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  • ADVISORY: Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 13

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Fri Oct 10 14:41:42 2025
    669
    WTNT35 KNHC 101441
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
    1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

    ...JERRY'S CENTER PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    BUT FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.2N 63.4W
    ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM S OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
    located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 63.4 West. Jerry is
    moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
    the north is expected by this evening, with that motion continuing
    through Sunday. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is
    forecast Sunday night and Monday.

    Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter and satellite-derived wind data
    indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during
    the next few days.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
    to the east of the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
    Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
    WTNT45 KNHC.

    RAINFALL: Through today, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across
    the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin
    Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a
    risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep
    terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry
    may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches
    possible.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
    Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
    likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater
    Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local
    weather office for more information.

    A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
    Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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