584
WTNT45 KNHC 110240
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry's low-level circulation remains rather ill-defined especially
on the northwest side of the cyclone, where a surface trough extends northwestward from Jerry. The SHIPS guidance is showing about 15-20
kt of northwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear in Jerry's
environment, which is displacing convection to the southeast of the
center. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are
still occurring over the Virgin Islands, but the rainband that was
producing the persistent heavy rain over the northeastern Caribbean
Islands has weakened from earlier and is starting to move away. A
recent ASCAT pass shows maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity
has been raised to 50 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher
than the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. The tropical-storm-force
winds are limited to the eastern semicircle of Jerry.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 350 degrees at 13 kt.
This general motion should continue through Saturday night because a north-south-oriented mid-level ridge is currently located to the
east of the cyclone. By Sunday night, Jerry should turn eastward as
it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. Only minor
adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which
generally lies in between the simple and corrected consensus models.

Jerry is likely to continue battling moderate to strong shear during
the next couple of days, and global model fields (with the exception
of the GFS) suggest that the storm will maintain an elongated
circulation through this period. Although the shear might decrease
a bit after 48 hours, at that point Jerry will be moving over more
marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
environment. No changes were made to the previous NHC intensity
forecast, which is near, or slightly below the middle of the
guidance envelope. The global model fields (with the exception of
the GFS) show Jerry interacting with a front by Sunday night, and
the NHC forecast shows Jerry becoming post-tropical by Monday
evening, with dissipation along the front a day or two later. The
GFS maintains Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that
solution is considered an outlier.

It should be noted that the circulation of Jerry is quite
ill-defined on the northwest side. Therefore, it is possible that
Jerry could dissipate at any time this weekend. However, given that
most of the global and regional models hold on to the circulation
into Sunday, the most likely scenario seems to be that Jerry will
stick around for at least another 2 days or so until it begins
interacting with the front.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Jerry will lift north of the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico overnight. As a result, the risk for
flash flooding will diminish.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Bahamas by Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 22.7N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 24.6N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.4N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 32.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 31.4N 56.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/0000Z 29.8N 51.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


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