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  • ADVISORY: Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 14

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Fri Oct 10 20:34:50 2025
    477
    WTNT35 KNHC 102034
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 14
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
    500 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

    ...JERRY'S TRAILING BANDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.5N 63.6W
    ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM S OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
    located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 63.6 West. Jerry is
    moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
    toward the north is expected by tonight, with that motion
    continuing through Saturday night. A northeastward to eastward
    motion is forecast Sunday and Monday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
    to the east of the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
    Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
    WTNT45 KNHC.

    RAINFALL: Through tonight, 2 to 4 inches of additional rain are
    expected across the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands. The
    additional heavy rainfall will maintain a risk of flash flooding,
    especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. Moisture associated
    with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in an
    additional 2 to 4 inches of rain as well across eastern Puerto Rico.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
    Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican
    Republic and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the
    Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas tonight and on Saturday.
    Please consult products from your local weather office for more
    information.

    A depiction of rip current risk for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
    Islands can be found at:
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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