On 10/29/25 11:22, Tom Elam wrote:
On 10/28/2025 1:15 PM, Alan wrote:
On 2025-10-28 03:06, -hh wrote:
On 10/27/25 08:08, Tom Elam wrote:
In the past both Alan Baker has stated that Vancouver BC high
housing prices are an indication of high housing demand because
it's an attractive place to live...
My home state of Indiana?
Gosh golly: comparing a city to State.
Care to tell us what State has a higher homeless rate than its major
cities?
Does the asshole care to tell us what the overnight low temperatures
are during winters in Indiana vs those in Vancouver?
Why this post? Just to piss off Alan.
What it really does is show that you're a butthurt troll luzer.
But there IS substance here too.
U.S. source
https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/Causes-and-Solutions-to-
Homelessness.pdf
"The primary solution to homelessness...
Wrong question.
Canadian source:
"A critical shortage of housing that is affordable, safe and stable
directly contributes to homelessness...
Again, wrong question.
Blaming climate is at best a deflection, at worst an outright lie.
Nowhere in either source is weather mentioned.
Try searching on the point being raised, instead of your agenda:
"is climate a factor in where homeless people congregate?"
"Abstract
It is widely understood that climate affects the spatial distribution of homelessness—warm places have on average higher rates of unsheltered homelessness than cold places."
"Conventional wisdom among local officials and experts in cities with
warm climates is that warm temperatures are major draws for homeless individuals.[1]
Similarly, research has generally affirmed that homelessness, and particularly the unsheltered type, is more common in warmer areas."
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1051137717302231>
"On the Relationship Between Climate and Homelessness
Abstract
It is well understood that unsheltered homelessness is on average more common in communities with warmer climates. In this paper, we show that
cold places uniformly have low rates of unsheltered homelessness, while
warm places display wide variation."
<https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/homelessness-climate- update.pdf>
Since your career was as a consultant that required research, your unwillingness to acknowledge this factor speaks volumes:
have you had significant cognitive decline to have missed such an clear association?
Or were you never really good at your job?
Or worse yet, did you know better anyway, as you you were only being
hired because you'd deliver the conclusion that the customer wanted,
even if it wasn't truthful?
"Choose your poison."
-hh
On 10/29/25 11:22, Tom Elam wrote:
On 10/28/2025 1:15 PM, Alan wrote:
On 2025-10-28 03:06, -hh wrote:
On 10/27/25 08:08, Tom Elam wrote:
In the past both Alan Baker has stated that Vancouver BC high
housing prices are an indication of high housing demand because
it's an attractive place to live...
My home state of Indiana?
Gosh golly: comparing a city to State.
Care to tell us what State has a higher homeless rate than its major
cities?
Does the asshole care to tell us what the overnight low temperatures
are during winters in Indiana vs those in Vancouver?
Why this post? Just to piss off Alan.
What it really does is show that you're a butthurt troll luzer.
But there IS substance here too.
U.S. source
https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/Causes-and-Solutions-to-
Homelessness.pdf
"The primary solution to homelessness...
Wrong question.
Canadian source:
"A critical shortage of housing that is affordable, safe and stable
directly contributes to homelessness...
Again, wrong question.
Blaming climate is at best a deflection, at worst an outright lie.
Nowhere in either source is weather mentioned.
Try searching on the point being raised, instead of your agenda:
"is climate a factor in where homeless people congregate?"
"Abstract
It is widely understood that climate affects the spatial distribution of homelessness—warm places have on average higher rates of unsheltered homelessness than cold places."
"Conventional wisdom among local officials and experts in cities with
warm climates is that warm temperatures are major draws for homeless individuals.[1]
Similarly, research has generally affirmed that homelessness, and particularly the unsheltered type, is more common in warmer areas."
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1051137717302231>
"On the Relationship Between Climate and Homelessness
Abstract
It is well understood that unsheltered homelessness is on average more common in communities with warmer climates. In this paper, we show that
cold places uniformly have low rates of unsheltered homelessness, while
warm places display wide variation."
<https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/homelessness-climate- update.pdf>
Since your career was as a consultant that required research, your unwillingness to acknowledge this factor speaks volumes:
have you had significant cognitive decline to have missed such an clear association?
Or were you never really good at your job?
Or worse yet, did you know better anyway, as you you were only being
hired because you'd deliver the conclusion that the customer wanted,
even if it wasn't truthful?
"Choose your poison."
-hh
On 10/30/2025 6:24 AM, -hh wrote:
Or were you never really good at your job?
Or worse yet, did you know better anyway, as you you were only being
hired because you'd deliver the conclusion that the customer wanted,
even if it wasn't truthful?
"Choose your poison."
-hh
So explain how Mississippi has the lowest homeless rate of 33 per
100,000 in the country while cold Indiana is about 3x that rate.
On 10/30/2025 6:24 AM, -hh wrote:
Since your career was as a consultant that required research, your
unwillingness to acknowledge this factor speaks volumes:
have you had significant cognitive decline to have missed such an clear
association?
Or were you never really good at your job?
Or worse yet, did you know better anyway, as you you were only being
hired because you'd deliver the conclusion that the customer wanted,
even if it wasn't truthful?
"Choose your poison."
-hh
Correlation is not causation.
Halley's Comet was closest to the Earth
the day Samuel Langhorne Clemens was born and the day he died. Was he a
child of the comet?
Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on July 4,
1826. Did the 50th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence kill
them both?
I am a keen student of cause and effect. You apparently are not.
So why is housing generally less affordable on the coasts and in
moderate climates.
Searched "Causes of Homelessness in America". None mentioned weather.
Housing is less affordable in places that are attractive to live. You
are the one who is guilty of looking for confirmation.
Homelessness is multifaceted. However, every one of these citations
below state that housing affordability is the #1 driver of homelessness.
It's no accident that homelessness is significantly higher in a city--
where a 500 square foot condo has a market value that is the same as
2500 square foot home in the U.S. Midwest.
https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2025/we-can-end-homelessness-in-america
https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2023/08/22/how-housing-costs-drive-levels-of-homelessness
https://endpovertynowinc.org/blog/10-causes-of-homelessness-in-america/
https://endhomelessness.org/overview/
https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/Causes-and-Solutions-to-Homelessness.pdf
https://homelesslaw.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Homeless_Stats_Fact_Sheet.pdf
https://www.aclu.org/documents/fact-sheet-state-of-homelessness-in-the-us
On 10/29/25 11:22, Tom Elam wrote:
On 10/28/2025 1:15 PM, Alan wrote:
On 2025-10-28 03:06, -hh wrote:
On 10/27/25 08:08, Tom Elam wrote:
In the past both Alan Baker has stated that Vancouver BC high
housing prices are an indication of high housing demand because
it's an attractive place to live...
My home state of Indiana?
Gosh golly: comparing a city to State.
Care to tell us what State has a higher homeless rate than its major
cities?
Does the asshole care to tell us what the overnight low temperatures
are during winters in Indiana vs those in Vancouver?
Why this post? Just to piss off Alan.
What it really does is show that you're a butthurt troll luzer.
But there IS substance here too.
U.S. source
https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/Causes-and-Solutions-to-
Homelessness.pdf
"The primary solution to homelessness...
Wrong question.
Canadian source:
"A critical shortage of housing that is affordable, safe and stable
directly contributes to homelessness...
Again, wrong question.
Blaming climate is at best a deflection, at worst an outright lie.
Nowhere in either source is weather mentioned.
Try searching on the point being raised, instead of your agenda:
"is climate a factor in where homeless people congregate?"
"Abstract
It is widely understood that climate affects the spatial distribution of homelessness—warm places have on average higher rates of unsheltered homelessness than cold places."
"Conventional wisdom among local officials and experts in cities with
warm climates is that warm temperatures are major draws for homeless individuals.[1]
Similarly, research has generally affirmed that homelessness, and particularly the unsheltered type, is more common in warmer areas."
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1051137717302231>
"On the Relationship Between Climate and Homelessness
Abstract
It is well understood that unsheltered homelessness is on average more common in communities with warmer climates. In this paper, we show that
cold places uniformly have low rates of unsheltered homelessness, while
warm places display wide variation."
<https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/homelessness-climate- update.pdf>
Since your career was as a consultant that required research, your unwillingness to acknowledge this factor speaks volumes:
have you had significant cognitive decline to have missed such an clear association?
Or were you never really good at your job?
Or worse yet, did you know better anyway, as you you were only being
hired because you'd deliver the conclusion that the customer wanted,
even if it wasn't truthful?
"Choose your poison."
-hh
On Nov 3, 2025 at 4:12:27 PM MST, "Tom Elam" wrote <10ebcsp$37pld$[email protected]>:
On 10/30/2025 6:24 AM, -hh wrote:
...
Or were you never really good at your job?
Or worse yet, did you know better anyway, as you you were only being
hired because you'd deliver the conclusion that the customer wanted,
even if it wasn't truthful?
"Choose your poison."
-hh
So explain how Mississippi has the lowest homeless rate of 33 per
100,000 in the country while cold Indiana is about 3x that rate.
Mississippi puts little effort into counting their homeless, and few shelters and the like to help with that count. They do also have very low housing costs
compared to many states.
But Mississippi also has the highest poverty rates, one of the lowest median household income, highest rates of obesity and diabetes and infant mortality, is near the bottom ranking in education, and the social services and mental health services are more limited than most states.
On 11/3/2025 7:06 PM, Brock McNuggets wrote:
On Nov 3, 2025 at 4:12:27 PM MST, "Tom Elam" wrote
<10ebcsp$37pld$[email protected]>:
On 10/30/2025 6:24 AM, -hh wrote:
...
Or were you never really good at your job?
Or worse yet, did you know better anyway, as you you were only being
hired because you'd deliver the conclusion that the customer wanted,
even if it wasn't truthful?
"Choose your poison."
-hh
So explain how Mississippi has the lowest homeless rate of 33 per
100,000 in the country while cold Indiana is about 3x that rate.
Mississippi puts little effort into counting their homeless, and few shelters
and the like to help with that count. They do also have very low housing costs
compared to many states.
But Mississippi also has the highest poverty rates, one of the lowest median >> household income, highest rates of obesity and diabetes and infant mortality,
is near the bottom ranking in education, and the social services and mental >> health services are more limited than most states.
It's a multifaceted issue with no easy solution.
Texas also had a very
low homeless rate, but much better off than Mississippi. Also much more urban.
I grew up just north of the Tennessee/Mississippi border. When
comparisons were made our mantra as "Thank God for Mississippi!"
On 10/30/2025 6:24 AM, -hh wrote:
On 10/29/25 11:22, Tom Elam wrote:
On 10/28/2025 1:15 PM, Alan wrote:
On 2025-10-28 03:06, -hh wrote:
On 10/27/25 08:08, Tom Elam wrote:
In the past both Alan Baker has stated that Vancouver BC high
housing prices are an indication of high housing demand because
it's an attractive place to live...
My home state of Indiana?
Gosh golly: comparing a city to State.
Care to tell us what State has a higher homeless rate than its
major cities?
Does the asshole care to tell us what the overnight low temperatures
are during winters in Indiana vs those in Vancouver?
Why this post? Just to piss off Alan.
What it really does is show that you're a butthurt troll luzer.
But there IS substance here too.
U.S. source
https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/Causes-and-Solutions-to-
Homelessness.pdf
"The primary solution to homelessness...
Wrong question.
Canadian source:
"A critical shortage of housing that is affordable, safe and stable
directly contributes to homelessness...
Again, wrong question.
Blaming climate is at best a deflection, at worst an outright lie.
Nowhere in either source is weather mentioned.
Try searching on the point being raised, instead of your agenda:
"is climate a factor in where homeless people congregate?"
"Abstract
It is widely understood that climate affects the spatial distribution
of homelessness—warm places have on average higher rates of
unsheltered homelessness than cold places."
"Conventional wisdom among local officials and experts in cities with
warm climates is that warm temperatures are major draws for homeless
individuals.[1]
Similarly, research has generally affirmed that homelessness, and
particularly the unsheltered type, is more common in warmer areas."
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1051137717302231>
"On the Relationship Between Climate and Homelessness
Abstract
It is well understood that unsheltered homelessness is on average more
common in communities with warmer climates. In this paper, we show
that cold places uniformly have low rates of unsheltered homelessness,
while warm places display wide variation."
<https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/homelessness-climate-
update.pdf>
Since your career was as a consultant that required research, your
unwillingness to acknowledge this factor speaks volumes:
have you had significant cognitive decline to have missed such an
clear association?
Or were you never really good at your job?
Or worse yet, did you know better anyway, as you you were only being
hired because you'd deliver the conclusion that the customer wanted,
even if it wasn't truthful?
"Choose your poison."
-hh
Now you are depending on narrowing the scope to sheltered versus unsheltered, a different argument and a goalpost shift. But your
argument falls totally apart when you look across the entire U.S.
Weather is far from a consistent variable in explaining total homeless rates/capita.
I never said weather cannot ever be a factor.
I looked at total
homelessness in my original post. How do you explain dramatically lower TOTAL homeless rates across the southern states from Florida to Arizona
than is the case in California Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Maine,
Vermont and New York? Mississippi, with low household income and a nice
warm climate, at 3.3, has the lowest rate/10,000 in the country. Why?
Could housing affordability be an important independent variable?
Your argument that weather is a consistent factor in total homeless rate across the country falls apart.
So you think you know stats?
Here is a problem for you. I have been
tracking my electric use in this total electric home since 2010. Just
for fun I built a regression model. It explains 96.5% of the variation
in monthly average kWh per day billed.
On October 1, 2024 we replaced our heat pump. I want to know if it made
a difference in power use. The company that sold it to us claimed it
would, but power savings were not the primary reason for the replacement.
First, here are few facts:
Use depends on weather, temperature to be precise, but is not linear.
Why is it not linear?
A graph of local temps and kWh/day:Well, I'd not pick linear, as the upward curve on the right is increased demand from air conditioning.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qSiDqfp_ldcEDeovUIdkhHAV8JwsKafZ/view? usp=sharing
How would you specify the functional form? Linear (Y = a + bX) will not
work nearly as well as other functional forms. The linear R^2 is only 71%.
How would you correct for increasing variance (heteroskedasticity) as temperature falls? Why is this important?
Why do you think there are 4 major outliers?What actual proof do you have that there's four?
What other factors would you look for other than temperature? Hint, a
much better nonlinear functional form using only temperature explains
only 87% of dependent variable variation, about 10 points short with
other independent variables included.
How would you determine if the new heat pump is more efficient or not at
the 95% confidence level?
Thanks to a new smart thermostat installed with the new heat pump I also
now have monthly heat pump run time data from last October to date. How would you specify a regression between run time and kWh billed? Think
it's linear or not? What interesting result might you see?
I await your answers. Functional form is the easiest, but not obvious.
When you respond I'll share the actual equations based on 1/1/2010 to date.
On 11/4/25 14:45, Tom Elam wrote:
On 10/30/2025 6:24 AM, -hh wrote:
On 10/29/25 11:22, Tom Elam wrote:
On 10/28/2025 1:15 PM, Alan wrote:
On 2025-10-28 03:06, -hh wrote:
On 10/27/25 08:08, Tom Elam wrote:
In the past both Alan Baker has stated that Vancouver BC high
housing prices are an indication of high housing demand because >>>>>>> it's an attractive place to live...
My home state of Indiana?
Gosh golly: comparing a city to State.
Care to tell us what State has a higher homeless rate than its
major cities?
Does the asshole care to tell us what the overnight low
temperatures are during winters in Indiana vs those in Vancouver?
Why this post? Just to piss off Alan.
What it really does is show that you're a butthurt troll luzer.
But there IS substance here too.
U.S. source
https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/Causes-and-Solutions-to-
Homelessness.pdf
"The primary solution to homelessness...
Wrong question.
Canadian source:
"A critical shortage of housing that is affordable, safe and stable
directly contributes to homelessness...
Again, wrong question.
Blaming climate is at best a deflection, at worst an outright lie.
Nowhere in either source is weather mentioned.
Try searching on the point being raised, instead of your agenda:
"is climate a factor in where homeless people congregate?"
"Abstract
It is widely understood that climate affects the spatial distribution
of homelessness—warm places have on average higher rates of
unsheltered homelessness than cold places."
"Conventional wisdom among local officials and experts in cities with
warm climates is that warm temperatures are major draws for homeless
individuals.[1]
Similarly, research has generally affirmed that homelessness, and
particularly the unsheltered type, is more common in warmer areas."
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/
S1051137717302231>
"On the Relationship Between Climate and Homelessness
Abstract
It is well understood that unsheltered homelessness is on average
more common in communities with warmer climates. In this paper, we
show that cold places uniformly have low rates of unsheltered
homelessness, while warm places display wide variation."
<https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/homelessness-climate-
update.pdf>
Since your career was as a consultant that required research, your
unwillingness to acknowledge this factor speaks volumes:
have you had significant cognitive decline to have missed such an
clear association?
Or were you never really good at your job?
Or worse yet, did you know better anyway, as you you were only being
hired because you'd deliver the conclusion that the customer wanted,
even if it wasn't truthful?
"Choose your poison."
-hh
Now you are depending on narrowing the scope to sheltered versus
unsheltered, a different argument and a goalpost shift. But your
argument falls totally apart when you look across the entire U.S.
Weather is far from a consistent variable in explaining total homeless
rates/capita.
Nope.
I never said weather cannot ever be a factor.
You implied it by focusing only on housing costs.
I looked at total homelessness in my original post. How do you explain
dramatically lower TOTAL homeless rates across the southern states
from Florida to Arizona than is the case in California Oregon,
Washington, Nevada, Maine, Vermont and New York? Mississippi, with low
household income and a nice warm climate, at 3.3, has the lowest
rate/10,000 in the country. Why? Could housing affordability be an
important independent variable?
Sounds like you didn't even bother to read the cite I provided.
Your argument that weather is a consistent factor in total homeless
rate across the country falls apart.
Fortunately, I wasn't claiming that it is a *consistent* factor, merely
that it was a factor. As per my cite, one can see that it is consistent within certain contexts though.
So you think you know stats?
Don't need to make that personal claim to note where another person's alleged numbers go sideways.
Here is a problem for you. I have been tracking my electric use in
this total electric home since 2010. Just for fun I built a regression
model. It explains 96.5% of the variation in monthly average kWh per
day billed.
On October 1, 2024 we replaced our heat pump. I want to know if it
made a difference in power use. The company that sold it to us claimed
it would, but power savings were not the primary reason for the
replacement.
First, here are few facts:
Use depends on weather, temperature to be precise, but is not linear.
Why is it not linear?
For a variety of factors besides just temperature, which you're trying
to pretend you actually know. Offhand, I can think of at least three, which I've happened to have noticed in my own bill without charts, which indicates they're not significantly lower-order variables.
A graph of local temps and kWh/day:Well, I'd not pick linear, as the upward curve on the right is increased demand from air conditioning.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qSiDqfp_ldcEDeovUIdkhHAV8JwsKafZ/
view? usp=sharing
How would you specify the functional form? Linear (Y = a + bX) will
not work nearly as well as other functional forms. The linear R^2 is
only 71%.
How would you correct for increasing variance (heteroskedasticity) as
temperature falls? Why is this important?
By not using a univariant model.
Why do you think there are 4 major outliers?What actual proof do you have that there's four?
My eyeball sees two likely ones, probably one more, but one needs to run
a formal test with criteria to correctly assess this. Plus after one accounts for both first & second order factors (& known nonlinearities), there very well may be zero outliers actually present.
What other factors would you look for other than temperature? Hint, a
much better nonlinear functional form using only temperature explains
only 87% of dependent variable variation, about 10 points short with
other independent variables included.
As I said, I have some factors that on a first principles standpoint
must be variance contributors to your model. It seems that you've not figured them out and are trolling for free assistance, because you're
only thinking in two dimensional space instead of more (eg, multivariate).
T stat and P value for a 0,1 constant level adjuster. Where 0 = no newHow would you determine if the new heat pump is more efficient or not
at the 95% confidence level?
With your present data, I wouldn't bother: it has too much noise from ~second order variables that you've failed to control for. One doesn't bother with the likes of a Student t until the data's clean enough to be useful. So the first real step would be to build a better model on the legacy data to replace your trash. FYI, the t was from William Gosset,
as he was working for Guinness & couldn't publish under his own name.
Thanks to a new smart thermostat installed with the new heat pump I
also now have monthly heat pump run time data from last October to
date. How would you specify a regression between run time and kWh
billed? Think it's linear or not? What interesting result might you see?
Since you're ignoring several contributing variables (hence your high variance), what you'll have will be noisy & uninteresting trash.
I await your answers. Functional form is the easiest, but not obvious.
When you respond I'll share the actual equations based on 1/1/2010 to
date.
At which point I may note for myself what variables you've ignored, and which I may or may not bother to post...you going to pay my consulting fee?
-hh
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