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  • STRMDISC: Post-tropical Cyclone Karen Discussion Number 4

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Fri Oct 10 20:32:50 2025
    745=20
    WTNT41 KNHC 102032
    TCDAT1
    =20
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Discussion Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
    900 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025
    =20
    Convection associated with Karen has dissipated this evening,=20
    leaving the system a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The cyclone=20
    will be moving over even colder waters of the North Atlantic during=20
    the next 12 to 24 hours, and organized convection is not expected to=20
    return. Therefore, Karen has lost its designation as a subtropical=20
    cyclone, and this will be the last NHC advisory. The initial=20
    intensity remains 40 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. The low should=20 gradually weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is expected=20
    to open up into a trough and be absorbed by an approaching frontal=20
    system in 24 to 36 hours.

    The low is moving north-northeastward or 025 degrees at 14 kt. The=20
    system should continue to accelerate north-northeastward ahead of=20
    an approaching deep-layer trough through Saturday. The updated NHC=20
    track forecast is once again similar to the previous forecast and=20
    near the center of the guidance envelope.=20

    This is the last NHC advisory on Karen. Additional information on=20
    this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo=20
    France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.l= fpw..txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7oy2wfqAk1l4y1UriUGzSk26phFMZV_7kf9TLwvoD4724WyA5Go-uTH= 92W2YOthNST0SLPDBf4e8SIG9GtkExrsQmRo$=20
    =20
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    =20
    INIT 10/2100Z 47.5N 30.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 11/0600Z 49.4N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    24H 11/1800Z 53.5N 27.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    =20
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    =20

    =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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