797
WTNT35 KNHC 081451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...JERRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 52.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 52.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A
turn toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed
is expected late Thursday into Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with
local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward
Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from
Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


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