ACUS11 KWNS 092148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092148
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-092345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of the southern/central Great Plains into
the Lower Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 092148Z - 092345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging/severe wind gusts will remain possible
through this evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along a convectively reinforced surface cold front extending from just south
of Kansas City, MO, into the TX/OK Panhandles. The environment
along/ahead of this boundary is characterized by 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE and very steep low-level lapse rates (>9 C/km), with surface temperatures commonly in the low 100s F. Deep-layer flow/shear
remains weak, with regional VWPs generally sampling 20-25 kts or
less through the column. This should continue to promote a
pulse-severe storm mode, with the potential for isolated
damaging/severe wind gusts to accompany stronger downdraft (as
evidenced by a recently measured 72 mph gust in the northern Texas
Panhandle).

The exception is across portions of west-central MO, where locally
greater convective coverage is noted in closer proximity to stronger
mid-level westerlies and in the vicinity of a weak surface low.
Stronger effective shear (30-40 kts) coupled with marginally greater
buoyancy (up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may support a somewhat more
well-organized cluster that would evolve eastward into west-central
MO. Recent HRRR/RRFS explicit wind gust forecasts suggest some
potential exists for isolated gusts up to 55-65 mph.

The overall severe risk is expected to remain relatively isolated,
however, precluding the need for watch issuance.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 09/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_E9xjHzE18XJK3pJrk41WcsXmKsu7SXCSd8UW0kgLL_CwOe_eZyHrTmlM_A4xI7LOnTn3zktPWAqH70CevfxhK-OW0M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36779983 37009912 37379794 37749679 38029622 38269592
38559571 38669560 38879487 38899389 38789356 38619312
38409305 38179302 38019315 37909333 37749362 37679383
37639397 36929585 36209816 35909927 35839986 35870013
35990028 36190037 36450025 36670008 36779983

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)