578
WTNT32 KNHC 200846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED TO MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Alabama Gulf coast
from the Florida border to the Mississippi border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the MS/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located by aircraft reconnaissance near latitude 28.5 North,
longitude 85.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest
near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected during
the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or
west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along
the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Aircraft data indicates that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1006 mb (29.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by tonight into Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1 to 3 ft
Mobile Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 6 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


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