-2"/hr rain rates and a favorable west to east orientation of
the frontal zone and already developed convective cores, some
repeating is probable and may result in a streak of 2-3" totals
with a spot of 3.5" not out of the question.

Hydrologically, the area has been very dry, so intense rates could
initially result in above average run-off, but overall saturation
depth could be needed with higher totals given the FFG values
remain very high. Within the area of concern, hourly FFG values
are mainly 2-2.5"+ while 3hr range toward 2.5-3.5". As such,
exceedance is likely to be isolated to wide spread, posing
possible low-end flash flooding or urban flooding concerns.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Dhix3-sH5Yu1Nam7s-6EqJQyg-UjWNXwTG2yUSJUq3I3YCO4MMJ1jg4KGjBs3k_fGzR8CBz4lioIUeUxrcBR-p94Is$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43869551 43289513 42819524 42549590 42439684
42339786 42379904 42939948 43439920 43659838
43809731

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 00:03:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020003
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-020445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1169...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Corrected for Concerning Line: Flash Flooding Likely

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Far Southwest Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012245Z - 020445Z

SUMMARY...T.S. Edouard. Additional 3-6" Totals along and west of
track likely to induced flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows T.S. Edouard continues to
strengthen even after landfall with better inner core structure as
well as the development of an outer-band on the eastern hemisphere
across SW LA. GOES-E 10.3um/Visible loops shows overshooting tops
to -75C near the center, with excellent southerly outflow channels
noted in the broadening cirrus canopy Inner core total PWat
values continue to be around 2.5-2.75" and with stronger eastern
and northern inner core winds providing some slight unbalanced WAA
flow increasing convergence along the western inner band where
rain rates of 3-3.5"/hr have been observed for the last few hours.
This is expected to continue for the next few hours as Edouard
wobble northwestward. This places NW Jefferson-Hardin-Polk-SE
Trinity county in greatest risk for an additional 3-6"+ swath,
likely to continue rapid inundation flash flooding.

While the circulation is small/compact and prone to disruption of
the convective cycle with any dry air entrainment, this does not
appear to be plausible for the next 4-6 hrs in this NW motion and
broader inflow regime off the northwest Gulf. However, flow along
the southern side, enhanced or funneled along the Upper TX coast
is helping to broaden the moat on the eastern side of the
circulation and an outer-band is becoming more focused across W
Calcasieu and W Cameron Parish. Broader directional convergence
along this band will support back-building and relative training
across this area with similar 2-3"/hr rates given the strength of
speed and directional convergence. The orientation of the band
relative to the storm's motion through the next 6 hours should
also help to back the band but keep it relatively stationary
likely to result in a secondary maxima of heavy rainfall totals
across those parishes. Spots of 3-5" are expected likely to
maintain flash flooding there as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!794KL2pwcBucIJIHI5nlSOLcOyTVvJE1241lmijr6SYYN9eVvdIB3bvuUzJgurMOSmLj_aXZdA_hZlctjTnn3GyT_4g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31189490 31159437 30839370 30489332 30059315
29739332 29689380 29569436 30049495 30459516
30879520

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 03:42:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020341
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-020700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1171
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1141 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...southeastern PA into the DelMarVa Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020339Z - 020700Z

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated flash flooding will continue from
southeastern PA into the DelMarVa Peninsula through about 07Z.
Brief training of 1-2 inches in an hour and isolated totals near 3
inches may occur.

DISCUSSION...0315Z radar and infrared satellite imagery showed
that thunderstorms were continuing to develop across portions of
southeastern PA, near Harrisburg, just to the cool side of a
corresponding outflow boundary that extended from just south of
Georgetown, DE into the northern Chesapeake Bay and northwestward
to near State College, PA. SPC mesoanalysis data from 03Z showed
roughly 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in place along and within about
100 miles of the outflow boundary, although MLCIN was increasing
with surface cooling post sunset. PW values were also notable at
2.0 to 2.2 inches, supportive of high short term rainfall of 0.5
to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes.

Given a similar orientation of the slower moving portion of the
outflow boundary across southeastern PA into the DelMarVa
Peninsula to the mean northwesterly steering flow, isolated
potential for training will remain for a couple of more hours due
to the lingering instability. Within any axes of training, hourly
rainfall rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be possible with
isolated totals up to 3 inches for a reasonable worst-case
scenario. This may translate into isolated flash flooding.
However, increasing inhibition will be a limiting factor for
continued heavy rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6Q7QnWRZ1s4ftmMmvKqc8SodhYn4M-6YEuMyD2jYH5UKRiKkDvJMpcNRQmfM4XFP29ZlvbAF3TDHD1Rbz6sfVNW25-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40717727 40637687 40157627 39497543 38937501
38387493 38037504 37747532 37767575 38317631
38687653 39197662 39907728 40477765

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 05:14:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020514
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-020930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020512Z - 020930Z

SUMMARY...Peak hourly rainfall totals of 2 to 3+ inches are
expected to maintain focused areas of flash flooding along the
track of T.D. Edouard across The Piney Woods region of TX. In
addition, some potential will exist for nocturnal banding to setup
to the south of the circulation, which could also produce high
rain rates and flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...At 05Z, T.D. Edouard was located about 15 miles
southeast of Livingston, TX, moving toward the northwest near 7
kt. Infrared satellite imagery showed a fairly symmetric CDO with
occasional bursts of colder cloud tops, while banding attempted to
organize southeast of the circulation near the Sabine River. Radar
imagery showed a compact presentation with organized spiral
banding extending 10-20 miles outward from the center in all
directions. Over the past 3 hours, radar imagery showed the
heaviest rain had focused to the north of the center, as the
cyclone continues a steady track toward the northwest.

Expectations are for the heaviest rain rates and additional
rainfall totals over the next 4-5 hours to occur just north and
east of the storm track. This would include Polk and Trinity
counties where additional rainfall through 10Z could amount to 3
to 6 inches (locally higher possible).

South of the circulation, the environment remained highly
conducive to heavy rain with precipitable water values ranging
from 2.2 to 2.6 inches and MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg nosing
northward from the Gulf into southeastern TX, just west of the
Sabine River (per SPC mesoanalysis data). The gradient of
instability extended southwestward toward Galveston Bay. A few of
the 00Z hires models have hinted at the possibility of banding
(already present in southeastern TX over Chambers, Jefferson,
Orange and Newton counties), to become better organized and
exhibit slow movement over the next few hours. The environment
will support 15-minute rainfall over 1 inch and the potential for
localized flash flooding south of the circulation (as well as near
the depression's track).

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8OTcb9D0UK_1-bqZ8WnEUqNbOt6EU1iRPJCMLH6RJOOBGAZR-ZbNFhdEki38gYrXuxwzNUMgZRWj2eCyyiYbC_CuUTQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31649459 31239395 30719369 30179367 29719404
29569453 29649507 29899548 30379578 30889588
31349571 31629528

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 09:46:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020945
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-021430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1173
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
544 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX into southwestern/western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020943Z - 021430Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding, some areas locally significant, is
expected to occur due to heavy rainfall associated with T.D.
Edouard this morning across portions of southeastern TX. Slow
northwestward movement of the system will be accompanied by peak
hourly rainfall totals of 2 to 3+ inches.

DISCUSSION...At 09Z, T.D. Edouard was located about 7 miles
northwest of Livingston, TX, moving toward the northwest near 4
kt, a bit slower than 6-12 hours ago. There have been two notable
areas of heavy rain over the past 3 hours, containing areas of
active flash flooding. First, associated with the eastern
"eyewall" of Edouard, were 3-hour rainfall estimates (via MRMS) of
5-7 inches, ending at 09Z, located 10-15 miles east of Livingston
in Polk County. Second, was associated with a slow moving curved
band of heavy rain that has impacted Liberty to Hardin and Tyler
counties with 3-hour rainfall estimates (via MRMS) of 4 to 6
inches. Both of these regions have contained hourly rainfall of 2
to locally over 3 inches per area gauge data.

Edouard continues to appear healthy on infrared satellite imagery
with some of the coldest cloud tops associated with the slow
moving band of heavy rainfall located 40-50 miles southeast of the
center of circulation. As Edouard maintains an average
northwestward motion this morning near 4-5 kt, heavy rain near the
inner core of the system and tied to the convergent inflow band(s)
to the southeast of the center may result in locally significant
flash flood impacts due to hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher). It is unclear how long the curved inflow band(s)
will sustain over its current location relative to the system
center, with at least some disruption to band organization
possible after sunrise as boundary layer heating commences. Some
short term hires models indicate dissipation of the inflow band(s)
to the south/southeast in favor of reformation of a rainband near
the Sabine River by 15Z or so. While these specific details remain
unclear at this point, there remains a heightened risk of flash
flooding across southeastern TX, with locally significant impacts
possible through 14Z-15Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VYVFXriL4LwqqxeqHlfXaJEhKhkAs-O24dmN3OuzHZZwqEKzV5lGT3MIXesRfQ5FnDozC0QgKfqS_RSDqFaMlNMQ9k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31979427 31629361 31139329 30429331 29959354
29749398 29869501 30409576 30979601 31539582
31849528

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 11:19:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 021119
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-021500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1174
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
718 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Northwest PA...Southwest NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021118Z - 021500Z

SUMMARY...A complex of thunderstorms dropping southeastward from
far southern Ontario and crossing Lake Erie will cross into
northwest PA and far southwest NY this morning. Isolated areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cold-topped MCS crossing Lake Erie and advancing southeastward
toward northwest PA and southwest NY. The activity is associated
with a small-scale vort center rounding the top side of the OH
Valley subtropical ridge axis while also interacting with the nose
of a 30+ kt westerly low-level jet across the broader Lower Great
Lakes region.

Moderate to strong instability with MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000
J/kg and a corridor of 250 mb jet divergence around the northeast
flank of the ridge will likely work in tandem with the warm air
advection pattern over the next few hours to sustain the
convective threat at least in the short-term. Given the
instability along with PWs near 1.75 inches, the rainfall rates
will be capable of reaching 1.5 inches/hour.

Some localized repeating cell-activity with the arrival of these
storms into northwest PA and southwest NY may result in some
spotty 1.5 to 2.5 inch totals over the next few hours. FFGs across
these areas are fairly low, and therefore a few isolated areas of
flash flooding will be possible. The low-level jet may weaken a
bit by later this morning to promote a weakening trend in the
convection, but these trends will be closely monitored for
downstream areas of central and northern PA, and southern NY.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Fa5w7S_sD8AhDiR4_JurlZiobt_IgjDDT-k26cRJQSmgn1S4w0QvYC_0CxfcNkOMrNKsbIz_rSLQmzCfOlV9U-geHY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42887992 42637843 42117750 41497740 41017778
40917851 41097935 41358019 41898094 42258102
42718077

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 16:36:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 021456
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-022055-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Texas...Far Western Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021455Z - 022055Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding, some significant to extreme, is expected
to continue due to heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Edouard
across eastern Texas. Lesser impacts are possible across far
western Louisiana. A slow north-northwest storm motion and
training tropical rainbands with hourly rainfall totals of 3+
inches will support this over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The circulation of Edouard continues to look
well-defined on radar with rainbands wrapping around the southern
and eastern side of the circulation as it slowly moves northward
across eastern Texas this morning. IR satellite imagery shows the
maintenance of cold convective cloud tops with temperatures as low
as -65 C, suggesting the maintenance of intense updrafts with the
system and supporting the extreme rainfall rates exceeding locally
3+ inches/hour.

A particularly intense and persistent rainband was in place this
morning across Liberty, Hardin, and Tyler Counties. Rainfall
reports of 10 to 18+ inches of rain have been reported in the area
with reports of extreme flash flooding, inclusive of one Flash
Flood Emergency issuance. Additionally, persistent heavy rainfall
associated with Edouard's inner core and related CDO has been
noted as well with high rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ inches/hour.

The environment around Edouard continues to support heavy to
torrential rainfall with southerly moisture transport from the
Gulf leading to CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/Kg and a surrounding bubble
of anomalous moisture as indicated by PWATS in the 2.0-2.5 inch
range. This continued inflow of energy from the Gulf will continue
to foster development and the maintenance of stronger convection
and some organized banding potential.

Edouard will continue to move slowly north-northwestward across
eastern Texas. The slow storm movement and the radar estimated 3+
inch rainfall rates will maintain the potential for significant
rainfall accumulations and higher-end flash flooding impacts. An
additional 3 to 6 inches or rain with localized 8 inch amounts is
forecast going through 21Z (4PM CDT).

The highest flash flood impacts are expected to be across Liberty,
Hardin, and Tyler Counties where rain continues to fall over
flooded areas. However, some northward expansion of higher end
flooding impacts into downstream counties of Angelina and Saint
Augustine are expected as the heavy rainbands drift northward.

Wilder

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Pao3p7N5a4NVwjZXHpbWlCwyjXVYGO9XLBGG7vmaxV6pbVDanwvZWoMYZGdLTmF6rRKWrdQ_NvRjeaAUuYSfvF9oIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32289502 32239418 31949371 31399337 30219327
29599372 29279487 29659557 30519588 31269612
31869586

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 21:06:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 022106
FFGMPD
TXZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1176
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...East-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022102Z - 030100Z

SUMMARY...The heavy to extreme rainfall on the southern side of
Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to affect portions of
east-central Texas through 8 pm local time, with some instances of
major flooding likely across areas that have already received
torrential downpours today.

DISCUSSION...The circulation of T.D. Edouard remains well intact
based on recent Doppler radar and surface observations. The vast
majority of heavy rainfall associated with this will be in the
southern semicircle of the circulation, most notably with
persistent inflow feeder bands that are showing repeated
convective training. This is likely to continue through 8 pm with
very slow movement of the circulation to the north, and
unidirectional flow in the low to mid levels. Rainfall rates
within these bands have exceeded three inches per hour at times,
and this has led to extensive flooding across the Piney Woods
region.

The latest CAM guidance suite is suggesting the potential for some
additional 3-6 inch totals over the next 4 hours across southern
and eastern portions of the outlook area. Based on current radar
trends, the core of heaviest rainfall this evening will likely be
across portions of San Jaci, Polk, Trinity, and northern Liberty
counties where the inflow band is expected to be the most
persistent, and major flooding is likely for these areas. The CAMs
may be a little overdone with near term rainfall closer to the
main circulation center, with rainfall totals closer to 1-3 inches
through 8 pm. The WoFS seems to have a better depiction based on
ongoing radar trends with the heaviest rainfall away from the
circulation center and mainly associated with the inflow bands to
the south.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ZSaMCKE6Kyn844Q1n2LV_BC2APKldXLTIHBj9sFgs1cySt_fRKCh5QcfqCls2na006NjP031J-SZkg_1r2MN4NO5MA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32029461 31859425 31389405 30989406 30689414
30419435 30179473 30139525 30229568 30559606
30749617 30999621 31199618 31449605 31629585
31729565 31919530 32009495

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 22:39:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 022239
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Western NY...West-Central PA...Eastern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022237Z - 030400Z

Summary...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected this evening. High rainfall rates in combination with
relatively saturated soils from earlier rainfall may lead to some
instances of flooding through midnight local time.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and satellite imagery
indicate a recent increase in heavy convection across portions of
western PA and into western New York. A more organized line of
strong thunderstorms is approaching from Ontario and is forecast
to reach northwestern New York by 8 pm. Training convective
elements have been noted within this line of storms with rates in
excess of an inch per hour, and the convection ahead of the line
is serving to increase soil moisture and thus make the region more
susceptible to flooding.

Recent surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary stretched from north to south across the outlook area,
marking the delineation of a strong mixed layer CAPE gradient and
some weak surface wind convergence. There is also some modest
right entrance upper level jet dynamics at work ahead of the
synoptic scale cold front to the west, thus aiding broader scale
ascent across the region.

The latest CAMS have a relatively strong signal for some QPF
swaths on the order of 2 to 4 inches from west-central PA into
central NY through the evening hours. In addition, both HREF and
RRFS both have decent probabilities of 3 and 6-hourly flash flood
guidance exceedance because of the recent heavy rainfall earlier
today. Therefore, some instances of flooding will be possible
through midnight local time.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9gOmxjsBaR6rtBAVSdbBXst5GrugY6MPLv67MoRB4y9uXzAhkL4-l3E50YDokIlTC-Z550Rrjvgx4PVDaIiwEnceIVU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43687634 43617586 43437541 43007497 42567478
42007492 41367607 40437608 39927633 39737724
39717829 39857886 40247968 41108094 41888075
42617928 43317910 43437815 43467811 43487756
43557716 43667687

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 00:57:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 030057
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...East-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030055Z - 030600Z

SUMMARY...The very heavy rainfall on the southern side of Tropical
Depression Edouard will continue to affect portions of
east-central Texas through 1 am local time, with major flooding
expected across areas that have already received torrential
downpours over the past 24 hours.

DISCUSSION...The circulation of T.D. Edouard remains well intact
based on recent Doppler radar and surface observations. The vast
majority of heavy rainfall associated with this will be with the
southern inflow band that is currently situated about 50 miles
north of the Interstate 10 corridor. This is likely to continue
through 1 am with very slow movement of the circulation to the
north, with some of these heavier cells moving over areas that
have already received in excess of a foot of rainfall with this
event. Rainfall rates within these bands have exceeded three
inches per hour at times, and this has led to extensive flooding
across the Piney Woods region with numerous road closures.

There is some disparity in the latest CAM guidance with the
expected QPF over the next several hours. The ARW, HRRR, Gem
Regional, and the global model guidance indicates a pronounced
secondary maxima of heavy rainfall close to the actual center of
the depression later tonight. However, the RRFS and recent WoFS
runs seem to have a better depiction based on current radar trends
with the heaviest rainfall well away from the circulation center
and mainly associated with the inflow bands to the south, and
moderate rainfall closer to the center.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VbGt4xP1GhH6tcDuuTJg4qWM_Bs6q69xaFFRPn1EZJRe5yeWpmCNb4fgHY9aURxzyqRnLvTvb4Q4eWr5z5e6otogXc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32709481 32429409 31939366 31389355 30549362
30059407 29879483 29819537 29839607 29889681
30039730 30289745 30639726 30789693 30759655
30739593 30819563 30989543 31179532 31429534
31719558 32009588 32469567

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 03:49:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 030345
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-030900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Pennsylvania...Far Southwest New York...Northern
& Western New Jersey...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030345Z - 030900Z

SUMMARY...Training cells continuing to pose localized flash
flooding risk for the next few hours. Hourly rates of 1.5-2"
should reduce with time and stripes of additional 2-3" totals may
result in new incidents of flash flooding or prolong/reaggrivate
ongoing areas.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave crossing S NY/N PA current is at the far
southeast edge of the main longwave trough that dominates much of
eastern Canada and is followed by a slight tightening of the mid
to upper level west-northwesterly flow helping to promote a
favorable training/repeating environment through the remainder of
the night. Regional RADAR mosaic notes the wave well with arched
leading convective line across the Catskills into the Poconos
starting to wane a bit due to limited remaining unstable air
across the region. However, 10.3um EIR and RADAR shows the
trailing line across the Southern Poconos as well as a broader
cluster south across Union to Clinton county that remain oriented
to the mean steering flow prolong residency of moderate to heavy
rainfall. Additionally, VWP shows surface to 925mb southwesterly
flow fairly orthogonal to the convective line but has rapidly
veered more westerly much like flow upstream for the remaining
clusters across Lake Erie into NW PA/SW NY.

RAP analysis shows remaining uncapped/weakly capped region of
MLCAPE resides across SW PA into central PA but the window appears
to be closing over the next few hours as capping builds and flow
further veers parallel to the active convective cores. Still, a
few hours of 20-30kts of 1.75-2" total PWAT advection should
support rates of 1.5-2"/hr and given length of the clusters could
be long enough even with strong steering flow to result in WNW to
ESE streaks of additional 2-3" totals. Broad areas of remaining
100-300 cfs/sqmi noted in MRMS FLASH could still intersected and
reaggravate flash flooding or like the leading cluster produce
200-500 cfs/sqmi to induce new incidents of flash flooding through
SE PA.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8wAZDcVk35wMTODWvXhqRAXB3aH7AiC6I7goJR8rDHjPbpS818jSzBYRU_uYIRfH8C-Lr_NFJ-xwa1g_KcPGdVUo4Jw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...OKX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42527926 42207706 41657511 40927413 39967472
39747615 40097782 40467864 40877935 41458018
42018034

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 03:54:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 030345
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-030900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Pennsylvania...Far Southwest New York...Northern
& Western New Jersey...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030345Z - 030900Z

SUMMARY...Training cells continuing to pose localized flash
flooding risk for the next few hours. Hourly rates of 1.5-2"
should reduce with time and stripes of additional 2-3" totals may
result in new incidents of flash flooding or prolong/reaggrivate
ongoing areas.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave crossing S NY/N PA current is at the far
southeast edge of the main longwave trough that dominates much of
eastern Canada and is followed by a slight tightening of the mid
to upper level west-northwesterly flow helping to promote a
favorable training/repeating environment through the remainder of
the night. Regional RADAR mosaic notes the wave well with arched
leading convective line across the Catskills into the Poconos
starting to wane a bit due to limited remaining unstable air
across the region. However, 10.3um EIR and RADAR shows the
trailing line across the Southern Poconos as well as a broader
cluster south across Union to Clinton county that remain oriented
to the mean steering flow prolong residency of moderate to heavy
rainfall. Additionally, VWP shows surface to 925mb southwesterly
flow fairly orthogonal to the convective line but has rapidly
veered more westerly much like flow upstream for the remaining
clusters across Lake Erie into NW PA/SW NY.

RAP analysis shows remaining uncapped/weakly capped region of
MLCAPE resides across SW PA into central PA but the window appears
to be closing over the next few hours as capping builds and flow
further veers parallel to the active convective cores. Still, a
few hours of 20-30kts of 1.75-2" total PWAT advection should
support rates of 1.5-2"/hr and given length of the clusters could
be long enough even with strong steering flow to result in WNW to
ESE streaks of additional 2-3" totals. Broad areas of remaining
100-300 cfs/sqmi noted in MRMS FLASH could still intersected and
reaggravate flash flooding or like the leading cluster produce
200-500 cfs/sqmi to induce new incidents of flash flooding through
SE PA.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8wAZDcVk35wMTODWvXhqRAXB3aH7AiC6I7goJR8rDHjPbpS818jSzBYRU_uYIRfH8C-Lr_NFJ-xwa1g_KcPGdVUo4Jw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...OKX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42527926 42207706 41657511 40927413 39967472
39747615 40097782 40467864 40877935 41458018
42018034

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 05:56:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 030556
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1180
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...North Texas to Western Piney Woods of Eastern
Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030600Z - 031130Z

SUMMARY...T.D. Edouard. Small remaining clusters still capable of
2-3"/hr rates and localized 3-5" totals, but much more focused and
scattered than earlier today. Localized flash flooding remains
possible through early morning.

DISCUSSION...05z surface analysis suggests the surface low has
fully opened into a broader cyclonic flow with no northerly flow
instead shifting more east to west across north Texas into the Big
Country. However, VWP along with 3.9 SWIR suggests a closed wave
remains between 850-700mb in the vicinity of S Kaufman county
still sliding west-northwest toward Dallas-Fort Worth Metro;
though with an elongation toward the southeast and confluent flow
still remaining across East Texas, while a surge of Western Gulf
low-level moisture can be seen in SWIR as well as increase in
surface Tds into the mid to upper 70s across SE TX.

As such, a pool of unstable air remains across the southeast
quadrant of the remaining circulation and with MLCAPE nose of 1000
J/kg trying to reach Trinity and Angelina counties with slow
steady increase toward early morning. RAP analysis combined with
the VWP also suggests solid 850-700mb deep moisture convergence
from the center to the southeast and the approaching Gulf moisture
surge. CIRA Layer Vapor Transport (LVT) shows 60 to 70 kg/m/s
flux to the area with 2.25-2.4" total PWat it the area. While
CAPE is still limited to about 500-750 J/kg currently, the
convergence suggests a few smaller core updrafts are likely to
cycle over the coming hours; similar to the current RADAR/10.3um
EIR trends of small updrafts across E Henderson to N Trinity/S
Cherokee county. Rates of 2-2.5" are possible with occasional
uptick to 3"/hr still possible (HREF 20-25% for 3"/hr in Henderson
to Trinity county).

The convergence axis is not expected to shift very much, so spotty
totals of 3-5" remain possible though if near zero shift of the
axis occurs, this could locally be higher, but confidence in that
precision is, of course, low but not impossible. Flash flooding
is considered possible as the main area of concern is generally
north or on the northeastern fringe of the area most affected by
extreme rainfall today. However, any small deviation to the
southeast into Polk/Angelina county would certainly result in
reaggrivation of flash flooding given FFG reduced to below 1-1.5"
for any time period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6pVfAiUcUkw4N0ZuqJrLe8qS59lTJlcMt1wFpkqb_QUXWISUU4dYdNGjzOazOPS2HLTLe-tbUPVUdQrPjP4gxwMfTa4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33009609 32839538 32479491 31969447 31329440
30999480 31029520 31549605 32249658 32779662

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 11:50:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031150
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
749 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031149Z - 031745Z

SUMMARY...Additional heavy rainfall associated with the remnants
of Edouard will continue to impact areas of eastern TX through
midday. Areas of flash flooding will be likely over the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite
imagery shows the mid-level vort center associated with Edouard's
remnants gradually drifting north-northwestward across eastern TX
and toward the Red River Valley of the South. Relatively
shallow/warm-topped convection is noted around the southern and
eastern flanks of the vort center, and this is being aided by the
convergent nose of a very moist and rather unstable 30 kt
low-level jet.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are noted around the southern
flank of the vort center, and the PWs remain quite high with
values near 2.25 inches. This coupled with the rather shallow
warm-topped nature of the convection should favor extremely
efficient rainfall processes for high rainfall rates capable of
reaching 2.5 inches/hour.

The latest hires CAMs support some additional cell-training
concerns and slow cell-motions that will foster some additional
localized 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals going through midday. FFG
values are higher farther north in closer proximity to the vort
center, but with such high rainfall rates and the aforementioned
cell-training concerns, there will be a general likelihood for
more areas of flash flooding over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5wNlTM64EIVOAeJTrKxPPn2Uu0hPMUoGrx1Dx6375snxn4eq23sGq09LGQNAmIzZ3sFP2fDjire-Ksk6hqNCV9g7rRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33339592 32869491 32029444 30889430 30069464
29759555 29989618 30559666 31029694 31589720
32249732 33059694

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 12:34:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031233
FFGMPD
NDZ000-031800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Northern ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031232Z - 031800Z

SUMMARY...A couple of clusters of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms with some localized cell-training concerns may
maintain a threat for isolated flash flooding across areas of
northern ND.

DISCUSSION...An ejecting shortwave trough across the far northern
Plains coupled with deeper layer warm air advection and the nose
of elevated instability well ahead of a frontal system will
continue to fosters at least a couple of clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms across mainly areas of northern ND going through
early this afternoon.

MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg along with PWs of 1.3 to 1.4
inches will help facilitate rainfall rates as high as 1.5 to 2
inches/hour with the stronger storms. There is a belt of fairly
strong shear dropping east-southeast across central and northern
ND with effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts. This coupled
with the upper-level jet dynamics and warm air advection should
help maintain the overall convective footprint/organization going
through at least midday, with a downstream advance of convection
expected across much of northern ND.

Some localized cell-training will continue to be possible, and
this may foster some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals. This
may foster some FFG exceedance and concerns for isolated areas of
flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-sNDCb5X3x7XepHP57fWWKJtEUNcvWpYrX32fZdll3msLU8v19-2svgNXESBHYKpPBzr7lxG7xiICU0MbbkFvyRAvzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48979801 48539766 48099889 47730087 47840176
48280196 48630140 48959999

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 15:19:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031519
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-WIZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern WI...Portions of Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031517Z - 032115Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
locally high rainfall rates may drive some uptick in the threat
for mainly isolated and urban areas of flash flooding over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery and radar data shows some
broadening of the convective footprint across areas of the
Midwest, including areas of central and eastern WI through
portions of Lower MI. Cooling cloud top temperatures are noted as
a shortwave impulse begins to round the top side of subtropical
ridge over the OH Valley.

This shortwave energy will be increasing the warm advection
pattern across the region while interacting with a well-defined
and quasi-stationary synoptic front. Additionally, a strengthening
instability gradient is expected over the next several hours with
the diurnal heating cycle, and this will further help facilitate
an expanding axis of convection in close proximity to the front
and in an elevated fashion to the northeast of it.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are noted in close proximity to
the axis of ongoing elevated convection, and propagation vectors
suggest much of the convection should translate down to the
east-southeast going through the early to mid-afternoon hours.
Some cell-training concerns will be possible in time, especially
across Lower MI as the activity over central and eastern WI
advances downstream and expands in coverage.

Rainfall rates are expected to be as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger storms, and the cell-training concerns will
support potential for highly localized swaths of 2 to 4 inches.
Some 12Z CAM solutions suggest this potential, but overall the FFG
exceedance probabilities are quite modest given the antecedent
conditions which are generally rather dry for most of the area.

Therefore, the expectation is that there may be enough rainfall to
foster a highly isolated and mainly urban flash flooding threat
over the next several hours as these showers and thunderstorms
advance off to the east-southeast.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!54ZVDO6iuq6ChySFsS2payVkuhAL3JQB8kFNIr5c0JdcU32jEiVegIY1m24PiI1Rg3568pQfmF8ZscKA6zzLuj10bus$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...CLE...DTX...GRB...GRR...IWX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45428817 45218634 44398409 43558274 42518225
41698284 41768457 42288690 42968849 43738930
44838920

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 17:07:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031707
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-032305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1184
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TX...Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031705Z - 032305Z

SUMMARY...Additional scattered areas of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms associated with the tropical remnants of Edouard
will continue to impact areas of eastern TX and also some parts of
southwest LA through late this afternoon. Scattered additional
areas of flash flooding will remain possible.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery along
with radar shows generally broken and disorganized areas of
showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact portions of eastern
TX, with some recent convection seen developing in a weakly banded
fashion near the TX/LA border and adjacent areas of southwest LA.

Cloud top temperatures are generally warming near the core of what
is left of any central convection associated with Edouard's
mid-level vort energy which is becoming increasingly stretched
from near the Red River Valley of the South down across eastern
TX. Instability across areas of eastern TX are also rather modest
due to cloud cover, a general weakening of the earlier low-level
jet energy, and the overall process of convective overturning.

However, around the periphery of the cloud cover and remaining
active convection, some stronger instability gradients are setting
up due to the differential heating gradients. These gradients are
likely to facilitate new convective development this afternoon
which will include areas of southeast TX and southwest LA, and
also areas farther west back into the TX Triangle region.

MUCAPE values along some of these gradients are on the order of
1500 to 2500 J/kg. This coupled with the high PW environment
(values locally around 2.25 inches) will continue to support some
potential for rainfall rates to reach as high as 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour.

The latest 12Z HREF/REFS consensus, HRRR guidance, and the
experimental WoFS suggest much less convective organization to the
heavy rainfall threat going through this afternoon hours as
Edouard's energy continues to lose its identity. However,
sufficient redevelopment of convection is expected this afternoon
such that some additional totals of 2 to 4+ inches will be
possible. This will promote a threat for additional scattered
areas of flash flooding, and especially if any of these rains can
overlap with areas that saw extremely heavy rain over the last 48
hours in southeast TX.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4S2Z1i0qG4r9oIQxFFbcywDrCEi3GaCSn5xQ1QBzM1JigyokJi7mibL8GdM-rkDodn046Pg9x7RHqoalL3ND1bLLlb0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32539604 31899539 31649486 31519423 31259329
30729257 30159220 29509222 29499309 29389424
28829513 28489570 28699656 29789706 30239783
30849837 31899805 32519711

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 18:08:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031807
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-040005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast AZ & western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031805Z - 040005Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and
increase in coverage over the next several hours. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" could lead to widely scattered to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Skies are mostly sunny across much of the region,
which some cumuli developing within a moist airmass. Moisture
across southern AZ has been helped by Hurricane Marie to the
southwest of Baja California. ML CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg exists
across portions of AZ, while a broader area of MU CAPE in spots
beyond 2000 J/kg exists across the southeast half of AZ and
southwest NM. Effective bulk shear is approaching 25 kts.
Difluence aloft is sponsored by an upper level shortwave moving
into southern NV. The mid-level capping inversion is weak at 700
hPa temperatures are generally 12C or cooler.

The guidance shows an uptick in coverage and amounts across
portions of the southeast half of AZ and western NM. With the
upper disturbance entering NV, effective bulk shear could also
increase somewhat. Given the ingredients in place, hourly amounts
to 2" are possible where cells stall/backbuild, have short periods
of training, or merge. This would be problematic in urban areas,
burn scars, slot/box canyons, dry washes/arroyos. Occurrences of
flash flooding are expected to be widely scattered to scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!72SvLaH38-UTxjUW6BbSgpJwKsict8eUDPEAS9_ZBYDy8t07dHEuazrrrLOTkpjNIYysMxJ3Oki6Cua-2P9amUfN6Dw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36850750 34550664 31310740 31160930 31621251
33151140 34821118

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 18:18:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031817
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Northeast ND...Northern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031816Z - 040015Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be advancing across
portions of northeast ND and northern MN going through the
mid-afternoon hours. Locally high rainfall rates and some
occasional cell-training concerns will support a threat for
isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...An ejecting shortwave trough continues to support a
long-lived MCS that is moving into northeast ND. GOES-E IR
satellite imagery still shows a sustainable corridor of cold
convective tops advancing downstream, and the combination of
shortwave dynamics along with proximity of a strong elevated
instability gradient and broader warm air advection should tend to
sustain the ongoing convective mass going through the afternoon
hours.

MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg along with PWs of 1.5 to 1.7
inches will work in tandem with rather strong kinematics (40 to
50+ kts) to favor convective organization and some rainfall rates
capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
convective cores.

Some localized cell-training will continue to be possible given
alignment of the activity with the deeper layer steering flow, and
this may foster some additional localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals as the convection impacts northeast ND and adjacent
downstream areas of northern MN. A consensus of the 12Z HREF/REFS
guidance does generally support this. Some isolated and mainly
urban flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hp6pEBX6gmgaVnwnXa0pk9BM19GaNDv7kvfDyILCiwD0nwS98g_68oWbt5WC1-xPu_6Bo2s9lZW3uEuK2NdK0uB7yk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48989677 48889545 48569415 47949287 47299253
46689287 46449415 46669587 47109739 47749857
48279905 48679886 48939802

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 18:57:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031856
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-040053-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...in and near eastern OH, western PA, & northern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031853Z - 040053Z

Summary...Local convective growth along with incoming thunderstorm
activity arriving from southern MI/Lake Erie could lead to hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4". Occurrences of
flash flooding could be widely scattered through 01z.

Discussion...An outflow boundary from earlier convection is
helping to erode CIN across northern WV, central OH, and northwest
VA sparking some new convective growth. Thunderstorms upstream
across the southern portion of MI's Mitt and Lake Erie are moving
towards northeast OH. Precipitable water values are 1.5-2". ML
CAPE is 2000-3000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 35-45 kts, which
should organize convection.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that locally grown convection
along with upstream convection could merge into a complex that
grows upscale later this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
with local totals to 4" are possible where the organized
thunderstorm complex tracks. These amounts would exceed the three
hourly flash flood guidance, which are modest, roughly in the 2"/3
hour range. Occurrences of flash flooding due to mesocyclone
formation, cell training, and cell mergers should be widely
scattered through 01z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5_lw0naz2-1ROfVHR5woVDqcuxlUCMwAkM3TZJwUyPyuFKdNbee7a0GlvobRSZjIKLGCX-YLelh_uGoMifTPEd6tP_k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42398167 41107915 39947834 38067863 39048139
40088266 41578348 42308280

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 23:06:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032306
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-040504-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
705 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast AZ & western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032304Z - 040504Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms capable of flash flooding are
possible through 05z, particularly near the southern AZ/NM border.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" could lead to widely scattered
occurrences of flash flooding into tonight.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have grown in coverage
across western NM and southeast AZ this afternoon within a region
of 700 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 1.75-2" in
the lower deserts and closer to an inch at elevation. ML CAPE is
broadly 500-1500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 25 kts lies near
the NM/AZ border which has led to some level of organization.

The guidance suggests that cell coverage is about to peak for the
day, with activity across southeast AZ most likely to hang on
towards 05z with thunderstorms showing some eastward drift into
southwest NM with time. Given the ingredients in place and for as
long as cell coverage is sufficient, hourly amounts to 2" are
possible where cells stall/backbuild, have short periods of
training, or merge. This would be problematic in urban areas,
burn scars, slot/box canyons, dry washes/arroyos. Occurrences of
flash flooding are expected to be widely scattered in general, but
slowly drop off with time into tonight/towards 05z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4co6W51dw4W4Y4jGesMAcm6rg2902uePn4fqfoOBO7wtV2-kiN8ujXImU0KOTrjVsP13PVHhYv6KWI_BaDYOvUfL5Oc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37160731 37130616 35630597 33390625 31180763
30961145 31821287 34251130 36040935

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 23:24:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032323
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-040322-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...western NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032322Z - 040322Z

Summary...A training band is attempting to set up near Buffalo.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are trying to connect/train
in a linear orientation very near Buffalo NY not far from a
moisture and instability gradient. Precipitable water values of
~1.75" lie here. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts. ML CAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg exists in the area.

There is a signal in the guidance for a 3-4 hour heavy rain
possibility in this region, which appears to be beginning. Hourly
rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible in places
that manage to get a couple hours of training or where
mesocyclones manage to form. Flash flood guidance values are on
the low end due to recent rains, so flash flooding is considered
possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!64d0Z6F0CYa2p6j73OnTwnKsd9HDz9CSBewdv6FZiVxAdpGCnhHlNywhz6q0KJigx8w3aRYtAP4agGDZPfX7y0aWYJM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43297871 43047683 42627549 41917505 41857641
43107976

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 23:57:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032357
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-040555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...in and near WV & portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032355Z - 040555Z

Summary...A couple rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding in and around WV & portions of the Mid-Atlantic States
over the next several hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
additional local totals to 4" are possible through at least 05z.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have at times tried to
align across southwest PA as of late, with the initial convection
carving a new instability gradient across the region for
convection back across far eastern OH to follow. Precipitable
water values are approaching 2". Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts.
With CIN beginning to develop, MU CAPE is ~3000 J/kg.

MUCIN that developed in the wake of morning convection across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic States has been stubborn/persistent
today and appeared to have set up a relative wall that organized
convection has had trouble passing. This is seen in the 18z HREF
guidance, though the 12z REFS shows a different evolution
entirely. A zone of 850 hPa confluence is forecast to shift south
to the Nation's Capital over the next several hours, which could
guidance any remaining activity in that direction. While the 12z
REFS is missing the boat on the heavy rainfall in western NY at
the present time, a mesocyclone in southwest PA is attempting to
break through the MUCIN wall and edge towards the Mason-Dixon
Line. A compromise of sorts was used to account for the above.
Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local totals to 4" are
possible for as long as organized convection can persist, another
concept which the mesoscale guidance cannot agree. Have used a
06z horizon which is closer to the 18z HREF timing of convective
waning. There is more uncertainty than usual in this
forecast/future convective expectations.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8CQv8oBMq0gUR0DAneyn7eJb3AdERZaklTg4IYaTcWx7r3NplRQxB25_okvONHgoU8zAPzBu5blbjz3ab02RR9ovMqM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41257964 40207709 39247615 38487727 38138105
39548196 40608120

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 01:38:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040138
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-040737-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040137Z - 040737Z

Summary...New thunderstorm activity has recently formed which has
the potential to grow upscale and track east-southeast with time.
Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible,
which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Isolated to widely scattered convection is forming
near an ML CAPE gradient across central MN and the western UP of
MI, despite a great deal of CIN remaining across the region.
Precipitable water values are ~2". Effective bulk shear of ~50
kts exists regionally. MU CAPE of 1500-4000 J/kg exists near the
new thunderstorm activity.

The mesoscale guidance shows a wide variety of solutions...used
the 18z hi-res NAM which appears to show a more realistic
depiction of what's upcoming. Thunderstorms are expected to grow
in scale and could train/backbuild while elevated over a surface
front in a region of 850 hPa confluence/convergence. The 850 hPa
inflow veers and increases with time, implying backbuilding and
eventual forward propagation would occur once a cold pool develops
in or near an east-west surface trough. Given the parameters
available, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are
possible. This could lead to flash flooding, particularly over
urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Rpge64qydJzKFe_hdg_MR1FY5JK2qVXwj4xyujtSzlTuMbM6uqDGNTf2TKO9aitl1i7M8PMV-LMTAYZcTtQhnMbN34$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...FGF...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46989242 46679015 46058882 45008725 44238697
43098806 43949111 45509473 46229567 46499398

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 02:53:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040251
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern Upstate NY & NYC/Long Island...Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southwest CT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040250Z - 040830Z

SUMMARY...Narrow band of repeating cells through saturated areas
pose possible incidents of localized flash flooding even with
scattered 1-3" totals overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a embedded shortwave feature
across northwest PA sliding eastward though deeper unidirectional
WNW flow regime. This wave is supported by right entrance to 90kt
speed max over central upstate NY aiding vertical ascent pattern
along the convergent northern rotor of the shortwave feature. In
the low to mid-levels, RAP continues to show a weakly buoyant
environment remains in place along the NY/PA border extending into
the lower Hudson Valley with 500-1000 J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE
along and downstream of the mid-level forcing.

While the forcing and buoyancy are not particularly strong, there
remains modest elevated moisture flux convergence along a
tightening moisture gradient (denoted in PWat field). Pool of
1.75" across SW upstate NY into northern PA remains in proximity
to ascent axis though values drop off to below 1.3" across the
Mohawk Valley through northeast CT. So influx from the south and
southeast should provide capability for efficient rainfall
production due to flux convergence, though updrafts should be
narrow. Still, in strong WNW flow regime with 20-25kts of
850-700mb flow from the west, should allow for back-building or
upstream regeneration even as new development breaks out
downstream toward the Poconos/Catskills over the next few hours
(and further downstream into the Lower Hudson Valley). Rates to
1.5"/hr are possible though that coverage in intersection of
rainfoot across multiple upper reaches of watersheds needed for
broader flash flooding may be more limited.

The greater concern is that efficient warm cloud processes will
fall over areas recently compromised with multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall saturating the upper soil profiles as much of the area
along and south of the NY/PA line into SE NY are running well
above normal in the 90th to 99th percentiles around 65-80% ratios.
As such, FFG values are significantly reduced to less than 1"/hr
across a large portion of the area of concern with some spots
below .5"/hr. Three to six hour FFG are not much better with
broad areas below 1.5". Given narrow streaks of 1-3" and
scattered/small areal coverage confidence in flash flooding
conditions suggest possible incidents more than high/likely
confidence.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5pQ4KGTsimJNZIxTGAOh5MLU38zPywOekAH5EWQabaor_MKTYmHqhsFMnSht2vvKK8WzGtV7-Udg23duA1aUKOpN63A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42897689 42307505 41517314 41187228 40907229
40637301 40457406 41057574 41727733 42167810
42497844 42847817

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 06:38:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040638
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-041200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1193
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Wisconsin...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040645Z - 041200Z

SUMMARY...Increasing isentropic convection within
repeating/training profile suggests with ample moisture and rates
up to 2"/hr supports and axis of 2-4" totals through early
morning. Incidents of flash flooding becoming increasingly
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR depict two areas of
increasing convection across the Upper Great Lakes. The further
north across NE MN with a secondary WAA wing across W U.P of MI
with a broadening cluster of isentropically induced, expanding
clusters across central WI into SE WI. CIRA LPW/LVT along with
VWP shows the main core of the warm conveyor belt (eastern branch)
is over-topping the ridge and cyclonically curving, further
enhancing moisture convergence generally at a lower altitude about
850-900mb. The former is driven by proximity to stronger dPVA
from advancing shortwave trough over N MN with eastward expansion
around 700-750mb where the western branch of the developing TROWAL
has sufficient backed mid level flow for sufficient convergence
for increasing but slightly weaker WAA development.

Overall, the WCB is streaming along and northwest of the highest
instability axis which resides through the Mississippi River
Valley with nearly 4000 J/kg of CAPE near Lacrosse and southward,
though steady gradient of 1000-1500 J/kg extends as far northeast
into the SW portions of the U.P. denoting the weaker, more
scattered nature compared to those downstream in central and
southeast WI where overshooting tops are cooling below -70C. CIRA
LVT shows core of WCB is also T-boned across central WI with over
75-100 kg/m/s of flux through 850-700mb resulting in enhanced TPW
over 2". Given flow is 20-30kts convergence through 850-700mb and
strong updrafts will support 2"/hr rates with strongest cores
occasionally reaching 2.5".

Deep layer steering quickly veers out of the NW to support a
general NW to SE environment for repeating training, though mean
flow is strong, the effective bulk shear through depth solid
Supercell composites in lower double digits denote rotating
updraft capability reducing forward speed, increasing residency
time for the elevated cores. However, this rotation will help
some right turning deflection for ideal repeating/training
eventually reaching southeast WI and potentially intersecting more
urban locations that currently. As such streaks of 2-4" totals
are becoming increasingly possible. FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and
<3"/3hrs suggest scattered incidents of flash flooding are
becoming increasingly possible through the early morning hours.

Upstream, the forward propagating complex and warm advective 700mb
wing will continue to quickly advance into NW WI. GOES-E SWIR
suggests there are a few cells trying to develop along the NW to
SE axis between the complexes at lower elevations (and therefore
further southwest). Intense rates will accompany, but forward
speeds will be higher along with better southeasterly inflow to
further increase forward propagation. Combine this with naturally
higher FFG values (2-2.5"/hr & 3-4"/3hrs) across the Northwoods of
N WI and SW UP of MI and flash flooding is not as likely as
further downstream across central and SE WI. Still, this complex
is likely to begin to race southeast toward areas already affected
by leading clusters and may result in reaggrivation of any ongoing
flooding conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!68xFwCtBQBEP2zxQx6nrTb0FdMwLGaYu78PoZkpJqicj3x3v4O2kFKiFIUus469MveocjL3h6LmJyo9Q6rO0AtFA010$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46779245 46219067 45888972 45108773 44698720
43358768 42758768 42658826 43128896 44159011
45529186 46299266

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 09:51:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040951
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-041500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan...Northwest Ohio...Ext.
Northeast Indiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040950Z - 041500Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convection within favorable training/repeating
environment pose localized 2-3.5" totals and possible incident(s)
of flash flooding through morning.

DISCUSSION...09z surface analysis depicts an ill/broadly defined
stationary front across northern Ohio into far SW MI before
crossing Lower Lake Michigan into southern WI. Weak surface
southerly flow with enhanced low 70s Tds is providing convergence
along the stationary front, though quick veering of flow from 925
to 850mb more due westerly is only obliquely isentropically
ascending through the front. GOES-E WV suite and AMVs denote an
enhanced outflow channel perhaps influenced/aided by the upstream
convective complex over E WI, to provide some broadening
divergence aloft to accompany the weak surface convergence. RAP
analysis also notes, weakening CINH to below 10-20 J/kg across the
frontal zone from Lower MI into N WV but also aligned with
gradient of conditionally unstable air with up to 1250 J/kg of
CAPE available.

GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR denote these elements have been
sufficient for convective initiation with overshooting tops over
the cirrus cooling below -65C over Eaton/Jackson County with newer
cells downstream in northeast OH. Upstream elevated WAA
convection from the larger complex is starting to progress across
the Lake toward SW MI and like the new development is favorably
oriented to deep layer steering flow which should promote a
repeating/training environment. Effective bulk shear of 25-35kts
should further support cell organization with perhaps some weak
rotation to slow southeastward propagation increasing residency.

Pooled moisture through depth provides ample moisture and with
weakly veered/convergent 925-850mb flow at 20-25kts, provides
ample flux for efficient rainfall production and rates of
1.5-1.75"/hr. Hydrologically, southern MI is very sandy and
naturally high FFG values will require the repeating and or slowed
forward propagation to result in 2-3.5" totals in 3hrs; though
this does decrease toward SE MI and into northern OH where hourly
FFG values go from 2.5" in MI and less than 1.5" in SE MI/NW OH
(3hr over 3" and less than 2" respectively). As such, flash
flooding may be more isolated to widely scattered and more likely
in few urban locations in proximity to the frontal boundary. As
such, flash flooding is concerned possible through daybreak across
the area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9XdfiM1QS-OSdsIW6W8yhYE1652oOFx_kKT1HuFKTW_0h5pWJBBCiz9x_ZnQ3Nwevzxg4WX4HWZBGN7NmfxDarfRcE0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43898647 42768427 41478190 40878191 40728248
41078375 41548502 42188647 42748631 43208640

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 12:02:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041201
FFGMPD
WIZ000-041630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1195
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041200Z - 041630Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some additional
cell-training concerns will continue for at least a few more
hours. A threat for mainly urban flash flooding will persist this
morning as a result.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
band of strong convection with very cold cloud tops impacting
areas of central and eastern WI. The heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity is focused in close proximity to a quasi-stationary front
where a combination of stronger surface convergence and pooling of
elevated instability is working in tandem with relatively
divergent flow aloft to sustain the convective mass.

MUCAPE values are generally near 2000 J/kg with PWs of 1.5 to 1.75
inches. CIRA LVT data shows a well-defined low to mid-level
advance of moisture into central and eastern WI which is rounding
the top side of the subtropical ridge situated farther south over
parts of the OH Valley and middle MS Valley. A westerly low-level
jet of about 30+ kts is facilitating this moisture transport.

Satellite trends show additional areas of cooling clouds tops
upstream over western WI and even back into far southeast MN and
northeast IA. This suggests a likely persistence of the convective
threat for at least a few more hours downstream across areas of
central and eastern WI where recent radar data shows some
cell-training occurring.

Heavy rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour are possible with
the stronger storms, and the latest hires guidance led by the RRFS
and REFS suggests additional rainfall amounts of as much as 3 to
4+ inches going through late this morning. The additional rainfall
potential is expected to drive the persistence of at least an
urban flash flood threat as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7okZBTdaN39R2f0YMcDNihnuSHX0iuHqCk_ajzgzsrr4174UDvi3yJjBP6UmeoAHQj4BwnRpyXHkRfQcHtwgteGYpys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44468907 44218795 43638716 43128725 42828781
42918865 43198948 43659020 44089034 44428998

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 15:11:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041511
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-042110-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1196
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Great Lakes...Upper OH
Valley and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041510Z - 042110Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible going into the afternoon hours as additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms impact portions of the Southern Great
Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and Central Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows an
elongated and broken axis of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms crossing through southern lower MI and down through
northeast OH. The convection is associated with proximity of a
frontal zone along with a wave of low pressure advancing east
along it.

Over the next several hours, a combination of daytime
heating/boundary layer destabilization along warm air advection
and moisture transport into this front should favor regional areas
of redeveloping and expanding convection. This should especially
be the case across the Upper OH Valley and central Appalachians
with an emphasis on eastern OH. western PA and northern WV where
greater instability profiles with MLCAPE values increasing to 1500
to 2500+ are expected. Areas of orographic ascent into the terrain
will also be a player in supporting convective initiation.

Moderate to strong instability by mid-afternoon coupled with PWs
of 1.5 to 1.75 inches and at least moderate vertical shear should
support some storm organization and areas of high rainfall rates
capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour. Some repeating/training
cell-activity will be expected at least locally, and this will
support some some storm totals of 2 to 3+ inches. This is
generally supported by a consensus of the 12Z CAM guidance.

The FFG values are rather low across eastern OH, northern WV and
especially western PA, with elevated streamflows noted in the
latest USGS streamflow data. These more sensitive soil conditions
will increase the concern for additional areas of flash flooding
going into the afternoon hours. The overall threat will tend to be
isolated to scattered in nature, but will also include at least
localized urban flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-xXYnSQnf45AA97WkWNxniAt7UDuveYledzS7XiCCfoMSmHjd6984EjvtQJno2XDxkd9EV9pynNBYdLfHrFF5Kcn-Eg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...LWX...PBZ...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42818646 42798493 42378267 41708007 40637885
39357898 38138015 38208168 39258263 40028321
40968436 41578603 42018668

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 16:27:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041627
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1226 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041626Z - 042100Z

SUMMARY...Some increase in the coverage of heavy showers and
thunderstorms is expected over the next few hours. Additional
pockets of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with radar trends
show some uptick and expansion of convection across southern MS,
with some localize backbuilding and cell-training noted over the
last hour. The convection is focusing along a well-defined axis of
low to mid-level moisture convergence in close vicinity of a
surface trough, and mid-level low center over the north-central
Gulf of America.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg are noted along with PWs near
2.25 inches. Some modest easterly shear is noted over the central
Gulf Coast region given the placement of the mid-level low over
the Gulf and the subtropical ridge to the north. This is
supporting some localized organization of some of the convective
cells.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with
the strongest cells, and the latest HRRR and RRFS solutions
support some spotty 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals going through late
this afternoon. This will support some additional potential for
areas of flash flooding, and especially in vicinity of the more
urbanized areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_JBOZOS2TRL7owZQSOi8HKzaeo0f2-tguNsB5Gt9VrjJMcpsGAZy--71n47GksARG5hGkr1OdIiKkXGpb0BOwwUjG4s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31548931 31318858 30878823 30338834 30258913
30608978 31029026 31459012

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 18:06:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041806
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-050004-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1198
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KY east & southeast into VA/NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041804Z - 050004Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop in
southwest WV and eastern KY. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are building up across
southwest WV & eastern KY downstream of an instability pool across
OH, ahead of a front at 850 hPa and a surface thermal gradient,
and near the northeast periphery of a warm core high/ridge. CIN
is still trying to erode over portions of the Mid-Atlantic States
and eastern NC. Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts. Precipitable
water values of 1.5-2" exist in the region. ML CAPE is broadly
1500-3000 J/kg.

The mesoscale guidance signal here appears delayed compared to
what's ongoing. The mean 850-400 hPa wind, 1000-500 hPa thickness
pattern, and forward propagating Corfidi vectors strongly suggest
southeast motion to convection today. Convective coverage should
eventually become most dense across southeast VA and portions of
central and eastern NC where the 850 hPa confluence is strongest.
Given the ingredients available, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding particularly in/near sharp topography and in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Q-bWrSzzBie4cz2EIRgjsxjCclUQ1qRV-O40BGy_NZNXIh_v4-86k_GO5M3G7dpJpUpTnZtIxR6E6lP7oXovNDU0xY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MHX... MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38708313 38528180 38027779 37687543 36107548
35027729 34817937 35768142 38498407

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 18:12:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041811
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-050010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1199
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Southeast AZ...Western and Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041810Z - 050010Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms with some high-level
moisture tap from Hurricane Marie in the eastern Pacific will
impact southeast AZ through the western half of NM this afternoon.
Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely with impacts most
likely focused on burn scars and arroyos.

DISCUSSION...The late morning GOES-W GeoColor satellite imagery
along with LightningCast data shows convective initiation taking
place across areas of the Southwest with an emphasis on southeast
AZ through much of western and central NM. The larger scale view
of the Southwest shows a rather well-defined mid to upper-level
channel of moisture streaming northeastward up across the region,
with origins of some of this moisture extending well southwest
down to Hurricane Marie southwest of the Baja Peninsula.

OSPO-ALPW and experimental CIRA-LVT data shows moisture up in the
500/300 mb layer that will facilitate a notably efficient vertical
column for enhanced rainfall rates this afternoon as the diurnal
heating cycle/boundary layer destabilization process continues and
convection develops and expands in coverage.

SBCAPE values have already risen to as much as 1000 to 2000 J/kg
and the aforementioned moisture transport is driving PWs as high
as 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Some modest effective
bulk shear of 20 to 30 kts is in place with the stronger mid to
upper-level southwest flow aloft, and this shear coupled with the
thermodynamic environment may favor some locally organized
convective cells, with a mix of pulse and multi-cell convection
being the primary convective mode.

The rainfall rates are likely to be quite high given the
environment and the addition of orographic ascent/terrain-focused
convection will help support some rainfall rates as high as 1 inch
in 20 to 30 minutes, and some hourly totals up to 2 inches. The
hires multi-model CAM guidance suggests some spotty totals by
later this afternoon of 2 to 4 inches and this may be driven not
only by terrain, but also a couple of cell-mergers.

Given the setup with rainfall rates and totals, scattered areas of
flash flooding are likely. The greatest impacts are expected to be
for the normally dry washes/arroyos and burn scar locations,
including downstream areas even away from where the heaviest
rainfall occurs.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6C9AuZ32SDgN2T4_933LAsUXV_9uTqWiolVGI6MFvjp-C6W0PWGp29dCHsxv37iZsyLwx71j60voo9A_rSE_FXJfJvA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36360644 36130545 35280495 33830504 33060525
32600549 31740661 31250860 31201036 31401137
32071189 33111187 34091124 35131011 36030843

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 18:20:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041819
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-050018-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1200
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Southeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041818Z - 050018Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are starting to produce high
rain rates near sea breeze fronts heading towards an 850 hPa
confluence zone. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to
5" are possible where cells merge or manage to train, which could
cause flash flooding.

Discussion...An 850 hPa confluence zone stretches along the FL
border with GA/AL at the present time. Sea breeze convection
along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts has initiated thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall across the marshes of Southeast GA and
portions of the FL Big Bend & Panhandle. Precipitable water
values are ~2.25". Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts, implying
pulse convection. ML CAPE is 2000-3000 J/kg.

The guidance suggests that convection will try to push westward
with time, partially due to the Atlantic sea breeze north of the
confluence zone but also due to instability becoming exhausted and
resultant outflow boundaries. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with
local totals to 5" are possible, which could be sufficient to
cause flash flooding in urban areas and across the Red Hills of
southern GA and the FL Big Bend/eastern Panhandle.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-GFx-Xf0nIOMH2n6nllhUU7ABu7-6tyP7iS0U4_etiNJu5YcQvRWhK0OosoWYwMShmzOeiJXu_YDGG9RNrgOycd8btE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CHS...JAX...LIX...MLB...MOB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31888611 31468158 30498128 29198112 29348269
29548524 29978580 30308664 30498841 31448885

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 19:40:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041940
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1201
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...in and near Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041937Z - 050137Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are redeveloping near
the LA/MS border. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to
5" could lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are redeveloping near the
LA/MS border, possibly caused from an MCV that moved out of
earlier activity. The region is around the northern side of a
large upper level low encompassing the Gulf. Precipitable water
values are 2.25-2.5". ML CAPE is 1500-2500 J/kg, and CIN is
eroding in and near southern MS. Effective bulk shear is <25 kts,
which should lead to pulse convection.

The mesoscale guidance shows a general uptick and then collapse of
convection regionally over the next six hours, though the degree
of coverage shows significant variance -- the 12z HREF is much
more bullish than the 12z REFS -- which leads to greater
uncertainty than usual in convective expectations. The RAP opens
up an 850 hPa low offshore southeast LA and moves a zone of 850
hPa confluence into southern LA with time, which could aid heavy
rainfall production. Given the parameters in place, hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible where cell
merge or manage to train. This degree of rainfall would be most
problematic in urban areas. Flash flooding is possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-X-y_UgOGjbeoVX3_AawfmJr2zlflsX7YNrC6FeXZGNExWxgluCgtoDdROqWpNRdqRJXbaY8rIqgz7znhNV7c57IXmo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33029349 32929046 30508913 28988912 29089138
29669489 31679506

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 20:24:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042024
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050222-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1202
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042022Z - 050222Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form as CIN
erodes. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could lead to flash flooding
where topsoil is minimal or in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form west
of an upper level low retrograding towards the region within an
area of eroding CIN and in the vicinity of a weak thermal
gradient, with temperatures in the 80s/90s closer to the
upper-level low and 100F in the cumulus field to its west.
Precipitable water values of 1.4-1.9" lie here. ML CAPE is
2000-3500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is close to 25 kts. The
mean 850-400 hPa flow is exceedingly weak, on the order of 5 kt,
slightly less than the 850 hPa inflow.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to broaden with time,
peaking in coverage an intensity 23-00z before fading thereafter
as CIN redevelops. Inflow from the Gulf up the Rio Grande is
expected to veer slightly but increase in intensity, both of which
given the mean flow could lead to backbuilding or stationary
convection. However, as instability erodes, there could be a
tendency for convection to shift southwest towards the Rio Grande
as seen in the 12z REFS guidance. In the meantime, given the
ingredients above, hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible where
cells move very slowly or where cells merge. This would be
problematic in urban areas and where top soil is minimal.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_TMYkRsXoAcEKF3oY5q136hpj_OWbeR3kOf7hEtyjtPsnQGubtKMh-5n2XbZqURw91YpGv_eP2haJv6rz4z3dQ-R5D8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34310100 33489958 32219925 30299947 29670086
30250282 32410240

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 22:16:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042215
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-050413-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1203
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
615 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of Far Southeast AZ & NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042213Z - 050413Z

Summary...Shower and thunderstorm development is near its peak
regionally and should begin a downturn in coverage and intensity
this evening. Until that happens, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are
possible where cells merge or train, which could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving through
the Lower CO river valley at the present time, which is enhancing
difluence aloft near the Southern Rockies. When compared to
yesterday, thunderstorms over NM have been more numerous and
productive while cells over southeast AZ have seen a downturn.
This is due to the day-to-day precipitable water trends, which are
up ~0.50" in NM and down 0.25-0.5" in southern AZ, likely caused
by Marie's slow departure and shortwaves moving through the base
of the upper level trough. Thunderstorms reside within a region
of 700 hPa confluence. Regionally, precipitable water values are
1-1.7" currently with the highest values in southwest NM/near El
Paso TX. ML CAPE is 500-1000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25-30
kts in portions of NM, and below 25 kts in AZ.

Guidance suggests a slow downturn in convective development and
coverage should begin shortly and accelerate after 01z, with
activity in southwest NM/near El Paso hanging on the longest. For
as long as cell coverage can remain sufficient, hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" are possible where cells merge or train, which
would be problematic in burn scars, arroyos/dry washes, slot/box
canyons, and urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!67b98vmftg9VXxyVLM3r4RvvTgxVoE0W7-8slzcmIOAemzsvSdM4uFb1Pp-nnt5MnjWOukawKY6HLIqllX_CPqKhfQw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36260689 35860502 34380432 32550525 31380693
31170940 31461180 32741020 34570916

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 23:12:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042312
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-050337-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1204
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern VA & NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042307Z - 050337Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms continue to march southeast
through the region. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional
local totals to 4" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with greater
concentration near the eastern VA/NC border continue moving
southeast through the area within a zone of 850 hPa confluence
near a thermal boundary, though more elevated as of late. This
activity lies on the northeast periphery of a warm core ridge.
Precipitable water values of 1.75-2" exist here. ML/MU CIN has
developed across VA and portions of northern and eastern NC; MU
CAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg is seen regionally. Effective bulk shear
is 25-40 kts, which is helping to organize convection.

With MU CIN developing, convective coverage should continue to
wane which should lead to a slow reduction in the scale of the
flash flood threat. In the meantime, cell mergers, mesocyclones,
and cell training could lead to hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and
additional local totals to 4". These amounts would be most
problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_9FInOhx1XsS0v2NB8_n_EUjhg826otN3VaPbs2pM5ljQs2_3_YNm9tOyvCRcO_9NiEhwabxWASR-3V5HOKqqgwpGyo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37797677 37677553 36927581 36147537 35297530
34947589 34607639 34427775 35687977 37537944

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 00:59:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050059
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-050627-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1205
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Southeast PA, Southern NJ, & DE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050057Z - 050627Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to intensify and
grow in scale as they move southeast. Hourly rain amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...Some shower and thunderstorm activity has recently
formed across central PA, whose motion is not quite aligned in a
training manner. It is forming within a MU CAPE gradient which is
slowly settling southward and is oriented northwest- southeast
within an area of 850 hPa confluence. Effective bulk shear is
30-40 kts. MU CAPE is 500-1000 J/kg.

The low-level convergence zone should settle somewhat southward
with time. Both the 18z HREF and 12z REFS have a signal for this
activity which appears to be forming right on their schedule.
With time, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form with the activity potentially growing in scale into a small
convective complex as it moves southeast, which could lead to cell training/mergers. The magnitude of effective bulk shear allows
for mesocyclones as well. Most of the guidance that advertises
heavy rainfall in this region doesn't enhance this activity
significantly until right after it passes out of southeast PA, but
it's too close for comfort. Given the moisture available, hourly
rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible. This
degree of rainfall could exceed the three hour flash flood
guidance values, particularly across southeast PA. Flash flooding
is considered possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7OuBssVrwAxq_d2SsrPXhchwUHLdyAN_l6rEXLB6Dy5AMZ0nf5yirnpW81mfXnjb6aGL_ppKADHqYxuTW3FurrdwDVs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41367825 41137708 39867489 39347432 39147462
38907473 38807497 38407502 38497573 39677716
40987831

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 05:17:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050517
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-051100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
116 AM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Southern Michigan...Northeast Indiana...Northwest
to Southeast Ohio...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050520Z - 051100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective activity with capability of
1.5-1.75"/hr rates and favorable repeating/training environment
for localized streaks of 2-3" totals overnight. Isolated to
widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...05z surface analysis shows a weak surface low at the
southern base of Lake Michigan at a weak inflection the stationary
front that is more west to east along the WI/IL state line before
angling south-southeast across NE IND into central OH before
crossing into W PA. Aloft, a 500mb jet speed max is exiting the
LP across Lake Erie into the Mid-Atlantic resulting in a broad
right entrance region across SW LP of MI, where also a pocket of
cooler air aloft (-6 to -8C) resides sliding eastward indicative
of slightly enhanced lapse rates further west. Low level
925-700mb deep layer flow has responded with still mostly
unidirectional flow out of the west, but a small veered low level
profile weakly oblique to the isentropic plane associated with the
frontal zone. In addition, retrograding upper-level low over
Eastern Canada has started to result in increasing 925-850mb
northeasterly flow which is significantly drier. This is helping
to steepen isentropes near and downstream of the weak surface low
to support deep layer convergence in the isentropic ascent for
convective initiation across S MI at this time, coincident with
the 500-300mb divergence maxima passing southeastward.

The overall coverage and organization still remains scattered due
to oblique/weak convergence forcing, but the ample deep layer
moisture pooled in this region is about 2" of TPW. Slow
organization and increasingly confluent steering flow across NW
OH/SE MI may help to organize thunderstorm activity into a more
favorable orientation for repeating/training. Still, MUCAPE is
higher further southwest into NE IL/NW IND around 4000 J/kg, but
remains very capped with 50-75 J/kg of remaining CINH. RAP
analysis suggests weaker capping (less than 25 J/kg) along the
northeast gradient of CAPE but still around 1500-2000 J/kg to
support strong updraft vigor and low level moisture flux
convergence for efficient rainfall production. Bulk shear is a
bit weak overall for better organization (currently about
20-25kts) but any improvement may allow for broader updrafts as
well, but given inflow of 20-30kts (also 925mb northeasterly flow
of 15kts) should allow for flux convergence to support 1.5-1.75";
though this could increase with any improvement in deeper shear
profile toward 2"/hr.

So while repeating is likely to be required to overcome the higher
FFG values of S MI/NE IND (currently 1.8-2.3"/hr), this will
reduce across areas recently saturated by activity though the last
few days across SE MI/Northwest OH, where values drop to 1.5-2"/hr
with some spots even below 1.5" further southeast; with 3hr values
of 2-2.5" across much of the area of concern. So with localized
streaks of 2-3" totals, isolated to widely scattered incident(s)
of flash flooding will become possible though the early morning

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8hxLLuxJafOzbZLbQ7YTA0RNlx1KzzRj1oPPjwWf_0fkvdcDiT5NCmjt2lc6zsa5PAIJi55bTk3eixJJal_rrdhSzvs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42278604 42208477 41828342 40858144 40388109
39718116 39408225 39648332 40388494 41478645

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 07:27:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050727
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-051300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1207
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050730Z - 051300Z

SUMMARY...Warm-air advection convection will be slow moving with
rates of 1.5"/hr . Very dry, high FFG grounds may be able to
uptake much of the rainfall, but isolated exceedance remains
possible given localized totals of 2-3.5" are possible through
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad warming across SD as
downstream ridging amplifies slowly, but also a broad area of
increasing divergence aloft exists as well, as sub-tropical jet
turns more easterly across KS and S NEB, as well as advancing
large scale trough enters the northwest providing diffluent flow
of the polar jet streak across the western Dakotas. As such, the
LLJ has rapidly increased over the last few hours with 850mb winds
increasing to 40-50kts over the western Dakotas, with
confluent/convergent 25-30kts across eastern South Dakota. This
convergent flow has increased deep layer moisture to over 1.5"
pooled along a stationary front that bisects SD from NW to SE
before turning east across N IA. Surface Tds in the low to
mid-70s and increasing 850mb moisture but steepened lapse rates
over 700mb from mid-level dry air supports high MUCAPE over 4000
J/kg per RAP analysis. Though highly capped, the strength of the
deep layer moisture confluence/convergence is supporting
isentropic ascent across the boundary resulting in convective
development across south-central SD with scattered TCu and
isolated CBs into north-central SD.

GOES-E 10.3um shows cluster cooling below -60C, and RADAR shows
numerous smaller updrafts starting to congeal into larger
clusters. Rain-rates are starting to respond and increase locally
to 1.5"/hr. This may occasionally uptick toward 1.75", but the
greater concern is residency time. Deep layer steering in the
divergent flow aloft and building ridging (noted in 850-500mb
reduced flow east into central MN), suggests very slow north to
north-northeast motions. However, given the strength of the
low-level inflow and 1000-500 thickness packing; propagation
vectors are toward the south-southeast at 5-10kts, resulting in
slow eastward drift at 5-10kts. Upwind redevelopment in proximity
to the isentropic boundary may help with some
back-building/regeneration to further increase time at any given
location. As such, widely scattered spots of 3-3.5"/hr are
possible within an axis of 2-3" east and north of the Missouri
River & frontal zone.

This increased residency will be required given naturally high FFG
values of 2-2.5"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs across much of the area of
concern. Combined with long-period dry grounds as 0-40cm ratios
are dismally low less than 10%. Rates can be high given hard
ground conditons but may not be excessive enough that slow
infiltation is more likely. Still, the overall totals locally of
3-3.5" may still result in a low-end isolated to widely scattered
incident or two of flash flooding through the early morning and is
therefore considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!47hubHXHVii3AQyBic2oDTCdKem_BmyskntQsd9YZBbV9uIWw9FPYMooUzakrbBtejy7LQlCMPGye5vYBpuHme3VAiM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45649842 45359757 44839674 44359639 43669620
43149641 42929679 42939768 43219867 43999931
44889962 45559925

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:44:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051744
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1208
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Far Southwest TX...Central and Southern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051743Z - 052330Z

SUMMARY...Developing scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected going through the afternoon hours.
Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible, and mainly for
the more sensitive burn scar and canyon areas along with dry
washes.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
some convective initiation taking place across the Sacramento
Mountains. The daytime heating cycle will continue to foster
additional boundary layer destabilization, and this coupled with
differential heating boundaries and terrain-driven circulations
should promote a gradual uptick in convective coverage with
scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Much of the current instability is over southern NM and far
southwest TX, and inclusive of areas near the Sacramento Mountains
and the Davis Mountains. SBCAPE avalues of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg are
noted across these areas. However, the monsoonal moisture
footprint across the region is relatively modest with PWs as high
as 1.25+ inches.

The latest hires model CAMs suggest a scattered convective
footprint with some potential for isolated 2 to 3 inch rainfall
totals. Overall, the greatest rainfall totals should tend to be
near the Sacramento Mountains, however, some adjacent areas of
southern NM and far southwest TX will also have support for this
and especially with some storms being capable of being slow-moving
while producing some rainfall rates of 1.5 inches/hour.

An isolated threat for flash flooding will exist as a result going
through the afternoon hours. The more sensitive burn scar and
canyon areas along with dry washes will be most susceptible to
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8XzfE2jacviXKMYrJA-RU7p93GGDJ-txNWNSKc2PZqPiU1F44zax57kSubCVrLhma5R60V0V-I6eZclGw-qlF9FA69U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34430671 34120501 31600401 30520329 29780359
29650449 30630572 31420665 31730814 32540880
33370844

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:47:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051747
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southwest LA & Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051745Z - 052345Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
becoming numerous across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5", particularly in urban areas and soils
still partially saturated by Edouard.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across Southwest LA & Southeast TX. This is occurring near a zone
of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5".
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, leading to pulse convection. ML
CAPE is ~2000 J/kg.

GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index values imply that convection could
continue to increase in coverage through 21z before starting to
starting to fade thereafter. This is supported by 12z HREF
guidance. Due to the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" are possible where cells merge or manage
to train. This would be most problematic in urban areas and
locations with soils remaining at least partially saturated from
Edouard's deluge a few days ago.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8vDuqr29apw118N3IGUTU3EapgbV3Y_yFlO52aBPjckqaX1WDr8OYsrEzCE6TTxI8RkAJleD-PqKNbN-4puYrSI_6Mo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32469462 31379275 30899044 29749097 29409190
29539385 28669566 28349692 29719685 31349648
32309565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 18:15:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051747
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southwest LA & Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051745Z - 052345Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
becoming numerous across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5", particularly in urban areas and soils
still partially saturated by Edouard.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across Southwest LA & Southeast TX. This is occurring near a zone
of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5".
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, leading to pulse convection. ML
CAPE is ~2000 J/kg.

GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index values imply that convection could
continue to increase in coverage through 21z before starting to
starting to fade thereafter. This is supported by 12z HREF
guidance. Due to the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" are possible where cells merge or manage
to train. This would be most problematic in urban areas and
locations with soils remaining at least partially saturated from
Edouard's deluge a few days ago.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5zxcEsyxRDCnpl8x4X6i1BxF5kiv7qCngCjFUy4CubUPjGF3S80pA0JmQ5Tr4ScwKG7v8Q9fNQ9Z0_DCPOYEeWPYFys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32469462 31379275 30899044 29749097 29409190
29539385 28669566 28349692 29719685 31349648
32309565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 21:31:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052130
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-060326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1212
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the NE Panhandle/northeast CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052126Z - 060326Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are aligning/congealing along
a convergence zone in the NE Panhandle. Hourly rain amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" are possible, which may lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...There has been some consolidation of a line of
convection along a convergence zone in the NE Panhandle, which
both the 18z HREF/12z REFS indicated, to some degree, farther
south of its current location. CIN has eroded in its vicinity.
Precipitable water values are 1-1.25", fairly high for the High
Plains. ML CAPE is ~1500 J/kg in the vicinity of the convective
line, which lies along a north- south instability gradient. This
convection is also near the 15C isotherm at 700 hPa, which tends
to act as the edge of effective mid-level capping in the High
Plains. Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts is organizing
convection.

The guidance indicates some south to south-southeast shifting of
this convective line with time and possible consolidation into a
small convective complex. This movement is at a significant angle
to the 850-400 hPa mean wind, 1000-500 hPa thickness pattern, and
forward propagation vectors. This could be due to the convection,
with time, creating a hole in the instability field which forces
activity into the southerly low-level inflow and the idea that CIN
never fully erodes to its east as 700 hPa temperatures are high
enough to cap lower elevations of the Plains. In any event, the
parameters above suggest hourly rain amounts to 2" with local
totals to 4" are possible. As this activity is straddling the
edge of the Sand Hills, flash flooding prospects are conditional.
Should this heavy rainfall occur outside of the Sand Hills or in
urban areas, flash flooding would be possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ZP3N-oj_mcV4D7tvZHTvJIxn-nNf-TvYyMB8SXLtViVPirUDlLXJ9kpP2US9XZSIO9q7LaRdMTx5Qyl_oUFhtbywgU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 43190258 42980179 41820159 40590191 40470333
41760379

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 02:58:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060257
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-060800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1213
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southwest Nebraska &
Southern Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060300Z - 060800Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding remains possible for areas out
of Sand Hills or South Platte River Valley for a few more hours
before complex become forward propagating limiting duration at any
specific location.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows favorable mid to upper level
environment remains across the central High Plains as a subtle
shortwave lifts northeast across E WY along the northwest edge of
the larger scale ridge that is anchored along or just east of
100W. ML 6.9um also notes some higher cirrus with more of a
southwest to east-northeast orientation out of central CO toward W
KS. The combination of features continues to support strong
divergence pattern over Northeast CO into SW NEB, outflow
continues to strengthen due fed as a response to earlier
convective activity with AMV suggesting 60-70ks across the Sand
Hills into southern SD. As such, low level flow continues to
strengthen out of the south and southeast with 850mb flow around
25-30kts from the SE becoming strongly convergent in response to
the 850mb low forming across NE CO. Combine this with 700mb due
south jet providing further sub-tropical moisture connection per
CIRA LPW in the complex with slight confluence from southwesterly
700mb flow off the Front Range to further support short-term
back-building of convection toward the cyclone over the last few
hours. Outflow boundaries have gusted westward and 3.9um SWIR
loop and observations denoted the increase in overall moisture
with Tds in the 50s now back as far west as 82V and GXY, and some
60s as far west as AKO, IML and SYF. Total PWat estimates are
starting to reach 1.6-1.7" and with little sub-cloud evaporation,
rates are increasing to 1.5"/hr locally.

The back-building should start to reduce with time as forward
propagation should be drawing the convective cores eastward toward
06-07z. However, there remains a small window where back-building
southerly inflow at 850-700mb will counter strengthening
southeasterly inflow and cell residency may result from some
short-term periods of repeating or even cell mergers being within
the northeast (downshear) quadrant of the developing cyclone. As
such spots of 2-3" totals remain possible resulting in potential
for localized flash flooding. Hydrologically, the FFG values are
highly variable due to larger sand hills across SW NEB and
naturally absorptive soils in the broader South Platte River
Channel proper. However, there are still some rugged, rockier
locations across NE CO that will likely shed some of the higher
rate totals. As the complex forward propagates into stronger
southeasterly flow, overall totals should diminish across NW
KS...south-central NEB.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ACidGhqoCqoN8u-nxLzKT63cEIhkgW3oSnaMY3w3ZYF_0LeUsFjBNx1IqQ9-e1BbJTgQYNwqG60h19WaHFgaRls_z0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41750245 41460157 40940119 40490125 39950195
39760277 39930364 40410421 41050412 41560353

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 15:57:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 061557
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Central/Eastern SD...Far Northeast NE...Northwest IA...Southwest MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061555Z - 062155Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the concentration of heavy showers
and thunderstorms can be expected going through the afternoon
hours. A growing threat for scattered areas of flash flooding will
exist which may include some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The mid to late-morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery
shows broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting
portions of central/southern SD and northeast NE, with separate
activity also noted more recently over parts of southwest MN and
adjacent areas of northern IA.

Much of the activity is associated with an ejecting shortwave
trough out across the central Plains which is gradually moving off
to the east while also interacting with a quasi-stationary front.
Warm air advection ahead of the shortwave coupled with a corridor
of strong elevated instability and the arrival of DPVA should set
the stage for a more expansive convective footprint by early to
mid-afternoon.

MUCAPE values near and just northeast of the stationary front are
on the order of 3000 to 4000 J/kg, and PWs are quite high with
values near 1.75 inches. This combination of moisture and
instability will support showers and thunderstorms with
increasingly heavy rainfall rates as stronger forcing/lift arrives
with the shortwave dynamics/divergent flow aloft.

The 12Z hires CAMs as a consensus supports rainfall rates capable
of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the expanding corridors of
stronger storms. However, the growing concern over the next
several hours will be slow cell-motions and a favorable
environment for backbuilding and locally training convection as
suggested by the Corfidi upwind propagation vectors.

Some rainfall totals by mid-afternoon may reach as high as 3 to 5+
inches given the high rainfall rates and slow cell-motions, and
this is supported by the consensus of the 12Z hires CAMs. These
high rainfall totals will generally favor 1 and 3-hour FFG
exceedance (30 to 50+ percent probabilities).

Therefore, the threat for at least scattered areas of flash
flooding is expected to increase with time, with an emphasis on
eastern SD into southwest MN and northwest IA. This will include
concerns for urban impacts, and especially for areas near Sioux
Falls.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_JN6FKnpbDfdBmMquVwukJLfpE-h3b60MgqyNaIeqJ1V8-zC1t0V69OU63ZTPFtyPTTElclEUmBL-ARZzILMdYOlHO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DMX...FGF...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46079883 46029690 45589570 45129506 44289445
43219412 41579445 41119605 42279765 43539904
44370051 45540070

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 19:07:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 061907
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-070104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1215
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...South Carolina into Eastern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061904Z - 070104Z

SUMMARY...Increasing shower and thunderstorm development over the late-afternoon and early evening across South Carolina into
Georgia will lead to scattered instances of flash flooding as
rainfall rates reach between 2-3 inches per hour with the
strongest cells.

DISCUSSION...Current radar and satellite depictions note an
upstream shortwave migrating southeastward out of the Ohio Valley
with increased forcing within the western NC mountains down into
the Piedmont of the Carolinas as scattered thunderstorm activity
ensues over the area. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed
from western NC down through the SC Midlands to the SC coastal
plain with slow forward propagation to the south as high pressure
over the Great Lakes noses the front down east of the
Appalachians. Moisture and instability fields remain prime for
heavy rainfall prospects as PWAT anomalies between +1 to +2
deviations are situated along and south of the frontal boundary in
the Carolinas into northern FL. SBCAPE between 1500-3000 J/kg are
located across SC with some SBCAPE inferences of up to 4000 J/kg
are located along the southeastern GA coast leading to the
potential for significant convective cores capable of initiating
strong to locally severe thunderstorms over the back half of the
afternoon through the early evening time frame.

Increased low-level convergence along the front, as well as along
the immediate SC/GA coast thanks to a weak surface low positioned
100 miles off the coast of Charleston, SC will act as focal points
for convection as mean flow out of the northwest will lead to cell
motions generally down through SC with an anchoring near the
coastal plain as they approach a defined surface trough analyzed
along the SC/GA coastal plain. Latest RRFS/HRRR outputs indicate
cell initiation across SC forming between 19-20z with a blossoming
in the overall coverage shortly thereafter as temperatures in the
low-90s allow for a breach of convective temps situated around
90-92F as noted via the 12z RAOB from KCHS and 18z RAOB from KJAX.
Main convective mode will likely be multi-cellular as a lack of
sufficient shear will limit mesocyclone maturation, however, given
the overall buoyancy of the thermodynamic environment and
increasing favorable kinematics, strong to locally severe
thunderstorms will develop and produce high convective rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr for much of the aforementioned area.

12z HREF neighborhood probs for >3" over 6hrs are upwards of
60-90% for the time frame between 21-03z this evening over the SC
Midlands down through all of southeast GA into northeast FL with
HREFbm totals for the threat encroaching on 3-5" for the same
area. This signal is more than sufficient for scattered flash
flooding within those urbanized settings over the region with an
emphasis on places like Columbia, Charleston, and Beaufort in SC,
as well as Augusta to Savannah/Brunswick in GA given their more
favorable run off capabilities due to urbanization. Heavy
convection will be littered across the region with a general 1-2"
forecast with locally heavier totals upwards of 5" in the hardest
hit locations.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qmILs4jiVnzLGhUJruSyO1_VXiqXVV5pJjlIwy-vxQ6UVQok-wL-C-L4d93fKMk396mih25OdcI1Uqr0fKYi5PX-hQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35168190 35138102 34878036 34118014 33497989
33007972 32677973 32388020 31668096 30138146
30638315 31728360 32648306 33698233 34778234

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 21:56:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 062155
FFGMPD
MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Corn Belt into the Missouri River
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062153Z - 070353Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous slow-moving thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, will lead to a continued flash flood threat for
portions of the Corn Belt down through the adjacent Missouri River
Valley. Rainfall rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible
in the strongest thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy thunderstorm activity continues
across much of western Iowa up into neighboring South Dakota and
Minnesota this afternoon. Upper level setup remains favorable for
broad scale ascent within a diffluent region positioned over the
North-Central Plains to Upper Midwest thanks to the slow
progression of a strong upper trough navigating over the
Northwestern U.S. At the surface, intense low-level convergence is
occurring within a narrow corridor situated near and just east of
the Missouri River as a quasi-stationary front aligns north to
south between SD down into KS. A broad surface high over the Great
Lakes allows for a continued southeasterly flow on the western
fringes of the ridge, providing a more prevalent low-level
convergence signature in tandem with the stationary front in
place. Deep moisture advection and elevated theta_E's continue to
align in parallel to the frontal placement with MUCAPE firmly
between 3000-5000 J/kg according to the latest RAP mesoanalysis
over northwest MO through much of western IA. The setup remains
favorable for scattered to widespread heavy convective development
within that corridor of elevated theta_E's and PWATs bisecting the
region with much of the CAMs maintaining the posture into the
evening.

Convective modes will remain more pulse to multi-cellular
varieties, but the formidable instability axis and deep moist
profile lend to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
torrential rainfall rates and gusty winds that will exacerbate
flash flooding concerns where significant rainfall has already
occurred, and points further south as mid-level ascent becomes
more favored for areas of west-central IA down into northwestern
MO. Latest HRRR/RRFS combo is consistent in the signature of heavy
thunderstorm development within the narrow tongue of elevated
theta_E's centered just east of the Missouri River. Rainfall rates
between 2-3"/hr are likely in the strongest cell cores and with
mean flow generally out of the north to north-northwest, cells
will train or slowly wander over the same areas leading to
localized totals exceeding 3 inches with some CAMs members showing
upwards of 6 inches plausible in the setup. Despite some modest
FFG's over the region, rainfall rates and significant rainfall
totals will supersede majority of the antecedent dryness over the
area leading to a greater threat for flash flooding. Given the
current state of flash flood warnings already issued with the
environmental favorability continuing through the evening, flash
flooding is likely to continue to the aforementioned area.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_rgRiAhXDAIHEdS6NhNEBj4fLxR8JrAk7yfk0RMSasMbanj7LkDeN4yihU3gn78mpdWivACoOKTeeT_BQEx2mcF00MM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...MPX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43649577 43619511 43509459 43149407 42379382
41449364 40749345 39779338 38589337 38139408
38269520 39689591 40939638 41689650 42169655
42679662 43049667 43529640 43619606

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 05:28:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070527
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern WY...Southwest SD...Northern NEB
Panhandle....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070530Z - 071000Z

SUMMARY...Very strong moisture flux convergence and short-term
repeating downdrafts capable of 1.5-1.75"/hr rates moving into
naturally lower FFG values and may result in localized flash
flooding incident or two.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows a very strong dynamic upper-low
crossing E WA into E ID with a broad dry-slot across the Great
Basin. Strong dual jet structure over ID and core of of 100-120kt
jet over W WY is favorably arched to provide strong diffluence
along the eastern underside of the jet across the High Plains of
CO into E WY. Strong low-level response has been seen in VWP and
RAP analysis supporting 850-700 FGEN axis just east of the
Colorado Front Range northward along the E WY toward SE MT given
25-30kts of veered surface to 700mb flow (easterly to southerly).
As such, moisture is pooling along the FGEN fields with total PWat
values increasing to over 1.25" to 1.5" quickly over the next few
hours. The strong forcing acting on a pool of conditionally
unstable air across E WY/SW SD/NW NEB (2000-2500 J/kg) has
resulted in broader ascent that given the strong effective bulk
shear of 40-50kts has resulted in broader supercell/rotating
updrafts with cells given broade southeasterly inflow have started
with increased flanking line development. Further moisture flux
convergence due to supercell structures are broadening the inflow
field to inject more moisture to support increasing 1.5-1.75"/hr.

While deep layer steering from the southwest would normally result
in very quick motions, the rotation is also reducing forward speed
with some eastward deflection, allowing for the flanking line
development to orient favorably for short-term repeating/increased
residency in the near storm environment. As the cells move out of
the North Platte Valley into NW NEB/SW SD, the FFG values reduce
quickly with 1hr FFG values less than 1.5" and 3hr of 2-2.5".
Given potential for localized 2-3" totals due to short-term
training both FFG time periods become at risk of exceedance.
Though northern cell in Weston county is moving toward higher FFG
values in the Black Hills, the rugged granite topography could
still result in localized concerns given high runoff potential
(though this is, of course a lower potential than Niobrara to
Oglala-Lakota counties).

Forward propagation and northward shift of ideal divergence
support aloft toward the north should limit the longevity of the
developing cluster/complex over W SD toward 09z. However, there
is sufficient suggestion an isolated to widely scattered incident
or two of flash flooding remain possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LkzvreNaOTS-prem_sXCx0Zkk-xzUtFcH6SegyMvUb7Z8Zhz6v3Gvqafd65GCjBJ3CsZ5PeftbxMK62xzZZ04gid-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45200321 45040221 44540172 43420146 42670245
42220331 41960435 42320488 43060483 44040477
44500449 44910396

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 07:36:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070735
FFGMPD
MTZ000-071300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...East Central Montana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070735Z - 071300Z

SUMMARY...Training/repeating cells along border with upstream
redevelopment due to approaching deep layer cyclone to support
strong cells capable of 1.5-2.5" in a few hours. Localized flash
flooding will be possible where training/repeating occurs.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite denotes core of closed upper-level
low is shifting out of WA/OR into ID with modest negative tilt
orientation across the Northern Intermountain region of SW MT/W WY
and is slightly out of phase with southwesterly flow shortwave
though in a favorable manner for large scale ascent/cyclogenesis
across the Northern High Plains. This shortwave exists in the
split of the inner polar jet over SE ID and stronger 90kt jet
streaming across WY, resulting in strong downstream dPVA over SE
MT and increased divergence/diffluence noted by lower layer
baroclinic shield over central MT (along/west of 110W). As such,
surface to 850mb cyclogenesis is well on it way across SE MT/NE WY
and a sharp inverted trough exists northward through NE MT; west
of which stronger northerly/north-northeasterly flow is
strengthening providing solid moisture flux with 1.25" TPW
increasingly toward 1.4" Rosebud/Yellowstone county along the
northwest side of the surface low.

Above average theta-E air still retains heating from this
afternoon and with some steepening lapse rates results in an axis
of 1500-2000 J/kg of capped MLCAPE. Weaker capping near the
Canadian border with initial moisture flux convergence in the
850-700mb layer has maintained scattered supercells that have
advanced eastward out of Blaine into Phillips county.
Intersection with the divergence aloft and increasingly low level
moisture flux has seen an broadening of updrafts and upscale
growth of the complex. Steering flow has also reduced the
eastward propagation enough for increasing residency of modest
1.25-1.5"/hr rates. Though isolated personal weather stations
suggest stronger instantaneous/sub-hourly totals, near 1"/30
minutes. Slowing steering will also allow for some repeating in
the near term, so localized 1.5-2" with an isolated 2.5" becoming
possible. Naturally low FFG values <1.5"/hr and <2"/3hrs have
good possibility of locally being exceeded with potential for
localized incident(s) of flash flooding possible in the next few
hours.

As the negative tilt and shortwave lift northward, stronger
convection is expected to develop (as noted with a few cells
breaking out in Sweet Grass/Stillwater counties). While faster
moving, deeper layer moisture convergence along the north-south
oriented boundary between the convective line along 850-700mb
effective frontal zone may promote some repeating from south to
north and while likely less effective than storms north, rates of
1-1.25" are possible and streaks of 1-2" may also be possible. As
such, have expanded the area of concern within the
instability/moisture axis west of the surface low and along the
axis of lower FFG values as points of isolated flooding concerns
as well through 12z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9lBN_xk125UwMxSHW9JLng5JMmbiRN5cCbnDuJxQUA1IE5B4C02ro0zoCeY20jRpyX6erZX1M_jUZp7cyb5x7uGP5QY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 49090858 49080748 49070525 48750537 47880609
46870676 45850801 45800955 46790892 47740867
48280873 49010881

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 08:26:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070825
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-071300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1219
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Iowa...Extreme Southeast South
Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070825Z - 071300Z

SUMMARY...Near stationary over-running cells capable of 1-1.5"/hr
rates and highly focused 2-4" totals across areas of reduced FFG.
Localized flash flooding remains possible through early morning.

DISCUSSION...A narrow window of weak but sufficient isentropic
ascent has broken out elevated convection across the narrow stripe
of recently affected areas where FFG values remain well below
normal and less than <1.5"/hr and <2"/3hrs. GOES-E 10.3um and
3.9um SWIR IR loops combined with VWP out of FSD/OAX denote rapid
veering with westerly 700mb winds at 20kts from the west are
fairly orthogonal to the SSE to NNW surface to 850mb frontal zone
across eastern NEB resulting in convergence around or just below
the 700mb level with increase in congestus eventually blossoming
to a few CBs in NW IA with further weaker more scattered
convection further south into SW IA. The orientation of the
boundary also resides on the NE side of a 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE
(per RAP soundings) gradient that also aligns with the compromised
soil conditions. RAP CINH fields are still showing more CINH
further south and higher CAPE upstream into SE SD. A few TCu
exist there, but FFG values also rapidly increase across Yankton
to Miner counties; so have limited the areal extent for potential
additional flash flooding to those areas where FFG values remain
low.

Westerly winds are expected to remain but weaken slightly over the
next few hours, so most of the expected weakening past 12z will be
due to exhausting the remaining uncapped mid-level unstable air
upstream. With limited cell motion and inflow generally equal and
opposite to the mean steering from 700-400mb, cells are likely to
remain somewhat stationary with slight back-building possible. As
such, highly focused areas of 2-4" over the next 3-4 hours are
possible and given the low FFG, localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AuluJELOiNKgJHhkLuDmYGQQYYT2KREQRaswtVzjlp2cp5rPo6q5o9GSihxSOpzYKRdV1BY51yaAY9K5FBMexEpEV8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43509698 43339595 42979523 42399451 41579402
40939447 41079541 42429639 43179712

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 15:20:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071519
FFGMPD
MTZ000-072115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1220
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...northwestern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071518Z - 072115Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northwestern MT over the next 6 hours as an additional
1-2 inches of rain fall atop areas that have received heavy rain
over the past few days. Hourly rainfall totals are expected to
peak over 0.5 inches through 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from 15Z showed a strong mid to
upper level low/trough advancing from north-central ID into
western MT. Out ahead of this feature was a west-east oriented
axis of heavy rain, noted on area radar imagery, with embedded
thunder, located from ~20 miles south of Cut Bank to ~40 miles
south of Havre. Gauge reports from within this axis of heavy rain
have shown 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain in and around Great Falls but
with much of that falling in about 15-30 minutes. The 12Z sounding
from TFX showed a precipitable water value of 1.01 inches, which
was near the climatological max for early September, but limited
MUCAPE of 235 J/kg. The strong dynamics corresponding to the upper
trough were making up for the lacking instability with left-exit
region upper level jet divergence and diffluence advancing through
west-central MT.

As the mid to upper-level low advances northeastward into
north-central MT through 21Z, weak elevated instability, locally
exceeding 500 J/kg, is forecast by the RAP to affect locations
from the northern Rockies into the upper Missouri Valley and the
U.S./Canadian border. A deformation axis is likely to become
better defined later this morning into the afternoon over
northwestern MT, containing stratiform moderate rain with embedded
cores of heavy rain and possible thunder.

Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches associated with the ongoing
northward moving axis of heavy rain over west-central MT will
continue to translate north over the next 2-3 hours while steady
moderate to heavy rain sets up to the west. Through the early
afternoon, additional pockets of heavy rain are expected into
parts of northwestern to north-central MT with hourly rainfall up
to ~0.5 inches and 6 hour totals in the 1 to 2 inch range.

Due to 1-3 inches of rainfall that has fallen over the past 2-3
days across portions of western MT, additional localized heavy
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches may result in localized areas of rapid rises/inundation within areas of sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9CB-_bNsgCH8GlcCqwCjEqMlm1oV3KE7knuXs1v5LTbEREl6Hp6W8aBQJRtW04uX3YK5OhqIEgdPSB6x-axAItGHkJs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49131247 49111025 49081007 48411002 48081041
47671219 47101316 47011386 47461491 48161548
48811547 49081533 49091529

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 19:32:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071932
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1221
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071930Z - 080130Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood concerns across the terrain and
adjacent valley areas of eastern Arizona and the northern and
western area of New Mexico. Flashier dry river beds and remnant
burn scars are the main areas of concern. Rainfall rates upwards
of 1 inch per hour.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon destabilization across portions of the
Southwestern U.S. will allow for the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms over portions of AZ and NM. PWATs remain
elevated between 1.1-1.6" across the aforementioned areas with
instability fields becoming increasingly favorable as we move
through peak diurnal heating. Low shear, high SBCAPE on the order
of 1000-2500 J/kg across the region will provide a sufficient
environment for pulse convection and a few convective clusters
with the primary target over the eastern Mogollon Rim and the
terrain in-of western NM. Rainfall rates between 0.5-1"/hr in
stronger cells are forecast, but some intra-hour rates could
breach closer to 1.5"/hr which could provide more appreciable run
off capabilities as a result.

Primary concerns will be those flashier dry river beds and any
remnant burn scars over the area along with the typical urbanized
threats in towns across the area. HREF probs for >1" are modest
with the maxima (40-60%) located over west-central NM to the AZ
border where convection is currently developing. This correlates
with the progged higher SBCAPE location meaning some stronger cell
cores are possible during their maturation process.

Flash flood concerns will be isolated overall, but the threat
remains coincident with the MRGL risk ERO in place and solid
continuity of the threat in the recent CAMs.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4b3Pcn4Z7oyFJB3iUFwxYo_JhsS6JGmUGB89LKjjzv1fQJjCzgtiNpWZxYsAk-5uL-9rytOIJLLxTMZZ8BK48UBR0I8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36990520 36450450 35230648 34250701 33460741
32390828 31920856 31530919 31381058 31411115
31611226 31971295 33241165 34151127 35161081
35841016 36530889 36970761

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 01:31:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080130
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080728-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1222
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080128Z - 080728Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall likely across southeastern SD in the path
of a potent supercell likely to traverse the region. Rainfall
rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are likely in the storms path
leading to scattered bouts of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Rapidly intensifying supercell ahead of a slowly
progressing warm front over the Plains will become a focal point
for heavy rainfall prospects over the southeastern area of SD into
the quad state region encompassing MN/IA/NE. Current mesoanalysis
points to a suitable thermodynamic environment and effective bulk
shear between 40-50kts suitable for sustaining a prominent
mesocyclone over the region for likely several hours until the
warm front progresses through the area. Recent trends have noted a
rapid intensification of the supercell in progress with rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr as of the current obs.

Expectation is for heavy rain to focus within the path of the
supercell with a few more cells potentially developing over the
area due to increased forcing occurring from a shortwave ejection
out of the Front Range of WY. At the surface, the warm front will
slowly migrate eastward with the storms anchoring to the front in
question which will provide the necessary element to sustain an
abundant surface based forcing mechanism to keep cells
well-defined and lasting for several hours before dissipating.

Scattered flash flood concerns will last through the evening with
some guidance indicating lingering concerns into the early morning
hours. Rainfall totals between 2-4" with locally as high as 6" are
possible in the impacted area.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_t01qirNZ6reF2CK1S09fZ2ErkTTmJUfGvWn4yhR-6TfxQ8Xk3vzV9jXlIvBLSvP7M8u_TFKKC_tS54zHz5sIXaoDec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44099606 43619560 43079574 42809641 42679718
42549825 42699889 42999900 43539840 43779780
43939693

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:27:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080627
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-081200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...Northern Iowa...Southeast
South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080630Z - 081200Z

SUMMARY...Low-end flash flooding potential continues with
additional upstream development and repeating environment with
broad area of 1-2" totals with enhanced stripes of 2-3" embedded.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows fairly straight southwesterly
upper-level 100-110kts jet core from N CO/S WY across the ND/MN
line though the jet is also quite diffluent on the southern side
of the jet with best divergence maxima near the SE/IA/MN line
which is just downshear of an embedded shortwave approaching from
central NEB. As such, the low level flow has responded with 850mb
speed max of 50kts starting to intersect with a stronger cluster
of cells. The interaction has broadened into a west to east warm
advection wing with additional deep layer convergence expanding
convective development downstream across the MN/IA boarder (noted
by overshooting tops in the broadening cirrus canopy with -75C
temps). Additionally, low level moisture has pooled due to this
convergence with overall values nearing 2".

A broader axis of conditionally unstable air is oriented more
north to south with core of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across E NEB into NE
SD, though expanding eastward across S MN/N IA with sufficient
values 1250-1500 J/kg noted in RAP analysis to help maintain
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. Additional
upstream development across the Sand Hills of north-central NEB
near the shortwave will also lift into the western edge of the
ongoing convective area to repeat or potentially merge with
ongoing activity across SE SD. Scattered 1.75-2"/hr rates
embedded within the broader line of 1-1.5"/hr rates and generally
veered 700-400mb steering flow to support a broader area of
additional 1-2" totals with embedded streaks of 2-3" where
repeating/training or strongest cores could reside a bit longer.

Hydrologically, heavy rainfall over the last few days (including
heavy rainfall tonight over SE SD) have further reduced FFG values
across the area with an axis extending from Gregory/Charles Mix
county to NW IA with hourly FFG below 1.5" and 3hr below 2",
though this extends further across S MN/N IA with <2"/hr or
<2.5/3hrs as far east as Dodge/Mower, MN and Floyd county, IA.
As such, scattered incidents of localized flash flooding will
remain possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5THet9MGgR6pStNJWnP2g9OI2OMW2IpZoz62qTr0ueBsi9jjKyyqPxMFKtsKMatdKPDufiZ9vkq9kmKRxYYk5KyzGOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44259461 44169323 43579245 43139259 42809334
42599425 42499591 42509741 42699861 42959915
43419896 44019739 44169627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 20:50:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082049
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-090245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1224
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082047Z - 090245Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO over the next 6
hours. Peak hourly rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected but
with 15 minute rainfall up to 1 inch within the stronger/slowest
moving cells.

DISCUSSION...2030Z visible satellite imagery and area radar
imagery showed scattered monsoonal convection underway across the
higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim into the elevated terrain of
far southeastern AZ into NM. Total PWs across AZ/NM were fairly
similar as of 20Z, compared to this same time yesterday, with
standardized anomalies of +1 to +2. SPC mesoanalysis from 20Z and
18Z soundings from EPZ and ABQ showed instability was primarily
focused from far southeastern AZ into southern and eastern NM with
500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. The synoptic scale mid to upper-level
ridge was centered over KS/MO with the southwestern extension
across south-central AZ/NM, a bit north compared to yesterday at
this time, resulting in a broader coverage of weak deeper layer
mean flow of ~10 kt or less across NM/AZ.

Some minor westward expansion of the 500+ J/kg MLCAPE line is
expected over the next few hours with continued daytime heating
beneath mostly clear skies. Thunderstorm development will continue
to expand along areas of higher terrain before moving into some of
the lower elevations, driven by the mean steering flow and outflow
propagation from storm clusters that develop.

While an evolution similar to Monday is expected due to the fairly
similar parameters in place, locally greater coverage of 1+ inch
rainfall will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains into the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains due to weak steering currents
oriented parallel to the terrain and weakly backed low level flow
over eastern to southeastern NM. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is
expected within the stronger cores along with potential for 15
minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches. Any flash flooding that
occurs is expected to be isolated in coverage with impacts to low
water crossings, arroyos and locations of poor drainage. Spotty
total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with isolated 2+
inch totals possible through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7zS6Zm3gDfXshvtrpaz2BQ44zrWIOjy9mMZsQS4uyf58LHJV53ULlYylbaiJxoKiHASanANWJHMG5fpiUgyZRW0EVSw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37620374 37620296 37590229 37160210 36690301
35610408 34730484 32980542 31680647 31180795
31170899 31140991 31191047 31361105 31931111
32541082 33151054 33681029 34120989 34290919
34600848 35190771 35830706 36460624 37070564
37430503 37570444

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 22:59:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082258
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-090455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
657 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern NE into IA and southwestern
WI/northwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082256Z - 090455Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is expected to become likely across
portions of central IA this evening into early tonight, with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and 6-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches
(isolated higher rates/totals possible). Surrounding locations of
eastern NE into southwestern WI and northwestern IL may also
experience flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...2230Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed
scattered thunderstorms extending along a surface
trough/differential heating boundary that extended from central IA
into southeastern NE, located southeast of a larger scale
quasi-stationary front. Outflow was observed to be slowly
propagating southward/southeastward across southeastern NE into
southwestern IA. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms were located
north of this region from eastern NE into north-central IA. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg
along and just south of the trough/differential heating boundary
along with a bubble of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE in south-central IA.

Short term forecasts from the RAP suggest that the low level jet
will begin to increase across eastern KS into northwestern
MO/southern IA around 00Z, with S to SSW 850 mb wind speeds
expected to reach 30-40 kt by 04Z. The increasing overrunning
component of the low level flow will support the continued
development of nocturnal thunderstorms from eastern NE into
central IA and downstream locations of WI/IL. Storm motions are
expected to parallel an axis of low level convergence, supporting
training rounds of heavy rain, containing hourly rainfall of 1 to
2+ inches.

Portions of western IA have received 3 to 6+ inches of rain over
the past 2-3 days which has increased soil moisture values and
reduced infiltration capabilities of additional heavy rainfall.
Flash flood guidance (FFG) for this portion of IA was 1.5 to 2.5
inches in 3 hours with surrounding areas to the west and east
containing 3-hr FFG values of about 2-3 inches. While the location
of the southern-most overrunning boundary and low level jet
orientation may focus the heaviest rainfall east of the lower FFG
values of western IA, the setup still appears likely to favor
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding later tonight.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7U2woauqqyLtW7aizDxlTOhuQ-cobZUhT-eKY6wyhN1u8NlZX7FKwjxqGvzK4ddY0XxEPPftN5DUwPTdlxjnR_e_uk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...GID...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43309046 43238981 42758932 42208956 41668991
40979173 40589522 40769728 41389776 41889745
42279616 42529425 43019188

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 00:45:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090044
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-090635-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1226
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090042Z - 090635Z

SUMMARY...Brief training and hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches may
result in isolated flash flooding from portions of eastern CO into
western KS through 06Z.

DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite and radar imagery from KPUX showed
showers and thunderstorms moving east off of the central Rockies
into the High Plains as of 0020Z with the strongest region across
northern Pueblo County with cloud tops that continued to expand
and cool. 00Z surface observations showed southeastern to eastern
CO was in a post-frontal environment with easterly/upslope flow in
place. KPUX VAD wind and RAP analysis data showed that the
easterly winds of 10-20 kt extended up 4-5 kft above the surface,
veering toward a unidirectional WSW direction in the mid to upper
levels.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 00Z showed MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg from
southeastern CO into western KS (highest to east) but with at
least weak CIN over the entire region. However, as
showers/thunderstorms continue to advance farther east into the
High Plains, moistening of lower level profiles within the upslope
flow may help the development of pockets of uninhibited elevated
instability across portions of eastern CO into western KS.
Kinematic profiles suggest that individual cells and/or any
clustering of storms should translate eastward at a progressive
pace. However, there is some potential for convective development
out ahead of any thunderstorm activity advancing eastward through
southeastern CO, setting up potential for short term training. The
environment will be capable of 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall and
the isolated potential for 2-3 inch totals. Given the fairly low
flash flood guidance values of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours over
much of eastern CO into western KS, an isolated exceedance or two
may occur through about 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Vy-o45OKAmKHm1RHLCH4MbdLH-5WHCqc4nEayHTq1fmntn6iz2S2eYRcijVdhWxFbiV8GcRZRet95GrwwoQMKSAaig$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39360165 39120132 38650129 38060186 37750255
37540372 37560471 37980513 38430512 38750482
39050409 39350269

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 04:52:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090452
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-091030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1227
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southern Iowa...Northwest
Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090450Z - 091030Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding potential continues. New
upstream development shows potential for repeating across areas
recently affected with additional 2-3" totals. Leading edge,
higher rates may still pose localized risk due to higher 2"/hr
rates.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR shows elongated convective complex
across much of Iowa, with leading bow echo near a meso-low along
the Mississippi River southwest of the Quad Cities remains fairly
potential with strong moisture flux convergence helping to broaden
the width of the bow for increased overall duration while it still
remains forward propagating. However, it is starting to move into
a more stable regime over N IL where inflow is less humid/unstable
with lower 60s Tds likely to be fed into the complex. Still a
hour or so more of 1.5-2"/hr rates may result in localized urban
flooding concerns. However, the upstream environment remains
conditionally unstable with solid isentropic ascent pattern for
continued development.

However, much of the environment has stabilized, there does remain
some increased unstable air between frontal zones across southern
NEB and through IA which is intersected by a north-south axis of
500-1000 J/kg of CAPE across western MO along an older frontal
zone, with total PWats over 2". CIRA LPW shows most of this area
as the enhanced moisture stream connected to the Pacific
sub-tropics along the northwest edge of the larger scale ridge
with very high moisture denoted in the 700-500mb layer along with
surface to 850mb showing higher values (Tds in the low to mid
70s). However, south of the front lower Tds and a wedge of drier
air can be seen through the 850-700 and 700-500mb across SE KS
through KC Metro toward N MO; so though stronger confluent 850mb
flow is the driver of isentropic ascent there may be some negative
dry air entrainment into the cells. This may be the reason for
the more stringy/tendril appearance to the convective cells across
W IA. Still, the length of the axis with embedded stronger cores
in an ideal training (west to east) environment with strong
southwest to southerly deep layer convergence should still
maintain the scattered ascent pattern with repeating elements
across S IA to be expected. Overall rates given some of the dry
air entrainment may be a bit more limited than seen earlier with
the initial line, but scattered 1.25-1.5" streaks and 1-3 hours of
repeating across areas having received 1-3" may start to exceed
the longer 3-6 hr FFG values which are 2-3" or 3-4", respectively.
As such, localized flash flooding may be possible but likely
limited in overall areal coverage and be more widely scattered in
nature through early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_QVqTvHVVyVCfZXYPqai_9cP5lpo54kumZvFOfXYHSySz5S9-vtkaylP9ioM_P65MEnN6CZW4TeDnzgbtU-yAlLJJwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42149161 42089051 41858979 41418965 40998998
40649070 40589212 40599417 40629568 40719654
41069691 41559656 41829554 41929443 42059296
42109232 42109202

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 09:27:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090927
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1228
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southern Iowa...Northern Missouri...Northwest Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090930Z - 091500Z

SUMMARY...Repeating scattered shallow thunderstorms with ability
for 1.5"/hr and additional 1.5-2.5" totals continue to pose
possible isolated to widely scattered low-end flash flooding,
mainly as cells move into areas less affected further south.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um WV suite continues to show a persistent
WSW to ENE corridor of enhanced deep layer moisture along the
northwest edge of synoptic ridge that dominates the
Mid-Mississippi and Southeast. Additionally, a northern stream
shortwave is digging through the Dakotas with an attendant cold
front through MN to NW IA into Nebaska; further narrowing/
corralling the deep layer moisture axis. RAP analysis and GPS
data shows core of 2-2.25" total PWATs remain over SE NEB into W
IA though localized profiles and CIRA LPW continue to show a core
of drier air along the SW interface of the subtropical moisture
plume from E KS toward NE MO. Still, strong confluent low level
jet from 30-40kts from 850-700mb continues to support isentropic
ascent and upstream convergence for upstream redevelopment, though
there are some hints that 700mb winds are veering a bit further
suggesting eastward motion of the is redevelopment region may be
expected over the next few hours.

The upwind environment also appears to have retained some unmixed, conditionally unstable air with axis of 750-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
generally coincident with moisture axis. Some air appears to be
overturning with new scattered development over far SE NEB into SW South-central IA with new scattered/cooling tops noted in 10.3um
EIR imagery. This is similar along the main training axis further
north over E NEB into W IA, though coverage is more scattered in
nature than earlier overnight. Downstream the lack of remaining
instability due to multiple rounds appears to be leading to
general warming and broadening of more moderate shield
precipitation across central to E IA, though regional RADAR shows
some stronger bowing segments into SE IA. As such, rain rates
will be further reducing to 1-1.3"/hr with a few occasional
transient spots of 1.5"+/hr possible.

As such, a streak or two of 1.5-2.5" in 2-3 hours will remain
possible. This may still intersect the recently saturated/flooded
areas along and just south of I-80 though trends suggest the best
remaining instability and moisture convergence would be a county
or two south where higher FFG and drier ground conditions exist
more likely resulting in beneficial rains. However, any
intersection with more saturated areas, including from prior days
(SW IA into far NW MO) still present a low-end potential of
exceedance for isolated to widely scattered but localized
incidents of flash flooding through early daybreak.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8YVkdUHPERZ1bzOAcjyjTWEf6SK_TRgaXU6hp4HKgP5dv3PzI7djKmcuAxgr6ZlqOKNEhh9rYrgN-GhcjkDBZJvdO90$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41809129 41649010 41258940 40718947 40269033
40139239 40099431 40079643 40209714 40949713
41319524 41589347 41749205

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 20:34:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092034
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-100230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1229
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into NM and adjacent High Plains
of CO, OK, TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092031Z - 100230Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms may result in a few areas of
flash flooding from portions of southeastern AZ into NM and the
adjacent High Plains of CO, OK and TX through the early evening.
Peak hourly rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and 15-minute rain rates
of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...2010Z visible satellite imagery and area radar
imagery showed scattered thunderstorms over the southern Colorado
Plateau from eastern AZ into central NM as well as the southern
Rockies down to the Sacramento Mountains. Water vapor imagery
showed an elongated mid to upper-level ridge over the southern
tier of the U.S. containing two centers, one of which was centered
over eastern AZ into western NM. RAP analysis data showed 850-300
mb mean layer winds of less than 5 kt beneath the ridge center
with less than 10 kt elsewhere across much of AZ/NM, supportive of
slow cell movement. Blended TPW imagery showed that precipitable
water values were similar to a couple of tenths of an inch higher
compared to 24 hours ago (especially over central NM and
southwestern AZ), translating into standardized anomalies of +1 to
+2.5 for the region. SPC mesoanalyses and 18Z soundings from EPZ,
ABQ and FGZ showed MLCAPE was a little bit higher than 24 hours
ago, with greater coverage of 500 to 1000 J/kg from northeastern
to southwestern NM into parts of southern AZ.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to blossom across the higher
terrain over the next couple of hours with slow cell movement
following the deeper layer mean flow. Short term forecasts show
the ridge center sliding westward later today into western AZ as a
shortwave advances southeastward across the northern Great Basin
into the central Rockies. This ridge orientation is expected to
shift the steering flow to more of a northerly direction along the
AZ/NM border with northeasterly to easterly flow across
southeastern AZ.

Increasing storm coverage should allow for congealing of storms
into a few quasi-organized clusters with outflow advancing and
initiating new development of cells. Expectations are for monsoon
activity to advance into southern NM/southeastern AZ beyond 00Z
while lingering into portions of northeastern NM, with dissipation
over the Colorado Plateau. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected with 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches (locally
higher), supporting the potential for localized flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!85IsKGvsLxswHzEA_XFYPFs46i0temSJsuL1hfFdc3He56QY6FPlbQXQk12pTroMx3mA58Nj9RWqA62nIF93BP8csm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37270381 36920229 36500204 35790237 35160317
34750418 34010490 32610534 31960555 31370630
31500754 31460797 31080810 31020858 30951086
31121161 32071173 33631130 34111055 34760885
35810683 36970534

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 22:02:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092201
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-100355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1230
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...eastern OH, far northern WV, western PA into
central NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092158Z - 100355Z

SUMMARY...As a broken axis of thunderstorms advances southeastward
through OH/WV/PA/NY, embedded short term training may result in a
few areas of flash flooding through 04Z (midnight EDT). Peak
hourly rainfall is generally expected to range from 1 to 2 inches,
although hourly totals above 2 inches will be possible should
ideal training materialize.

DISCUSSION...2130Z radar imagery showed a broken axis of
thunderstorms extending from north-central OH into northwestern PA
and western NY, advancing toward the southeast into an unstable
airmass containing 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (via 21Z SPC mesoanalysis
data). The storms were located just ahead of a pre-frontal
convergence axis positioned well ahead of a cold front over Lower
Michigan. Moisture across OH into western NY was anomalous (2-3
standard deviations above the mean) with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches (via the latest GPS data). The high
moisture has resulted in observed 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches to the south of Medina, OH between 2030Z and 2130Z.
However, the progression of cells has limited total rainfall to
less than 1.5 inches thus far.

While the 12Z HREF and rapidly updating HRRR/RRFS model data
hasn't had a good handle on the timing/placement of storms as of
21Z, there is good model agreement for the evolution and
progression of storms to advance southeastward through OH,
northern WV, PA and western/central NY within the available
instability axis. Sufficient bulk shear/instability values across
the region could support organized cells but both ordinary to
right-moving supercell vectors are progressive from the west to
northwest at 20-40 kt.

The concern for flash flooding arises as storms likely continue to
expand and advance downstream. Outflow propagation out ahead of
the broken axis of storms could allow for brief alignment with the
mean steering flow, supporting short term training of cells and
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. An isolated instance of 2+ inches
of rain in an hour will also be possible. The result will be
pockets of total rainfall between 1 to 3 inches through 04Z with
the potential for flash flooding across areas of sensitive terrain
or urban areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!65rb_Bt4ALIMhED6Q_0Y2sfb1rJrwHVuKR35JqSD7ktb_PDgc2N-jGVd24sko1lThm10PIzH8i2h8WPaowoddn7D1fY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43127584 42827485 41977505 40697781 39917967
39298152 39388383 40188414 40998258 41948067
42667873 42967753

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 23:02:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092302
FFGMPD
CAZ000-100400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1231
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092300Z - 100400Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding may develop along portions of
the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA into the
southern Sierra Nevada through this evening. Peak hourly rainfall
over 1 inch will be possible with 1-2 inch totals through 04Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible imagery and regional radar
reflectivity as of 2240Z showed isolated showers/thunderstorms
over eastern Tulare County of the Sierra Nevada and along the
Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, with attempts at additional
development with areas of towering cumulus. The environment across
southern CA contained highly anomalous moisture with the 12Z
soundings from NKX and VBG showing precipitable water values at or
above the SPC climatological max for early September. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE of approximately 500-1000
J/kg over Orange, San Diego and western Riverside counties with
lower values of near 100-250 J/kg into Ventura County where a pair
of backbuilding cells was located.

While forcing is weak, outside of the elevated heat sources of the
mountains, southern CA's placement beneath the western edge of a
mid to upper-level ridge has resulted in very slow cell motions of
about 5 kt. With still some time for daytime heating, additional shower/thunderstorm development will be possible over the next
couple of hours with potential for peak hourly rainfall over 1
inch and totals of 1-2 inches from the southern Sierra Nevada into
the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges. Any cells are expected to
remain isolated to terrain features.

Most of the CAM guidance suite has had a good handle on the
ongoing activity but the coverage of heavy rain due to isolated thunderstorms/showers should remain low. However, within the lower
coverage of storms, there will be some limited potential for
hourly rainfall in excess of 1 inch and isolated flash flooding
potential. The loss of daytime heating after sunset should allow
any ongoing storms to rapidly dissipate.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4i2SwFimSURq6RuZGKc1xyuEOt81tNlJ6AJHLr0zvrQ4ifL96NpF8RaArEeWCBS-oHTwBe9hb_ZDgITpHdSsW6eyP98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36831824 36611802 35811797 35441817 35191827
35041842 34921846 34811839 34751822 34701798
34641776 34571746 34541721 34491696 34451679
34381655 34331635 34261609 34111584 34001565
33861555 33761554 33691567 33691587 33771603
33861627 33861638 33771644 33631641 33471626
33331620 33201620 33041607 32971604 32711600
32601607 32531635 32521653 32581661 32901677
33311699 33551712 33851708 33951709 34061716
34111733 34121768 34181794 34241815 34331842
34411865 34431894 34461922 34521943 34601960
34671966 34801965 34901953 34961936 35001913
35021879 35291858 35651847 36261847 36491855
36761850

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 02:03:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100202
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1232
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Ohio Valley & Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100200Z - 100800Z

Summary...A band of showers and thunderstorms continues sagging
southward into the Ohio Valley. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding across partially saturated soils and rough topography.

Discussion...A line of showers and thunderstorms extends from
southeast IN into southwest PA with another segment with heavier
rainfall across north-central PA. Precipitable water values are
1.6-2.1" in this area per GPS data. CIN has set in and MUCAPE
across the region is 500+ J/kg in eastern areas and 2000+ J/kg in
western areas. Effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts has been
organizing convection. The thunderstorms lie within a confluent
zone/elevated front.

The guidance suggests that the thunderstorm activity should have
some longevity, particularly within areas with higher instability
which will take longer to erode closer to the central Ohio Valley.
Based on the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which would be more problematic
in the areas of lower flash flood guidance values across the Upper
OH Valley, which based on the mesoscale guidance would be sooner
rather than later. Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is
possible here.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_dTimXZPLePPP92jwhIjQvU5haqyEFNxElFhjg4F9AKl5FrrEEBQvsnEiiN8RehwyjQOEsl5Vxb5D6QnZMmFHcootec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40747967 40377843 38628060 37808569 39158559
39638338 40248131

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 02:11:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100211
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-100615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1233
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1010 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...far western TX into southwestern NM into
southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100209Z - 100615Z

SUMMARY...Lingering monsoon convection will maintain a localized
flash flood threat across portions of far western TX into
southwestern NM and southeastern AZ for another 3-4 hours. High
sub-hourly rain rates will produce isolated additional totals of 1
to 2 inches.

DISCUSSION...0150Z GOES infrared satellite and GLM imagery showed
scattered thunderstorms advancing south across southwestern NM and
WSW over southeastern AZ. Lingering instability of 500 to 1000
J/kg (locally higher as seen on the 00Z EPZ sounding) was located
from western TX into southwestern NM and portions of southeastern
AZ. The storms were moving generally south to southwest following
the deeper layer mean flow around a mid to upper level ridge
centered over west-central AZ. Cell motions were also following
outflow progression, as noted in western Cochise into eastern
Pima/Santa Cruz counties where 15-minute rainfall rates of 0.5 to
1.0 inches have been observed.

Expectations are for storms to continue advancing downstream
(west-southwest to southwest across southeastern AZ and southward
in NM) over the next few hours with localized high sub-hourly rain
rates. The available moisture (1.3 to 1.7 inch PWs per recent GPS
data) will continue to support localized 15-minute rainfall of 0.5
to 1.0 inches and isolated storm totals of 1 to 2 inches. These
higher rates may result in flooding of low lying and urban areas,
as well as other locations of poor drainage. Beyond 06Z, the flash
flood threat is expected to diminish due to a loss of instability
and/or translation of storms into Mexico.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4MBYep6csdfLkT20s-gcPSSrBUQWs6W1FKuOKDTXwshl4wOb3KzxAdmLj312m2Vd0EQ3VIYc8Ep-4BU4fOet0zA9dV8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33981082 33521038 33150975 32580939 32320879
32390831 32740744 32800707 32720657 32350573
31960541 31150579 31580683 31570783 31180804
31090867 31090952 31131083 31201136 31781164
32841163 33561147 33871121

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 02:58:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100258
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-100856-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...in and near portions of southeast CO & southwest
KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100256Z - 100856Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are slowly developing across
the area. Hourly rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could
lead to isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A substantial shortwave in the Westerlies is moving
through western WY & northwest CO at the present time, enhancing
upper level divergence in the Central High Plains. Meanwhile,
low-level upslope flow has brought precipitable water values up to
1.5-2", which is quite high for the High Plains. MU CAPE is ~2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25-35 kts. The mean 850-400 hPa
wind is out of the west at 5-10 kt, nearly antiparallel to the
current east-northeast surface flow. Thus far, the thunderstorms
that have been occasionally reorganizing and showing minimal
movement just north of a thermal boundary and east of a surface
wave, likely due to the conflicting winds with height.

The expectation is for cells to continue growing in coverage and
track eastward as the 700 hPa winds veer and the upper level
shortwave progresses. The mass of thunderstorms may drift
somewhat northward as the 700 hPa flow takes on more of a
southerly component. Given the parameters in place, hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible where cells
backbuild, train, or merge. Given the modest flash flood guidance
values, isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8dU3iENX6-Y-Z-DPMSnBTS_Ly5nHOLs1xA1Ma9ek9PURs5WYIxAZGIn1bykm-KFe2qgUqKN8OT8bqp_S-nNg_-kizCI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38640235 38190015 36849988 37170251 37160400
38330462

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 04:04:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100404
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-101002-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central Plains Into the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100402Z - 101002Z

Summary...Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
regionally into early Thursday morning. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Pockets of showers and thunderstorms have been moving
across MO, dropping local 2-5" of rain Wednesday afternoon and
evening. New thunderstorm activity has formed as of late back
across central and eastern KS. Regionally, there is a broad 850
hPa confluence zone/front aloft helping to lead to the convection.
Precipitable water values are 2-2.25". MU CAPE is 1000-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25-45 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS guidance indicates thunderstorms across MO
escape into northern KY, southern IL, and southern IN with time
while the KS activity broadens in scale and moves into MO.
Earlier heavy rainfall has lowered the three hour flash flood
guidance near the KS/MO border though values are moderate to high
elsewhere. The ingredients available support the idea of hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local totals to 4" being
possible. This would be where cell mergers, mesocyclones, or cell
training occurs. Areas with some soil saturation from earlier
today and urban areas would be most at risk for flash flooding.
Flash flood occurrences could be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4jCA4EqyHnfJxEJzWCpy4_xLF8bqAvxnCwiyrqXClHzj-7BM0tnS4Yvq2qaJZDX76N0OzedJUaO1vLwRjjPlzIXdCtg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...OUN... PAH...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39949231 38978724 37638661 37318930 37159179
37649340 36369532 36089703 37679963 39009691

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 07:09:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100709
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-101307-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1236
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100707Z - 101307Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue
across southern OH while other thunderstorms approach from
southern IL. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local
totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Partially surface-based thunderstorms have shown some
backbuilding and training character across southern OH as they
feed off a 1000+ J/kg MU CAPE pool near the tri-state border of
OH/IN/KY. Recent radar estimates were near 6" between Waverly
City and Jackson OH. Additional thunderstorms have been forming
as of late across north-central KY while an additional batch moves
in from southern IL. This is occurring within a zone of 850 hPa
confluence. Precipitable water values are 1.7-2.3" per GPS data.
Effective bulk shear remains 25-40 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS guidance were a county or two too far north with
the convection in southern OH and an hour too slow with the
activity moving across southern IL. The expectation is for
thunderstorm activity to try to bridge between these two
convective areas -- backbuilding from the east and progressing
from the west -- with the merged areas eventually dropping south
as the instability pool near the tri-state border erodes. It
appears the REFS has a better concept of this idea than the HREF
though it's probably a little too far north. In the meantime,
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and additional local totals to 4" are
possible, which could lead to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding, particularly in urban areas and locations with relief in
WV.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hsTWgOsR3v3BaC29V0lg6qg8s-mz0XiWcktLH1E5s1O13qnv--g_iAZSMcKBVPBlkCkRByg6NK0WiAJo9nCMVKwUDY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39488308 39208144 38578011 37908098 37588255
37248538 37638925 38748905 38998779 38868600

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 08:25:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100825
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-101423-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1237
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...in and near KS & MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100823Z - 101423Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to
persist past sunrise. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional
local totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding where soils are saturating and in urban areas.

Discussion...A couple batches of thunderstorms lurk near the
southern border of CO/KS and from southeast KS into western MO.
These storms are near a confluence zone at 850 hPa, generally
elevated over a surface thermal boundary stretching near the 37th
parallel near the KS/OK and MO/AR borders. Rainfall over the past
28 hours is estimated as high as 8" near Mound City KS per doppler
radar, implying saturating soils. Precipitable water values range
from 1.5" in the Central High Plains to 2-2.5" farther east closer
to sea level. Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts. MU CAPE is
roughly 1000-2000 J/kg.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that both batches of convection
should persist past sunrise, with the CO/KS area dropping
east-southeast into northern OK while the KS/western MO activity
edges southward, making minimal eastward progress as a hole in the
instability pool across portions of MO broadens due to convection
increasing stability with time. Hourly rainfall amounts to 2.5"
with additional local totals to 4" are possible where mesocyclones
form, cell training occurs, and cell mergers happen. Flash flood
guidance continues to lower over portions of MO due to slowly
saturating soils. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding
are possible where soils are saturating and urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5BypAErjoJ57U3gcoQwyt1iIhHJQcBMlQbU3VZltj0vJLi-m2Y9SD-h2ovnT7o5DChzfA-iYgOjONOWbhDLG2ImZF-I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...GLD...ICT...LSX...OUN...PAH... PUB...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39629195 38919000 38298950 37938984 37449243
35319656 36590118 37000242 37370321 37970332
38660253 38800205 38420060 38209962 38239844
38539749 39079561 39619361

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 08:54:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100854
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101452-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1238
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100852Z - 101452Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are forming near and offshore
the coasts of southeast LA, MS, AL, and the western FL Panhandle.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding, primarily in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low was spotted on GOES-19 imagery
offshore Galveston TX, while an upper level shear line was
apparent over southernmost AL and southern MS. A surface
circulation was apparent in the oil rig observations to the
south-southeast of Galliano LA. CIN has been eroding across the
region over the past several hours. Precipitable water values are
2-2.2" per GPS data. The Central Gulf Coast lies in an
instability gradient north of the warm Gulf, with an ML CAPE
bubble of 3000 J/kg offshore southeast LA. Effective bulk shear
of 25 kts is not far away to the northwest of Lake Pontchartrain.

A zone of 850 hPa confluence is expected to remain near the
Central Gulf Coast over the next six hours. The mesoscale
guidance signal for heavy rain shifts westward from near
Pensacola, where some thunderstorms recently went inland, along
the AL and MS coasts to Southeast LA by 11z. Thunderstorms moving
inland should sharpen the instability gradient to the immediate
coast/swamp margin over time. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible where cells merge or manage to train. Urban areas would
be most sensitive to the incoming heavy rainfall. Flash flooding
instances are expected to be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!711Y8Qqkwogr24OKlxi61AkyHaOOVoA63NLteF2KMmDapYsEUhcH6fq6eKw_FhMKQB0cjYbynECB5bDyH90bZuRo8gI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30958862 30958706 30358630 30098779 30068855
29568890 29318895 28878902 28958941 29188970
29009032 29169040 29089078 29239121 30109076
30539017

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 12:51:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101250
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1239
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern KY...Southern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101249Z - 101700Z

SUMMARY...Additional broken areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected this morning. A generally localized
threat for flash flooding will continue.

DISCUSSION...The mid-morning radar and satellite imagery shows
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing across
portions of the OH Valley, with some of the more organized
activity and colder convective tops situated across north-central
to northeast KY and into south-central WV. This activity is
associated with a series of smaller-scale vorts that are still
interacting with a moist and relatively unstable airmass across
the broader OH Valley region.

MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are still in place with PWs of
1.75 to 2.0 inches. The moisture and instability transport is
still being aided by a westerly low-level jet of 30+ kts, and this
broader warm air advection along with fairly stronger convergence
still focused along the leading outflow boundary activity should
still tend to help focus some localized persistence of convection
through the midday hours.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some additional localized storm totals of
2 to 3 inches will be possible. This activity will mostly be south
of the overnight/early morning activity that impacted southeast OH
and into parts of western WV, but the additional rainfall in the
short-term should tend to be aligned across areas of central and
eastern KY and into southern WV.

The FFG values acros these areas are a bit higher, with less soil moisture/streamflow sensitivities right now by comparison, but
with the locally repeated nature of some of the convection and
some of the rugged terrain, a localized threat of flash flooding
will exist through midday.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4x3AHFq7RW9kHyO0nNu8T2DlD5rHX84LjtWXbCiI_NMfMNkoDbnodh4NuoC8Qcs5NlCOkJLT3JwT1HlzrkQND511LA4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38698178 38578068 38238021 37828028 37528085
37278217 37148344 37218491 37538555 38028543
38398487 38648344

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 23:07:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102307
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102304Z - 110400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving into an area
of compromised soils due to recent heavy rain may result in areas
of renewed flash flooding through early tonight across portions of
the upper OH Valley. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...2245Z radar imagery showed a recent uptick in the
intensity of rainfall across the southern third of OH into central
WV. These storms were occurring within weakly confluent low level
flow, located out ahead of a west-east oriented cold front to the
north. Blended TPW imagery showed an axis of anomalous
precipitable water values extending through the OH Valley with
values of 1.7 to 2.0 inches reaching back into the middle MS
Valley. MLCAPE over the upper OH Valley was estimated to be weak,
only 500-1000 J/kg per recent SPC and RAP mesoanalysis data but
the high moisture will help to compensate for the weak instability
to support hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches.

Portions of northeastern KY into southern/eastern OH and western
PA/WV received 3 to 6+ inches of rain over the past 24 hours which
has broadly lowered flash flood guidance values for the region to
about 1 in/hr. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible
where cells align with the mean westerly steering flow, supporting
at least brief periods of training. A few embedded pockets of
heavy rain from efficient showers/thunderstorms will likely
continue to affect portions of the upper OH Valley over the next
few hours with RAP forecasts showing the weakly confluent flow in
the lower levels (and instability) translating south with time.
Augmenting larger scale ascent will be the right entrance region
of a departing upper level jet max over southern Ontario. While
coverage of heavy rain may be limited in coverage, the recent
heavy rain and sensitive terrain of the region raises enough of a
concern to highlight the increased flash flood potential over the
next 3-5 hours. Isolated storm totals up to ~3 inches will be
possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_0uqfvapiomYXyV1OSs90MxqWhTiF2w-8RJIVmdb3cN_krLo8o0UTjlOrdnWPGbM8tnIQn28tJ4ehtMlPPE0jy1sV-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40528111 40327951 38678026 38238348 38458455
39368461 39748316

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 01:22:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110122
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-110700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1242
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
921 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...AR into portions of the MS Valley into western
KY/northwestern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110120Z - 110700Z

SUMMARY...Through 07Z, increasing thunderstorm coverage is
expected to lead to increased flash flood potential from AR into
portions of the lower/middle MS Valley into western KY and
northwestern TN. Training of heavy rain is expected to lead to
hourly totals of 1 to 2 inches along with 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals through 07Z (isolated higher rates/totals possible).

DISCUSSION...01Z surface observations showed an effective frontal
boundary that extended from the eastern KY/TN border into western
TN, central AR and southeastern OK. This boundary was largely
outflow driven from afternoon/evening storms with temperatures in
the upper 80s/lower 90s to its south, with 70s and 80s to its
north. Water vapor imagery showed a positively tilted mid/upper
shortwave trough from northeastern KS into the TX Panhandle,
amplifying and advancing eastward. The region from AR into
northwestern TN and western KY contained high precipitable water
values of 1.7 to 2.1 inches per recent blended TPW imagery and 00Z
soundings from LZK and ILN. Instability was mixed across the
region with 500 to 2000+ J/kg and inhibition also varied (per SPC mesoanalysis).

As the upstream shortwave approaches over the next 3-6 hours, the
low level response at 850 mb will be for increasing southerly to
southwesterly winds of about 10 to 20 kt from southeastern OK into
TN/KY. Overrunning of the effective front is expected to support
low level moisture advection, a reduction of CIN and the
increasing coverage of thunderstorms overnight with mean steering
flow oriented similarly to the orientation of the front. Lift is
expected to be augmented within the right entrance region of a
modest upper level jet max to the north. Due to the anomalous
moisture in place, training cells should easily support hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated values above 2 inches in
an hour possible.

Most of the region has lacked notable rainfall over the past week
(at least a week) with fairly high flash flood guidance values of
about 3 to 4+ inches in 3 hours. Therefore, should flash flooding
develop overnight, areas will likely be confined to urban areas or
other locations of poor drainage. 6-hour rainfall totals of 2 to
4+ inches are expected through ~07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7hvxp37WX8bQSef69jOzFaJ0W2QhOu9F9sb1WKTLAdtjAJqjI4VMPDDFfG7fKXPZv6ElGl9yUNI5qq0z1LUMaWT4imM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37828696 37578627 36868571 36378566 35938652
35149093 34869398 35039449 35739455 36309359
37019146 37488955 37818807

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 03:29:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110328
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-110826-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1243
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1127 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110326Z - 110826Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding
over partially saturated soils near the OH/WV/KY border towards
09z. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" remain possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of
a declining instability pool across portions of southern OH and WV
within a zone of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values of
1.8-2.1" exist here per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 40 kts
is leading to some level of organization. Activity continues to
be surface-based; ML CAPE across eastern KY and southwest WV is
500-1000 J/kg.

The guidance shows a signal for heavy rainfall in this region
towards 09z. Portions of the area have seen local maxima in the
6-9" range since Wednesday afternoon, at least partially
saturating area soils. With the available ingredients supporting
hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" where cells can manage to train
and/or backbuild, flash flooding remains possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6fExhWYNgp3aGXYLjf3_wwXtxqvi72tXnhLR7lvwTzYfGFOtSa4601_7whkeFtTI58qKMzvuW_QH8xm76sIstYsOfyk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448249 39107963 38238023 37758100 37488338
38218425 39268460

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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