WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 018
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.8N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.5N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.7N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.2N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.5N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 128.5E. 05SEP26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z,
060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//

From WDPN31:
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
WEST AND SLOWER AFTER TAU 72.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS
TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 24, WHERE THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
JAPAN. AFTER TAU 24, 22W WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 96. 22W WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN KYUSHU AND THEN TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD ONCE
IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS IN
OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 22W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE
EFFECTS OF THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A SHALLOWING VORTEX WILL
CAUSE 22W TO WEAKEN. AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAP
INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HOWEVER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GREATLY INCREASE, PREVENTING ANY
REDEVELOPMENT. AROUND TAU 96, THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY START TO
STRETCH AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY EARLIER DISSIPATION THAN IS DEPICTED IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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