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  • FORECAST: Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast/advisory Number 2

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Mon Oct 13 14:51:07 2025
    233
    WTNT22 KNHC 131450
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
    1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.2W AT 13/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT.......140NE 130SE 0SW 90NW.
    4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.2W AT 13/1500Z
    AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.8W

    FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 42.7W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.2N 44.1W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.2N 44.9W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.4N 44.9W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.9N 43.5W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.7N 41.2W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.4N 34.4W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 31.8N 29.8W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 41.2W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

    $$
    FORECASTER HAGEN



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