WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 31.9N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.6N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.8N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 133.6E.
08SEP26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
153 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 22W HAS STARTED ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD TURN
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO ROUND THE STR. NEAR TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF JAPAN, NEAR THE SHIKOKU AND KANSAI REGIONS WITH INCREASING
TRACK SPEEDS. 22W WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED BY THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS HONSHU, CAUSING
THE CIRCULATION TO BECOME STRETCHED AND LIKELY MOVE UNPREDICTABLY.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 22W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST DUE PRIMARILY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 40 KTS). ONCE THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAPAN, 22W WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 24.
EVEN THOUGH THE VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH 22W LIKELY BECOMES ABSORBED
WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED WINDS MAY
PERSIST IN AREAS SUCH AS WAKAYAMA BAY AND ISE BAY DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC
FUNNELING EFFECTS.

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