409
AXNT20 KNHC 071818
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 7 2026

Corrected Caribbean Sea forecast

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1653 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 27W, south of 12N, moving westward at
15 to 20 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough, from 04N to
07N between 23W and 29W.

A tropical wave is along 37.5W, south of 16.5N, moving westward
at around 15 kt. A few showers are noted on either side of the
wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 65W, south of
18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 71W, south
of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is enhancing
convection over portions of western Venezuela, including the Lake
Maracaibo area.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 85.5W,
south of 20N to across western Panama and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean, slowly moving around 5 kt. Most of the convection
related to this wave is over the EPAC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W
Africa near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 04N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N49W.
Other than the convection associated with two tropical waves, a
large area of moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
near the coast of W Africa, covering the waters from 01N to 11.5N
and east of 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure located over the western Atlantic just E of Bermuda
extends a ridge across the SE of United States, including
Florida, into the Gulf region. This system is supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds east of 89W, along with seas 1 to 4 ft.
While moderate to locally fresh SE winds along seas 4 to 6 ft
prevail west of 89W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are
depicted west of 94W.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the
eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western
Gulf through Mon. Winds will be easterly at mostly fresh speeds
across most of the western and central Gulf S of 26N through
midweek. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a
diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh,
occasionally strong, during the evenings through Wed. Slight to
moderate seas will occur with these winds. For late in the week, a
possible trough, or low pressure may shift northward from the
Yucatan Peninsula into the south-central Gulf of America
accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh
to strong winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details,
including any associated significant convection.

Otherwise, high pressure north of the area centered just E of
Bermuda, combined with lower pressures across South America
supports moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds and
moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the exception
of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted. An
upper level trough over the central Caribbean is helping to induce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Windward
Passage, between Haiti and Jamaica, and over the central
Caribbean south of 17N between 68W and 82W. Elsewhere, patches of
low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted
producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will persist across the Caribbean today as Atlantic high pressure
weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin to increase again over
the central Caribbean late tonight into Mon, and over the NW part of
the basin Mon night into Tue as the pressure gradient tightens
between the Atlantic high pressure and a broad area of low pressure
located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE winds may be present in the
northwestern Caribbean Wed through Thu as a possible trough, or low
pressure shifts northward from the Yucatan Peninsula into the south-
central Gulf of America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the western coast
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section for more details including any related significant
convection.

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from
near 31N56W to the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. Scattered
to numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are along and
ahead of this trough, affecting the SE Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. A 1022 mb high pressure located just E of Bermuda
follows this trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb
high pressure situated SW of the Azores near 34N33W. Under the
influence of this system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is
seen N of 20N E of the trough to about 44W. Fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds and rough seas are found north of 20N and
east of 44W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are
between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will remain
nearly stationary through Mon night. A weak cold front will move
into the forecast north-central waters Tue, then stall near 27N
Tue through Wed, and gradually dissipate by Thu. High pressure
will follow the front. It will be centered near Bermuda by Wed,
then move eastward by Thu. This weather pattern will generally
support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas through
midweek, except for moderate to fresh trades S of 22N between the
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola and westward to the waters
between the Bahamas and Cuba.


$$
KRV

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