WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 28.7N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.1N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.8N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.8N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 30.5N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 33.7N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 127.3E.
04SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134
NM NORTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

From WDPN31:
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 22W HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AND WILL TURN
EQUATORWARD IMMINENTLY AS A RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST CHINA BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 IN
RESPONSE. AT THAT TIME, TS 22W WILL TURN EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE CYCLONIC CAULDRON OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH SOUTH OF HONSHU. BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 72, A STR EAST OF
HONSHU WILL STEER TS 22W POLEWARD. AFTER TAU 96, AN APPROACHING
TROUGH NEAR HONSHU WILL FLATTEN THE STR, ALLOWING FOR THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO CARRY THE CIRCULATION EASTWARD. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION
OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W, ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH TS 22W
AND THE SURROUNDING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND THE EFFECTS OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ON THE STR. A WEAKER OR MORE RAPIDLY ERODING STR
COULD RESULT IN AN EARLIER EASTWARD TURN TOWARD THE KANTO PLAIN,
WHILE A STRONGER RIDGE WOULD SUPPORT A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE
40-KT FORECAST INTENSITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TS 22W AND THE NORTHEASTERLY COOL
SURGE. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS THE SURGE EASES AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. AS TS 22W WEAKENS TO 30 KTS, IT WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER SHEAR AND HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KTS FOR
A TIME AS IT MIXES OUT THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIR AND REORGANIZES ITS
INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. IF SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION OCCURS, SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM MAY BENEFIT FROM ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AHEAD OF A PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
//
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