WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 25.7N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 131.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.8N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.3N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.0N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 32.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.3N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 131.3E. 06SEP26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z,
070900Z AND 071500Z.//

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 22W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. 22W WILL THEN TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD, ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU
48, THE TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN
INCREASING SPEED OF ADVANCE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. 22W IS FORECAST TO SKIRT
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN AFTER TAU 60 WITH THE REMNANT VORTEX
PASSING SOUTH OF KYOTO, AROUND TAU 72. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 22W
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KTS THROUGH TAU
48 UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. WHILE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED TO WORSEN, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE DUE
TO THE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO A JET STREAK EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN
HONSHU. AFTER TAU 48, SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL GREATLY INCREASE,
CAUSING 22W TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN JAPAN. DISSIPATION IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR AT AROUND TAU 72, AS THE SHALLOW VORTEX ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE
SHIKOKU AND KANSAI REGIONS.

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