Forum: War Ensemble BBS

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 07:18:00 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 310717
SWODY3
SPC AC 310716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected across portions of the eastern Great
Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Severe wind and hail are the
main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS as
an upper trough progresses across the Intermountain West on
Wednesday. A pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Great
Lakes and overspread the northern Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
afternoon. Seasonably cold temperatures aloft and strong
northwesterly flow will accompany this impulse while it passes over
a moist and unstable boundary layer, promoting the potential for
severe storms.

...Northwest PA to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
Scattered thunderstorms (perhaps strong) will be ongoing across PA
and points southeast at the start of the period (12Z Wednesday).
Through the early afternoon hours, showers and thunderstorms will
give way to at least modest insolation, resulting in boundary layer destabilization. Surface heating of a moist boundary layer (e.g. low
70s F surface dewpoints) will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE given
mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. The aforementioned
mid-level impulse overspreading eastern Lower Michigan to the
Delmarva will result in strong northwesterly flow aloft and 35-45
kts of effective bulk shear. Furthermore, forecast soundings also
depict appreciably large and curved hodographs, with over 200 m2/s2
0-3 km SRH. Supercells and bowing segments will be the most likely
storm mode, with severe wind and hail the main threats, though a
couple of tornadoes are also possible.

...Portions of the eastern Great Lakes...
A secondary mid-level impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes
by Wednesday afternoon, which may support an additional round of
storms. These storms will be preceded by 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates, which will overspread 70 F surface dewpoints and yield 2000+
J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and
supercells may occur, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 19:35:34 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 311934
SWODY3
SPC AC 311933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with wind and hail risk are expected from the Lower
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A few severe storms
may also occur over parts of Montana.

...Lower Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic...
An upper ridge will hold over the TN Valley to Appalachians, while
an upper low drifts east into Quebec. In between, moderate
westerlies aloft will exist, supporting favorable deep-layer shear
and areas of storm organization.

At the surface, a weak surface trough should extend roughly from
Lower MI into NY, with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints to the
south. The westerly low-level winds will support air mass recovery
behind any early/dying morning activity, with afternoon
redevelopment expected from Lower MI into NY. Corridors of damaging
winds are most likely as storms move rapidly southeastward.
Deep-layer shear may also favor large hail with the more cellular
activity. Low-level shear may favor a few supercells across eastern NY/PA/NJ/DelMarVa, and therefore a brief tornado or two cannot be
ruled out assuming storm mode remains discrete as they move east
into the better shear environment.

...Western to northern MT...
A potent shortwave trough is forecast to move out of the Great Basin
and across ID and MT Wednesday, with substantial cooling aloft. Low
pressure is forecast to develop into west-central MT, with a
prominent cold front moving across the entire state into Thursday
morning.

Strong surface heating ahead of the front combined with cooling
aloft will result in steep lapse rates through a deep layer, aiding destabilization despite limited moisture. Storms that develop near
the front during the afternoon are thus likely to produce strong to
locally severe gusts. Marginally severe hail may also occur. Farther
east, increasing southeast low-level winds will bring a plume of
instability into eastern MT as well, which may support cells capable
of hail through the evening.

...NE...SD...MN...IA...
Predictability is low, but isolated strong to severe storms cannot
be ruled out during the late afternoon and evening, as winds
increase out of the south ahead of the northern Rockies wave. Areas
of moderate instability will remain over the region with
southeasterly surface winds and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. Peak
heating will lead to an uncapped air mass across central SD and NE,
with lift increasing into the evening as a low-level jet develops.
Models are in disagreement with the most likely area for
development, but severe probabilities may be added later from NE
into MN.

..Jewell.. 08/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 07:22:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 010721
SWODY3
SPC AC 010720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging
gusts and perhaps some hail, appear likely across portions of the
Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the Mid-MS Valley and points east,
with multiple mid-level perturbations expected to crest the upper
ridge from the Upper MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through the day
Thursday. Currently, the best chance for severe storms will be with
the primary impulse over the Mid-Atlantic, as stronger flow aloft
overspreads a moist boundary layer. A couple of severe thunderstorms
also cannot be ruled out farther northwest across the Upper MS
Valley, where rich low-level moisture will be coincident with a
diffuse warm frontal boundary.

...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a modest
mid-level impulse will overspread the Mid-Atlantic, contributing to
some forcing for ascent and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear.
Despite only 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates, surface dewpoints
exceeding 70 F will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the eastern OH
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline on a widespread basis. While
upper support may be weaker compared to the previous day, multiple
days of preceding storms should leave behind a lingering baroclinic
boundary somewhere around the Mid-Atlantic, which may act as a
forcing mechanism for convective initiation. Given the
aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, supercells and bowing
segments may occur, capable of producing mainly a severe gust
threat, though a couple instances of severe hail may occur.

Some guidance suggests that the best buoyancy/shear parameter space
for severe may situate over eastern PA into NJ. However, it is
unclear how previous day's storms will impact the boundary layer
over this region by Day 3/Thursday, so Slight Risk probabilities
were introduced conservatively, with some latitude given to the
northern extent of the Marginal Risk probabilities. If the more
aggressive guidance holds true and convective overturning does not
dominate this region, higher severe probabilities may be needed in
future outlooks.

...Portions of the Upper MS Valley to the Midwest...
Convective initiation is more uncertain across portions of the
Midwest to the Upper MS Valley, where a northwestward arching warm
front will be located. Here, surface dewpoints should reach the mid
70s F beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding 3500-4500 J/kg
MLCAPE. While several calibrated ML/AI guidance members depict
higher severe probabilities across this region, only Marginal risk probabilities have been introduced since the mid-level impulses
poised to track along this boundary are quite small and subtle,
rendering storm coverage highly questionable. Nonetheless, if a
storm can mature and become sustained, 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear with the strong instability may support a supercell or two
capable of mainly severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 19:31:12 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 011931
SWODY3
SPC AC 011930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging
gusts and perhaps some large hail, appear likely across portions of
the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. More isolated
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible over the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the
upper Midwest Thursday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

Broader-scale troughing is forecast over the western CONUS with
low-amplitude ridging from the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes
into the Southeast. Between the ridge and an upper low over QC,
latest model guidance indicates the progression of a short-wave
trough and associated 40-50 kt jet streak from the lower Great Lakes
through the Mid-Atlantic and portions of New England. Other more
subtle disturbances are depicted within the periphery of the ridge
over the Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley.

At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast over the Dakotas
on Thursday with an associated warm front slowly lifting north
through the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. The boundary is
expected to stretch east through the Great Lakes into the
Mid-Atlantic with the specific location of the boundary dictated by
the extent of thunderstorm activity and associated convective
outflow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

...Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Coast...

One or multiple thunderstorm complexes may be ongoing Thursday
morning from the Great Lakes through the Northeast, aided by forcing
for ascent attendant to the previously mentioned mid-level
disturbances. The presence of the early-day storms leads to
uncertainty in the extent of air mass overturning that occurs, and
where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. As such,
the Marginal Risk probability envelope has been broadened slightly
over the Mid-Atlantic with the Slight Risk probabilities remaining
unchanged.

The overlap of 30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear with a moist and
potentially moderately to strongly unstable warm sector will
conditionally support supercell and bowing storm modes with an
attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail from Thursday
afternoon into evening.

...North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the upper Midwest...

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates/EML is forecast to overly a
moist boundary layer, yielding a moderately to strongly unstable air
mass by afternoon in the vicinity of the warm front. The instability
will coincide with up to 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, conditionally
yielding a very favorable severe storm environment. However, capping
concerns and the timing of any weak disturbances cresting the ridge
axis limit predictability, with only an areal increase in the
Marginal Risk probabilities included in this forecast. A categorical
upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary in subsequent
forecasts.

..Mead.. 09/01/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 07:29:24 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are
expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over
parts of the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will continue over the central and eastern U.S., with
upper troughs meandering over the Interior West and the Northeast. A
broad warm frontal boundary will be draped from parts of the Midwest
to the Atlantic coastline, overspread by deep-layer northwesterly
flow. Multiple embedded impulses will traverse this northwest flow
regime, promoting the development of thunderstorm clusters in the
process.

...Southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
The best chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be across
portions of southern WV to the NC shoreline on Friday. By afternoon, boundary-layer destabilization along a differential heating zone,
left behind by storms in preceding days, will promote renewed
thunderstorm development. Despite meager mid-level lapse rates, 70+
F surface dewpoints and warm temperatures exceeding 90 F will yield
widespread 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given stronger northwesterly flow
aloft, 30+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear will support
multicells and supercells capable of damaging gusts.

...Portions of the Midwest and OH Valley...
Rich low-level moisture along the warm front (i.e. 70s F dewpoints),
beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. While upper support will
be quite subtle at best, strong heating and minimal capping may
support isolated thunderstorm development along the front. Only
Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced given the expected
sparse and brief nature of the severe threat. However, any storms
that mature and become sustained will be capable of producing severe
wind or hail.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 19:24:36 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 021919
SWODY3
SPC AC 021918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging
gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on
Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and
large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into
night.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level ridge over central North America will undergo further
amplification this period with that feature bracketed by troughs
over the western CONUS and eastern Canada into the Northeast. As has
been the case over the past several days, subtle disturbances
embedded within the broader-scale flow regime will serve as foci for thunderstorm development. At the surface, a lee cyclone will evolve
over the northern High Plains with an associated surface front
stretching from the northern Plains through the upper Midwest to the
southern Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Lower Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic...

There is reasonably good agreement across the 12Z parameterized
models that scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning
across portions of the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes region in
association with an embedded vorticity maximum. Whether that
convection persists into afternoon remains uncertain; however, it
does appear that the mid-level disturbance will progress into the
Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a belt of 35-40 kt west-northwest flow
in the mid levels. Forcing for ascent associated with that
disturbance will promote renewed thunderstorm development by
afternoon along the effective surface front and within a moderately
unstable air mass. Sufficient vertical shear will exist to support
organized storm modes with the predominant hazard being damaging
wind gusts.

This forecast update will include a slight northward expansion of
the Slight Risk probabilities based on 12Z guidance.

...Midwest/Corn Belt...

In the wake of possible early-day storms described in the previous
section, steep mid-level lapse rates within the eastern fringe of an elevated-mixed layer (EML) will coincide with a moist boundary layer
to yield a moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon in
the vicinity of the surface front. The proximity to the building
mid-level ridge and resultant capping across the warm sector lead to considerable uncertainty in the extent and location of surface-based thunderstorm development Friday afternoon into night. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker than that expected on
Thursday, the degree of instability will conditionally support a
large hail and severe wind risk with any surface-based storms that
develop.

Marginal Risk probabilities will be maintained with this forecast
update due to the limited predictability in convective evolution.

..Mead.. 09/02/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 07:19:30 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 030719
SWODY3
SPC AC 030718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH CAROLINA
INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing scattered damaging gusts are possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. A couple
instances of severe wind/hail with isolated thunderstorms may also
occur across portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persevere across the Plains states, with upper
troughs remaining in place across the Interior West and East Coast.
Similar to Day 2, the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be
primarily constrained to the eastern CONUS, where subtle mid-level
impulses will overspread rich low-level moisture, contributing to
enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to encourage damaging wind
production with the stronger storms.

...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
At least one mid-level impulse will traverse the OH Valley to NC
corridor on Saturday, perhaps accompanied by a morning cluster of thunderstorms. Regardless, the impulse is poised to reach the lee of
the Appalachians by Saturday afternoon, where upper 60s to lower 70s
F surface dewpoints await. By this time, boundary layer mixing will
encourage either the intensification of ongoing storms with the
approaching impulse, the development of new storms, or both, all
along a differential heating zone left behind by previous day's
storms. 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place, along with 30+ kts
of effective bulk shear driven by modest northwesterly flow aloft.
Multicells are the expected storm mode, with severe gusts and
perhaps an instance or two of hail.

Farther to the northwest, strong surface heating along an effective
warm front, characterized by mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5
C/km mid-level lapse rates (hence 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will
encourage isolated thunderstorm development across portions of the
OH Valley. Vertical shear and ascent should be relatively weak, so
the severe threat should be sparse. Nonetheless, any storms that
mature and sustain themselves may pose a severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 19:19:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 031918
SWODY3
SPC AC 031918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND FAR
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across
portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe
wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains
and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

A prominent, mid-level ridge will persist over the central U.S. with
troughs on either side, over the western CONUS and in the Northeast.
Similar to previous days, thunderstorm development will largely be
associated with subtle mid-level disturbances embedded within the
broader-scale pattern. One more notable perturbation is expected to
progress from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas on Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure is
forecast over the northern Plains with an attending boundary
extending through the Midwest to the southern Mid-Atlantic or
Carolinas.

...Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...

Latest model guidance is in good agreement in depicting a cluster of thunderstorms over portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley at
12Z Saturday, likely associated with the mid-level disturbance
mentioned above. It remains unclear whether any of the early-day
storms will persist into the afternoon. Those that do are likely to
intensify as they encounter a hot, moist, and moderately unstable
air mass present across portions of VA into the Carolinas.
Additional, in-situ storm development appears possible along the
primary front and lee trough. An increase in mid-level flow and
resultant deep-layer shear (up to 30-35 kt) is expected with the
arrival of the mid-level disturbance, suggesting the potential for
organized storm modes, with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Northern Plains...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast Saturday afternoon in the
vicinity of the surface low and attending front. The close proximity
to the mid-level ridge leads to uncertainty in convective evolution
through the forecast period. However, a number of models, both
ensemble and deterministic, indicate storm development during the
peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Given the degree of instability
and ample deep-layer shear, a few severe storms appear possible with
the primary hazards being large hail and severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 09/03/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 06:37:42 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 040637
SWODY3
SPC AC 040636

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are possible across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
and early evening. A more uncertain and conditional risk for severe
wind and hail is expected across parts of the northern Plains.

...Northern Plains...

An amplified upper ridge will remain in place from the central
Plains to the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Some modest weakening of the
ridge may occur as an upper shortwave trough digs across the
Northwest and weak shortwave disturbances crest the ridge through
the period. At the surface, low pressure will persist across the
western Dakotas. Boundary layer moisture will spread across eastern
MT on the back side of the surface low, while deep low-level
moisture extends across ND into eastern SD and the Mid-MO Valley
along another surface boundary. Capping will be a main limiting
factor for storm development. However, if the cap can be overcome,
or if elevated convection develops during the day into evening,
strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible given supercell
wind profiles and corridor of moderate to strong instability.

Deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to increase with the
approach of the Northwest upper shortwave trough late in the period
across parts of the northern Rockies toward the northern High
Plains. This could also support possible severe convection overnight
into parts of MT, but timing and overlap of stronger shear and
better instability remains uncertain.

Overall, severe potential appears conditional on Sunday across
portions of the northern Plains. But, if storms can develop, some
risk for severe wind/hail will be possible.

...Southeast...

Weak northwesterly flow aloft will persist on Sunday as a surface
front develops south/southwest into the Southeast. Ahead of the
surface boundary, a very moist airmass will support a corridor of
moderate to strong instability focused across southern GA.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Vertical
shear will remain weak, but high PW values could support sporadic
wet microbursts and locally strong wind gusts. Some guidance
suggests sufficient clustering and outflow consolidation could occur
such that a forward propagating cluster could spread south/southwest
across the area. If this occurs, damaging wind potential could
increase.

..Leitman.. 09/04/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 19:30:22 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is
expected across parts of the northern Plains.

...Southeast...
Most guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving across
the Southeast during the day on Sunday. Moderate to strong
instability is forecast south of a cold front across the region. The
greatest instability is anticipated near the coast where low to mid
70s dewpoints are likely. Mid-level flow will be quite weak, which
should limit overall storm organization. However, the combination of
the mid-level shortwave trough and the frontal forcing amid an
uncapped and strongly unstable environment should result in a
cluster of storms capable of water-loaded downbursts. A Slight Risk
has been added for the region where the greatest storm coverage is
expected.

...Northern Plains...
The ridge across the Plains will start to break down on Sunday with
a lee cyclone developing across eastern Montana. Moderate to strong
instability will be present across the northern Plains, potentially
with some stronger mid-level flow as the ridge breaks down. Storms
will be possible along the trough from eastern Wyoming into northern
Colorado, along the warm front near the Canadian border and into
northern North Dakota, and extending into western Minnesota, and
northwest of the low across eastern Montana where some instability
is expected to develop. Within this broader area, there will likely
be a few preferred zones that will eventually need a Slight Risk.
However, at this time, it is unclear where these preferred zones
will be. Greater resolution of the pattern evolution should make
these regions more clear in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 09/04/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 06:39:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 050639
SWODY3
SPC AC 050637

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

...Nebraska into the Dakotas and Minnesota...

An upper shortwave trough will eject east/northeast from the
Intermountain West to the northern Plains on Monday. Strong
mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the region ahead of the
trough. At the surface, a low over eastern MT will develop northeast
into the Canadian Prairies, and a trailing cold front will push east
across portions of NE/SD/ND. A moist airmass will be in place ahead
of the front, promoting areas of moderate instability. Vertically
veering wind profiles, and strengthening midlevel southwesterly
flow, will generate effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt,
supporting organized thunderstorms. While cooling aloft will result
in modestly steep lapse rates, warmer temperatures may linger around
850 mb, leading to capping concerns. Nevertheless, even elevated
storms will pose a risk for hail, and depending on storm mode,
strong wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 19:46:54 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 051945
SWODY3
SPC AC 051944

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

... Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes ...

A mid-level shortwave trough will lift northeast on Monday,
impinging on the central US ridge. Strong southwesterly mid-level
flow associated with the trough will overspread an increasingly warm
and moist low-level airmass across the north-central US. Given
low-level flow will be more southerly, the resulting vertically
veering profiles will result in effective shear ranging from 35
knots to more than 50 knots. Forecast soundings indicate that an
elevated mixed layer should advect over the Plains during the day
resulting in capping issues for most of the afternoon. However, as
cooler mid-level temperatures overspread the unstable and sheared
airmass, afternoon thunderstorms will at least be possible. These
storms should pose a threat for large hail and, if the storms can
tap into the boundary layer, strong thunderstorm winds. As the
low-level jet increases during the evening, an increase in storm
coverage is expected, with perhaps one or more MCSs evolving across
portions of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Isolated large hail
and perhaps damaging winds will be possible.

..Marsh.. 09/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 06:23:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 060622
SWODY3
SPC AC 060621

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into
the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will move from the northern Plains to the Great
Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a swath of enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread the Upper Midwest. At the
surface, low pressure over Manitoba will continue east/northeast
through the period, with a trailing cold front sweeping east across
the northern/central Plains and Upper MS Valley. A moist airmass
will be in place ahead of the front, and weak to moderate
destabilization is forecast. Deep-layer flow will largely remain
parallel to the surface boundary, but sufficient shear will be
present for some storm organization. The north and east extent of
severe potential is a bit uncertain given concern over
inhibition/timing and modest instability. However, given the
strength of deep-layer southwesterly flow, some severe risk should
extend along the length of the surface front from the Upper Midwest
into the central Plains. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary
concern with this activity from late afternoon into the nighttime
hours.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 19:28:00 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 061927
SWODY3
SPC AC 061926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into
the Upper Midwest.

... Central Plains to the Upper Midwest ...

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of
the Upper Midwest at the start of the forecast period. These storms
will be primarily driven by strong warm-air advection along and
ahead of a surface cold front moving east across the region in
association with a short-wave trough moving across the southern
Canadian Prairies. These morning storms may pose a marginal risk for
hail and wind before weakening during the day as the low-level jet
veers and weakens.

In the wake of the morning convection, diurnal heating of a moist
airmass south of the residual surface boundary will result an
unstable airmass by late afternoon. Large scale forcing for ascent
along the boundary will be nebulous so local-scale processes will
likely govern if and where afternoon storms may develop. Vertical
shear decreases with southward extent, but a threat of large hail
and damaging winds will be possible with any afternoon
thunderstorms.

By late evening into the overnight another short-wave trough will
quickly race east into the Plains. In response to this feature, the
low-level jet will once again increase, providing some forcing for
ascent along isentropic surfaces along and north of the front. These
storms should be able to tap into elevated instability and
sufficient cloud-layer shear to support a threat for isolated wind
and hail overnight.

..Marsh.. 09/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 06:36:52 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 070636
SWODY3
SPC AC 070635

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the Midwest on Wednesday.

...Midwest...

An upper trough will progress eastward across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow over the region. At the
surface, a cold front will shift southeast through the period,
becoming positioned from the Upper Ohio Valley to the TX Panhandle
by Thursday morning. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in
place. Midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly
steep, but pockets of weak to moderate instability are forecast,
particularly across the Lower MO Valley into OH. Morning showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of the cold
front from Iowa into Lower MI. As the front progresses southeast
through the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorm
development is expected across the destabilizing warm sector.

Deep-layer flow is expected to largely remain parallel to the
surface boundary. This environment should largely favor a more
linear storm mode and convection could become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized
convection and damaging winds appear possible within corridors of
greater instability into Wednesday evening/early Thursday.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 18:46:44 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 071846
SWODY3
SPC AC 071845

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

...Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley...
Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s
and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks
on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate
instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the
strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall
severe weather threat does not appear likely.

...Upper Ohio Valley into New York...
A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on
Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread
the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused
south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability
across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be
present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow
and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat,
but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support
isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may
exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.

..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 18:50:26 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 071849
SWODY3
SPC AC 071848

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

CORRECTED FOR MISSING HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

...Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley...
Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s
and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks
on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate
instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the
strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall
severe weather threat does not appear likely.

...Upper Ohio Valley into New York...
A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on
Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread
the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused
south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability
across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be
present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow
and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat,
but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support
isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may
exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.

..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:33:22 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 080632
SWODY3
SPC AC 080632

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

...Discussion...

An upper trough will migrate across the Northeast on Thursday, while
a second upper trough digs southward across the northwestern U.S.
Stronger flow associated with these features will remain confined to
the northern Rockies vicinity and over New England. High pressure
will build over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region in the wake of a
prior cold frontal passage. A seasonally moist boundary layer will
be in place from the central/southern High Plains through the southern/southeastern U.S. Pockets of stronger heating and modest destabilization across the warm sector will support scattered
thunderstorm development. However, generally weak vertical shear
will limit organized severe potential, especially given a lack of
focus for severe storm development.

The exception may be with a strong storm or two across the
central/southern High Plains in a post-frontal upslope flow regime.
A stalled front will become diffuse across the area on Thursday, but
vertically veering wind profiles could result in some modestly
enhanced vertical shear. Some guidance shows early day convection
and cloud cover across this area, resulting in uncertainty in storm
coverage during the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, lapse rates
will remain modest and low-level flow will be weak, precluding
severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 18:50:32 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 081850
SWODY3
SPC AC 081849

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

...Discussion...
As a mid-level trough moves into the western Atlantic on Thursday,
surface high pressure will build into the Midwest/Great Lakes in its
wake. South of this high pressure center a front will extend from
Virginia to the central Plains. An expansive area of precipitation
is expected along this front at the beginning of the period which
should result in lesser instability, particularly east of the
Appalachians. Farther west, moderate instability is expected near
the front from the Lower Ohio Valley to the southern High Plains.
Mid-level flow (and thus deep-layer shear) will be weak across much
of this zone. Therefore, greater instability and storm clustering
will likely be necessary for a marginal severe weather threat. This
may occur across portions of the Ozarks or the southern High Plains,
but the signal is weak at this time. Therefore, no severe weather
probabilities are warranted.

A mid-level trough will translate quickly eastward across the
Northwest on Thursday with ascent overspreading north-central
Montana by Thursday night. A few fast-moving storms are expected
across north-central Montana late Thursday night and early Friday
morning amid weak instability. Despite the dynamic system, weak
instability and unfavorable diurnal timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 06:25:50 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 090625
SWODY3
SPC AC 090624

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 07:00:56 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 090700
SWODY3
SPC AC 090659

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 19:32:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 091932
SWODY3
SPC AC 091930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Discussion...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains on
Friday, as an upper low drops south along the Pacific Northwest. A
pre-frontal trough will develop into northern MN, extending into
eastern SD and central NE by late afternoon. Ahead of this trough,
strong heating will occur from NE into SD, with a cooler boundary
layer into central MN.

Temperatures aloft will cool with the upper wave, resulting in
moderately steep lapse rates aloft. Midlevel wind speeds of 20-40
kt, combined with low-level southerlies (including 40 kt at 850 mb
late in the day) will favor a few supercells initially before storms
become linear along the advancing cold front.

Forecast soundings indicate large hail will be likely with the
initial cellular activity, though shear in the mid to upper levels
will not be particularly strong. As such, will not add any sig
hatching for hail.

A brief tornado may occur with initial supercells, particularly from
eastern SD into western MN where low-level shear will be strongest.
Otherwise, damaging winds will be possible through the evening as
storms move northeast across MN.

..Jewell.. 09/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 20:22:20 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 092022
SWODY3
SPC AC 092020

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Discussion...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains on
Friday, as an upper low drops south along the Pacific Northwest. A
pre-frontal trough will develop into northern MN, extending into
eastern SD and central NE by late afternoon. Ahead of this trough,
strong heating will occur from NE into SD, with a cooler boundary
layer into central MN.

Temperatures aloft will cool with the upper wave, resulting in
moderately steep lapse rates aloft. Midlevel wind speeds of 20-40
kt, combined with low-level southerlies (including 40 kt at 850 mb
late in the day) will favor a few supercells initially before storms
become linear along the advancing cold front.

Forecast soundings indicate large hail will be likely with the
initial cellular activity, though shear in the mid to upper levels
will not be particularly strong. As such, will not add any sig
hatching for hail.

A brief tornado may occur with initial supercells, particularly from
eastern SD into western MN where low-level shear will be strongest.
Otherwise, damaging winds will be possible through the evening as
storms move northeast across MN.

..Jewell.. 09/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 06:27:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 100626
SWODY3
SPC AC 100625

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

...Central Plains to southern IA/northern MO...

Broad upper troughing will overspread the Great Lakes to the
Northeast while shortwave upper ridging develops over the high
Plains ahead of another upper trough moving into the Northwest. This
pattern is will keep any stronger westerly flow aloft across the
northern tier of the U.S. However, a cold front is expected to
extend from the western Great Lakes into northern KS by midday. The
front will gradually move south/southeast across IA into northern
MO, while the western extent of the boundary stalls and weakens over
KS. A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface
boundary from KS into the Mid-MS Valley while a plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates spread eastward across the region. This will
result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability from central
KS into southern IA/northern MO. Vertical shear will be modest, but
sufficient for at least transient organized convection. Hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop
within the weakly forced regime along the front. Some guidance
suggests additional convection may develop along the stalled
boundary across KS during the nighttime hours as a southwesterly
low-level jet increases. If this occurs, some potential for MCS
development will exist.

..Leitman.. 09/10/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 19:04:28 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 101904
SWODY3
SPC AC 101903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

...Discussion...
A large upper low/trough will progress eastward across northern
Manitoba and Ontario, with stronger flow aloft over the Northern
Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Much of that area will become stable
due to high pressure building southward into NE/IA.

The wind shift with the associated cold front will push into KS and
northern MO, beneath the southern fringe of the 30 kt midlevel
westerlies. At the surface, strong heating will occur south of the
cold front, with gradual height rises.

While predictability is low, isolated strong to perhaps severe
storms cannot be ruled out near the cold front where mid 60s F
dewpoints will persist, and CIN should be minimal at peak heating.
MUCAPE of 2000+ J/kg seems reasonable, and the steep lapse rate
profiles along with winds lightly veering with height should support
locally strong to severe gusts with multicellular storm mode. It is
uncertain how many storms may form due to the upper ridging.

..Jewell.. 09/10/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

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