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  • STRMDISC: Post-tropical Cyclone Imelda Discussion Number 24

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Thu Oct 2 14:48:36 2025
    920
    WTNT44 KNHC 021448
    TCDAT4

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Discussion Number 24
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
    1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

    Imelda is no longer a tropical cyclone. Visible satellite images and
    global model fields indicate that a front extends into the center of
    the cyclone from the east-northeast, while another frontal feature
    has developed to the south of the cyclone. This is consistent with
    overnight microwave data that showed Imelda taking the appearance of
    an occluded cyclone, as well as recent satellite trends that show
    the remaining convection is mainly focused along these fronts.
    Therefore, Imelda is classified as a 65-kt extratropical cyclone
    this morning, and this will be the final NHC advisory on the system.

    Post-tropical Imelda is racing toward the east-northeast (075/25
    kt) away from Bermuda. The cyclone is expected to turn northeastward
    on Friday ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough over the
    northern Atlantic, then turn back toward the east-northeast by
    Sunday within the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in
    much better agreement than yesterday, and the NHC forecast lies near
    the center of the envelope between the HCCA and TVCA aids.

    Baroclinic forcing from the upper trough will likely cause the
    cyclone to remain a large, storm-force low through the weekend. Even
    though the peak winds are forecast to gradually diminish, a large
    area of 34- and 50-kt winds will create hazardous marine conditions
    and large swell that will continue to affect an expansive portion of
    the western and central Atlantic.

    Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
    the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
    header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. Gusty winds over Bermuda will gradually subside today.

    2. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
    dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
    Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
    several days.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 02/1500Z 33.2N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 03/1200Z 36.3N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 04/0000Z 38.9N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 04/1200Z 41.7N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    60H 05/0000Z 44.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 05/1200Z 47.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 06/1200Z 50.0N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart


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