200
WTNT42 KNHC 202048
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The earlier aircraft mission into the depression found a minimum
central pressure of 1005 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 34
kt. ASCAT data from the western part of the circulation showed
winds below 35 kt, and the latest satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB was 30 kt. Based on these, the depression has not yet reached tropical-storm strength and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The low-level center has been moving erratically most of the day,
but the overall motion seems to be 305/3 kt. There is again little
change in the track forecast reasoning. The depression is in light
steering currents between two mid-level ridges, one to its
northwest centered over the central U. S. and one to its southeast
centered near the Bahamas. The U. S. ridge is expected to become a
little more dominant of a steering feature as it builds eastward.
The guidance is in overall agreement that the cyclone should move
slowly northwestward to west-northwestward for 36 h or so, followed
by a turn toward the west. However, there is some spread in the
guidance in the first 36-48 h about how close the center comes to
the northern Gulf Coast and how sharp the westward turn would be.
The new forecast track lies between these two clusters of models and
is a little to the north of the previous track. It should be noted
that strong northeasterly shear is forecast over the cyclone, which
could keep the center south of the forecast track due to the
effects of convective bursts. However, there are models such as the
ECMWF and Canadian that bring the system inland on the northern
Gulf coast.

The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and
these conditions should continue for another 18-24 h. It is likely
that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center
during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a
tropical storm. After that, the northeasterly shear should
increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to
destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt intensification and then cause weakening. The new intensity
forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 h, and this is at
the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The new forecast also
calls for the system to weaken to a remnant low by 120 h, and based
on the dynamical model guidance there is a possibility it
could dissipate between 72-120 h due to shear and land interaction.

It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give
the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the
rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the
center.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from
the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana Tuesday
and Wednesday.

2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi,
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm
surge is possible.

3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for
portions of that area tonight or Tuesday.

4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the
Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida north
of Fort Myers to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions
of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 28.7N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 29.6N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 29.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 25/1800Z 29.4N 96.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


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