075
WTNT45 KNHC 220848
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026
500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that some renewed convection has
developed over the northern and western portions of Josephine's
circulation during the past several hours. An earlier Metop-C
scatterometer pass revealed a large and asymmetric wind field, with
a band of 45-50 kt winds wrapping around the western side of the
circulation and a radius of maximum winds near 60 n mi. Based on
these data and steady trends in the objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 55
kt.

Josephine has turned toward the northeast and accelerated since the
previous advisory, with the initial motion now estimated at 040/11
kt. The cyclone should continue accelerating northeastward and then east-northeastward today as a potent upper-level trough digs
southeastward from Quebec toward the Canadian Maritimes and the
northeastern United States. This trough is forecast to amplify and
eventually close off over the northern Atlantic by early Friday. As
Josephine becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the
system should turn eastward on Friday and continue moving eastward
through the weekend, passing well south of Newfoundland. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is
very similar to the previous prediction, with a slight leftward
adjustment, reflecting a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Josephine is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics later
today or by tonight as it moves over cooler waters and interacts
with the approaching upper-level trough. However, some additional
strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h due to baroclinic
processes and a positive interaction with the advancing trough as
the cyclone accelerates northeastward. The NHC forecast continues to
show Josephine becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone
within 24 h. Gradual weakening is expected thereafter as the system
moves eastward across the North Atlantic. Global model guidance
indicates that Josephine should eventually open into a trough as it
becomes absorbed into a larger mid-latitude system, with dissipation
expected by day 4. Given Josephine's expected extratropical
transition, the NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above a blend
of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Since the coastal wind hazards associated with this system have been
covered for the last several days through non-tropical products
issued by local National Weather Service offices, those products
will remain in effect until the threat diminishes and Josephine
moves farther away from the U.S. coast over the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 38.7N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
12H 22/1800Z 39.8N 66.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
24H 23/0600Z 41.5N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/1800Z 43.2N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0600Z 43.9N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/1800Z 44.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0600Z 43.8N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
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