645
WTNT45 KNHC 100855
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry is still a disorganized tropical storm. The cloud pattern
remains sheared, with deep convection displaced to the south and
east of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft fixes and recent
satellite images suggest the center could be becoming elongated, and
dropsonde data indicated the central pressure was gradually rising
during the previous mission. The storm has not become any better
organized since that time, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt
based on a blend of the earlier aircraft wind data and more recent
satellite intensity estimates. Although the center of Jerry is
passing north of the Leeward Islands, radar data show that heavy
rainfall continues across much of the region, leading to an
increased threat of flash flooding. Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Jerry.

The storm is moving toward the northwest (315/15 kt), but a
northward turn is expected by tonight as Jerry moves along the
western extent of a subtropical ridge and pulls away from the
islands. This northward motion should continue through the weekend,
keeping the center of Jerry well to the southeast of Bermuda on
Sunday. The latest track guidance is in fairly good agreement on
this part of the forecast, and little change was made to the NHC
prediction, which lies near HCCA and the Google DeepMind mean. By
early next week, Jerry is forecast to turn northeastward and
eastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. This part of the track
forecast is more uncertain, as greater spread is noted in the models
regarding how quickly Jerry becomes captured within this flow.
During this period, the updated NHC forecast is slower and slightly
south of the previous one, following the latest multi-model
consensus trends.

Jerry has been unable to develop a more coherent structure over the
past couple of days within a moderate to strong northwesterly shear environment. Given its current appearance and the continued shear,
little strengthening is expected in the near term. In fact, the
latest intensity guidance has trended downward, and some models
suggest Jerry may not strengthen at all going forward. Since there
are indications in the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS that the shear
could lessen a bit over the weekend, the updated NHC forecast shows
some modest strengthening, but Jerry is no longer predicted to
become a hurricane. This forecast still lies on the high end of the
guidance, so future downward adjustments could be necessary if
Jerry continues to struggle.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, could still affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this morning. These
conditions are expected to subside later today as Jerry moves away
from the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 19.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 20.9N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 23.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 30.5N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 31.6N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 31.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 31.5N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


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