Forum: War Ensemble BBS

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 06:06:32 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 310606
SWODY2
SPC AC 310604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of
New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may
also extend westward into Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will prevail over the central MS Valley to the
central Appalachians while a negatively tilted upper trough
amplifies over the Interior West tomorrow (Tuesday). Multiple
mid-level impulses will pivot around the upper ridge, from the
central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, supporting multiple thunderstorm
clusters all along the ridge. Across the Northeast, multiple
pronounced mid-level impulses, preceded by seasonably cooler
mid-level temperatures and stronger westerly flow atop rich
low-level moisture, will promote strong thunderstorm potential, some
of which may be severe. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also
possible along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Midwest to
Great Lakes.

...Parts of the Northeast...
Weak surface troughing will develop across the lower Hudson Valley,
along with the development of a diffuse warm front beneath the
northeast periphery of the upper ridge. Guidance currently suggests
that at least two impulses may support thunderstorm development over
southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. The first and
more subtle impulse will overspread the region during the day,
accompanied by enough upper support to promote sparse thunderstorm
development over the tri-state area. By afternoon, 7 C/km mid-level
lapse rates will overspread 70s F surface dewpoints, resulting in
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast
soundings also show appreciably curved, sizeable low-level
hodographs. As such, a couple of supercells will be possible,
accompanied by a risk of severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.

Later overnight, the approach of a more pronounced mid-level impulse
is expected. As this occurs, thunderstorms should develop around the
Great Lakes and traverse the upper ridge, moving southeast toward
the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Despite nocturnal cooling, the rich
moisture in place will limit stabilization to a degree. Should
stronger storms persist, a few instances of severe wind and hail are
possible, especially over central and southern PA.

...Portions of the Central Plains to Great Lakes...
One mid-level impulse will eject into the central Plains while
another low-amplitude upper trough traverses the Great Lakes through
the period. By evening, a weak surface cyclone will develop over the
central Plains while a diffuse warm front becomes situated over
northeastern NE to central WI. Surface dewpoints may reach up to the
mid 70s F along portions of this warm front, yielding over 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE over several locales given 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
overspreading this boundary. A belt of 50+ kt west-southwesterly 500
mb flow may also overlap with the aforementioned mid-level lapse
rates given the approach of the embedded impulse, supporting 40-50
kts of effective bulk shear and modestly curved/elongated
hodographs.

Given the strong overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, any
storm that can mature and become sustained may become multicellular
or supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. At the
moment, storm coverage should be sparse, since upper support with
the Great Lakes mid-level trough should only graze the warm frontal
zone, and the approach of the central Plains impulse should occur
late in the period. Therefore, despite the favorable convective
environment, probabilities have been maintained at Category
1/Marginal Risk.

... Southern TX/LA...
Tropical cyclone formation is possible within the next 48 hours
along the LA coastline (please see the National Hurricane Center
Outlooks for more details). This disturbance will continue to track west-northwestward along the LA/TX coastlines through Tuesday.
Vertical shear profiles accompanying this disturbance are forecast
to be quite weak, precluding tornado probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 17:34:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...AND FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of
New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may
also extend westward into Nebraska.

...Much of Southern NY and PA...NJ...Lower Hudson Valley...
Scattered morning thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
region Tuesday morning, as westerly low-level winds maintain a
theta-e plume. This activity is likely to wane throughout the day as
low pressure redevelops over NY. Destabilization will occur
generally near and west of the Hudson River, with MLCAPE averaging
3000 J/kg. This will also occur beneath midlevel northwesterly winds
near 40 kt.

Storms are expected to redevelop along the effective warm front,
perhaps over the lower Hudson Valley, and these would likely move
southeast/to south with hail and localized damaging wind potential.
Other activity may develop over northeast PA/NJ near the surface
low, and, farther upstream near the Lower Great Lakes. Low-level
shear will be greatest near the Hudson Valley and the instability
gradient, and this increased shear could support a brief tornado.

...NE into southern MN & WI...
A lead wave is forecast to move out of CO and across NE, SD, and MN
Tuesday. Midlevel winds are forecast to strengthen into the 40-50 kt
range, though temperatures aloft will not cool much. Meanwhile, a
stalled font will extend roughly from central NE into IA. Strong
heating and boundary layer mixing will occur south of this front,
where dewpoints should hold in the 60s F. The result will be a zone
of moderate instability and shear, conditionally favoring supercells
with large hail and locally damaging gusts.

Storms may develop during near the boundary and farther south near a
surface low over NE as strongly heated air mass develops. Due to
uncertainty in storm coverage, will maintain 5% severe
probabilities.

...Upper TX Coast...
Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 is forecast to move toward the Upper TX
Coast on Tuesday. Wind fields are forecast to remain relatively
concentrated, and not particularly strong. As such, tornado
potential appears low at this time. Subsequent forecasts cycles will
continue to monitor the potential for stronger-than-forecast shear
and possible introduction of 2% tornado probabilities.

..Jewell.. 08/31/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 06:00:38 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic through the day Wednesday. Severe
gusts are the main threat, though some hail or a tornado or two
could occur. A few severe gusts are also possible over northern
Montana Wednesday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will stall over the TN Valley, with a low-amplitude
mid-level trough poised to traverse the ridge and overspread
portions of the Northeast tomorrow (Wednesday). Meanwhile, an upper
trough will amplify across the Interior West. At the surface, a
trough will become established across the Hudson Valley area,
promoting enough lift for ascent amid a moist and unstable low-level
airmass, supporting strong to severe thunderstorm development.
Likewise, deep-layer forcing for ascent and colder temperatures
aloft will accompany a pronounced mid-level impulse rotating around
the Interior West upper trough, promoting isolated severe potential
across portions of northern MT.

...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic...
A complex severe weather setup will exist across the eastern Great
Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic through the entire period (12Z Wednesday
morning to 12Z Thursday morning). Guidance consensus continues to
depict a primary mid-level impulse and accompanying 50+ kt 500 mb
jet max overspreading the Hudson Valley during the day. 70+ F
surface dewpoints beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will yield
2500+ J/kg MLCAPE from eastern Lower Michigan to at least as far
east as central PA by afternoon peak heating. The overspreading
mid-level jet max will also encourage 40-50 kts of effective bulk
shear and modestly curved, elongated hodographs. Such conditions
will foster the potential for supercells and bowing segments
accompanied by a severe gust threat, along with isolated instances
of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

The primary concern with this meteorological setup will be the
timing and placement of thunderstorm clusters, which will ultimately
determine the severity and coverage of convective hazards. CAMs
widely vary in their solutions regarding the outcome of this event,
with some models showing early day bow echo potential and others
holding off on the main round of storms until after dark. Given the
ambient supporting environment, there may be a need for introducing
higher severe probabilities with CIG1. However, this scenario is
highly dependent on the timing of organized storms relative to the
diurnal cycle, a detail better resolved with a full suite of convection-allowing guidance. If storms are poorly timed with the
diurnal cycle (including an overturning of the warm sector during
early afternoon), severe probabilities may even need to be reduced
in places. Given the inherent lack of predictability that often
accompanies subtly forced ridging environments, prudence was
exercised in withholding higher severe probabilities this outlook.

...Portions of northern Montana...
A surface trough will deepen across central and northern MT with the south-southwestward approach of the mid-level impulse embedded
within broader upper troughing. As this occurs, a band of showers
and thunderstorms will develop along an arcing cold front poised to
sweep across the region. Ahead of the storms/front, surface
temperatures will warm into the 80s F, amid dewpoints at or below 40
F, resulting in a well-mixed boundary layer extending to the 600-500
mb layer. Furthermore, strong unidirectional (southwesterly) flow
through a deep layer will promote 20-30 kts of effective bulk/speed
shear, with multicells the main storm mode expected. Efficient
evaporative cooling (given the deep and dry boundary layer) will
promote the potential for widely scattered severe gusts with the
stronger storms.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 17:40:08 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 011732
SWODY2
SPC AC 011730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and
a few tornadoes may also occur. Widely scattered severe gusts and
more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the
northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into
night.

...Synopsis...

A belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level winds will spread from the Great Lakes
into the Northeast in tandem with a series of low-amplitude
disturbances. Elsewhere, a negatively tilted shortwave trough and
attending mid-level jet streak will progress through the northern
Rockies Wednesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, the primary
baroclinic zone is expected to extend from low pressure over James
Bay through the Great Lakes and mid MO Valley into the northern High
Plains. A backdoor front/quasi-stationary boundary will reside over
the Mid-Atlantic, the specific location of which will be dictated by
the extent of outflow associated with early-day storms and the
strength of low-level ridging stretching from the Gulf of St.
Lawrence through the Northeast.

...Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic...

As alluded to in the synopsis, thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z
Wednesday from portions of WI and MI into NY and PA within a zone of
forcing for ascent associated with a lead short-wave trough. The
strongest storms will be capable of isolated occurrences of large
hail and/or damaging winds as they spread east-southeast through the
lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. In the wake of
the early-day convection, prevailing west-northwest mid-level flow
will maintain a plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
(e.g., 7 C/km) atop boundary layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s, yielding MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000+ J/kg by afternoon from
lower MI into western parts of NY and PA.

Additional thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon from
lower MI through the lower Great Lakes, aided by weak disturbances
aloft and the moderate to strong instability forecast across the
warm sector. The presence of 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will
support organized storm modes including supercells and bowing
structures capable of large hail potentially approaching two inches
and damaging wind gusts into Wednesday night. Tornado potential will
be conditional on storm mode; however, the models do indicate
stronger low-level winds and resultant larger SRH developing from
southwest ON into NY and PA Wednesday afternoon into evening, where
the greatest potential for a few tornadoes will exist.

...Northern Rockies into northern High Plains...

The presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and forcing for
ascent attendant to the short-wave trough are expected to foster an
increase in thunderstorms over western MT Wednesday afternoon amidst
a kinematic environment featuring around 30 kt of southerly
deep-layer shear. NAM and RAP-based forecast soundings indicate the
presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer, which will
enhance severe-wind-gust potential, especially as storms merge into
clusters. Given the strength of the short-wave trough and consistent
model signal for scattered storms in a favorable thermodynamic
environment, an upgrade to level-2/Slight Risk was included in this
forecast.

Additional storms appear possible across portions of eastern MT into
western ND Wednesday evening within a zone of warm advection along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Isolated occurrences of
large hail appear to be the primary hazard with those storms.

...Mid MO Valley into IA and southern MN...

Neutral to slight mid-level height rises are forecast across the
region Wednesday afternoon into night with the nebulous forcing for
ascent leading to uncertainty in whether storms will develop near
the surface boundary. As such, no severe weather probabilities will
be included in this forecast, despite a favorable overlap of
moderate to strong instability and sufficient vertical shear.

..Mead.. 09/01/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 05:54:24 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 020554
SWODY2
SPC AC 020552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, accompanied by severe wind and hail (including a
couple 2 inch diameter stones and 75+ mph gusts), are possible
across portions of the Upper Midwest. At least scattered
severe-wind-producing storms are also possible from the eastern Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain centered over the MS Valley as upper
troughs persist across the Northeast and Interior West tomorrow
(Thursday). Multiple impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures
and stronger flow aloft, will pivot around the eastern periphery of
the upper ridge and overspread a moist boundary layer over the Upper
Midwest and OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic regions. Ample buoyancy and
vertical wind shear over both areas will support at least scattered thunderstorms, several of which may be severe.

...Portions of the Upper MS Valley...
Guidance consensus depicts a subtle impulse cresting the upper ridge
over the northern Plains and impinging on the Upper MS Valley by
afternoon peak heating, serving as the most likely impetus for
convective initiation. Storms will most likely develop somewhere
along the SD/MN border to central MN, preceded by a surface warm
front draped from southern MN, to southern WI and eastern IA.
Surface dewpoints will exceed 70 F along this front, with 8+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates overspreading this moisture, yielding
3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Coincident with this strong buoyancy will be
50 kts of effective bulk shear, with forecast soundings showing
elongated hodographs.

The current thinking is that initial storms will be supercellular,
accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat (a few stones of
which may exceed 2 inches in diameter). However, if storms merge, a cold-pool-driven MCS may develop, perhaps even taking on bowing
tendencies should it traverse the surface boundary. In this
scenario, a focused severe wind swath could occur, and a couple of
gusts may exceed 75 mph. Given such subtle forcing for ascent
expected, and the dependency on finer mesoscale details for a
higher-end severe threat, only Category 2/Slight Risk probabilities
were introduced for now. If consistency in guidance consensus
continues to show bow echo evolution, higher severe probabilities
may be needed in future outlooks.

...Parts of the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
Another in a series of mid-level impulses will traverse the
Mid-Atlantic region during the day. A diffuse differential heating
zone should be in place somewhere near the PA/MD border, which will
likely be the location of convective initiation by late morning or
early afternoon. There is also the possibility that upstream
convective complexes, remnant from Day 1 storms along the
larger-scale warm front, may approach from the OH Valley and track
toward the Eastern Seaboard though the day. Regardless of the
convective scenario, storms should overspread 70+ F surface
dewpoints (which will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Given modest northwesterly flow aloft, any storms that become sustained will be
accompanied by a severe gust threat, though an instance of hail
cannot be ruled out. Higher severe probabilities are not entirely
out of the question once mesoscale details on convective placement,
timing, and evolution become clearer.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 17:21:12 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 021720
SWODY2
SPC AC 021718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH DAKOTA-MINNESOTA RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND IN PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, accompanied by predominantly severe wind gusts and
hail (including 75+ mph gusts and hailstones greater than two
inches), are possible from the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River
Valley into the upper Midwest. At least widely scattered severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are also possible from
the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

...Synopsis...

A high-latitude omega block will persist through the forecast
period, featuring upper lows along the Pacific Northwest coast and
over QC, which bracket a mid-level ridge centered along the MS
Valley. Several smaller-scale perturbations are expected to move
through the broader-scale flow regime from the northern Plains and
the upper MS Valley through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic,
aiding in thunderstorm development in those areas. At the surface,
an area of low pressure is forecast to develop through the Dakotas
into MN, while a preceding warm front lifts north through the upper
MS Valley and upper Midwest. The boundary is expected to extend
southeast through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, where its
location may be modified from convective outflow stemming from
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

...Northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes...

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an
elevated-mixed layer (EML) will reside atop a moist boundary layer
in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, yielding a
strongly unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to
3000-4000+ J/kg. Amidst a backdrop of general height rises, the
progression of weak disturbances through the building ridge will
promote periods of forcing for ascent. The first of these may occur
Thursday morning when elevated thunderstorms appear possible from
portions of the mid-MO Valley into upper Midwest. Given the presence
of the EML and sufficient cloud-bearing shear, isolated occurrences
of large hail may accompany the strongest storms as they spread east
into the upper Great Lakes.

In the wake of the early-day storms, residual capping associated
with the building ridge coupled with the subtle forcing for ascent
results in considerable model variability in the location of
subsequent, surface-based storm development Thursday afternoon into
night. Nonetheless, the degree of instability and up to 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will conditionally support higher-order storm modes
including supercells and bowing structures, both of which are
depicted by the suite of various 12Z CAMs. Hail in excess of two
inches, severe wind gusts greater than 75 mph, and a couple of
tornadoes appear possible with the most intense storms.

The 15% hail and accompanying CIG1 contours have been expanded into
the ND-MN Red River Valley and in parts of WI to account for the
large hail potential. Otherwise, the forecast will remain largely
unchanged due to the spatial uncertainty in surface-based storm
development. Once finer-scale details become more clear, an upgrade
to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary, primarily for
severe winds associated with a cold-pool-driven MCS.

...Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coast...

Similar to this morning, clusters of thunderstorms capable of
isolated occurrences of damaging wind may be ongoing at 12Z Thursday
over portions of the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions.
A subset of the morning storms may intensify by afternoon over the Delmarva/southern Mid-Atlantic with additional storms forming during
the peak of the diurnal heating cycle in the vicinity of the surface
front and/or residual outflow boundaries over the upper OH Valley.

Despite weakening mid-level lapse rates with eastward extent,
daytime heating combined with dewpoints largely in the low/mid 70s
will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along
and south of the effective surface front with MLCAPE approaching
2500-3500 J/kg. The frontal zone will coincide with a belt of 40-45
kt west-northwest mid-level flow, yielding sufficient vertical shear
for supercells and organized line segments and/or bowing structures.
The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts, though isolated
occurrences of large hail are possible with any supercells that may
evolve.

A slight northward shift in the Marginal and Slight Risk
probabilities has been made to account for stronger instability and
an associated severe risk evident in various 12z models.

..Mead.. 09/02/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 05:44:06 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 030543
SWODY2
SPC AC 030542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging
gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on
Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and
large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into
night.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will amplify over the Plains states, with upper
troughs meandering over the Interior West and along the East Coast.
East of the ridge crest, multiple impulses will track southeastward
across the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic, atop a surface warm frontal
boundary, serving as the impetus for thunderstorm initiation in
these areas. Given modestly stronger flow and cooler temperatures
aloft overspreading this moisture-rich surface boundary, a few
storms may become severe.

...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
At least one or more subtle mid-level impulses will pivot around the
broader East Coast trough, supporting scattered thunderstorm
initiation by afternoon. By this time, surface temperatures should
reach 90 F, amid 70 F dewpoints, yielding around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE
given 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer northwesterly
flow will be in place, supporting 20-40 kts of effective bulk (speed
shear), favoring multicells and perhaps a transient supercell, the
strongest of which may produce damaging gusts or an instance of
hail.

...Portions of the Midwest to Ohio Valley...
Upper support for convective initiation will be even weaker across
the Midwest/OH Valley compared to the areas closer to the East
Coast. Nonetheless, 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE along a
surface warm front, where subtle convergence will reside.
Thunderstorm coverage should be quite isolated. However, any storms
that manage to mature may become multicellular or supercellular
given 30+ kts of effective bulk shear in place. An instance or two
of severe wind or hail are possible.

..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 16:57:34 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 031657
SWODY2
SPC AC 031655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging
gusts, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio Valley into
the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms
capable of severe winds and large hail may occur over parts of the
Midwest Friday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level ridge over central North America will undergo
considerable amplification between troughs located over the western
CONUS and eastern Canada into the Northeast. Subtle disturbances
embedded within the broader-scale flow regime will focus
thunderstorm development, one of which will progress from the Great
Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop over the northern High
Plains with an associated surface front stretching from the northern
Plains through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic
coast. The specific location of that boundary by afternoon may be
affected by convective outflow associated with thunderstorm activity
tonight into Friday morning.

...Upper Ohio Valley to southern Mid-Atlantic...

There is good agreement across 12Z model guidance that thunderstorms
will be ongoing at 12Z Friday over portions of the Great Lakes ahead
of the mid-level disturbance mentioned above. A subset of those
storms may linger through the morning over the upper OH Valley with
an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.

By afternoon, daytime heating across the downstream air mass over
the southern Mid-Atlantic will combine with boundary-layer dewpoints
in the low/mid 70s to yield moderate instability with MLCAPE up to
2000-2500 J/kg. That destabilization process, in conjunction with
increased forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
mid-level disturbance, will support intensification of any lingering
storms moving into the region from the northwest. Additional storms
are also possible along the effective surface front and lee trough.
The presence of 25-35 kt of west-northwest deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for episodic supercell and bowing structures with the
predominant hazard being damaging wind gusts into evening.

A modest areal expansion of the Slight Risk wind probabilities has
been applied to portions of the upper OH Valley given the scenario
described above.

...Midwest...

Owing to the proximity of the building mid-level ridge and resultant
capping for surface-based parcels, convective evolution remains
highly uncertain. The eastern extension of a steep mid-level lapse
rate plume will overlie lower/mid 70s dewpoints in the vicinity of
the surface front, supporting moderate to strong instability by
afternoon with MLCAPE of 3000-4000+ J/kg. The 12Z
convection-allowing and parameterized model guidance offers varying
scenarios with respect to the timing and location of storm
development from Friday afternoon through night. Deep-layer shear
will be weaker than previous days; however, the magnitude of
instability will be supportive of a conditional risk for large hail
and damaging winds with any surface-based storms that can develop.

Marginal Risk wind and hail probabilities will be maintained in this
forecast update due to the uncertainties mentioned above.

..Mead.. 09/03/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 05:06:26 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 040506
SWODY2
SPC AC 040504

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across
portions of the central Appalachians and Carolinas on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe
wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains
and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.

...Ohio Valley to southern Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

An upper shortwave disturbance will migrate through northwesterly
flow aloft, leading to modest height falls across the region on
Saturday. As this occurs, midlevel northwesterly flow will
strengthen, supporting effective shear magnitudes in the 25-35 kt
range. At the surface, a cold front will develop south across the
Midwest and Mid-Atlantic after 00z. Ahead of the front, a very warm
and moist airmass will foster a corridor of moderate to strong
instability.

Forecast guidance varies with regards to possible morning
convection, resulting in some uncertainty in the forecast for
Saturday. Early convection could be ongoing anywhere from the Lower
Ohio Valley toward the WV/VA mountains as remnants from Day 1
thunderstorm activity. Whether this early day activity will
dissipate or re-intensify as it moves into the moist and
destabilizing downstream airmass is uncertain. Regardless, the
overall environment will support afternoon and evening thunderstorm
activity ahead of the southward-advancing front and along a surface
trough through the parts of the VA/NC/SD Piedmont. Organized
clusters will mainly pose a damaging wind risk as convection spreads east/southeast during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern/Central Plains vicinity...

Substantial upper ridging will be centered over the Plains on
Saturday. However, most guidance depicts one of more shortwave
disturbances migrating northeast from the central Rockies into the
NE/SD vicinity. Additionally, convection could be ongoing at the
start of the period across the Mid-MO Valley. Southeasterly
low-level flow will result in modest boundary layer moisture along a
surface trough across the northern/central High Plains, with
increasing dewpoints further east toward the MO River along a
surface boundary. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest
instability across the High Plains, with moderate to strong
instability further east.

If storms are occurring at the beginning of the period across the MO
Valley, hail and strong wind gusts will be possible, with some
intensification possible toward midday/early afternoon within the
very moist/unstable and favorably sheared environment. Additional
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface trough over the High Plains during the late
afternoon/evening. This activity could produce strong outflow wind
gusts given a deeply mixed boundary layer and modest shear, along
with isolated large hail.

..Leitman.. 09/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 17:05:44 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 041705
SWODY2
SPC AC 041703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across
portions of the central Appalachians and Carolinas on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe
wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains
and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.

...Eastern Carolinas...
A mid-level trough across the western Atlantic is forecast to
retrograde slightly on Saturday with an associated surface front
expected to move slowly southward from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Carolinas. South of this cold front, a very moist airmass will be in
place with strong instability, particularly across the eastern
Carolinas. Farther west, downslope flow off the mountains may result
in a more stable environment in the western half of the Carolinas.
This signal varies within the guidance, and confidence is not high
enough to lower probabilities across this area, but the greater
threat should remain farther east where mid to upper 70s dewpoints
and around 30 knots of shear amid a front and height falls aloft
should support scattered strong to severe storms capable of mostly
damaging winds.

...Ohio Valley...
Strong heating across eastern Kentucky and vicinity should provide
an unstable and uncapped airmass by Saturday afternoon. Mid-level
flow will be relatively weak across this region (~20 knots) and
therefore, effective shear and storm organization is expected to be
weak. However, strong heating and steep lapse rates will support
some damaging wind threat Saturday afternoon/evening. Some guidance
shows these storms clustering and traversing the Appalachians and
continuing into western Virginia and western North Carolina. The
relatively weak shear, and potential for lesser instability due to
downslope flow across the eastern Appalachians casts significant
doubt on this potential.

...Central to northern Plains...
Most guidance shows ongoing thunderstorms within a warm-air
advection zone across southeast South Dakota Saturday morning.
Isolated large hail is possible with this activity during the
morning hours before the low-level jet weakens and backs and these thunderstorms weaken by late morning.

As the mid-level ridge strengthens during the day Saturday, height
rises will be present across much of the Plains. Despite this,
upslope flow will develop across the central High Plains. Within
this region, forecast soundings show moderate instability but weak
mid-level flow. This will support some isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts, but the lack of shear should limit the overall
severe weather threat.

A more organized cluster of storms may develop across southwest
Nebraska, but do not expect storm intensity to warrant higher severe
weather probabilities.

After 00Z, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen across the central/northern Plains. This could result in some isolated storm
development during the overnight period into the Dakotas. Given the
strong instability forecast across this region, these storms could
contain large hail or damaging wind gusts.

...North-central Montana...
A mid-level jet streak on the eastern periphery of a mid-level
trough across the Northwest will remain across Montana for much of
the period on Saturday. Weak instability may develop as temperatures
warm into the 70s across west-central Montana Saturday afternoon.
Overall, moisture will be lacking (30s F dewpoints) which should
limit the severe weather threat. However, there is some instability
within a zone of moderate to strong shear. Therefore, one or two
fast-moving strong storms may develop within this zone, but the
overall lack of moisture/instability precludes severe weather
probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 09/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 05:14:14 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 050514
SWODY2
SPC AC 050512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is
expected across parts of Montana into the northern Plains and Middle
Missouri Valley.

...MT into the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley...

The upper ridge centered over the Plains on Sunday will begin to
weaken and shift east as a western upper shortwave trough develops
eastward toward the northern Rockies. As this occurs, several
shortwave impulses will migrate through the top of the ridge over
the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley. Southwesterly deep-layer flow
also will increase later in the period across MT and the High Plains
with the approaching of the upper trough. At the surface, low
pressure will be in place across eastern MT and the western Dakotas,
with a surface trough extending southward through the central High
Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across northern ND,
while a quasi-stationary front extends northwest to southeast across
South Dakota into the MO-Valley. A moist airmass will reside along
these boundaries, and areas of moderate to strong instability are
forecast.

Most guidance depicts early day convection ongoing across parts of
MN and eastern SD. While evolution of this convection is uncertain,
it seems possible that it could persist and/or strengthen as it
shifts southwest across the Mid-MO Valley through afternoon.
Additional convection is expected to develop along the surface
trough over the High Plains, near the surface warm front, surface
low, and later in the evening across much of Montana with the
approach of the upper trough. Pockets of damaging winds and hail
will be possible. If confidence increases in areas of greater storm
coverage, higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

...Southern States...

A weak low is expected to develop southward across GA as a surface
front sags southward through the period. Ahead of the front, a very
moist and unstable airmass will be in place, fostering areas of
moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer flow will remain light
and vertical shear weak, limiting organized severe potential.
However, given strong instability, high PWs, frontal forcing, and
sufficient storm coverage/clustering, isolated to scattered
strong/damaging wind gusts are expected.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:33:02 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 051732
SWODY2
SPC AC 051730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast
Sunday afternoon and early evening. Additional areas at risk for
severe wind and hail are across parts of northern Utah northward
into Montana and east into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri
Valley.

... Synopsis ...

A high-amplitude mid-level ridge will persist across the central US
on Sunday, with troughing across both the east and west coasts.
Embedded within the basal region of the western trough, a closed low
should open up and take on a negative tilt as it moves along the
northwest periphery of the central ridge.

At the surface, an anticyclone will be located across the upper
Great Lakes, ushering in a cooler, drier air mass from the Upper
Midwest east across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Demarcating
the boundary between this continental air mass and the more maritime
air mass to the south and west will be a front stretched from the Minnesota-North/South Dakota border south and east to southeast
Missouri and then east from there to the East Coast.

... Southeast ...

A very humid air mass will be in place across the region, with HREF
mean dewpoint temperatures in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Diurnal
heating will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the
low-to-mid-90Fs, yielding MUCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg. (High-resolution guidance is generally in the 1500-2500 J/kg range,
with coarser-scale guidance, such as the RAP, showing perhaps as
high as 4000 J/kg.)

Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached. Precipitable water values
around 2 inches and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg will support
heavy, water-laden downbursts capable of scattered wind damage.
Slightly better deep-layer shear across portions of Georgia and the
Carolinas may support at least transient thunderstorm organization
in the form of multi-cell clusters which may pose a slightly greater
risk of organized wind damage.

... Mid-Missouri Valley and Northern Plains ...

Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period
across portions of the area or develop shortly thereafter. These
thunderstorms will likely be driven by strong warm-air advection
near the apex of the mid-level ridge. These storms may initially
pose a risk of large hail and gusty winds. With time, diurnal
heating may support a transition from elevated-to-surface based
thunderstorms, increasing the potential for damaging winds,
especially as low-level lapse rate steepen. Deep-layer shear will
support individual storms moving southeast while the larger-scale
evolution will be toward the southwest.

The exact evolution of this convection, in particular where the
narrow corridor develops, remains a bit uncertain. As confidence
increases in the location of these storms, higher severe weather
probabilities may be needed.

... Northwest Utah into Montana ...

As the western mid-level low opens and takes on a negative tilt as
it traverses the northwest periphery of the central US ridge,
large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development
across portions of northwest Utah, Idaho, and western Wyoming.
Strong mid-level flow (around 50 knots at 500 millibars) coupled
with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support downward
momentum transfer within these thunderstorms capable of producing
scattered wind damage. These storms will quickly move northeast into
Montana during the evening hours. If coverage of these storms is
greater than expected, higher wind probabilities would be warranted
in subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 09/05/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 05:12:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 060511
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the northern
Rockies to the northern Plains on Monday. This will break down the
upper ridge across the region, shifting it eastward toward the Great
Lakes. At this occurs, strengthening mid/upper southwesterly flow
will overspread the Plains. Southerly low-level winds will maintain
a corridor of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints ahead of a surface low
lifting northeast across the Dakotas. Warmer midlevel temperatures
may result in capping for much of the day. However, as the upper
trough approaching cooling aloft and increasing large-scale ascent
should erode inhibition by late afternoon. Vertically veering wind
profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt.
Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for large hail
and locally damaging gusts.

A south/southwest low-level jet is forecast to increase during the
evening. Though nocturnal cooling will resulting in increase
inhibition after dark, warm advection aided by the strengthening
low-level jet may result in one or more clusters of strong storms
across the eastern portions of the Dakotas/Nebraska and into MN
during the nighttime hours. It is uncertain if sufficient
instability will persist overnight to support severe convection, but
given the strength of mid/upper flow, some risk for damaging wind
gusts could persist overnight.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 17:17:56 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A mid-level shortwave trough will take on increasingly negative tilt
on Monday as it lifts north-northeast along the northwest periphery
of a central CONUS ridge. At the same time, a subtle, low-amplitude
short-wave trough currently over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of
Southern California will quickly move northeast ahead of the main
wave.

At the surface, an anticyclone over the Upper Great Lakes will
maintain south-southeasterly flow across the Plains, sustaining mid-to-upper-60Fs dewpoints across the Missouri Valley into the
Dakotas and western Minnesota. A weak low across eastern Montana
will eventually redevelop northward into the Canadian Prairies
overnight. As this happens, a cold front will move east across the
Northern Plains.

... Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest ...

The lead short-wave trough will be approaching the north-central US
at the start of the forecast period (Monday morning). As the
associated mid-level jet approaches, the low-level jet will increase
and spread northward across the Plains. On the nose of this jet,
elevated convection is likely to be ongoing in response to the
warm-air advection. Latest model guidance maintains the low-level
jet through the day and subsequently the morning convection is
likely to persist through the day as it moves northeast toward
western Minnesota. Although widespread cloud cover and moist
mid-level profiles will limit instability, the degree of the
cloud-layer shear will support at least some potential for hail with
these elevated storms.

To the southwest of the morning convection, clearing clouds will
give way to robust heating allowing surface temperatures to climb
into the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs, with even hotter surface
temperatures across western Nebraska. This will allow strong
instability to develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface cold
front/dry line.

Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon along the surface front/dryline. However, low-level
convergence along this boundary will be somewhat weak, with southerly/southwesterly flow ahead of it. At the same time,
large-scale subsidence will likely be occurring in the wake of the
morning convection. This should limit storm coverage across western
South Dakota and western Nebraska. Northwest North Dakota and
eastern Montana will be closer to the main wave as its associated
better large-scale ascent. Thus, storm coverage may be slightly
higher here during the afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong
wind gusts will be possible with any of these storms.

Overnight, the low-level jet increases in response to the main wave
approaching the area. This should result in additional elevated
thunderstorm development from northeast Nebraska into the eastern
Dakotas. This activity should continue east across Minnesota through
the overnight. Overall instability should be on the low side given
the convection from the lead shortwave, but strong cloud-layer shear
could support a hail and wind threat with the strongest elevated
convection.

..Marsh.. 09/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 05:16:28 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 070515
SWODY2
SPC AC 070513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will
overspread the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley as this occurs. Meanwhile,
a surface low over Manitoba will lift northeast through the early
Wednesday. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward across the
Upper Midwest, with the southern extent of the boundary stalling
over southern NE. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be
in place, supporting pockets of weak to moderate instability.

Most forecast guidance depicts ongoing thunderstorms Tuesday morning
across parts of MN/WI within a warm advection regime. This activity
could pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts. Early day
thunderstorms could impact airmass recovery and destabilization for afternoon/evening severe potential ahead of the advancing cold
front. If sufficient recovery occurs, another round of severe
potential could develop from southeast MN into WI and the MI Upper
Peninsula. Otherwise, severe potential will increase during the
evening with southward extent ahead of the front across IA/eastern
NE and perhaps northern KS. While vertical shear will lessen with
southward extent, initial cells will likely develop into line
segments along the front. An initial risk of hail and strong gusts
will transition to mainly a damaging wind risk as storm mode becomes
more linear.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 17:48:16 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 071747
SWODY2
SPC AC 071746

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...
An upper-level shortwave trough currently translating through the
northern Rockies will move into the Canadian Prairies and northern
Plains on Tuesday. A secondary upper-level feature will translate
from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through the period.
South of these features, enhanced mid-to upper-level southwesterly
flow will overspread the Mid-Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys.
At the surface, a low over Manitoba will lift northeastward into
Ontario by early Wednesday. A trailing cold front will move eastward
across the Upper Midwest while the southern extent of the boundary
is forecast to stall over southern Nebraska.

Ahead of the front, persistent southerly return flow will maintain a
moist warm-sector with weak to moderate instability ahead of the
front. Most CAM guidance depicts elevated thunderstorms Tuesday
morning across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, near the nose of
the low-level jet. This early activity will likely pose an initial
risk for marginally severe hail and isolated strong wind gusts.

Further south, severe potential is expected to gradually increase
during the evening ahead of the front across Iowa, eastern Nebraska,
and potentially northern Kansas. Deep-layer shear will progressively
lessen with southward extent but strong convergence along the
stalling boundary should support convective initiation within the
moderately unstable boundary-layer. Initial cells will likely have a
threat for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts, but are
expected to quickly grow upscale into line segments with a greater
damaging wind threat later Tuesday evening.

..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 05:15:52 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 080515
SWODY2
SPC AC 080513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

...Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes...

An upper trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
and Northeast on Wednesday. Stronger deep-layer flow will be focused
across the Great Lakes and Northeast, to the north of a corridor of
modest instability. As a surface cold front develops southeast
toward the Ohio Valley and western NY during the evening, isolated
to scattered thunderstorm development is expected. While modest
instability will limit a more substantial severe risk, stronger
deep-layer flow will support sporadic strong gusts.

...Central Plains to Lower Ohio Valley...

Stronger instability is forecast within a moist and hot airmass from
KS to the Lower MO and Lower OH Valleys Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This area will remain well south of strong westerly flow
aloft associated with the Great Lake upper trough, resulting in
modest vertical shear, especial across KS. Despite modest shear,
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 amid steeper low and midlevel lapse rates
will support some risk of strong to severe convection. Storms
developing along a surface boundary will mainly pose a risk for
damaging gusts. Where marginally stronger shear will be located
across the Lower MO Valley vicinity, small hail could also occur
with the strongest updrafts.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 17:10:42 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 081710
SWODY2
SPC AC 081708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more
organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to
western New York.

...Eastern Ohio into western New York...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast
on Wednesday with moderate mid-level flow expanding along the
southern periphery of this trough. A strong surface low associated
with this trough will move across northern Ontario with a cold front
extending into the Midwest. Ahead of this front, low 70s dewpoints
are forecast to advect northward across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
western New York. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively weak, but
the moist environment will support moderate instability amid
moderate effective shear. A line of storms is forecast to develop
along the front from central Ohio into western New York. This
environment should support damaging winds. Some tornado threat may
exist as the low-level flow strengthens during the afternoon with
clockwise curved low-level hodographs. However, a mostly linear
storm mode should limit the overall tornado threat.

...Ohio Valley to the central Plains...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop from the central Plains
to the Ohio Valley. Across the plains, instability will be driven by
a hot, deeply mixed environment while instability farther east will
be driven by 70s dewpoints. Within this entire zone, mid-level flow
is expected to remain quite weak which will limit storm
organization. Water-loaded downbursts farther east and drier
microbursts in the mixed environment farther west will be the
primary hazard within the Marginal Risk. A zone of greater
instability from eastern Missouri into western Indiana could support
an isolated hail threat, particularly if some of this greater
instability can spread beneath stronger mid-level flow. However,
morning convection/cloudcover may be present where this most
favorable environment could develop.

..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 05:19:18 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 090519
SWODY2
SPC AC 090517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks
into the Mid-South.

...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South...

An upper shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front is
forecast to extend across the Ohio Valley into the southern High
Plains during the morning. The western extent of the boundary over
the southern High plains will sag southward through the period into northern/central TX, while the eastern extent of the boundary stalls
over the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in
place near and south of the surface boundary. Pockets of weak to
moderate instability are expected near the surface boundary, but
will largely be modulated by areas of ongoing precipitation at the
beginning of the period, as well as weak midlevel lapse rates.

Low-level flow is expected to remain weak, while strong flow aloft
will be offset from stronger instability ahead of the surface front.
This will limit more focused/robust severe potential. However, a few
strong storms could occur across the southern High Plains within the post-frontal upslope flow regime where vertically veering wind
profiles could support around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes.
Marginal hail and gusty winds could occur within this regime.

Within the very moist and moderately unstable airmass further east
across portions of the Ozarks and Mid-South, sufficient clustering
could occur to promote sporadic strong wind gusts via storm/outflow interactions, or from wet microbursts within the high-PW and steeper
low-level lapse rate environment.

..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 17:25:50 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 091725
SWODY2
SPC AC 091723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks
and Mid-South.

...Synopsis...
A progressive, positive-tilt trough will move from the Mid MS Valley
across the OH Valley, with a surface high building in behind and
extending westward into the Central Plains. The associated front
will stall from the Ozarks into OK, with generally weak easterly
surface winds across this region. This region will harbor upper 60s
to lower 70s F dewpoints and support modest destabilization with
marginal shear. Later in the day and overnight, temporary shortwave
ridging will occur over the Northern Plains as a stronger and broad
upper trough develops into the northern Rockies. This will induce
southerly low-level winds across the Plains with a nocturnal
low-level jet aiding moisture return into NE and SD.

...Southern High Plains...
Modest mid to high level northwesterlies combined with moist
southeast surface winds will result in around 35 kt deep-layer
shear, conditionally supporting cellular activity. Storms will
develop over northeast NM after 20Z, and will proceed southeastward
into the far western TX Panhandle during the evening. Cells may
initially produce hail over 1.00" diameter, with possible clustering
supporting locally severe gusts.

...Ozarks and Mid-South...
A band of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE should develop along the front,
which will also be along the southern periphery of the stronger
winds aloft with the shortwave trough. Afternoon storms moving along
this boundary could organize into a few small clusters, though shear
will be minimal. However, strong heating just south of the boundary
and steepening of low-level lapse rates may support locally damaging outflow/gusts.

..Jewell.. 09/09/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 05:40:56 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 100540
SWODY2
SPC AC 100538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Nebraska to the
Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Nebraska/eastern Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly flow will overspread the region, particularly from the
Dakotas into MN/WI. Cooling aloft will also support steepening
midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary layer in which
increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
northward across the region. A surface low is forecast to develop
and shift east across SD, with a surface cold front shifting
southeast through period. This front will be oriented from northeast
to southwest from northwest MN/eastern ND into central SD near the
surface low by mid to late afternoon. A dryline will extend
southward from the surface low over central SD through central NE.
Corridors of moderate instability are forecast along/ahead of the
front, and thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon/early evening across northern MN.

Vertically veering wind profiles will support initial supercell
storms capable of all hazards, including damaging wind, large hail,
and a couple of tornadoes. Some hail greater than 2 inch diameter is
possible if supercell mode can be maintained. Given strong linear
ascent along the surface boundary, and an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet during the evening, initial supercells are likely to
cluster and/or grow upscale into line of convection spreading
east/northeast through the nighttime hours.

Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain, and overall severe
potential more conditional, with southward extent into eastern SD/IA
and central NE. Large-scale ascent will be weaker further south, and
this could be problematic for overcoming inhibition from warmer
850-700 mb temperatures, especially through early evening. As the
surface cold front overtakes the dryline in NE overnight, elevated
convection could develop within a low-level warm advection regime.
Whether storms develop during the early evening or overnight, some
severe risk from damaging gusts and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 09/10/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 17:15:58 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 101715
SWODY2
SPC AC 101715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Nebraska to the
Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Nebraska/Iowa/eastern Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly flow will overspread the region, particularly from the
Dakotas into MN/WI. Cooling aloft will also support steepening
midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary layer in which
increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
northward across the region. A surface low is forecast to develop
and shift east across SD, with a surface cold front shifting
southeast through period. This front will be oriented from northeast
to southwest from northwest MN/eastern ND into central SD near the
surface low by mid to late afternoon. A dryline will extend
southward from the surface low over central SD through central NE.
Corridors of moderate instability are forecast along/ahead of the
front, and thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon/early evening across northern MN.

Vertically veering wind profiles will support initial supercell
storms capable of all hazards, including damaging wind, large hail,
and a couple of tornadoes. Some hail greater than 2 inch diameter is
possible if supercell mode can be maintained. Given strong linear
ascent along the surface boundary, and an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet during the evening, initial supercells are likely to
cluster and/or grow upscale into line of convection spreading
east/northeast through the nighttime hours.

Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain, and overall severe
potential more conditional, with southward extent into eastern SD/IA
and central NE. Large-scale ascent will be weaker further south, and
this could be problematic for overcoming inhibition from warmer
850-700 mb temperatures, especially through early evening. As the
surface cold front overtakes the dryline in NE overnight, elevated
convection could develop within a low-level warm advection regime.
Whether storms develop during the early evening or overnight, some
severe risk from damaging gusts and hail will be possible.

..15_ows.. 09/10/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 17:41:42 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 101741
SWODY2
SPC AC 101715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Nebraska to the
Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Nebraska/Iowa/eastern Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly flow will overspread the region, particularly from the
Dakotas into MN/WI. Cooling aloft will also support steepening
midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary layer in which
increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
northward across the region. A surface low is forecast to develop
and shift east across SD, with a surface cold front shifting
southeast through period. This front will be oriented from northeast
to southwest from northwest MN/eastern ND into central SD near the
surface low by mid to late afternoon. A dryline will extend
southward from the surface low over central SD through central NE.
Corridors of moderate instability are forecast along/ahead of the
front, and thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon/early evening across northern MN.

Vertically veering wind profiles will support initial supercell
storms capable of all hazards, including damaging wind, large hail,
and a couple of tornadoes. Some hail greater than 2 inch diameter is
possible if supercell mode can be maintained. Given strong linear
ascent along the surface boundary, and an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet during the evening, initial supercells are likely to
cluster and/or grow upscale into line of convection spreading
east/northeast through the nighttime hours.

Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain, and overall severe
potential more conditional, with southward extent into eastern SD/IA
and central NE. Large-scale ascent will be weaker further south, and
this could be problematic for overcoming inhibition from warmer
850-700 mb temperatures, especially through early evening. As the
surface cold front overtakes the dryline in NE overnight, elevated
convection could develop within a low-level warm advection regime.
Whether storms develop during the early evening or overnight, some
severe risk from damaging gusts and hail will be possible.

..15_ows.. 09/10/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 05:02:30 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 110501
SWODY2
SPC AC 110500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF
NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, and perhaps at least a small organizing
cluster of storms, appear possible across parts of the lower
Missouri Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, which will likely be
maintained to the southeast of the Aleutians through this period,
models indicate that another vigorous digging short wave trough will
contribute to lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis offshore of the
Pacific Northwest, before slowly pivoting inland Saturday through
Saturday night. Farther east, it appears that attempts at building
ridging across the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains will
be suppressed by a digging short wave trough across the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, within the southwestern periphery of larger-scale troughing east of the Canadian Prairies through the
Canadian Maritimes.

By 12Z Saturday, perhaps the strongest short wave perturbation
within the eastern Canadian troughing is forecast to be in the
process of digging near the southwestern shores of Hudson Bay. As
this feature turns eastward during the day, renewed cyclogenesis is
forecast to the southeast of the primary surface cyclone, across
northern Quebec. A cold front trailing to the southwest may advance
across much of the upper Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and northern
Great Plains by late Saturday night, preceded by a weaker cool
surge, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow, across the lower
Missouri Valley and central Great Plains.

It does appear that southern mid- to subtropical latitude ridging
will remain prominent across much of the central/southern Great
Plains through Southeast into early Sunday. Within and near the
northern periphery of this feature, a weak perturbation initially
migrating east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to
become increasingly sheared across the Appalachians through
Northeast.

...Parts of central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley...
Stronger warm sector low-level wind fields and forcing for ascent
are generally forecast to remain in closer proximity to the primary
and secondary surface cyclones, to the Canadian side of the
international border through this period. However, in the wake of
the shearing perturbation to the east of the Mississippi Valley,
models continue to suggest that forcing for ascent aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm, beneath a difluent regime near/just
south of the mid-level westerlies, may provide a focus for strong
thunderstorm development Saturday through Saturday night.

By early Saturday, it appears that this may set up across the lower
Missouri Valley vicinity, where a zone of stronger differential
surface heating may evolve by late Saturday afternoon. Seasonably
high boundary-layer moisture near the interface of the stronger
heating, beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, may support a
corridor of large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg.
Coinciding with at least modest deep-layer shear, aided by
pronounced veering of winds with height in lower to mid-levels, this
regime may become conducive to the development of isolated to widely
scattered supercells. It is possible that stronger activity
persisting into Saturday evening could grow upscale into an
organizing southeastward propagating cluster, near the nose of a
modestly strengthening southwesterly nocturnal boundary-layer jet.

Due to substantive continuing spread within and among the various
model output, including the latest available convection-allowing
guidance, severe probabilities have been maintained at 5 percent.
However, this could still change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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