1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER.TROPIC

  • ADVISORY: Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6a

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Wed Oct 8 23:54:34 2025
    675
    WTNT35 KNHC 082354
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
    800 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

    ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE
    STRONGER...
    ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...


    SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...14.9N 55.4W
    ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
    * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
    * Sint Maarten
    * Saba and St. Eustatius
    * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

    Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
    British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
    Jerry.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
    located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
    14.9 North, longitude 55.4 West. Jerry is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and and this general motion is
    expected to continue through Thursday. A northwestward motion at a
    slower forward speed should begin Thursday night, followed by a
    northward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track,
    the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of
    the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

    Aircraft dropsonde data indicates that maximum sustained winds have
    increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
    strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could
    become a hurricane late this week or this weekend.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
    from the center.

    The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve
    dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
    Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
    WTNT45 KNHC.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
    northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
    Friday.

    RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with
    local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward
    Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from
    Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a
    risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
    and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
    Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.

    A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
    Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin


    = = = = = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at [email protected] and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)